Who Dat? Not Drew Dat….

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The Who Dat Nation is on Terror Alert Orange this week. ESPN’s Chris Mortenson recently cited sources close to the contract negotiations between Brees and the New Orleans Saints saying that Drew Brees will not report to training camp if he and the Saints do not have a long-term deal in place by Monday, July 16. Because Brees is an Exclusive Rights Franchise Player, under the NFL’s collective bargaining agreement there must be a new contract in place by that July 16 deadline or Brees must play under the terms of a one year, $16 million Franchise tender. Brees has stated that he won’t sign such a deal.


NOT A GAME OF CHICKEN

Regular readers know that I am from New Orleans and that I’m a Saints fan. I am not losing sleep over this. In common terms, I don’t think either side is so stupid that they’ll screw this up.

I don’t have sources at the NFL level. I am not an insider. I am not a journalist. I’m a blogger. But I do have common sense and I am familiar with how negotiations work. When I was in business school, one of my favorite classes was Negotiations. To this day, I can hear Professor Danos explaining the concept of BATNA to us: Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement. The more details of the Brees negotiations that are made public, the more I can hear my professor.


WHO’S SWINGING THE BIGGER BATNA?

This is where we are. The Saints have offered Brees a five year deal worth $96 million. As is, this deal would make Brees the highest paid player in NFL history, richer than Peyton Manning.

Reportedly, Brees wants $102.5 million over the same period of time. So Brees wants an additional $6.5 million over the life of the contract. I am not privy to the bonus structure offers, but, consistent with the trends I have observed, another $6.5 million over the life of the contract probably amounts to another $3 million in guarantees money, give or take.

I am going to guess, based on the market, that Brees’ guarantees on the table are between $40 million and $45 million. Should Brees not agree to the Saints offer, he can sign a one year Franchise tender for $16 million guaranteed or sit the season out, get a year older, and get nothing. Brees BATNA is about $25 million - $45 million less in guarantees and the possibility of earning no income and losing a year of his career.

Saints Head Coach Sean Payton and starting middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma are suspended for the entire 2012 season for their roles in the Bountygate scandal. Also due to Bountygate, Assistant Head Coach Joe Vitt is suspended for the first six games of the season and former Pro Bowl defensive end Will Smith is suspended for the first four games. General Manager Mickey Loomis is suspended for eight games because of the scandal. All Pro guard Carl Nicks left the team via free agency.

This just in: the Saints 2012 season is already in the crapper. They aren’t going to the Super Bowl. They aren’t going to contend for the Super Bowl. The Atlanta Falcons are in the driver’s seat in the 2012 NFC South race. The Saints will be likely competing with the likes of the Carolina Panthers, Dallas Cowboys, and Chicago Bears for a Wild Card spot if this season is “successful” under the circumstances.

The Saints BATNA is that the 2012 season sucks worse than it already will, they SAVE $16 million in cold, hard cash (and/or cap room), slap the franchise tag on Brees again after 2013 (obligating the Saints to pony up $23 million in guaranteed money in 2013), and start the process all over again with more leverage than this year because Brees will be a year older and have been out of football for a year.

How big is Brees' "BATNA"? 2

WHAT ARE THEY FIGHTING FOR?

So Brees, who is in his mid-30s, stands to lose mid-eight figures in guaranteed cash and possibly lose a year of his career. He stands to gain about $3 million and possibly some structural concessions over the life of a five year deal. Relative to $40-something million in hand with potential earnings of $96 million, it does not seem like much.

The Saints are at risk, should Brees refuse to play, from having a season in which they will be Super Bowl “longshots” to just plain “sucking”. They stand to save $16 million during a season in cash, cap space, or some combination thereof. They will put themselves in the position of having to go through the same exercise next year. By not adding the extra $6.5 to Brees’ five year deal, the Saints will likely have a bit more salary cap flexibility than they would otherwise.

I think, again, that the Saints have the advantage. When you have nothing, you have nothing to lose. The Saints, after all of those suspensions to key personnel, have very little to lose this year. Brees, on the other hand, is a professional athlete. His shelf life is limited and he is about to enter the twilight of his career within the next three years.

The Saints only have so much to lose.

WHY HE WILL SIGN AT THE VERY LAST MINUTE

From my point of view, the Saints have offered Brees a very lucrative contract, most money in NFL history. Brees is not going to lose that over $1.5 million additional dollars per year. Still, the Saints need Brees and want him to be happy. The Saints could bend on one concession here and a few hundred thousand dollars per year there.

If Brees signs the dotted line this very second, he is guaranteed to get nothing more than what has been offered. If he waits until Monday morning, the Saints may toss in a few extras. The offer will not be withdrawn between now and then, so why not try to get a little more? During the time in between there is no harm to him in waiting. Fans like myself and people in Saints management may be nervous, but Brees has no cause for alarm.

When Brees signs his contract, it will be big news. ESPN will have the blow-by-blow and Saints fans will breathe a sigh of relief. I’lll be getting exactly what I expect…WHEW!

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Trust Us!

Tennessee Titans all-world running back Chris Johnson, for the second year in a row, is holding out from training camp over a contract dispute. Last season, Johnson was earning a mid-range six figure salary and the Titans more than tripled it to over $2 million, with the understanding that if he had another spectacular season, such as the 2,000 yard rushing season he had in 2009, the organization would be open to renegotiating his contract.

Johnson on both feet while three New York Jets defenders behind him, with two clinging, in vein, to bring Johnson down. 4

Sixteen hundred yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns later, Johnson has already held up his end of the bargain. Johnson has proven that he is the most explosive, productive, and (to an opposing defense) lethal running back in football. He wants to get paid, to the tune of eight figures in guaranteed money and being among the highest paid players, running back, quarterback or otherwise, in the NFL.

Two Houston Texans defenders drag Johnson to the ground. They're on the ground; he's not. 3

Regardless of your point of view about whether Johnson should honor his current contract, which I think is a joke, there are only three possible outcomes. The first is Johnson does not play and holds out indefinitely, which he appears prepared to do. The second is that Tennessee renegotiates Johnson’s contract to Johnson’s liking and Johnson plays. The third is unlikely: the Titans have asked Johnson to come to camp and have promised to make Johnson the highest paid running back in the league when he arrives.


CARROT AND STICK

It is the third option that we are going to contrast with the “real world” today. Sports often parallel real life. The notion that Johnson would come to camp, effectively giving up his negotiating leverage for this season, and expect to gain the best possible outcome for himself is laughable, and Johnson and his agent know it. Johnson has more than outplayed his contract for three years in a row, at a position in which he is either at or close to the halfway point in his career as an impact playmaker.

So today, The Daily Hat Trick is going to play out some “what if” scenarios. You, the reader, can decide if you would take a leap of faith into the arms of your employer, under the circumstances. Just remember that “trust me” is a phrase among the most famous last words spoken by men.


SALES

Boss: You’ve done an outstanding job the last few years, Peterson, far better than any one man in our industry! We promised to pay you the highest salary of any salesman in the company, last year, and we meant it! All we need you to do is come in and start working these high priority accounts. As soon as you start doing that, we’ll take goooood care of you.

Peterson: “Take care of me”? What does that mean?

Boss: We going to offer you a new contract that we think you deserve.

Peterson: Well, why can’t you offer that to me now, before I come in and start doing work, which profits you?

Boss: Either way, you have a contract, so you might as well get to work! Don’t worry! The money will follow. I promise. Trust me!

Peterson: But we I agreed I wouldn’t work this contract anymore. Once I start working the accounts, I can’t just stop. Why don’t we take care of the salary issue right now?

Boss: No, no, no! It is our company’s firm policy to not renegotiate any current contract with anyone unless he’s is actively working.

Peterson: Don’t you make all of the policies?

Boss: Peterson, I can’t change the rules! I just think them up, and then write them down. Don’t worry! I’ve got your best interests at heart.

Would you take that deal if you could work for anyone you wanted to? I didn’t think so.

Peterson was born during the day, not yesterday. 1

PARENTING

Dad: JOEY! We had a deal, remember? If I raised your allowance to more than any other kid in the neighborhood, you would mow the front and back yards every week, not every other week. All you did, AGAIN, was mow the front yard. And you didn’t even do it last week!

Joey: Let’s be reasonable, Dad. I started mowing the front yard almost every week. I know you’re giving me $51 a week, one dollar more than Michael down the street, but I expected a little more. If you can give me $60 a week, starting today, I’ll mow the front and back yards immediately after. Trust me, Dad. Just trust me!

Any of you guys ever have the stones to try a stunt like that with your old man? If you did, did it work? No, I thought not.  

"C'mon, pops! TRUST ME!"
Doesn't this kid just look like the type to give it a try? 2


CRIME FIGHTING

Detective: Listen, Jones, we had a DEAL! I would look the other way if I caught you with pot, again, if you dropped a dime on the dealers when you knew something. I have looked the other way even when you came into the police station reeking of the stuff. Now I come to your house and you’ve replaced your Bermuda grass with…well…the other “grass”! Now I want a name and I want it NOW!

Jones: Hey maaan. Chill out! Okay duuude? Tell you what, I know you could arrest me whenever you want, but why don’t you just bring be a baggie and some rolling papers, maaan, and I’ll give you TWO names. Trust me, duuude!

How many of you think Jones won’t be wearing the silver bracelets if he doesn’t start singing like a canary on the first day of spring?

"What bong?" 6

STAND YOUR GROUND, CHRIS

Chris Johnson is making the right move. He needs the Titans FAR less than they need him. To those of you who are thinking, “If I did that at my job, I’d be fired in a heartbeat,” (I always expect emails and comments like that on this topic every time)…to those who think that, remember that you are probably replaceable at your job. Chris Johnson is not.

In addition, the Titans would make Chris Johnson’s day by “firing” him. Should the Titans release Johnson, which will not happen outside of Johnson’s pipe dreams, he would become a free agent and roughly 25 of the NFL’s 30 teams, including the Titans, would be taking a number to throw insane sums of money at him, probably more than he is asking for from the Titans.

In the end, the Titans will either have to pay the man or try to save the money by allowing Johnson to hold out indefinitely, which would make them so bad in 2011 that they might be able to draft the best running back available in the 2012 draft.

The Titans can do the math. 5 

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to advertise with The Daily Hat trick, or to submit a guest column, please contact the editor at eric@thedailyhattrick.info.

1) Image from thebossshow.com
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