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NOT A GAME OF CHICKEN
Regular readers know that I am from New Orleans and that I’m a Saints fan. I am not losing sleep over this. In common terms, I don’t think either side is so stupid that they’ll screw this up.
I don’t have sources at the NFL level. I am not an insider. I am not a journalist. I’m a blogger. But I do have common sense and I am familiar with how negotiations work. When I was in business school, one of my favorite classes was Negotiations. To this day, I can hear Professor Danos explaining the concept of BATNA to us: Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement. The more details of the Brees negotiations that are made public, the more I can hear my professor.
WHO’S SWINGING THE BIGGER BATNA?
This is where we are. The Saints have offered Brees a five year deal worth $96 million. As is, this deal would make Brees the highest paid player in NFL history, richer than Peyton Manning.
Reportedly, Brees wants $102.5 million over the same period of time. So Brees wants an additional $6.5 million over the life of the contract. I am not privy to the bonus structure offers, but, consistent with the trends I have observed, another $6.5 million over the life of the contract probably amounts to another $3 million in guarantees money, give or take.
I am going to guess, based on the market, that Brees’ guarantees on the table are between $40 million and $45 million. Should Brees not agree to the Saints offer, he can sign a one year Franchise tender for $16 million guaranteed or sit the season out, get a year older, and get nothing. Brees BATNA is about $25 million - $45 million less in guarantees and the possibility of earning no income and losing a year of his career.
Saints Head Coach Sean Payton and starting middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma are suspended for the entire 2012 season for their roles in the Bountygate scandal. Also due to Bountygate, Assistant Head Coach Joe Vitt is suspended for the first six games of the season and former Pro Bowl defensive end Will Smith is suspended for the first four games. General Manager Mickey Loomis is suspended for eight games because of the scandal. All Pro guard Carl Nicks left the team via free agency.
This just in: the Saints 2012 season is already in the crapper. They aren’t going to the Super Bowl. They aren’t going to contend for the Super Bowl. The Atlanta Falcons are in the driver’s seat in the 2012 NFC South race. The Saints will be likely competing with the likes of the Carolina Panthers, Dallas Cowboys, and Chicago Bears for a Wild Card spot if this season is “successful” under the circumstances.
The Saints BATNA is that the 2012 season sucks worse than it already will, they SAVE $16 million in cold, hard cash (and/or cap room), slap the franchise tag on Brees again after 2013 (obligating the Saints to pony up $23 million in guaranteed money in 2013), and start the process all over again with more leverage than this year because Brees will be a year older and have been out of football for a year.
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| How big is Brees' "BATNA"? 2 |
WHAT ARE THEY FIGHTING FOR?
So Brees, who is in his mid-30s, stands to lose mid-eight figures in guaranteed cash and possibly lose a year of his career. He stands to gain about $3 million and possibly some structural concessions over the life of a five year deal. Relative to $40-something million in hand with potential earnings of $96 million, it does not seem like much.
The Saints are at risk, should Brees refuse to play, from having a season in which they will be Super Bowl “longshots” to just plain “sucking”. They stand to save $16 million during a season in cash, cap space, or some combination thereof. They will put themselves in the position of having to go through the same exercise next year. By not adding the extra $6.5 to Brees’ five year deal, the Saints will likely have a bit more salary cap flexibility than they would otherwise.
I think, again, that the Saints have the advantage. When you have nothing, you have nothing to lose. The Saints, after all of those suspensions to key personnel, have very little to lose this year. Brees, on the other hand, is a professional athlete. His shelf life is limited and he is about to enter the twilight of his career within the next three years.
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| The Saints only have so much to lose. |
WHY HE WILL SIGN AT THE VERY LAST MINUTE
From my point of view, the Saints have offered Brees a very lucrative contract, most money in NFL history. Brees is not going to lose that over $1.5 million additional dollars per year. Still, the Saints need Brees and want him to be happy. The Saints could bend on one concession here and a few hundred thousand dollars per year there.
If Brees signs the dotted line this very second, he is guaranteed to get nothing more than what has been offered. If he waits until Monday morning, the Saints may toss in a few extras. The offer will not be withdrawn between now and then, so why not try to get a little more? During the time in between there is no harm to him in waiting. Fans like myself and people in Saints management may be nervous, but Brees has no cause for alarm.
When Brees signs his contract, it will be big news. ESPN will have the blow-by-blow and Saints fans will breathe a sigh of relief. I’lll be getting exactly what I expect…WHEW!
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1) Image from www.historycommons.org and www.sportslogos.net
2) Image from www.tigerdroppings.com
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