It’s Over

The Boston Celtics had a ticket to the NBA Finals in their hands going into Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Miami Heat. It was never punched. Fueled by LeBron’s James’ historic 45 point, 15 rebound, 5 assist effort, the Heat avoided elimination and sent the series back to Miami for a deciding Game 7 on Saturday.

GAME 7 – COLD HARD FACTS

Here are some cold, hard facts for Celtics fans about Saturday’s game.

• Home team record in an NBA Game 7, all-time: 88-22 *
• Miami’s last Game 7 loss at home: 2005 **
• Boston’s last Game 7 win on the road: 1969 **
• Number of Game 7 wins, all-time, by the road team following four straight home team wins followed by two straight road team wins: 0 * 

Sources: *WhoWins.com, **Yahoo! Sports

HISTORY IS HISTORY, RIGHT?

One can say that what is in the past is in the past and that it does not affect the present. That may, in fact, be true. But historical trends are hard to ignore once the evidence piles up high enough. Correlation is not causation but, over time, it is reasonable to factor it into one’s expectation.

Still the Celtics have some very present day problems working against them. The Heat are simply better on their home floor, period. The Heat won 70% of their games in the regular season; they won 85% at home. The Heat are 11-6 in the 2012 playoffs; they are 7-2 at home.

The Celtics are simply…bad…on the road this year. In the regular season, they won just under 60% of their games; they only won 45% of their road games. In the playoffs, their road record is 3-6. They have not won back-to-back road playoff games at all in the playoffs.

The last game that involved Boston stealing a Game 7 in someone else's barn featured Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain. 3

ENOUGH ABOUT HOME COURT!

You’re tired of hearing about the home court advantage for the Heat, which is substantial? Celtics Fan still has a lot to worry about. The Celtics are an older team and the fatigue was evident in Game 6 and the Celtics were out run, out physicaled, and out hustled from start to finish. Now they have to travel to Miami and play a game with only one day of rest.

Celtics guard Ray Allen is nursing a bad ankle and appeared to be invisible in Game 6 (if such a thing is possible). Paul Pierce could not buy a bucket when it mattered. Kevin Garnett appeared to be contained. This is not likely to improve in Game 7 because the weapon Miami had in Game 6 that it did not have in Games 1-4 and the second half of Game 5 is forward Chris Bosh. Bosh made the lane and the wings less comfortable for Boston’s key offensive threats. He will also be two more days removed from the abdominal injury that kept him out of most of the this series and the last series (against the Indiana Pacers).

This should be waiting at the Celtics' gate at the Miami airport. 2

WHICH “KING” SHOWS UP; COACHING CHESS MATCH

Of course, if LeBron James plays half as well in Game 7 as he did in the first half of Game 6, there is no need for a discussion; the Celtics will not have a chance. Even if The King does have an average to below average game, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh have been like sleeping bears in this series. A Game 7, all-or-nothing affair at home is probably going to awaken them if anything will.

Finally, I think Heat coach Erik Spoelstra is not getting a fraction of the credit he deserves. He outcoached Doc Rivers, badly, in Game 6. Rivers was never able to adjust to what the Heat were doing, notwithstanding James’ monster performance. Personally, I think he outcoached Rivers in every game except for Game 5, which Boston snatched in Miami to go up 3-2.

The game can be helped by coaching, but is ultimately won or lost by the execution of the players. Last night’s disappearance by the Celtics (and their crowd) allowed the momentum to completely shift over to the Heat players, coaching staff, and fans. The body is still warm, but being forced to overcome all three of those factors (coaches, players, fans) leads me to believe the Celtics are dead.

It is going to take more than some jackass wasting his Samuel Adams to stop LeBron. 1

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Retweet of the Day - June 8, 2012

I am not going to do this very often, but today's Retweet of the Day is from me, Eric Hatfield ‏(@ech1997). I don't know if Skip Bayless says ridiculous things about LeBron James because he is being a caricature of himself to garner attention, which is his job (to attract viewers) or if he is a jackass that doesn't know anything about basketball. But Bayless tweeted that LeBron's historic performance last night in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals (a win or go home game for the Heat) was not clutch. To which I replied:
"@RealSkipBayless You're such a #hater. If @kingjames cured cancer & AIDS, right B4 humanity was wiped out, you'd STILL say he wasn't clutch."

Whatever, Skip.

Image from http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com

You’re Fii-ehd!

Good thing, for Spoelstra, The Donald isn't running the Heat. 1

That was the best Donald Trump impersonation I could put in writing. Many have speculated, repeatedly, that should Miami Heat Head Coach Erik Spoelstra fail to win the Eastern Conference Final, Pat Riley could be playing the role of The Donald and show The Apprentice the door. Should that be the case, Coach Spoelstra is literally coaching for his job tonight.

WIN OR DIE

I am not of the opinion that “championship round or bust” is the case, though. I think we as sports fans are getting into “overreaction mode”. What Spoelstra has done with Heat President Pat Riley’s “grand experiment” and the inevitably stout egos of their “Big Three” of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh in just two seasons is impressive.

Consider the Heat’s shortage of quality depth after the sixth man, all of the attention, scrutiny, and media pressure, and the inability of the Heat to pursue free agent role players because of the strain that the Big Three place on the salary cap. The man has a conference title under his belt. Did I mention he coaches LeBron James? One could make a well reasoned argument that Spoelstra has the toughest head coaching job in the NBA.


WHO WANTS THAT BUM?

First, I doubt that Riley is firing Spoelstra, no matter how this season ends in Miami. Second, if Spoelstra were available, he would not be unemployed long. I think a lot of teams, including (potentially) division rivals like the Orlando Magic, are lying in wait and have not filled their vacancy because of the possibility of Spoelstra's availability. Other hot coaching prospects, like Brian Shaw, have much less to list on their resumes. Spoelstra's fan-imposed standard has been "title or bust”, ludicrous for two years on the job with a conference title and being two wins away from another.

What GMs are going to say, "Don't call us. We'll call you," if they are in need of a coach? I doubt Michael Jordan would show Spoelstra the door if he expressed an interest in coaching Jordan’s coaching-starved team in Charlotte. Does anyone think the Magic, after weathering a coaching crisis this season, would not give Spoelstra serious consideration?

The only opinion that matters. 2

NO GUARANTEES

The media speculation about the brevity of Spoelstra’s tenure in Miami has been rampant since the Heat got off to a pedestrian start in the 2010-2011 season. However, there hasn't been the least hint from the one man in the public eye that matters: Pat Riley. The only times he has spoken on Spoelstra’s future, he has given votes of confidence. And while we, the public, can hyper-criticize every decision he makes because of the team he coaches, in the grand scheme, Spoelstra’s worst case scenario is that his season result is the same as that of the (future Hall of Famer) reigning NBA Coach of the Year, Spurs coach Gregg Popovich, whose last conference title would have come four years before Spoelstra's last.

In other words, there are no guarantees. Former Dallas Cowboys Head Coach Jimmy Johnson was fired after winning a second consecutive Super Bowl so no coach is safe. But Spoelstra is a bright young coach who has a very difficult NBA coaching job with an insane amount of scrutiny and pressure. He has done a pretty good job. And if he gets fired, he's going to be on a ton of short lists until he gets another head coaching job.

Don't hold your breath. 3

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The Daily Hat Trick is sponsored by Sports N Stuff. For great deals on jerseys, shirts, cologne, and other guy stuff, visit http://www.sportsnstuff.biz/.
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The Green Mile

The fork is on the counter. The bird has been in the oven for an hour. The meat thermometer needle is juuuust to the left of the “turkey” marking.

Not yet, Celtics Fan; not yet! 1

NOT DONE YET

Don’t stick the fork in, yet. They aren’t quite done yet. But the Miami Heat are in deep, deep doo doo. The Heat had ample opportunity to slam the door on the Boston Celtics in Game 4, but, instead, lost in overtime after LeBron James fouled out and the Celtics launched a monster defensive surge in overtime, led by Celtics point guard Rajon Rondo.

Heat Fan thought, “So what? We have home court.” Not anymore! It is this simple: the Heat must win Game 6 in Boston the return home and win a Game 7 to win the Eastern Conference Finals. The Celtics, for all practical purposes, have one opportunity, which appeared to be out of reach after a gut wrenching loss in Game 2 in Miami, to clinch an improbable conference title.


HOME SWEET HOME

The home court advantage in the NBA playoffs cannot be understated. I could throw every statistic in the book to you, demonstrating how tough a playoff road win is. But all we need to do is look at both conference finals series. In both the Celtics-Heat series and the Thunder-Spurs series, the home team won the first eight consecutive games, 8 of 10 to date. Both higher seeded teams in each conference, the Spurs in the West and the Heat in the East, not only handed home court over to their opponents, but also handed those opponents a home close out game.

The Heat have had trouble, in general, winning in Boston and the Celtics have had few problems defending their home court in the playoffs. What the Heat have, mitigating their perilous circumstances, are a younger team with more total talent from players 1 through 12 on the active roster. The Heat have demonstrated that they are capable of competing with the Celtics at T.D. Garden in Game 4.

Wade may rue Game 4. 4

TALE OF THE TAPE

For all of the criticism, the Heat still have the best player in the game, three time MVP LeBron James, in his prime. They have 2006 NBA Finals MVP Dwyane Wade in his prime. They have All-Star Chris Bosh in his prime. The Celtics have four heavy hitters, but only one is in (or is entering) his prime, Rajon Rondo. Ray Allen has been a shell of himself during the playoffs with a gimpy ankle while Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce are simply older and do not have the total stamina of their younger Miami counterparts.

That isn’t to say that Boston’s “Big Three” of Allen, Pierce, and Garnett are incapable of playing like the future Hall of Famers that they are. Garnett has answered that bell repeatedly during the playoffs. These guys are veterans who know what they have to do to win in big playoff situations. But sports medicine and physics are what they are and the energy and youth factors are on the side of the Heat.

Is this Garnett's future or a mirror? 2

COULD WE JUST SKIP GAME 7?

Here is what you need to know. The Celtics are in the driver’s seat. They are tough at home. The Heat are bad in Boston. The Game 6 winner wins this series, in my opinion. The landscape strongly favors the Celtics.

HOW-EVER…should the Heat manage to finally take one in Boston and win Game 6, it’s over. You can quote me and put it in bold print: THE HEAT ARE NOT GOING TO LOSE A GAME 7 AT AMERICAN AIRLINES ARENA IN MIAMI. Not…gonna…happen.

The historic trend in the NBA is overwhelmingly favorable to Miami. The Heat have been stifling at home all season. The Celtics already have one win in Miami during this series; earning a second would be Herculean. The Celtics would have to travel for a fourth time after having played a seven game marathon with a young, up-tempo Philadelphia 76ers team in the prior round. All of the weights that are placed on the scale of a playoff series would completely shift to the Heat in the event of a Game 7.

For now, however, the Heatles must walk The Green Mile back to Boston. The Celtics have a chance to make sure the Heat are carried out and cannot walk out. If not, it was a great ride for Boston’s Big Three.

Will the Heat go out like Wild Bill at "The Green Mile"? 3

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Retweet of the Day - June 4, 2012

Today's retweet is a crack on the three time MVP of the NBA that everyone loves to hate. This is from Marc Bertrand (@Marc_Bertrand).

"The #Celtics are taking their talents back to South Beach with The Eastern Conference Finals tied up at 2-2"

That quote will be on his epitaph.

Image from www.bleacherreport.com

One More Dance

The Hat Trick ran a short piece on Friday about the possibility that the "Big Three" in Boston may have had their last dance at T.D. Garden. After two clutch, veteran efforts resulting in wins, there will be a Game 6 in Boston. That's a win for the Celtics and a win for you fellas reading the Hat Trick!




They'll get one last dance.

Image from http://thebasketballoracle.wordpress.com

Last Dance

Tonight, the Boston Celtics host the Miami Heat in Game 3 of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals. We may witness the end of an era.

The foursome of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Rajon Rondo have been together for five seasons, winning the Eastern Conference twice and the NBA Championship once, in 2008. The arrivals of Garnett and Allen in the 2007 offseason and the rise of Rondo to that of an All-Star caliber player brought the long dormant and once proud Boston Celtics franchise back to NBA prominence. The odds are significant that the rebirth effectively will die tonight.


NOT A CLOSE OUT GAME, BUT...

Yes, this is a best of seven series. No the home team has not lost yet in the series. But never in the history of the NBA has a team fallen behind 0-3 in a best of seven series and come back to win. It is extremely rare in professional sports, period. A Celtics loss will put them in an 0-3 hole; Garnett and Allen are probably not coming back next year.

The Celtics must win all three of their games at home and, minimally, win one game in Miami, who has been a tough out at home, to win the series. Their best chance to nab that difficult road win likely came on Wednesday night in an overtime loss. Rajon Rondo (12 PPG, 12 APG) was Superman for a day with 44 points, 10 assists, and 8 rebounds in Game 2.

The Celtics are 2.5 point favorites tonight, very slim. The Fat Lady hasn't sung, but she is warming up. Should the Celtics lose tonight, it will all but close this exciting chapter in the annals of the Boston Celtics and the NBA.

2008 NBA Champions

Image from http://www.clap.name

The Big Secret

One half of the Eastern Conference Finals has been set in the NBA playoffs, with the Miami Heat advancing last night. The other half will be determined on Saturday in Game 7 of the conference semifinal series between the Philadelphia 76ers and the Boston Celtics. This could be Garnett's last game as a Boston Celtics, if not as an NBA player.

I cannot help but wonder if model Marraya, rumored to have been Garnett's mistress, will be on hand in Boston for moral support.

If you're going to take a swing that could backfire on you, swing for the fences a la The Big Ticket!

Image from www.mediatakeout.com via www.lipstickalley.com

Retweet of the Day - May 25, 2012

The Miami Heat advanced to the Eastern Conference finals after closing out their series with the Indiana Pacers in six games. Inevitably, in spite of advancing, LeBron haters were in full force in the Twittersphere. It never ceases to amaze me that, in spite of being male targeted, male driven, and (on the area of play) male dominated, women, time and time again, seem to come up with some of the sharpest, most pointed one-liners about sports.

Today's Daily Hat Trick Retweet of the Day is from Taneshia ‏(@SUSTAINDmind). This was GREAT!

"Hating On Lebron But Fail to Realize Melo = No ring, Durant = No ring, D Rose = No ring, Half of yall moms = No ring #LMAO"

OUCH! Taneshia 1 Baby Mamas 0

Image from www.universalstudiosentertainment.com

Fantastic Five

The Miami Heat defeated the Indiana Pacers tonight, winning the Eastern Conference Semifinal series, 4-2. The Heat will play in the Eastern Conference Finals against the winner of Game 7 between the Philadelphia 76ers and the Boston Celtics in Boston.

As of today we have five teams still alive in the NBA for the 2012 championship. Let's break down the participants and their prospects.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Philadelphia 76ers – Great year for the Sixers and their fans. Outstanding job by Coach Doug Collins. Break out the “I76” by G. Love and Special Sauce.

Stick a fork in ‘em; they’re done. I know I said this when they played the Bulls, even after the Derrick Rose injury, in the first round. Lightning doesn’t strike the same place twice.

It's a little late for Philly to turn to The Doctor. 3

Boston Celtics – Interestingly, only seven teams have lost a Game 7 at home during the last 10 seasons (including 2012). The Celtics account for two of those losses. In fact, in the 66 year history of the (now 30 team) NBA, there have only been 22 times a team dropped a Game 7 at home. The Celtics franchise accounts for four such instances.

Well, Sixers fan, I hope that made you feel better. It ain’t happening on Saturday. Future Hall of Famers Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce, whose combination of forces led to the Celtics’ 2008 NBA Championship, their first in 22 years, could possibly be playing their final game together as teammates due to contract and salary cap issues. I think one would have to pry this game from their cold, dead fingers. That, and the 76ers have outplayed their abilities, have not shot well in the series (an omen of doom in a road playoff elimination game), and simply do not have the total talent that the Celtics have.


 

Miami Heat – Considering the injury to Chris Bosh and the one game suspension of forward Udonis Haslem, I expected the physical Indiana Pacers to force a Game 7 in Miami. The Heat did themselves a huge favor by winning tonight. The Eastern Conference Finals will start on Monday. The 76ers and aging Celtics (whom I, and most, believe will win on Saturday) will battle to the end for the right to travel to Miami and face the Heatles on only one full day of rest.

Bosh will have more time to recover and the 30-something trio of Garnett, Allen, and Pierce will have to keep going like the Energizer Bunny. I expect the Heat to be in the Finals, advancing in 6 games if they face the Celtics or, should the miraculous happen, sweeping the Sixers in four games.

Dwyane Wade score 41 against the Pacers in Game 6. 2

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Oklahoma City Thunder – It is going to be a lot of fun watching the Thunder, who have grown before the eyes of basketball fans during the past three seasons, go toe-to-toe with one to the best teams franchises in recent years, the San Antonio Spurs. I expect the Thunder to be very difficult to beat at the Ford Center in Oklahoma City. I simply do not see how they beat the Spurs, who haven’t lost to anyone since April 11^th (before we forked our hard earned money to Uncle Sam), at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, even once.

In the unlikely event that the Thunder can nab one game in San Antonio, they may have some hope. Otherwise, this promising team of young stars will have to endure one more growing pain on the path to greatness.

San Antonio Spurs – This could be the final championship run for their trio of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobli, and Tony Parker. They are going out with a bang, having won 18 consecutive games. I think that streak comes to an end against the second seeded Thunder, but the Spurs may have done so much damage to the Thunder in this series by the time they suffer that streak-ending loss, that it may be no more than a hiccup on the Spurs’ road to a fifth NBA Championship in 14 seasons.

"There's more where this came from." 1

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