Jimmy!

New Orleans Saints All-Pro tight end Jimmy Graham reached a 4 year/$40 million ($21 million guaranteed) agreement with the team Tuesday morning. The announcement came just hours before the 3:00 p.m. C.D.T. deadline for Franchise tagged players to either reach a long term agreement with their team, agree to the franchise tender salary for their positions, or elect not to play in the upcoming NFL season. Graham's franchise tender was $7 million, all of which would have counted against the Saints' 2014 salary cap had Graham played under those terms.

This worked out well for the Saints in the short run. They have their big playmaker at a reasonable salary that will not blow up their 2014 salary cap. Jimmy Graham (86 rec., 1,215 yds., 16 TDs in 2013) is taking a calculated risk on himself, a well calculated risk.

This four-year contract is going to either expire at a point of his career - 8 years in - when teams will either overbid for his services or the Saints, perhaps a year prior to expiration, will be put into a position in which they have to overpay because they need to restructure his contract. Either way, Graham comes out on top. This second career windfall would be predicated on Graham remaining healthy and productive, at a level near the top of NFL tight ends.

Thanks to the No Fun League, Saints fans won't be treated to all of Graham's talents next year.

Image from www.espn.com

Retweet of the Day - January 13, 2014

While the NFL has whittled down its remaining playoff teams to four, there has been other news affecting teams that didn't make the Conference Championship round this season. Coaching changes are rampant. And of course, teams are resigning their most coveted free agents to be before they hit the open market.

The Chicago Bears resigned quarterback Jay Cutler earlier this month. Cutler may not have the most sparkling personality and has yet to get the Bears past the NFC Championship Game, but his talent is undeniable. The Bears were starved at the QB position for more than two decades before Cutler's arrival. Resigning him was a no brainer.

Not everyone shares this opinion thought. Today's retweet, from Not Bill Walton (@NotBillWalton) illustrates a different point of view on Cutler's potential:

"Bears sign Jay Cutler for 7 more years. Sounds less like an NFL contract and more like bad luck for breaking a mirror."

That's harsh!

Image from www.memegenerator.net

Retweet of the Day - March 4, 2013

Baltimore Ravens quarterback and Super Bowl XLVII Most Valuable Player Joe Flacco signed a new contract that will make him a very wealthy man. The six year, $121 million contract is reportedly the most lucrative in NFL history. With that new found wealth, Flacco can afford the luxuries and frivolities that many f us would not consider purchasing with a mere working person's salary.

One premium product I never purchased were the rookie cards of high profile athletes (I either got then in my packs or didn't get them at all). Rookie cards for a garden variety star easily sell for upwards of $100. Sure fire Hall of Famers...upwards of $500 and so on. Today's retweet is from Blaise Miller (@BlaiseInKC), reminding us of how precious a coveted rookie card can be.

"@jimrome "First thing I bought with my new contract? A Joe Flacco rookie card." - Joe Flacco"

"I'm riiiiiich!"

Image from www.twitter.com

Saints Alive!

In case you've been in a cave today, today's big news is that record breaking New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees signed a 5 year, $100 million extension with the team today. It ended speculation of the possibility of a holdout by Brees heading into training camp.

Saints fans everywhere are breathing a sigh of relief. So today's chick pic is of someone I am sure is happy, Saintsation Danielle D. Danielle was on the dance squad during the 2009 season, when the Saints won the Super Bowl.

Feeling a "Brees" through those long golden strands of hair....

Keeping the black and gold spirit at the beach....

White is in the Saints' color scheme, too!

I love a woman who can be herself at home.

And she models?

The Saints made Drew Brees' day. Thanks for making ours, Danielle! WHO DAT!

All images from http://www.bustedcoverage.com

Drew-whewwww Dat!

Actually, this is a group of Saints fans immediately following former Saint Tracy Porter's pick six in Super Bowl XLIV, but I think the Who Dats feel similarly today. 1

Saints fans can breathe a collective sigh of relief. This afternoon, ESPN reported that Drew Brees and the Saints have reached a long term agreement. Christmas is un-cancelled. The sun will not rise in the West in the Big Easy. Mardi Gras is officially back on!

The Saints and Brees came to terms on a five year, $100 million contract. The deal offers Brees $60 million in guarantees over the first three years of the agreement. Brees’ total salary in 2012: a cool $40 million. Saints fans can rest easy as the Who Dat Nation got their good news a couple of days earlier than I expected.

If only Jonathan Vilma can get his suspension blocked in court….

Is that confetti or cash raining behind Brees? 2

 
1) Image from http://sports.espn.go.com
2) Image from www.whig.com

Who Dat? Not Drew Dat….

1

The Who Dat Nation is on Terror Alert Orange this week. ESPN’s Chris Mortenson recently cited sources close to the contract negotiations between Brees and the New Orleans Saints saying that Drew Brees will not report to training camp if he and the Saints do not have a long-term deal in place by Monday, July 16. Because Brees is an Exclusive Rights Franchise Player, under the NFL’s collective bargaining agreement there must be a new contract in place by that July 16 deadline or Brees must play under the terms of a one year, $16 million Franchise tender. Brees has stated that he won’t sign such a deal.


NOT A GAME OF CHICKEN

Regular readers know that I am from New Orleans and that I’m a Saints fan. I am not losing sleep over this. In common terms, I don’t think either side is so stupid that they’ll screw this up.

I don’t have sources at the NFL level. I am not an insider. I am not a journalist. I’m a blogger. But I do have common sense and I am familiar with how negotiations work. When I was in business school, one of my favorite classes was Negotiations. To this day, I can hear Professor Danos explaining the concept of BATNA to us: Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement. The more details of the Brees negotiations that are made public, the more I can hear my professor.


WHO’S SWINGING THE BIGGER BATNA?

This is where we are. The Saints have offered Brees a five year deal worth $96 million. As is, this deal would make Brees the highest paid player in NFL history, richer than Peyton Manning.

Reportedly, Brees wants $102.5 million over the same period of time. So Brees wants an additional $6.5 million over the life of the contract. I am not privy to the bonus structure offers, but, consistent with the trends I have observed, another $6.5 million over the life of the contract probably amounts to another $3 million in guarantees money, give or take.

I am going to guess, based on the market, that Brees’ guarantees on the table are between $40 million and $45 million. Should Brees not agree to the Saints offer, he can sign a one year Franchise tender for $16 million guaranteed or sit the season out, get a year older, and get nothing. Brees BATNA is about $25 million - $45 million less in guarantees and the possibility of earning no income and losing a year of his career.

Saints Head Coach Sean Payton and starting middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma are suspended for the entire 2012 season for their roles in the Bountygate scandal. Also due to Bountygate, Assistant Head Coach Joe Vitt is suspended for the first six games of the season and former Pro Bowl defensive end Will Smith is suspended for the first four games. General Manager Mickey Loomis is suspended for eight games because of the scandal. All Pro guard Carl Nicks left the team via free agency.

This just in: the Saints 2012 season is already in the crapper. They aren’t going to the Super Bowl. They aren’t going to contend for the Super Bowl. The Atlanta Falcons are in the driver’s seat in the 2012 NFC South race. The Saints will be likely competing with the likes of the Carolina Panthers, Dallas Cowboys, and Chicago Bears for a Wild Card spot if this season is “successful” under the circumstances.

The Saints BATNA is that the 2012 season sucks worse than it already will, they SAVE $16 million in cold, hard cash (and/or cap room), slap the franchise tag on Brees again after 2013 (obligating the Saints to pony up $23 million in guaranteed money in 2013), and start the process all over again with more leverage than this year because Brees will be a year older and have been out of football for a year.

How big is Brees' "BATNA"? 2

WHAT ARE THEY FIGHTING FOR?

So Brees, who is in his mid-30s, stands to lose mid-eight figures in guaranteed cash and possibly lose a year of his career. He stands to gain about $3 million and possibly some structural concessions over the life of a five year deal. Relative to $40-something million in hand with potential earnings of $96 million, it does not seem like much.

The Saints are at risk, should Brees refuse to play, from having a season in which they will be Super Bowl “longshots” to just plain “sucking”. They stand to save $16 million during a season in cash, cap space, or some combination thereof. They will put themselves in the position of having to go through the same exercise next year. By not adding the extra $6.5 to Brees’ five year deal, the Saints will likely have a bit more salary cap flexibility than they would otherwise.

I think, again, that the Saints have the advantage. When you have nothing, you have nothing to lose. The Saints, after all of those suspensions to key personnel, have very little to lose this year. Brees, on the other hand, is a professional athlete. His shelf life is limited and he is about to enter the twilight of his career within the next three years.

The Saints only have so much to lose.

WHY HE WILL SIGN AT THE VERY LAST MINUTE

From my point of view, the Saints have offered Brees a very lucrative contract, most money in NFL history. Brees is not going to lose that over $1.5 million additional dollars per year. Still, the Saints need Brees and want him to be happy. The Saints could bend on one concession here and a few hundred thousand dollars per year there.

If Brees signs the dotted line this very second, he is guaranteed to get nothing more than what has been offered. If he waits until Monday morning, the Saints may toss in a few extras. The offer will not be withdrawn between now and then, so why not try to get a little more? During the time in between there is no harm to him in waiting. Fans like myself and people in Saints management may be nervous, but Brees has no cause for alarm.

When Brees signs his contract, it will be big news. ESPN will have the blow-by-blow and Saints fans will breathe a sigh of relief. I’lll be getting exactly what I expect…WHEW!

Don't forget to vote in the fan polls!

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1) Image from www.historycommons.org and www.sportslogos.net
2) Image from www.tigerdroppings.com

No, Les Miles is NOT Getting Fired

Here in Baton Rouge, LA, there are two camps among fans regarding LSU Head Football Coach Les Miles, heading into his sixth year on the job: the "Miles Haters" and the "Miles Lovers"

The Miles Haters believe that Miles is a bumbling idiot who had a championship team fall into his lap. they believe that the team was so talented, when Nick Saban left to coach the NFL's Miami Dolphins in 2004, that it could coach itself and recruit on its own reputation, with no input from the head coach. Nick Saban created a perfectly well oiled machine that could run on its own...until game day...but only the game days in which LSU lost. If LSU won, credit goes to Nick Saban. The National Championship in 2007 was dumb luck and Miles really didn't earn it, whatever that means.

The Miles Lovers think the Miles made the program better by building on Nick Saban's success and progress. Miles Lovers often play the "character card"- Nick Saban bolted the second he saw greener pastured and ran back, to an SEC rival, no less, as soon as the heat got hot in the NFL whereas Miles turned down what may have been his "dream job" at his Alma Mater, the University of Michigan, to finish what he started.

I was in the Miles Lover club until last year and I seriously call his effectiveness in managing a game into question. While I'd like to see a superior replacement, I don't think such a replacement is on the market. Even if that person is on the market, I believe that the cost to let go of miles and his staff at any time prior to the final year of his contract may be too costly. I do not believe that a financial machine like LSU's Athletic Department is going to hemorrhage cash just to satisfy loud and angry fans that want to go unbeaten and win another championship yesterday.

LSU cannot afford that buyout (which is still eight figures - almost $10 million after this season, greater at any time prior to December 31) AND pay a new, comparable coach (probably someone in the $3-$5 million annual range) AND buy out the coaching staff AND hire a new staff (net cost of the staffs could be around $4 million). I don't think LSU is too cheap to pay for what it wants in that athletic department, but a firing, buyout, and subsequent rehiring would cause a hemorrhage of funds that I could afford to absorb unless the program completely collapsed.

In other words, if Les Miles only wins 8 games - disappointing and below expectations for all of us - people are STILL going to pay TAF fees, people are still going to renew their season tickets to the tune of 90-something percent. People are STILL going to watch on TV. LSU is STILL going to get a seven figure payday from a Bowl game. There is only so much potential monetary upside between 8 wins and a BCS appearance. And that potential would be completely offset by firing the whole staff and buying everyone out.

Then if you do go that route you'd BETTER make sure you bring in someone who gets to the BCS the next year or you've essentially lost money.

So if next year is anything like last year - 9 wins, ranked, and a close loss in a New Years Day bowl game to a top 10 opponent, he isn't going anywhere.

Now if you'll excuse me, I have to balance my...DAMN STRONG checkbook! Have a nice day!