Drew Dat? Boo Dat!

The 2012 New Orleans Saints season began yesterday. It is the first glimpse that we got of the impact of the Bountygate suspensions of Head Coach Sean Payton, Assistant Head Coach Joe Vitt, General Manager Mickey Loomis, and middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma (whose suspension was overturned on Friday but missed all of training camp) on the team. What we saw was what we got: a team with limitless offensive talent but a rebuilding but injured defense under a new defensive coordinator operating without the head coach who led them to a Super Bowl championship three seasons ago.


FAILED TO MEET LOW EXPECTATIONS

I did not expect my beloved Saints to look crisp. I did not expect the Saints to blow the Redskins out of the Superdome. However, I did not expect the Saints to lose.

The Redskins have been one of the least successful and most dysfunctional NFL teams in recent years. The game was played in the Superdome, where the Saints did not lose a single game last season. They started a rookie quarterback, Robert Griffin, III, whom I expected to play well “for a rookie”. There isn’t a Hall of Fame quarterback who would throw Griffin’s performance back (19/26, 320 yds. 2 TD, 0 INT, 139.9 rtg.), reach back into the grab bag of QB stat lines, and hope for better.


THE GOOD

Saints: In spite of mistake after mistake after mistake on defense, an invisible and abandoned running attack, and the most inaccurate passing performance of Drew Brees’ career that I can recall, the Saints still had a longshot chance to tie the score on the final play of the game. When everything went wrong, this team was still in the game. That is talent. It is not reflected on the stat sheet. It means this team can look forward to brighter outcomes.

Redskins: Forget “the good”, Robert Griffin, III was unbelievable. I compared Griffin to Cam Newton in our QB evaluation piece back in late July. In some manners, Griffin’s performance was better than Newton’s rookie debut record shattering performance last year, including the fact that his team won on the road.

Robert Griffin: "Uh oh! You got me. PSYCHE!" 1

THE BAD

Saints: The defense did not look ready to play an NFL game. There were some mitigating factors. The Saints were pained by several preseason injuries on defense plus the loss of their defensive leader, Jonathan Vilma. In addition, they are in a new system under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnulo which, by all accounts, is more complicated than the scheme of former defensive coordinator Gregg Williams. However, there is no excuse for the ineptitude, particularly on third down, shown by the defense yesterday.

Redskins: The Redskins’ “bad” is, by-and-large, the opposite of the Saints’ “good”. The Redskins racked up 40 points, faced an opposing quarterback with a stat line that Tim Tebow may have looked down upon, and still could have lost. Granted, when Drew Brees has a bad game, his team is still never dead as long as Brees has a pulse. The Skins will not face a QB of his caliber in most weeks. Still, when your opponent is down, you go for the jugular; you don’t wait to be saved by the bell (or the final gun).

Jimmy Graham still got to say, "YOU GOT DUNKED ON," to Redskins defenders. 3

THE UGLY

Saints: Drew Brees…. There is a TON of fault to go around and, actually, Brees is quite low on the list of people to blame. However, Brees is the $40 million man in 2012 because under the Saints’ difficult circumstances, the team has all eyes on Brees to lead.

In all fairness, Brees failure was in execution, not leadership. The Saints had a chance to win a game that 28 of the other 31 teams would have had no chance to win down 16 points in the 4th quarter. But completing 46% of his passes is unacceptable under any circumstances. That cannot happen again any time soon. I doubt it will.

Redskins: Absolutely nothing. Head coach Mike Shanahan’s game plan was beautiful. Robert Griffin, III had a debut that was beautiful. The Redskins coverage schemes were beautiful. Redskins Fan saw nothing ugly about their team yesterday. Congratulations.

This picture says a thousand words. 2

Don't forget to vote in the fan polls!

To advertise with The Daily Hat Trick, or to submit a guest column, please contact the editor at eric@thedailyhattrick.info.

The Daily Hat Trick is sponsored by Sports N Stuff. For great deals on jerseys, shirts, cologne, and other guy stuff, visit http://www.sportsnstuff.biz/.

1) Image from http://cnn.sportsillustrated.com

2) Image from www.cbssports.com
3) Image from http://espn.go.com

Who Dat? Not Drew Dat….

1

The Who Dat Nation is on Terror Alert Orange this week. ESPN’s Chris Mortenson recently cited sources close to the contract negotiations between Brees and the New Orleans Saints saying that Drew Brees will not report to training camp if he and the Saints do not have a long-term deal in place by Monday, July 16. Because Brees is an Exclusive Rights Franchise Player, under the NFL’s collective bargaining agreement there must be a new contract in place by that July 16 deadline or Brees must play under the terms of a one year, $16 million Franchise tender. Brees has stated that he won’t sign such a deal.


NOT A GAME OF CHICKEN

Regular readers know that I am from New Orleans and that I’m a Saints fan. I am not losing sleep over this. In common terms, I don’t think either side is so stupid that they’ll screw this up.

I don’t have sources at the NFL level. I am not an insider. I am not a journalist. I’m a blogger. But I do have common sense and I am familiar with how negotiations work. When I was in business school, one of my favorite classes was Negotiations. To this day, I can hear Professor Danos explaining the concept of BATNA to us: Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement. The more details of the Brees negotiations that are made public, the more I can hear my professor.


WHO’S SWINGING THE BIGGER BATNA?

This is where we are. The Saints have offered Brees a five year deal worth $96 million. As is, this deal would make Brees the highest paid player in NFL history, richer than Peyton Manning.

Reportedly, Brees wants $102.5 million over the same period of time. So Brees wants an additional $6.5 million over the life of the contract. I am not privy to the bonus structure offers, but, consistent with the trends I have observed, another $6.5 million over the life of the contract probably amounts to another $3 million in guarantees money, give or take.

I am going to guess, based on the market, that Brees’ guarantees on the table are between $40 million and $45 million. Should Brees not agree to the Saints offer, he can sign a one year Franchise tender for $16 million guaranteed or sit the season out, get a year older, and get nothing. Brees BATNA is about $25 million - $45 million less in guarantees and the possibility of earning no income and losing a year of his career.

Saints Head Coach Sean Payton and starting middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma are suspended for the entire 2012 season for their roles in the Bountygate scandal. Also due to Bountygate, Assistant Head Coach Joe Vitt is suspended for the first six games of the season and former Pro Bowl defensive end Will Smith is suspended for the first four games. General Manager Mickey Loomis is suspended for eight games because of the scandal. All Pro guard Carl Nicks left the team via free agency.

This just in: the Saints 2012 season is already in the crapper. They aren’t going to the Super Bowl. They aren’t going to contend for the Super Bowl. The Atlanta Falcons are in the driver’s seat in the 2012 NFC South race. The Saints will be likely competing with the likes of the Carolina Panthers, Dallas Cowboys, and Chicago Bears for a Wild Card spot if this season is “successful” under the circumstances.

The Saints BATNA is that the 2012 season sucks worse than it already will, they SAVE $16 million in cold, hard cash (and/or cap room), slap the franchise tag on Brees again after 2013 (obligating the Saints to pony up $23 million in guaranteed money in 2013), and start the process all over again with more leverage than this year because Brees will be a year older and have been out of football for a year.

How big is Brees' "BATNA"? 2

WHAT ARE THEY FIGHTING FOR?

So Brees, who is in his mid-30s, stands to lose mid-eight figures in guaranteed cash and possibly lose a year of his career. He stands to gain about $3 million and possibly some structural concessions over the life of a five year deal. Relative to $40-something million in hand with potential earnings of $96 million, it does not seem like much.

The Saints are at risk, should Brees refuse to play, from having a season in which they will be Super Bowl “longshots” to just plain “sucking”. They stand to save $16 million during a season in cash, cap space, or some combination thereof. They will put themselves in the position of having to go through the same exercise next year. By not adding the extra $6.5 to Brees’ five year deal, the Saints will likely have a bit more salary cap flexibility than they would otherwise.

I think, again, that the Saints have the advantage. When you have nothing, you have nothing to lose. The Saints, after all of those suspensions to key personnel, have very little to lose this year. Brees, on the other hand, is a professional athlete. His shelf life is limited and he is about to enter the twilight of his career within the next three years.

The Saints only have so much to lose.

WHY HE WILL SIGN AT THE VERY LAST MINUTE

From my point of view, the Saints have offered Brees a very lucrative contract, most money in NFL history. Brees is not going to lose that over $1.5 million additional dollars per year. Still, the Saints need Brees and want him to be happy. The Saints could bend on one concession here and a few hundred thousand dollars per year there.

If Brees signs the dotted line this very second, he is guaranteed to get nothing more than what has been offered. If he waits until Monday morning, the Saints may toss in a few extras. The offer will not be withdrawn between now and then, so why not try to get a little more? During the time in between there is no harm to him in waiting. Fans like myself and people in Saints management may be nervous, but Brees has no cause for alarm.

When Brees signs his contract, it will be big news. ESPN will have the blow-by-blow and Saints fans will breathe a sigh of relief. I’lll be getting exactly what I expect…WHEW!

Don't forget to vote in the fan polls!

To advertise with The Daily Hat Trick, or to submit a guest column, please contact the editor at eric@thedailyhattrick.info.

The Daily Hat Trick is sponsored by Sports N Stuff. For great deals on jerseys, shirts, cologne, and other guy stuff, visit http://www.sportsnstuff.biz/.

1) Image from www.historycommons.org and www.sportslogos.net
2) Image from www.tigerdroppings.com

Fool Me Once, Shame On You; Fool Me Twice, Shame on Me

The verdict is in and Sheriff/Judge Roger Goodell has handed down his sentence. Saints Head Coach Sean Payton has been suspended for the 2012 season. Saints General Manager Mickey Loomis got 8 games. Assistant Head Coach Joe Vitt got 6 games handed down to him. The team was fined $500,000. The Saints had their second round picks in 2012 and 2013 taken away.

1

WHY SO SEVERE?

I’ve made absolutely no secret that I was raised in New Orleans and am a die hard Saints fan. I love the Saints and am as heartbroken as a football fan can be. But, Sean Payton and his gang brought this upon themselves and the fans.

Goodell approached the Saints in 2009. He told them that they suspected that the bounty practice was happening. He ordered the Saints to stop it if that was the case. The Saints effectively patted him on the head, basically threw the finger at Goodell and kept doing it for two more seasons. When the Commissioner’s top priority, during the last two seasons, has been "player safety, player safety, player safety" and the man in charge is willfully disrespected on that topic, tough consequences can be expected.


ON THE FIELD

This is a crippling blow to the Saints Super Bowl XLVII prospects. The biggest operational part of an NFL Head Coach’s job is to manage his position coaches, who manage the players, first-hand. Without a doubt, Payton's staff is first rate. But there is a reason Payton is the top coach and his organizational excellence is ultimately why the Saints won a Super Bowl.

Talent goes a long way in professional sports and I expect the Saints, with Drew Brees at quarterback, will more likely than not have a winning record and more likely than not get into the playoffs. But the Saints' road to winning the big prize without Payton is filled with peril. I cannot see the Saints, with very little time to prepare for or adjust to these penalties before the draft, minicamps, and training camp, going deep into the playoffs in the coming season.


LONG TERM IMPACT

I am willing to bet no other coach tries this, going forward. I am disappointed, but the Saints asked for this. The only person for whom I have sympathy is Saints Owner Benson, who, from all accounts, had nothing to do with this. I cannot imagine that Payton and Loomis, under the circumstances, would not have been fired were it not for the Super Bowl success to which they led the team.

The Saints program was run by coaches, who are managers and leaders by example, not players. This is a key difference in what the Saints did and most player run, under-the-table bounty programs. Today, the league is much tighter on player safety issues. The NFL is being sued for withholding information vital to player safety by a number of former players, who suffered concussions and other head injuries. The Saints could not have picked a worse time to run afoul of league rules with a bounty program.


WHO’S NEXT?

When the New England Patriots were fined $500,000 and docked a first round draft pick for their involvement in the “Spygate” sideline video recording scandal, I thought the league sent a very loud and clear message that it would not tolerate an organization’s disregard for the Commissioner’s office. The penalty was the harshest, ever, handed down to a team from the NFL commissioner. Apparently, that wasn’t enough.

Perhaps the Saints’ brass thought a half-mil and a lost pick was simply a cost of doing business. Perhaps they thought instructions to cease and desist a potential league-image-wrecking practice were guidelines and not actual rules. After these severe penalties, I do not know what more the Commissioner’s office can do to show that it means business. I would not want to be the team to find out, either.

No place to be.... 2

Don't forget to vote in the fan polls!

To advertise with The Daily Hat Trick, or to submit a guest column, please contact the editor at eric@thedailyhattrick.info.

The Daily Hat Trick is sponsored by Sports N Stuff. For great deals on jerseys, shirts, cologne, and other guy stuff, visit http://www.sportsnstuff.biz/.


1) Image spliced from images from  www.examiner.com, www.onlineathens.com, www.seattlepi.com, www.diradiocast.com, www.stockpodium.com 
2) Image spliced together, crudely, from http://wcc.dli.mt.gov/ , http://www.indyposted.com/ , and http://www.bloguin.com/