If That Was The Worst, Beware of The Best

DOH! 1

Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning threw a clunker of a game last night (24/37, 241 yds., TD, 3 INT). Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan was highly efficient and effective (24/36, 219 yds., 2 TD, 0 INT). The Falcons won, no “ifs”, “ands”, or “buts”. It is a good thing for Falcons Fan that there were no “ifs”, “ands” or “buts”, because an “if” here or a “but” there and the Broncos win the game.

IF

A blind man could see the big “if”. If Peyton Manning doesn’t serve up three interceptions in the Broncos’ first three possessions, particularly the first one, everything else being equal, the Broncos probably win the game. ESPN analyst and former NFL quarterback Trent Dilfer said, after the game, that he thought Peyton Manning was simply tricked in the early possessions. The Falcons took advantage of Manning’s year long hiatus from the NFL and successfully disguised coverages so well that Manning didn’t know what hit him until four team turnovers and one quarter of football later.

William Moore (25): "GOTCHA!" 2

AND

The Broncos defense simply could not come up with answers for Falcons tight end Tony Gonzalez (7 rec., 70 yds., TD) or wide receiver Roddy White (8 rec., 102 yds., TD). They could not get to Ryan, who was only sacked once and appeared comfortable in the pocket for most of the evening. And while the Falcons did not run all over the Broncos during the entire game, Falcons running back Michael Turner (17 att., 42 yds., TD) made critical plays that could ultimately account for the Broncos’ doom.

Turner scored a touchdown on 3rd and goal at the Broncos’ 1 yard line early in the game and converted a first down on the Falcons’ final possession to run out the clock. Even without big statistics, Turner made big plays when it mattered most, as did several other Falcons players. They drained the Broncos’ life force at the most critical times.

Turner was contained but not stopped, not stopped during the game, anyway. Turner was reportedly arrested on suspicion of driving under the influence of alcohol in the early hours of Tuesday morning following the win. 4

BUT

The big “but” was Atlanta’s final drive. The Broncos had two timeouts remaining plus the two minute warning to stop the clock after the Broncos closed the Falcons’ lead to six points on a Willis McGahee (22 att., 113 yds., 2 TD) touchdown run with roughly three and a half minutes remaining. Atlanta converted two critical first downs to slam the door on the Broncos, BUT IF they didn’t AND IF Peyton Manning got the ball back with any significant amount of time remaining in the game, the result, in spite of Manning playing his worst game, statistically, in several years, may have still been a Broncos victory.

He just doesn't go away until there are all zeroes on the clock. 3

IT’S A LONG SEASON

The end result of Peyton Manning playing his worst is that the hosting Atlanta Falcons were able to hand on to a six point lead that was once as high as 20. The Falcons were able to run out the clock. Since Ryan has been the quarterback of the Falcons, his team has been a playoff contender in every season. The rest of the NFL saw Manning do his worst. I would like to hear how teams plan to stop the Broncos when he is at his best.


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Is Tim Tebow Wearing Cleats or Horse Shoes?

Wow. Just wow. The Hat Trick ran a piece the week before last expressing the awe that I, and most of the sporting world, is feeling from Tim Tebow’s (852 yds., 8 TD, 1 INT, 46% comp.) logic-defying good fortune. The stunning circumstances under which the Broncos beat the New York Jets is well known. Most assumed that the good fortune had to stop eventually. Then Tebow pulls another rabbit out of the hat with a come from behind overtime win over the San Diego Chargers.

Tebow, pictured with Playboy Playmate and rumored to-be girlfriend Erin Drewes, is lucky on a number of fronts. 1

WHY WE’RE SCRATCHING OUR HEADS

Tebow (9/18, 143 yds., 1 TD vs Chargers), for the fourth consecutive week, completed 10 or fewer passes in a game. For the seventh consecutive week, Tebow could not complete more than half of his passes in a game (Tebow has passed in seven games this season). For the fourth time in six weeks, the Broncos won after trailing in the fourth quarter (trailing by 10 at some point in three of those games).

All of these factors fly in the face of the reality that the Broncos won the aforementioned games and are just one game back of the Oakland Raiders for first place in the AFC West. The NFL is not a league conducive to late comebacks. The worst team in the league is made up of good players. Any ill-prepared team or any team lacking effort can be beaten by an opponent with a vastly inferior record.

Unlike college football, the gap in talent between the best and worst teams is fairly thin. The expression “any given Sunday” isn’t just a cute phrase; it’s reality. You’ve never heard the expression “any given Saturday” have you? Monumental upsets in college football are extremely rare because the bigger schools can impose their wills on smaller schools. In the NFL, if you fail to plan, you have planned to fail, no matter how much talent you have.

This makes rapid-fire scoring difficult in the NFL. It makes last minute game winning drives rare. When players like John Elway and Dan Marino make a habit of it, they get into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Tebow is not in the class of either of those quarterbacks and probably never will be. All of this feeds into the Tebow frenzy sweeping the NFL fan base at the moment.

The first time I saw this, I chuckled. I'm chuckling less with each passing week. Maybe Tebow does have angels in the backfield? 2

WHY THIS IS HAPPENING

The first misconception that the casual NFL fan may buy into is that Tim Tebow is primarily responsible for the Broncos’ success in 2011. As often occurs, the quarterback gets too much credit for winning and too much blame for losing. Tebow has executed successfully in critical situations. He is not the main reason that the Broncos are in the hunt.

First, the Broncos defense is stifling. They are near the middle of the pack in total defense over the course of the season, but in their run of five wins in the past six games, the Broncos defense is only surrendering 12 points per game. When I read that number, 12 points per game against, the 1985 Chicago Bears and 2000 Baltimore Ravens defenses immediately come to mind. What happened to those teams? They won the Super Bowl. In the case of the Ravens, the offense wasn’t very good. Denver’s defense has given them a chance to win every week during this run.

Second, the Broncos have the #1 rushing attack in the NFL. Tebow is partly responsible for this, with 455 rushing yards on the year and a 5.8 yards per carry average. Willis McGahee parted ways with the Baltimore Ravens this past season, as the Ravens gave the lions’ share of the carries to Ray Rice during the prior two seasons. He is playing like a man with something to prove and it is translating into success on the field, as he is on pace to eclipse 1,000 rushing yards and is averaging close to 5 yards per carry.

Third, and this is within Tebow’s control, when Tebow DOES throw the football, he puts it in a place where one of two things will happen: the pass will fall incomplete (which happens most of the time) or it will be caught for a big gain. What Tebow does not do is turn the ball over (only one interception in 143 attempts).

McGahee is a man on a mission. 4

SHOW ME THE DATA

The result? Tebow’s passer efficiency rating, driven heavily by yards per attempt and TD/INT ratio, is 80.5. That isn’t Pro Bowl material, but it isn’t bad, either. He has thrown very few passes per game, relative to other QBs, but his rating is less than two points behind those of Andy Dalton, Cam Newton, Mark Sanchez, and Philip Rivers, and ahead of Mike Vick and Joe Flacco. More telling, Tebow’s rating in four of his five wins as a starter were 91.7, 98.1, 102.6, and 95.4 against the Dolphins, Raiders, Chiefs, and Chargers, respectively.

Those 90-something numbers are not only Pro Bowl numbers, but Hall of Fame level QB ratings. In other words, when Tebow releases the ball, the most common result is that nothing is ventured nor gained, but when the ball is caught, defenses will pay. Tebow’s accuracy issues, whether by accident or by design, appear to be confusing defenses in key moments.

Tebow is not only missing his own receivers, but he often puts the ball nowhere near anybody. Since the receivers know the routes and the plays, they are going to have a better idea of where the ball might be and can adjust to get to the ball. This is only my crazy theory. Regardless, as long as Tebow plays “keep away” from defenders, the Broncos’ highly unorthodox recipe for beating mediocre to above average teams has a chance to work.

Perhaps it is more than just the stars lining up for Tim Tebow? 3

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The Daily Hat Trick is sponsored by Sports N Stuff. For great deals on jerseys, shirts, cologne, and other guy stuff, visit http://www.sportsnstuff.biz/.

Statistical source: www.espn.com
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End of Lockout Celebration? Not So Fast My Friend!

The NFL lockout is over. Pop the champagne bottles! Break out the party favors!! We can all celebrate!!!

Well, not all of us. Now that the ink is on the paper and the deal is done, NFL teams ARE back to the business of football. Unfortunately, the business of football is not all glamour, glory and pleasantries. The new collective bargaining agreement brings us back to the realities of salary cap casualties.


The 2010 season was an uncapped year. There is a cap in 2011, meaning teams will have to go through this, always, difficult, unpleasant, but fiscally necessary annual exercise. Some players, usually veterans, usually good players, often fan favorites, and, sometimes, all-time franchise greats have to turn in their playbooks, often after an entire career of service. Their clubs simply cannot afford to keep them at their salary for the upcoming season.

Today, the Hat Trick is going to look at a few teams and players that have no choice but to part ways. As I said yesterday, the free agency movements will be fast and furious, compared to years past. These players may have signed a contract with a new team or have been retained by their current team at a restructured/reduced salary by the time you read this article. Nonetheless, here are some big names of players are will likely be cut or are in danger of being cut for cap purposes.

There is no putting lipstick on the piggy bank. 1

BALTIMORE RAVENS HOUSE CLEANING

It would be a shame for the last act, as Ravens, for tight end Todd Heap, wide receiver Derrick Mason, and running back Willis McGahee to be turning in their playbooks and equipment, right before being shown the door. Derrick Mason is the NFL’s 12th all-time leading receiver, with a chance to be in the Hall of Fame one day. Todd Heap is the NFL’s 5th all-time leading receiver among active tight ends. McGahee is the Ravens’ third all-time leading rusher in franchise history. All three of these players, at some point, are likely to honored by the team in some manner, such as placement in the Ring of Honor, after they retire. All three may have ended their days with the Ravens by being unceremoniously cut before training camp.

I expect all three players to be able to play football in 2011, should they choose. I think there is zero chance of McGahee returning to the Ravens, with Ray Rice already established as the starter. Mason retired, then unretired, less than a month later, from the Ravens in 2009. While still productive, I am unsure how much of a pay cut Mason would be willing to accept to return to Baltimore. The same applies to Heap. I think the Ravens would have a spot for him at the right price.

In spite of bending over backwards for the Ravens during his career, Mason was sent packing on Monday. 2

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Donovan McNabb, QB: I would never say “never” to any question regarding the Washington Redskins that should be answered using logic and reason. Owner Dan Snyder somehow infected Mike Shanahan, whose reputation was unimpeachable before his arrival in our nation’s capital, with the dysfunction and irrationality with which Snyder has run the Redskins during his tenure as owner.


Shanahan appears to not get along with Donovan McNabb and it appears as though the marriage between the coach and QB cannot work. Assuming the Redskins do not floor all of us (though the “floor”, when it comes to the Redskins, is well padded due to frequent use) and keep McNabb as the starter, the QB will be released or traded. There are several NFL teams with good, contender-caliber components everywhere on the field except under center. Granted, 2010 was McNabb’s worst season as a pro, but considering his team, many may be inclined to give him a mulligan.


Albert Haynesworth, DT: Physically, Haynesworth is one of the biggest freaks in the history of the defensive tackle position. His salary, with respect to his performance and motivation with the Redskins, however, is outrageous. The Redskins are in the undesirable position of having to trade Haynesworth and getting little in return, while feeling some salary cap pain in penalties, triggered by Haynesworth’s titanic signing bonus from 2009 in his $100 million contract, or cut Haynesworth and take a titanic pounding in salary cap penalties because they cannot convince another team to throw millions down the black hole that is Fat Albert.

You would be amazed at how many knee slappers like this you can find about Haynesworth on the Internet. 3

CINCINNATI BENGALS

Carson Palmer, QB: Carson Palmer put his house up for sale during the offseason, demanded a trade from the Bengals (which I completely understand), and said he would retire before playing again for Cincinnati. Bengals Owner Paul Brown said he would not reward a player for refusing to report by trading him.


Yeah, yeah. That’s great, Mr. Brown, except nothing from nothing leaves nothing. Palmer does not appear to be bluffing and the Bengals will get nothing for a starting QB in his prime if they refuse to deal him. Oatmeal is better than no meal.


Chad Ochocinco, WR: Chad Ochocinco is still a productive wide receiver, worth more to the market than his $6 million salary. However, the expectations in Cincinnati are low next season. With no legitimate, experienced NFL QB in Cincinnati and almost no chance of resigning Ochocinco after this season, the Bengals may be poised to release the former Pro Bowl wide receiver or trade him.

You think I'm sticking around after this year? Pssttt! CHILD PLEASE! 4

OTHER HIGH PROFILE BUBBLE PLAYERS

Steve Smith, WR – Carolina Panthers: Smith is probably a Hall-of-Famer. The leading receiver in Panthers history was not happy with the state of affairs in Carolina at the end of last year. With a hefty salary, an age greater than 30, and chronic injury problems, Smith is likely to be on the salary cap chopping block.

This could be a win-win. When Smith IS healthy, he is lethal to opposing defenses. Smith has good years left in his tank. The question is, “How many?”


Reggie Bush, RB – New Orleans Saints: If you have been reading the Hat Trick for any extended period of time, you know that I am a New Orleans native and may be somewhat biased. I will try to be objective. Here goes….

Bush is due nearly $12 million in salary next year and he will not collect that. Casual observers of the Saints may assume that he will simply be cut because he is not an every down running back and he has been hampered by injuries throughout his career. Die hards, like me, understand Bush’s value to the offense and the team. More so, so does Saints Head Coach Sean Payton and his opinion is one of a small few that actually counts. Since the Saints control his rights and, I believe, will make a good faith effort to keep him, I think they will make Bush a fair, probably slightly favorable, offer reflective of his true, current NFL market value.


Not everybody can fly to the end zone from the 6 yard line. 5

 Roy Williams, WR – Dallas Cowboys: The status of Roy Williams’ future with the Cowboys has been a soap opera since his arrival in Big D. When Williams joined the Cowboys via a trade with the Detroit Lions in 2008, the consensus opinion was that Williams was being brought in to replace Terrell Owens and be the Cowboys primary target in the future. Williams is earning franchise receiver money, but the “washed up” T.O. put up better numbers than Williams in less-than-desirable offenses in Buffalo and Cincinnati in 2009 and 2010, respectively, and then-rookie receiver Dez Bryant excelled last season. Something’s gotta give.


Lee Evans, WR – Buffalo Bills: The third all-time leading receiver in franchise history (Andre’ Reed, Eric Moulds) is earning a Pro Bowler’s salary but has not looked anything like an NFL standout since 2008. Granted, the Bills have had myriad issues on offense and at the quarterback position over the past several years. Regardless, the emergence of young Stevie Johnson as a favorite target for quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick may make Evans, and his salary cap liability, expendable.


David Garrard, QB – Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jags drafted QB Blaine Gabbert in the first round of the 2011 NFL Draft. Garrard is expected to earn close to $8 million in 2011. The Jaguars were in contention for a playoff spot until the end of the 2010 season, so a change at quarterback may be unlikely before the season starts. However, if the Jags get off to a very bad start (such as an 0-3 or 0-4 start), not beyond the realm of possibilities, Garrard and his salary may come off of the Jaguars books before the trade deadline.


Nick Barnett, LB – Green Bay Packers: Barnett announced this afternoon that he would not be with the Packers this season. The eight year veteran starting linebacker and member of last year’s Super Bowl champion Packers team missed most of last season due to injury and would have counted $4 million against the salary cap, according to ESPN.com, perhaps too much for a 30 year old LB riddled with injury problems in recent years. Barnett had missed 19 regular season games during the past three years.


Nate Clements, CB – San Francisco 49ers: Clements, according to ESPN, will count $17 million against the cap this season. The 31 year old cornerback has seen his productivity decline since joining the 49ers, though he still has some tread left on his tires.


Vince Young, QB – Tennessee Titans: With the Titans announcement, last season, that they intended to sever ties with Young, the use of their first round pick in the 2011 draft to acquire quarterback Jake Locker, and the $13 million cap liability attached to Young, the question is “Where will he end up?” and not “Will the Titans release him?”

He needs a team, too. 6

Get your popcorn ready!


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