Witnessing Greatness – Wide Receivers

The Daily Hat Trick has run two prior pieces on the prospects of a few active NFL players of being inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio after their careers end. One piece described the prospects of several quarterbacks. Another looked into active NFL running backs. Today, we look at at active NFL wide receivers and their chances of induction in Canton.

(Note: statistics are as of the conclusion of Week 6 of the 2011 NFL season unless otherwise noted)

SLAM DUNK

Terrell Owens, free agent – Owens is currently without a team as he is recovering from offseason knee surgery, though, by his own estimates, he expects to be in playing condition within a few weeks. I have little doubt that someone will sign him once he is cleared to play, as there are several teams badly in need of a receiver.

If he picks up at a level anywhere near where he left off last year, with nearly 1,000 yards and 9 touchdowns receiving (at age 37), his new team will be likely getting a great value. Excluding Jerry Rice, Owens, statistically, is the best receiver ever to play the game, owning, or nearly owning, every career receiving record. Owens is second in NFL history to Rice in receiving touchdowns and receiving yards, and is the NFL’s sixth all time leading receiver, with 1,078 catches. T.O., if he plays for at least half of the 2011 season, would likely surpass the league’s current #3 all-time receiver, Marvin Harrison (1,102 receptions, passed by Tony Gonzalez last Sunday). There are fewer easier “yes” votes for the Hall of Fame that will come up than the vote on Owens.

For all of the controversy that surrounded Owens and his mouth, he is one of a select few who as always walked the walk after talking the talk. The last two seasons, he has not done much talking either, but he is still walking. In the twilight of his career, Owens has looked like a true veteran leader. With a likely price tag of less than $2 million, Owens is in a position to deliver a high reward with minimal risk on one of his final stops on the way to Canton, Ohio.

He always made time for the fans. 1

Randy Moss, retired (2011) – While Moss, technically, announced his retirement shortly before the start of the regular season, I am not buying it. Several media outlets reported that Moss and his agent were shopping for a team with an ideal situation for Moss. For that reason, for the purposes of this article, I am going to treat Moss as an active player.

That said, this is another extremely easy “yes” vote for the Hall of Fame committee. Moss may not have always been the perfect teammate and, based on some accounts, may not have been a good guy. Fortunately, the guidelines for induction to the Hall as a player dictate that those factors are irrelevant. Induction is based solely on play.

Excluding Jerry Rice, only recent retiree Marvin Harrison and 16 year veteran Terrell Owens are in Moss’ class of wide receivers. Moss has only played in 13 NFL seasons, yet, except for Harrison, Owens and Rice, his resume dwarfs all other wide receivers. Moss is tied with Owens for #2 all-time in receiving touchdowns, is the NFL’s 9th all time leading receiver (954 receptions), and is fifth, all-time, for receiving yards. Moss’ height, freakish speed, and leaping ability made him almost unstoppable in his younger years and have kept him in the discussion as a big playmaker in the twilight of his career.

If you have a problem with Moss, It think this would be his response. Think he's a jerk? Maybe he is. You can be a jerk when you can back it up. 2

ON TRACK

Hines Ward, Pittsburgh Steelers - My gut feeling tells me that if Hines Ward stopped playing football today, there would be a bronze bust in Canton in his future. Ward is the NFL's eighth all-time leading receiver, with 980 receptions after last Sunday. He has been to four Pro Bowls, is a three time AFC champion (2005, 2008, and 2010) and is a two-time Super Bowl champion (Super Bowls XL and XLIII). Ward had a string of nine consecutive seasons with 69 or more receptions (2001-2009). He is bar none, the most feared downfield blocking wide receiver in the game, if not in NFL history.

Ward could help the cause of his future candidacy by staying healthy and padding his stats for a few more seasons. Another Super Bowl ring would not hurt his cause either. While I personally believe that Ward's induction is inevitable, he has fewer receiving yards (19th all-time) than several players, such as Henry Ellard (9th all-time), Irving Fryar (13th all-time), and Jimmy Smith (16th all-time), who I think will never become Hall of Fame finalists, let alone inductees. His shortcoming on yardage could preclude Ward from being inducted on the first ballot. Crossing the 100 career receiving touchdown threshold would boost his first ballot prospects. Ward currently has 85.

If were are a defender, would you get in his way? 3

Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts - While Wayne is a player whose Hall of Fame candidacy is boosted significantly by his post season contributions, his regular season resume, by itself, would warrant Hall of Fame consideration if he retired today. Wayne is currently riding a string of five consecutive Pro Bowl appearances. He was named an Associated Press First Team All Pro last season, for the first time in his career.

Wayne has been Steady Eddie in the regular season and has been a vital part of the Colts nine year run of regular season dominance between 2002 and 2010. Wayne currently has seven consecutive 1,000 yard seasons, dating back to 2004. He also currently has a streak of eight consecutive seasons of 68 or more receptions, including three seasons with 100 or more receptions. After a 3 reception performance against New Orleans last Sunday, in all likelihood, Wayne will tie or pass Steve Largent and become one of the NFL's 20 all-time leading receivers during this Sunday's game against the Tennessee Titans, needing two more receptions to do so.

While Wayne's regular season achievements are exemplary, I think that his performances in the playoffs are what will separate him from peers with comparable regular reason resumes when he is considered for the Hall of Fame, six years after his retirement. Wayne played a vital role in leading the Colts to three AFC Championship Games (2003, 2006, 2010), two AFC Championships (2006, 2010), and a Super Bowl Championship (XLI). Wayne has played in 17 playoff games, equivalent to more than an entire regular season. When the stakes are highest, Wayne put up the numbers, with 83 receptions for 9 touchdowns and over 1,000 career post season receiving yards.

The only possible hold ups to Wayne's induction are fate and Father Time. Wayne played the first eight years of his career alongside future Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison, who caught passes that certainly would have been thrown to Wayne. Wayne also did not start all 16 games in the regular season until 2003, when he turned 25. These two factors have applied downward pressure to Wayne's regular season yardage and touchdown totals.

Imagine how many more catches Wayne (right) would have had if he had not been in the shadow of future Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison (left). 4

Andre Johnson, Houston Texans - In the opinion of many pundits, Johnson is the best receiver in the NFL today. Johnson is a tall, strong, dominating receiver who, at many times, gives the appearance that he cannot be covered by mere mortals. In his ninth season, Johnson has never had fewer than 60 receptions in any season, in spite of missing three or more games in three different seasons. A five time Pro Bowler and two time member of the AP First All-Pro Team and averaging 80 yards per game for his career, Johnson simply needs to remain relatively healthy and continue his pattern of dominance for at least three more seasons. That should pave his road to Canton when his career is over.

Double coverage doesn't help much more. 5

POSSIBLE BRIDESMAIDS

Derrick Mason, Houston Texans - Consistency and longevity have their rewards. When Mason retires, barring injury, he will be one of the NFL's 10 all-time leading receivers. He is currently #11 all-time, 11 receptions behind Andre Reed. Derrick Mason has been in the NFL for so long that he is the last active player who was drafted by the Houston Oilers, in 1997.*

However, longevity with limited exceptional play makes for a difficult case for the Hall of Fame. Mason has only been to two Pro Bowls and one AP First All-Pro team. The All-Pro honor was earned largely due to his contributions as a return man.

While Mason has an active streak of 11 consecutive seasons with 60 or more receptions and eight seasons with 1,000 or more receiving yards, Mason only has one season in which he eclipsed the 1,200 yard plateau and only five seasons with 80 or more receptions. Being very good, but not dominant, for a long time might not be enough for Mason to be honored as one of the all time greats.

The last of the Houston Oilers 6

Chad Ochocinco, New England Patriots - The notion that a six time Pro Bowler and two time AP First Team All-Pro at a skill position like wide receiver may be on the bubble for a Hall of Fame induction would have been absolutely laughable 20 years ago. In the modern game, however, with modern rules that favor quarterbacks and wide receivers, Ochocinco could find himself on the Hall of Fame borderline if, in fact, his career is in decline at age 33, as his statistics would indicate.

While among the NFL's top 30 all time leaders in receiving and receiving yards, Ochocinco, with only nine catches in six games this season, will likely finish this season only having had one 1,000 yard season and one Pro Bowl appearance in the past four years. This would indicate decline.

Ochocinco, in only in the 11th year of his career, in an era in which great wide receivers, like Terrell Owens, Randy Moss, and Hines Ward, will likely retire after 15-20 years of service. For all of his years of being among the best in the game at his position, Ochocinco's possible lack of longevity could be a roadblock on his way to Canton.

Ochocinco was solid gold earlier in his career. 7

Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers - Similarly to Ochocinco, Steve Smith had a relatively short run of high level dominance. With four Pro Bowls and two First Team All-Pro awards under his belt, one would think that Smith's career was down a road paved directly to Canton.  The problem for Smith, like Ochocinco, is that he may be slowing down. In addition, Smith has always been very good, but never dominated over a consistent, sustained period of time.

Smith only has two seasons in which he has recorded more than 1,200 receiving yards, though he does have a total of six seasons with 982 or more receiving yards, including five in a row between 2005 and 2009. Smith went from a Herculean 1,421 yards, to 982 yards, to a paltry 554 yards receiving in 2008, 2009, and 2010, respectively. This would indicate a slow down at age 32. However, the arrival of future Rookie of the Year quarterback Cam Newton in Carolina seems to have rejuvenated Smith's productivity. Smith is averaging 117 receiving yards per game for 818 yards through 7 games this year.

Smith's resurgence fits right in to the "consistently inconsistent" label. Smith is certainly among the better receivers of his time. However, without more than a few truly exemplary seasons, unless Smith plays at his current level until age 40, can he really make a case for being among the greatest of all-time?

Steve Smith plays with a furor seldom seen at the wide receiver position. 8

FUTURE HOPEFULS

Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals - Fitzgerald is only 28 years old, yet is already among the NFL's 50 all-time leading receivers. He has completed seven seasons in his career with five Pro Bowl appearances and one AP First Team All-Pro award. Fitzgerald has caught at least 90 passes and recorded at least 1,000 receiving yards in four out of the past five seasons. If Fitzgerald remains healthy and plays into his mid-30s, he should be considered among the league's all-time great receivers when he retires.

Fizgerald is just getting warmed up. 9

Wes Welker, New England Patriots - The criticism that Wes Welker would be useless as an outside receiver, as opposed to his role in the slot, is a useless criticism. Either you catch the ball or you don't. Either you move the ball or you don't. Either you score a touchdown or you don't. If the road less traveled brings a man to his destination in time, what difference does it make how he arrives?

In his 8th season, Welker spent the first three years of his career as a kick return specialist and third/fourth option receiver. That changed with his arrival to the New England Patriots during their Super Bowl run in 2007. Welker recorded a league-high 112 receptions in 2007, the first of three consecutive years in which he would catch 111 or more balls.

Welker is 29 years old and needs to make up for the lost time as a starter in the earlier part of his career. He appears to be doing an excellent job, on pace for 136 receptions and 2,093 receiving yards, which would shatter the NFL record of 1,848 yards set by Jerry Rice in 1995. Welker needs to continue to put up monster receiving numbers for at least another three years and then remain healthy and productive for approximately three more years. Should he do that, he should be able to join the elite in the Hall of Fame.

Welker (left) and All-Pro tackle Matt Light (right) may be joining Tom Brady (center) in the Hall one day. 10

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Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics – NFL 2011

One of the many addictive elements of sports is the number of permutations available for performance statistics to analyzed, presented, and evaluated. In a number of discussions I have had with NFL fans, I have noticed that some fans are surprised by some statistical realities in the NFL, especially regarding career achievements.

Often, the longevity of an above average player can yield counter-intuitive all-time leader rankings for that player. For example, is should surprise nobody that Peyton Manning is the NFL’s all-time leader is passing attempts, completions, and yards among active players. How many of you, unless you read the same fact recently, knew that Kerry Collins was #2, all-time among active players? Number 3 (in passing yards) is Donnovan McNabb and McNabb is not likely to catch Colling this year, even if Collins does not play a single down. Actually, I could publish a Kerry Collins “did you know” fact every day for a month, but I digress.

Here are a few statistical facts that may make you go, “Hmmm…”


Kerry Collins is the NFL’s #11 all time leader in passing yards.

I promise not to make this a collection of Kerry Collins facts. But for a guy who has a career completion percentage well below 60% and has often, in several seasons, thrown more interceptions that touchdowns, it may surprise you to know that Collins is ahead of a lot of Hall of Fame QBs in career passing yards, likely to crack into the top 10 all time by passing Joe Montana this season.

It isn't so hard to forget that Kerry Collins led the Giants to the Super Bowl, is it? 1

Chad Pennington’s career passer rating is over 90, 12th all time in NFL history.

Pennington’s career efficiency rating is better than the likes of Hall of Fame quarterbacks Dan Marino, Jim Kelly, Troy Aikman, and Warren Moon.

Perhaps the Dolphins wouldn't have had the tough years they had if Pennington could stay on the field.  2

Matt Schaub owns the record for the sixth-highest single season passing yardage total in NFL history.

This may not be a cardiac surprise. The Texans have had an explosive offensive attack in recent years. Still, when thinking of the greatest single season performances in the history of the NFL, Schaub’s name is not the first to come to my mind.

Schaub threw for 4,770 yards in 2009, leading the Texans to their first winning season in franchise history. For contrast, Peyton Manning, a virtually certain Hall-of-Famer, has no single season yardage totals in the top 10, all-time, though he does hold positions #11 (4,700 yards – 2010) and #19 (4,557 – 2004).

The Texans have had a number of problems holding them back in recent years, but the quarterback isn't one of them. 3

Thomas Jones, Clinton Portis, and Ricky Williams are all among the NFL’s top 30 all time leading rushers.

All three of these players have had good careers and been named to Pro Bowl teams. Still, that there are fewer than 30 men ever to play the running back position with more rushing yards is surprising to me. These three players have more career rushing yards than Hall of Fame running backs Earl Campbell, Jim Taylor, and Larry Czonka.

Ricky Williams is the biggest surprise to me in this group. Williams has an excellent chance to surpass the 10,000 career rushing yards plateau this season. Keep in mind that Williams has not been an every down, starting running back in 8 years and he missed the entire 2004 and 2006 seasons and, for all practical purposes, missed the entire 2007 season (played in one game).

However, of those three missed seasons, only the 2007 season was missed due to injury. Williams has also averaged over 4 yards per carry in his career. This means that when Williams did, in fact, play, he was healthy and efficient. The consistent performances have added up over time.

People can crack all of the jokes they want. Ricky Williams...Robert Parish...Kareem Abdul-Jabbar...Chris Simms...they all played much longer than they "should have". Coincidence? I think not! 4 

Derrick Mason is the NFL’s 12th all time leading receiver.

Sure, Mason has played for a long time and is a former Pro Bowler and All-Pro. Still, with 924 receptions, he is the NFL’s #12 all-time leading receiver and will likely crack the top 10 this year, barring injury. Mason is ahead of Hall of Famers Steve Largent, James Lofton, Michael Irvin, and Charlie Joiner for career receptions and should pass Art Monk and Andre Reed in 2011 if he has any significant playing time with the New York Jets.

Derrick Mason - This isn't a retro/throwback jersey. This is Mason when he played with the Oilers. Yes, he played when the Oilers still existed as a current NFL franchise. He's been around a L..O..N..G time! 5

Tight end Tony Gonzalez is the NFL’s 10th all time leader in receiving touchdowns.

Tony Gonzalez is a slam dunk to have a bust in Canton, Ohio after his playing days are over. However, for a tight end, as trailblazing and dominant as Gonzalez has been, it gives me pause for reflection, considering that his career total of 88 receiving touchdowns dwarfs Hall of Fame WIDE RECEIVERS such as Fred Beletnikoff, James Lofton, and Bob Hayes. The next closest tight end in career receiving touchdowns is Antonio Gates of the San Diego Chargers, with 69 scores. For contrast, newly inducted Hall of Fame tight end Shannon Sharp is #58 all time in receiving touchdowns, with 62.

I wonder how Gonzalez would have faired in basketball. 6

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End of Lockout Celebration? Not So Fast My Friend!

The NFL lockout is over. Pop the champagne bottles! Break out the party favors!! We can all celebrate!!!

Well, not all of us. Now that the ink is on the paper and the deal is done, NFL teams ARE back to the business of football. Unfortunately, the business of football is not all glamour, glory and pleasantries. The new collective bargaining agreement brings us back to the realities of salary cap casualties.


The 2010 season was an uncapped year. There is a cap in 2011, meaning teams will have to go through this, always, difficult, unpleasant, but fiscally necessary annual exercise. Some players, usually veterans, usually good players, often fan favorites, and, sometimes, all-time franchise greats have to turn in their playbooks, often after an entire career of service. Their clubs simply cannot afford to keep them at their salary for the upcoming season.

Today, the Hat Trick is going to look at a few teams and players that have no choice but to part ways. As I said yesterday, the free agency movements will be fast and furious, compared to years past. These players may have signed a contract with a new team or have been retained by their current team at a restructured/reduced salary by the time you read this article. Nonetheless, here are some big names of players are will likely be cut or are in danger of being cut for cap purposes.

There is no putting lipstick on the piggy bank. 1

BALTIMORE RAVENS HOUSE CLEANING

It would be a shame for the last act, as Ravens, for tight end Todd Heap, wide receiver Derrick Mason, and running back Willis McGahee to be turning in their playbooks and equipment, right before being shown the door. Derrick Mason is the NFL’s 12th all-time leading receiver, with a chance to be in the Hall of Fame one day. Todd Heap is the NFL’s 5th all-time leading receiver among active tight ends. McGahee is the Ravens’ third all-time leading rusher in franchise history. All three of these players, at some point, are likely to honored by the team in some manner, such as placement in the Ring of Honor, after they retire. All three may have ended their days with the Ravens by being unceremoniously cut before training camp.

I expect all three players to be able to play football in 2011, should they choose. I think there is zero chance of McGahee returning to the Ravens, with Ray Rice already established as the starter. Mason retired, then unretired, less than a month later, from the Ravens in 2009. While still productive, I am unsure how much of a pay cut Mason would be willing to accept to return to Baltimore. The same applies to Heap. I think the Ravens would have a spot for him at the right price.

In spite of bending over backwards for the Ravens during his career, Mason was sent packing on Monday. 2

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Donovan McNabb, QB: I would never say “never” to any question regarding the Washington Redskins that should be answered using logic and reason. Owner Dan Snyder somehow infected Mike Shanahan, whose reputation was unimpeachable before his arrival in our nation’s capital, with the dysfunction and irrationality with which Snyder has run the Redskins during his tenure as owner.


Shanahan appears to not get along with Donovan McNabb and it appears as though the marriage between the coach and QB cannot work. Assuming the Redskins do not floor all of us (though the “floor”, when it comes to the Redskins, is well padded due to frequent use) and keep McNabb as the starter, the QB will be released or traded. There are several NFL teams with good, contender-caliber components everywhere on the field except under center. Granted, 2010 was McNabb’s worst season as a pro, but considering his team, many may be inclined to give him a mulligan.


Albert Haynesworth, DT: Physically, Haynesworth is one of the biggest freaks in the history of the defensive tackle position. His salary, with respect to his performance and motivation with the Redskins, however, is outrageous. The Redskins are in the undesirable position of having to trade Haynesworth and getting little in return, while feeling some salary cap pain in penalties, triggered by Haynesworth’s titanic signing bonus from 2009 in his $100 million contract, or cut Haynesworth and take a titanic pounding in salary cap penalties because they cannot convince another team to throw millions down the black hole that is Fat Albert.

You would be amazed at how many knee slappers like this you can find about Haynesworth on the Internet. 3

CINCINNATI BENGALS

Carson Palmer, QB: Carson Palmer put his house up for sale during the offseason, demanded a trade from the Bengals (which I completely understand), and said he would retire before playing again for Cincinnati. Bengals Owner Paul Brown said he would not reward a player for refusing to report by trading him.


Yeah, yeah. That’s great, Mr. Brown, except nothing from nothing leaves nothing. Palmer does not appear to be bluffing and the Bengals will get nothing for a starting QB in his prime if they refuse to deal him. Oatmeal is better than no meal.


Chad Ochocinco, WR: Chad Ochocinco is still a productive wide receiver, worth more to the market than his $6 million salary. However, the expectations in Cincinnati are low next season. With no legitimate, experienced NFL QB in Cincinnati and almost no chance of resigning Ochocinco after this season, the Bengals may be poised to release the former Pro Bowl wide receiver or trade him.

You think I'm sticking around after this year? Pssttt! CHILD PLEASE! 4

OTHER HIGH PROFILE BUBBLE PLAYERS

Steve Smith, WR – Carolina Panthers: Smith is probably a Hall-of-Famer. The leading receiver in Panthers history was not happy with the state of affairs in Carolina at the end of last year. With a hefty salary, an age greater than 30, and chronic injury problems, Smith is likely to be on the salary cap chopping block.

This could be a win-win. When Smith IS healthy, he is lethal to opposing defenses. Smith has good years left in his tank. The question is, “How many?”


Reggie Bush, RB – New Orleans Saints: If you have been reading the Hat Trick for any extended period of time, you know that I am a New Orleans native and may be somewhat biased. I will try to be objective. Here goes….

Bush is due nearly $12 million in salary next year and he will not collect that. Casual observers of the Saints may assume that he will simply be cut because he is not an every down running back and he has been hampered by injuries throughout his career. Die hards, like me, understand Bush’s value to the offense and the team. More so, so does Saints Head Coach Sean Payton and his opinion is one of a small few that actually counts. Since the Saints control his rights and, I believe, will make a good faith effort to keep him, I think they will make Bush a fair, probably slightly favorable, offer reflective of his true, current NFL market value.


Not everybody can fly to the end zone from the 6 yard line. 5

 Roy Williams, WR – Dallas Cowboys: The status of Roy Williams’ future with the Cowboys has been a soap opera since his arrival in Big D. When Williams joined the Cowboys via a trade with the Detroit Lions in 2008, the consensus opinion was that Williams was being brought in to replace Terrell Owens and be the Cowboys primary target in the future. Williams is earning franchise receiver money, but the “washed up” T.O. put up better numbers than Williams in less-than-desirable offenses in Buffalo and Cincinnati in 2009 and 2010, respectively, and then-rookie receiver Dez Bryant excelled last season. Something’s gotta give.


Lee Evans, WR – Buffalo Bills: The third all-time leading receiver in franchise history (Andre’ Reed, Eric Moulds) is earning a Pro Bowler’s salary but has not looked anything like an NFL standout since 2008. Granted, the Bills have had myriad issues on offense and at the quarterback position over the past several years. Regardless, the emergence of young Stevie Johnson as a favorite target for quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick may make Evans, and his salary cap liability, expendable.


David Garrard, QB – Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jags drafted QB Blaine Gabbert in the first round of the 2011 NFL Draft. Garrard is expected to earn close to $8 million in 2011. The Jaguars were in contention for a playoff spot until the end of the 2010 season, so a change at quarterback may be unlikely before the season starts. However, if the Jags get off to a very bad start (such as an 0-3 or 0-4 start), not beyond the realm of possibilities, Garrard and his salary may come off of the Jaguars books before the trade deadline.


Nick Barnett, LB – Green Bay Packers: Barnett announced this afternoon that he would not be with the Packers this season. The eight year veteran starting linebacker and member of last year’s Super Bowl champion Packers team missed most of last season due to injury and would have counted $4 million against the salary cap, according to ESPN.com, perhaps too much for a 30 year old LB riddled with injury problems in recent years. Barnett had missed 19 regular season games during the past three years.


Nate Clements, CB – San Francisco 49ers: Clements, according to ESPN, will count $17 million against the cap this season. The 31 year old cornerback has seen his productivity decline since joining the 49ers, though he still has some tread left on his tires.


Vince Young, QB – Tennessee Titans: With the Titans announcement, last season, that they intended to sever ties with Young, the use of their first round pick in the 2011 draft to acquire quarterback Jake Locker, and the $13 million cap liability attached to Young, the question is “Where will he end up?” and not “Will the Titans release him?”

He needs a team, too. 6

Get your popcorn ready!


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