Witnessing Greatness - Quarterbacks

In August, the Pro Football Hall of Fame inducted one of its most accomplished classes of players. Marshall Faulk, Deion Sanders, Shannon Sharpe were among the inductees. Players, likely to be inducted within the next few years, such as Cris Carter, Willie Roaf, Curtis Martin, and Jerome Bettis had to be passed over because of the eligibility of so many great players.

This season, players such as Tiki Barber, Keyshawn Johnson, and Drew Bledsoe are among the modern era nominees for the 2012 class. Not long ago, we were looking at these players’ names in box scores (and Barber could be in box scores again soon if he has his way). This gave me pause to reflect upon which players are playing now that we can expect to see with a bust in Canton, Ohio one day.

Today is the first part of a series of articles in which we look at possible future Hall of Fame players, beginning with quarterbacks.


SLAM DUNK

Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts – Possibly the greatest quarterback of all time. In the unlikely event that Manning does not return from neck surgery, his place is football history is very secure.

Tom Brady, New England Patriots – If not the best, then one of the two best quarterbacks playing the game right now (Aaron Rodgers being the other).

First name, "No,"; Last name, "Brainers" 1

ON TRACK

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints – Brees would have a chance of enshrinement if he retired now. Each stellar performance, however, further cements Brees’ induction into the Hall.

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers – Three Super Bowl appearances, two championships, and a host of Pro Bowls and other awards have probably all but guaranteed Roethlisberger’s enshrinement if he plays competently for a few more seasons.

Donovan McNabb, Minnesota Vikings – McNabb’s resume through the first eleven years of his career should be sufficient to get him into Canton. He would help his cause, however, if he can help the Vikings break out of their 1-4 funk, in addition to one more Pro Bowl worthy season.

Brees has already done the heavy lifting for his Hall of Fame case. The Lombardi trophy, not his son.... 2

POSSIBLE BRIDESMAIDS

Each year, there are over 100 nominees for the Hall of Fame, eventually trimmed down to no more than 7 players receiving enshrinement. The following are players who have had quality careers and will likely receive nomination, but are not likely to be enshrined.

Matt Hasselbeck, Tennessee Titans – Six playoff appearances, including five straight…five division championships, including four straight, and one NFC Championship. Three time Pro Bowler…. Hasselbeck lacked a high level dominating presence through an extended period of time.

Kerry Collins, Indianapolis Colts – Tenth all time in NFL career passing yards, with over 40,000; four playoff appearances, three division championships, one NFC championship. Two time Pro Bowler…. Collins lacks the completion percentage, touchdown to interception ratio, awards or efficiency to be enshrined in the Hall of Fame.

A win in Super Bowl XL may have pushed Hasselbeck a little closer to the front of the line. 3

FUTURE HOPEFULS

There are some players who, due to tenure or lack of total career accomplishments, could not realistically receive consideration for the Hall of Fame if their careers ended today. However, if they stay on their current paths, they probably will wear the crème colored jacket one day.

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers – Brett Favre may be surprised that Rodgers did not lead the Packers to a Super Bowl win sooner. I will be surprised if Rodgers does not, at least, bring the Packers back to one.

Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers – A very long career, playing at the level he plays at today, and/or some Super Bowl hardware will probably put Rivers’ famous face on a bronze bust.

Eli Manning, New York Giants – Manning took the first step away from the shadow of his older brother, Peyton, when he led his team to a win over the previously unbeaten New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. Another trip to the big game will probably put Manning on the Hall of Fame Committee’s radar after his career is over.

Rodgers' first Super Bowl win...may not be his last. 4

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Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics – NFL 2011

One of the many addictive elements of sports is the number of permutations available for performance statistics to analyzed, presented, and evaluated. In a number of discussions I have had with NFL fans, I have noticed that some fans are surprised by some statistical realities in the NFL, especially regarding career achievements.

Often, the longevity of an above average player can yield counter-intuitive all-time leader rankings for that player. For example, is should surprise nobody that Peyton Manning is the NFL’s all-time leader is passing attempts, completions, and yards among active players. How many of you, unless you read the same fact recently, knew that Kerry Collins was #2, all-time among active players? Number 3 (in passing yards) is Donnovan McNabb and McNabb is not likely to catch Colling this year, even if Collins does not play a single down. Actually, I could publish a Kerry Collins “did you know” fact every day for a month, but I digress.

Here are a few statistical facts that may make you go, “Hmmm…”


Kerry Collins is the NFL’s #11 all time leader in passing yards.

I promise not to make this a collection of Kerry Collins facts. But for a guy who has a career completion percentage well below 60% and has often, in several seasons, thrown more interceptions that touchdowns, it may surprise you to know that Collins is ahead of a lot of Hall of Fame QBs in career passing yards, likely to crack into the top 10 all time by passing Joe Montana this season.

It isn't so hard to forget that Kerry Collins led the Giants to the Super Bowl, is it? 1

Chad Pennington’s career passer rating is over 90, 12th all time in NFL history.

Pennington’s career efficiency rating is better than the likes of Hall of Fame quarterbacks Dan Marino, Jim Kelly, Troy Aikman, and Warren Moon.

Perhaps the Dolphins wouldn't have had the tough years they had if Pennington could stay on the field.  2

Matt Schaub owns the record for the sixth-highest single season passing yardage total in NFL history.

This may not be a cardiac surprise. The Texans have had an explosive offensive attack in recent years. Still, when thinking of the greatest single season performances in the history of the NFL, Schaub’s name is not the first to come to my mind.

Schaub threw for 4,770 yards in 2009, leading the Texans to their first winning season in franchise history. For contrast, Peyton Manning, a virtually certain Hall-of-Famer, has no single season yardage totals in the top 10, all-time, though he does hold positions #11 (4,700 yards – 2010) and #19 (4,557 – 2004).

The Texans have had a number of problems holding them back in recent years, but the quarterback isn't one of them. 3

Thomas Jones, Clinton Portis, and Ricky Williams are all among the NFL’s top 30 all time leading rushers.

All three of these players have had good careers and been named to Pro Bowl teams. Still, that there are fewer than 30 men ever to play the running back position with more rushing yards is surprising to me. These three players have more career rushing yards than Hall of Fame running backs Earl Campbell, Jim Taylor, and Larry Czonka.

Ricky Williams is the biggest surprise to me in this group. Williams has an excellent chance to surpass the 10,000 career rushing yards plateau this season. Keep in mind that Williams has not been an every down, starting running back in 8 years and he missed the entire 2004 and 2006 seasons and, for all practical purposes, missed the entire 2007 season (played in one game).

However, of those three missed seasons, only the 2007 season was missed due to injury. Williams has also averaged over 4 yards per carry in his career. This means that when Williams did, in fact, play, he was healthy and efficient. The consistent performances have added up over time.

People can crack all of the jokes they want. Ricky Williams...Robert Parish...Kareem Abdul-Jabbar...Chris Simms...they all played much longer than they "should have". Coincidence? I think not! 4 

Derrick Mason is the NFL’s 12th all time leading receiver.

Sure, Mason has played for a long time and is a former Pro Bowler and All-Pro. Still, with 924 receptions, he is the NFL’s #12 all-time leading receiver and will likely crack the top 10 this year, barring injury. Mason is ahead of Hall of Famers Steve Largent, James Lofton, Michael Irvin, and Charlie Joiner for career receptions and should pass Art Monk and Andre Reed in 2011 if he has any significant playing time with the New York Jets.

Derrick Mason - This isn't a retro/throwback jersey. This is Mason when he played with the Oilers. Yes, he played when the Oilers still existed as a current NFL franchise. He's been around a L..O..N..G time! 5

Tight end Tony Gonzalez is the NFL’s 10th all time leader in receiving touchdowns.

Tony Gonzalez is a slam dunk to have a bust in Canton, Ohio after his playing days are over. However, for a tight end, as trailblazing and dominant as Gonzalez has been, it gives me pause for reflection, considering that his career total of 88 receiving touchdowns dwarfs Hall of Fame WIDE RECEIVERS such as Fred Beletnikoff, James Lofton, and Bob Hayes. The next closest tight end in career receiving touchdowns is Antonio Gates of the San Diego Chargers, with 69 scores. For contrast, newly inducted Hall of Fame tight end Shannon Sharp is #58 all time in receiving touchdowns, with 62.

I wonder how Gonzalez would have faired in basketball. 6

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