The Miami Heat defeated the Indiana Pacers tonight, winning the Eastern Conference Semifinal series, 4-2. The Heat will play in the Eastern Conference Finals against the winner of Game 7 between the Philadelphia 76ers and the Boston Celtics in Boston.
As of today we have five teams still alive in the NBA for the 2012 championship. Let's break down the participants and their prospects.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Philadelphia 76ers – Great year for the Sixers and their fans. Outstanding job by Coach Doug Collins. Break out the “I76” by G. Love and Special Sauce.
It's a little late for Philly to turn to The Doctor. 3
Boston Celtics – Interestingly, only seven teams have lost a Game 7 at home during the last 10 seasons (including 2012). The Celtics account for two of those losses. In fact, in the 66 year history of the (now 30 team) NBA, there have only been 22 times a team dropped a Game 7 at home. The Celtics franchise accounts for four such instances.
Well, Sixers fan, I hope that made you feel better. It ain’t happening on Saturday. Future Hall of Famers Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce, whose combination of forces led to the Celtics’ 2008 NBA Championship, their first in 22 years, could possibly be playing their final game together as teammates due to contract and salary cap issues. I think one would have to pry this game from their cold, dead fingers. That, and the 76ers have outplayed their abilities, have not shot well in the series (an omen of doom in a road playoff elimination game), and simply do not have the total talent that the Celtics have.
Miami Heat – Considering the injury to Chris Bosh and the one game suspension of forward Udonis Haslem, I expected the physical Indiana Pacers to force a Game 7 in Miami. The Heat did themselves a huge favor by winning tonight. The Eastern Conference Finals will start on Monday. The 76ers and aging Celtics (whom I, and most, believe will win on Saturday) will battle to the end for the right to travel to Miami and face the Heatles on only one full day of rest.
Bosh will have more time to recover and the 30-something trio of Garnett, Allen, and Pierce will have to keep going like the Energizer Bunny. I expect the Heat to be in the Finals, advancing in 6 games if they face the Celtics or, should the miraculous happen, sweeping the Sixers in four games.
Dwyane Wade score 41 against the Pacers in Game 6. 2
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Oklahoma City Thunder – It is going to be a lot of fun watching the Thunder, who have grown before the eyes of basketball fans during the past three seasons, go toe-to-toe with one to the best teams franchises in recent years, the San Antonio Spurs. I expect the Thunder to be very difficult to beat at the Ford Center in Oklahoma City. I simply do not see how they beat the Spurs, who haven’t lost to anyone since April 11th (before we forked our hard earned money to Uncle Sam), at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, even once.
In the unlikely event that the Thunder can nab one game in San Antonio, they may have some hope. Otherwise, this promising team of young stars will have to endure one more growing pain on the path to greatness.
San Antonio Spurs – This could be the final championship run for their trio of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobli, and Tony Parker. They are going out with a bang, having won 18 consecutive games. I think that streak comes to an end against the second seeded Thunder, but the Spurs may have done so much damage to the Thunder in this series by the time they suffer that streak-ending loss, that it may be no more than a hiccup on the Spurs’ road to a fifth NBA Championship in 14 seasons.
"There's more where this came from." 1
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The Philadelphia 76ers staved off elimination last night by defeating the Atlantic Division champion, fourth seeded Boston Celtics in Game 6 of the NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals in Philadelphia. The eighth seed in the East, the Sixers were the most unlikely team to be a win away from the Conference Championship round, with the worst record of all 16 NBA playoff teams in 2012.
So, in a tribute to this never-say-die underdog, here is former Miss Pennsylvania Emily Wills.
Round 1 of the NBA Playoffs is in the books as of Sunday afternoon. The first round gave the surviving teams and several worthy opponents a chance to showcase their potential. I found it poetic that the final game of the first round, Game 7 of the host Memphis Grizzlies and victorious Los Angeles Clippers, was an often chippy series. What better way to transition to a second round of the NBA Playoffs that may more closely resemble Fight Club than a low-to-moderate contact sport.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Philadelphia 76ers vs Boston Celtics
The odds of the team with the fifth best regular season record in the Eastern Conference hosting Game 1 of the Conference Semifinals had to be pretty slim when the season started. It has never happened before in the Eastern Conference Playoffs and only happened once in the history of the NBA (1994).
Nonetheless, that is what we have on our hands. The fourth seeded Celtics, winners of the Atlantic Division with a lesser record than the fifth seeded Atlanta Hawks, have home court advantage over the eighth seeded Philadelphia 76ers. While this current crop of Sixers and Celtics, division rivalry aside, don’t have much history of heated relations, these franchises do. The Sixers and Celtics, according to mcubed.net, have met 18 times in the playoffs, more than any other two franchises in NBA history (Lakers vs Celtics – 14 times).
In the not-so-distant past, this rivalry was defined by big superstar, Hall of Fame names on both teams. Paul Pierce (19 PPG, 5 RPG) launching 27 footers for every wicked crossover by Allen Iverson…Charles Barkley dissing Larry Bird…Dr. J and Moses Malone working Kevin McHale and Robert Parish in the paint…Wilt the Stilt versus Bill Russell. Once upon a time, this was epic.
Today the Celtics still have Paul Pierce, teaming up with Kevin “The Big Ticket” Garnett (16 PPG, 8 RPG) and Ray Allen, A.K.A. Jesus Shuttlesworth (14 PPG, 45% 3pt). Unfortunately for viewers of this series, the Celtics offer all of the Hall of Fame star power. Elton Brand (11 PPG, 7 RPG, 2 BlkPG), Lou Williams (15 PPG), and Andre Iguodala (12 PPG, 6 RPG, 6 APG, 2 StlPG) don’t quite have the ring of Julius Erving, Malone, and Barkley.
Enough history, which is interesting…on to the present, which really isn’t. Congratulations to 76ers coach Doug Collins for advancing the Sixers in the playoff for the first time in a long time, against long odds in spite of the Derrick Rose injury. The Celtics already took Game 1 on Saturday. The dream stops here.
Advantage: Celtics Expectation: 5 games
Barkley dissed Bird but Bird returns the favor, blocking a Barkley attempted dunk. 1
Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat
I expected the Pacers to surprise some people and they played the Heat tight in Miami yesterday. Heat forward Chris Bosh (18 PPG, 8 RPG) is expected to miss the rest of the series, meaning forward LeBron James (27 PPG, 8 RPG, 6 APG, 2 StlPG) and guard Dwyane Wade (22 PPG, 5 APG, 5 RPG, 2 StlPG) must bring their “A” game every night. Otherwise, this series could become uncomfortably close for the Heat.
Roy Hibbert (13 PPG, 9 RPG, 2 BlkPG) and Danny Granger (18 PPG, 5 RPG) will keep Indiana in these games. Ultimately, in spite of the Bosh injury, I don’t think the Pacers win this series with Wade or LeBron being exposed to some Kryptonite. Indiana will not go down without a fight. I think the Heat may have some trouble on the Pacers home floor, but I expect them in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Advantage: Heat Expectation: 6 games
There's more where this came from. 2
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Los Angeles Clippers vs San Antonio Spurs
This series is the least predictable. It could be the most physical. Expect it to be entertaining.
The championship lineage of the Spurs goes back to last century, with head coach Gregg Popovich and future Hall of Fame forward Tim Duncan (15 PPG, 9 RPG, 2 BlkPG). The key for the Spurs, however, will be guard Tony Parker (18 PPG, 8 APG). This team will go as far as Parker, not Duncan, takes them. Popovich has done an outstanding job in coaching his aging team to the top seed in the Western Conference for the second consecutive year. However, this team demonstrated, last season, that it could be beaten by being out run and out physicaled.
That weakness feeds directly into the Clippers’ strengths. Nobody does everything – runs, passes, shoots, harasses opposing ball handlers, like Clippers guard Chris Paul (20 PPG, 9 APG, 3 StlPG) and no specimen in this series is as physically daunting as Clippers forward Blake Griffin (21 PPG, 11 RPG). Throw in bench players like the menacing defensive enforcers Kenyon Martin (5 PPG, 4 RPG, 1 BlkPG) and DeAndre Jordan (7 PPG, 8 RPG, 2 BlkPG) and the Spurs experience and egos may be tested by the brash youth of the Clippers.
That said, the Clippers have to tighten up their transition defense and half court offense to have a prayer against the Spurs. That may not be enough.
Advantage: Spurs Expectation: 5 games
Who says PR people don't have a sense of humor? Is he old(er)? Yes. Will the Clippers take him for granted? NO! 3
Los Angeles Lakers vs Oklahoma City Thunder
How could I have a “fighting” theme while discussing the playoffs and not save the best fight for last. Lakers forward Metta World Peace (8 PPG, 3 RPG) already drew first blood before the series started when he elbowed and concussed Thunder forward James Harden (17 PPG, 4 RPG) late in the regular season. These teams have an intense playoff history, dating back to the first round of the 2010 playoffs in which the then-eighth seeded Thunder took the then-top seeded Lakers to seven games.
The game has escalated with the recent un-pleasantries between these two teams. Unfortunately for the Lake Show, this is not going to come down to one star player in the Lakers’ Kobe Bryant (28 PPG, 5 APG, 5 RPG) against Kevin Durant (28 PPG, 8 RPG, 4 APG). The Black Mamba and the Durantula will be great. Russell Westbrook (24 PPG, 6 APG, 5 RPG) and other role players for the Thunder will be in full force. Pau Gasol (17 PPG, 10 RPG) and Andrew Bynum (19 PPG, 12 RPG, 2 BlkPG)…wheeeewwwww!!!…I won’t hold my breath based on what I saw in the first round series against the Denver Nuggets.
Advantage: Lakers Expectation: 5 games
Metta World Peace or Metta World War? Geez! 4
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I couldn't go the entire week without sharing some original sports take. It is an unwritten rule that falling down 3 games to 1 in a best of seven series is all but a kiss of death. According to the sports statistics site, Who Wins, the historical odds of winning a best of seven series in any major professional sports league (NBA, MLB, NHL) after falling down 3-1 is only 8%. In fact, the chance of surviving to a Game 6 is only 43%. In the first round of the NBA playoffs, those odds plummet to 5% and 38% respectively.
In essence, teams like the Denver Nuggets, Memphis Grizzlies, Chicago Bulls, and Atlanta Hawks, should have begun packing their bags after falling down 3-1 to the Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers, Philadelphia 76ers, and Boston Celtics, respectively. All four teams forced sixth games. The Hawks and Bulls lost in the final seconds. he Nuggets blew the Lakers' doors off and forced a Game 7, and the Grizzlies travel to Los Angeles tonight for Game 6.
This is why these men are paid to play. The gaps in talent between any two playoff teams are not that great. No series is over until it is over.
According to whowins.com there have only been 13 home teams to lose a Game 7 in the history of the NBA. The Lakers haven't lost a home Game 7 in 43 years and I don't expect it to happen this weekend. Still, this first round of the NBA playoffs has bucked some trends so far. Expect the unexpected. I can't wait to see what the conference semifinals offer!
Kobe Bryant was reportedly very sick with a stomach ailment before Game 6. Last night may feel like the sniffles compared to a possible death blow in Game 7. 1
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The Chicago Bulls lost Game 2 of their first round series with the Philadelphia 76ers at home, in Chicago. They were the first home team to lose in this year's playoffs. The series shifts over to Philadelphia for the next two games.While the Philadelphia fans will, do doubt, be hostile toward the Bulls, perhaps the Philadelphia scenery, such as the dance team, will ease the pains of travel.
They don't want to come but she'll help make it harder to leave.
I, personally, was rooting for the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Playoffs. But I hate to see any contending team get derailed by an injury. That is what happened to the Chicago Bulls toady when reigning MVP and starting point guard Derrick Rose was lost for the season with a torn ACL in his knee.
Adding insult to injury, the tear happened with just over a minute remaining in the game and the outcome all but determined. The Bulls beat the Philadelphia 76ers by double digits.
Earlier today, I said I expected a four game sweep of the Sixers by the Bulls. I am sticking with that. The Bulls are an excellent, well coached team that has won two thirds of its games without Rose in the lineup this season. I expect the dream to end in the conference semifinals at the hands of either the Atlanta Hawks or Boston Celtics, especially if the Celtics advance.
Last week's advantage/disadvantage record: 5-2 Must See Sports 2012 record: 25-13
Thursday, February 16
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers at Portland Trailblazers
One might ask, “The Blazers are in 8th place in the West. What’s so ‘must see’ about them.” While in eighth place, the Trailblazers are only 3.5 games out of first place. Every playoff spot in the Western Conference is up for grabs.
Losing four of your last five games, as Portland has, is not the best way to close that 3.5 game gap. Their only win in that five game stretch was over the Hornets, with the worst record in the West. Last night the Blazers lost to the lowly Washington Wizards. They need a confidence boost.
The Clippers are the kind of opponent that can give that boost, should the Blazers win. The Clippers have won eight out of their last 11 games and are in sole possession of first place in the Pacific division. They are no longer the “other” L.A. team!
The Blazers star player is LaMarcus Aldridge (27 PPG, 8 RPG), but their success would not be possible this season without the defensive contributions of the ageless Marcus Camby (4 PPG, 10 RPG, 2 BlkPG). The 37 year old Camby, however, has averaged less than his season average for rebounds in his last five games and only blocked two shots in that five game stretch. Camby has played 20 minutes or less in three of those five games. The Blazers up tempo offense cannot work against the league’s better teams without Camby’s full defensive contribution.
The Clippers recently learned that guard Chauncey Billups (15 PPG, 4 APG) would be lost for the season with an Achilles injury. Chris Paul (19 PPG, 9 APG) and company have kept on trucking, thus far. However, the loss of key players like Billups is often felt against the better teams in the league. Still, the Clippers have momentum and the Blazers appear to have stumbled. Paul and Blake Griffin (21 PPG, 11 RPG) are not the ideal tandem against which one should try to get his groove back.
Advantage: Clippers
CP3...OH! 1
NCAA Men's Basketball
#17 Wisconsin Badgers at #8 Michigan State Spartans
The Big Ten appears to be this year’s Big East, with a number of tough, ranked teams beating each other up in the race for the conference lead. Last month, I commented that Michigan State appeared to be stumbling with the coming of conference play. They’ve regained their footing, having won five of their last six games.
Draymond Green (15 PPG, 11 RPG) of the Spartans has recorded a double-double in three of his last four games and was one rebound against Ohio State from recording four in his last five. When Green and Keith Appling (12 PPG, 4 APG) are “on”, the Spartans are extremely tough to stop.
The Badgers have been a roller coaster ride. After losing three straight Big Ten games as conference play began to get underway, Wisconsin has recovered to win seven of their last eight games, all in conference play, with their only loss coming to #3 Ohio State. The Badgers go as senior guard Jordan Taylor goes (15 PPG, 4 APG, 4 RPG, 40% FG).
Last month, the Hat Trick noted Taylor struggles shooting from the field. There has not been much improvement as Taylor had shot 40% or less from the field in four consecutive games before their last game, against Minnesota. Taylor can draw fouls in the lane, but jacks up too many three point shots, putting up an average of 5 shots per game from downtown, but only shooing 33%. That is not terrible, except that when he shoots more from behind the arc when the Badgers lose, going 13 for 37 from downtown in the Badgers’ six losses this season.
Advantage: Michigan State
Maybe Taylor needs a little more time in the gym? I'm sure he's there a lot as it is. 2
Friday, February 17
NBA
Dallas Mavericks at Philadelphia 76ers
The 76ers have continued to win, showing that their hot start was not fluke. They are winning with great teamwork and smothering defense, allowing 87 points per game, second in the NBA. Forward Andre Iguodala (12 PPG, 7 RPG, 5 APG) has been the straw that stirs the drink for the Sixers, but, make no mistake, Coach Doug Collins gets every player who takes the floor to pull their weight. Need more proof? Sixth man Lou Williams (16 PPG, 4 APG), who plays 26 minutes per game, is the team’s leading scorer.
The Mavericks have recovered from a rocky 1-4 start to the season and have recovered to pull within two games of the San Antonio Spurs in the Southwest Division, in fourth place in the West. Dallas has won four straight, including wins over the playoff contending Clippers, Blazers, and Denver Nuggets. Dirk Nowitski (19 PPG, 6 RPG) also started the season off slowly, but appears to have recovered, scoring 20 or more points in six consecutive games.
Dallas is hot and Dallas is the defending champ. I am not quite ready to buy into Philadelphia’s Rocky Balboa act…yet.
Advantage: Mavericks
Sweet Lou! 3
Saturday, February 18
NCAA Men’s Basketball
#6 Ohio State Buckeyes at #19 Michigan Wolverines
Big game in the Big Ten. Michigan seeks a chance to redeem itself after being blasted in Columbus earlier this year. The problem for the Wolverines is that probably lottery pick Jared Sullinger (18 PPG, 9 RPG) is healthy and senior Will Buford (15 PPG, 5 RPG) is playing at his peak. Tim Hardaway, Jr. (14 PPG, 4 RPG) of Michigan will need to show up against the Buckeyes, unlike his abysmal, four point, 10% shooting performance against UM's last ranked opponent, Michigan State.
A win on Saturday will put Michigan in to a three way tie with OSU and Michigan State for the Big Ten lead. The Wolverines are at home. however, unless Hardaway can perform light years better than he did last in his last big game and freshman point guard Trey Burke (14 PPG, 5 APG) can perform above his season average AND Ohio State's key players, Sullinger and Buford are off of their games, Michigan is in for an uphill battle. Those are too many "ifs".
Advantage: Ohio State
Hardaway's dad, Tim Hardaway, Sr., made it look a lot easier at UTEP than it will be for his son on Saturday at Ohio State. 4
#16 St. Mary’s Gaels at #14 Murray State Racers
Mid-major schools...major matchup. The Murray State Racers of the Ohio Valley Conference were the last of the unbeaten teams in college basketball this season, falling to the Tennessee State Tigers in a head scratcher last Thursday in spite of a 31 point, 77% shooting performance from their top player, junior guard Isaiah Canaan (19 PPG, 4 APG. Canaan's six turnovers did not help, however, nor did his senior backcourt partner, Donte Poole (14 PPG, 39% 3PtFG) and his 3 for 10, four turnover, reboundless, performance in which he fouled out.
Murray State ascended from mid-major conference anonymity to the top of the college ranks with scoring, scoring, and more scoring - using quickness and sharpshooting. The racers average 75 points per game. They don't just impose their will on inferior opponents. They shoot 47% from the field. You can either put the ball in the hold or you can't. Against South Florida, Murray state scored 70 and against Memphis, they scored 76. Teams that can score against anyone can be a problem in the big dance.
St. Mary's has quietly risen into the top 25. The Gaels also put up a lot of points, scoring 76 points per game and shooting 48% from the field. St. Mary's gets their points more from ball movement than transition play and fast breaks, which is more similar to Murray State's scoring recipe. They have their own 1-2 punch in junior point guard Matthew Dellavedova (16 PPG, 6 APG) and fifth year senior power forward Rob Jones (15 PPG, 11 RPG).
Dellavedova will be the key. In all four St. Mary's losses, he turned the ball over three or more times, greater than his per game average.The Gaels have played a tougher schedule, are more physical, and have more quality wins. I like them in this clash of the mid-major titans.
Advantage: St. Mary's
"MURRAY STATE...RAC-ERRS!"...Some things you just have to see to believe.5
Sunday, February 19
NBA
Dallas Mavericks at New York Knicks
Future Hall of Famer Jason Kidd (4 PPG, 6 APG, 5 RPG, 28 MPG) of the Mavericks gets a taste of Linsanity in this nationally televised Sunday afternoon game. The Knicks have won seven consecutive games, coinciding with the rise of sensational second year point guard Jeremy Lin (13 PPG, 5 APG). Lin, averaging 24 points and 10 assists in the last five games, including a game winning shot in the final second against Toronto, has taken the basketball world by storm and put the Knicks back at the contender's table in the Eastern Conference.
Lin and the Knicks are red hot. So are the defending champion Mavericks, winners of five straight. I expect the Knicks to win on friday against New Orleans, but I expect the Linsanity to stop on Sunday, especially without any certainty of Knicks forward Carmelo Anthony's (22 PPG, 6 RPG) return to the lineup.
Advantage: Mavericks
A brother like me...is going "Lin-sane"! 6
Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder
This is an example of a good team, in Denver, facing an excellent team in Oklahoma City, with the best record in the Western Conference (22-7). Nuggets point guard Ty Lawson (15 PPG, 6 APG) has been key in the Nuggets remaining in contention since the Carmelo Anthony trade last year. Lawson is coming off of an abysmal 3 point, 2 assist, 2 turnover night against the Mavericks last night. The Nuggets, losers of seven out of their last nine, are slumping and will need a lot more from Lawson against OKC.
The Thunder have also hit a speed bump, losing three of their last seven, although two of those losses were against the playoff-contending Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs. Kevin Durant (27 PPG, 8 RPG) has played himself back into the race for the scoring title, catching up to Kobe Bryant and LeBron James.Considering Denver's Option Defense (as in, "it is optional whether or not we play defense), which coughs up 100 points per game.
Advantage: Oklahoma City
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