Witnessing Greatness – Running Backs

Last Friday, The Daily Hat Trick ran a piece about active NFL quarterbacks and their chances of being inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. This week, we will focus on the other part of the offensive backfield, the running back position. The NFL has a number of players who will be nominated for football immortality at the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio. Only a select few will make it.


SLAM DUNK

LaDainian Tomlinson, New York Jets – There couldn’t be an easier “yes” vote for the Hall of Fame. Besides the fact that he is the NFL’s all time active leading rusher, sixth leading rusher in the history of the game*, third all time leader in NFL history for touchdowns, second all time for rushing touchdowns, and has over 18,000 career yards from scrimmage…besides all of that…he’s still a productive player. Coming off of the bench, Tomlinson is the Jets third leading receiver (as of Monday morning), with 14 receptions, and the team’s second leading rusher. In his two seasons with the Jets, past the age of 30, he averages 4.1 yards per carry.


Looks like L.T. made it off of Revis Island before coming to the Jets. 1

 ON TRACK

Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams – With over 8,000 career rushing yards and 10,000 career yards from scrimmage, the chances of Jackson NOT being inducted reduce exponentially with each carry. Jackson is in the 8th year of his career, but, having entered the NFL at age 21, is still two years from the dreaded age of 30 for an NFL running back. It is only a matter of time before Jackson begins to show signs of slowing down. By that time, his induction should be all but certain, barring major injury. Even if Jackson retired today, he would have an outside shot at Canton in the near future.

Jackson's bust should include a stiff-arm. 2

Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers – Gore should be in the NFL’s top 50 all time leading rushers by the end of month, possibly the end of this week (barring an injury or two uncharacteristically bad performances). Gore is only 27 years old, meaning he has ample time to add to his impressive resume. With the 49ers off to a 5-1 start, the idea of a Super Bowl ring is no longer far-fetched. A championship in concert with a couple of more seasons similar to his first seven should cement Gore’s legacy as one of the NFL’s all-time greats.



"Get outta my way! I've got to get to Canton!" 3


Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings – At age 25, Peterson already has more career rushing yards than Hall of Famers Gayle Sayers, Ollie Matson, Lenny Moore, Hugh McElhenny, and Steve Van Buren and he may pass Hall of Fame running back Floyd Little on his next carry. Averaging over 1,400 yards per year, Peterson, assuming he stays healthy, can hang up his cleats three years from now, before age 30, and be a slam dunk inductee.

Did I mention he is only 25? 4

POSSIBLE BRIDESMAIDS

Thomas Jones, Kansas City Chiefs – The notion that a running back with more than 10,000 career rushing yards, who is still starting, could be a longshot for the Hall could sound laughable. However, that is the boat in which Thomas Jones may find himself. Jones is among the NFL’s 25 all time leading rushers. Only two players, Super Bowl XXV MVP Ottis “O.J.” Anderson and Super Bowl XXIX champion Ricky Watters, have more than 10,000 career rushing yards, have been retired for 10 or more years, and are not in the Hall of Fame.

While I personally think that Anderson and Watters’ exclusions from the Hall are a travesty, Jones may join them. Watters’ exclusion, in my opinion, defies all logic and reason; it’s outrageous to me. Statistics never tell 100% of the story in football, but to exclude Watters, I think the voters must be collectively and categorically ignoring Watters’ career statistics altogether. Please email me if you disagree; I’d love to know why.

O.J. Anderson’s case is a tougher sell. Jones’ career more closely resembles that of Anderson. Like Anderson, Jones had a long period of average, unspectacular play – Anderson in the last eight years of his career and Jones in the first five of his. Like Anderson, Jones’ awards trophy cupboard is a little bare. Jones only has one Pro Bowl appearance, in an era with multiple alternates receiving invitations, and has never made Associated Press First Team All-Pro (or second team…or any other first or second All Pro team, such as Sporting News or Pro Football Writers). Anderson made the Pro Bowl in his first two seasons and was on one Associated Press All-Pro First team.

Like in this rushing attempt, Thomas Jones may be stopped short of the Hall. 5

Ricky Williams, Baltimore Ravens – Ricky Williams is among the NFL’s top 30 all time leading rushers. He is still active, averaging 4.7 yards per carry this season, on pace for a 500-600 yard season as a backup to Ray Rice. To put these numbers in perspective, in 2010, the Saints, the (Super Bowl champion) Packers, the Lions, and the Seahawks all had leading rushers with 716 yards or less. The Lions and Seahawks had leading rushers with less than 600 yards rushing. What this says is that Ricky Williams is producing above the expectations of a typical 33 year old, 11 year veteran backup running back.

Looks like Williams made it off of the island, too. This isn't Revis, though (picture from 2003). 6

He should be in Canton one day, right? Maybe not… Like Thomas Jones, Williams has very few awards, with only one Pro Bowl season, coinciding with his one First Team AP All Pro season, in 2002. Williams only had three seasons with 1,200 yards or more rushing, averaging only 3.5 yards per carry in one of those seasons (2003). The back breaker for Williams Hall of Fame candidacy may be the time he has spent off the field. Williams has missed all of or all but one game in three seasons (2004, 2006, 2007). Only the 2007 season was missed due to injury, the others because of Williams own doing, with an abrupt retirement and a year long suspension for a substance abuse violation.


FUTURE HOPEFULS

Unlike any other position in football, running back may be the only position with which one can reasonably discuss the Hall of Fame possibilities of a player shortly after he enters the league. Running back is a position which, for the best players, has an average “impact” shelf life of about 8 years, give or take a year.

The age of 30 is like the stroke of midnight for most running backs, with big seasons after that age being a rarity. Since 1950 only Hall of Famer Marion Motley (in 1950) and Curtis Martin (2004) have led the league in rushing after the age of 30. Barry Sanders (1997), Charles White (1987), O.J. Simpson (1976), Floyd Little (1971), and Jim Brown (1965) all led the NFL in rushing at age 29. All but White are in the Hall of Fame. For this reason, running backs are typically on a Hall of Fame path (or not) during or before the third year of their careers.


Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans - Barring injury, Johnson will eclipse the 5,000 yard plateau this season, possibly as early as this Sunday. In spite of his slow start to this season, in which Johnson did not have the benefit of training camp, I expect Johnson to be in the neighborhood of 1,200 rushing yards by this season’s end. This would give Johnson approximately 5,800 rushing yards (well into the top 100 of all-time) and, minimally, 7,000 yards from scrimmage for his career through 4 years.


Good luck catching him. 7

Possibly the fastest player in the NFL, all Johnson needs to do is stay healthy and have 4 to 6 more Pro Bowl caliber seasons (or 3 to 5 more seasons comparable to his first 3) and his induction will be a no-brainer. This may be easier said than done, but it is within Johnson’s grasp.


Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars – MJD will likely be among the NFL’s top 80 all time leading rushers after this Monday, at the age of 26. In addition to being a punishing runner, Jones-Drew is also a considerable receiving threat, with over 2,000 career receiving yards. He was also a feared kick returner early in his career, with to kickoffs returned for touchdowns in his first two seasons. He also has 63 rushing and receiving touchdowns in his career.

Three more high-level seasons plus some productive years at the end of his career should send Jones-Drew to the Hall. The key, like for every running back, is avoiding injury.

I don't envy this guy. 8

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* Statistics and all-time rankings from Pro-Football-Reference.com
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Trust Us!

Tennessee Titans all-world running back Chris Johnson, for the second year in a row, is holding out from training camp over a contract dispute. Last season, Johnson was earning a mid-range six figure salary and the Titans more than tripled it to over $2 million, with the understanding that if he had another spectacular season, such as the 2,000 yard rushing season he had in 2009, the organization would be open to renegotiating his contract.

Johnson on both feet while three New York Jets defenders behind him, with two clinging, in vein, to bring Johnson down. 4

Sixteen hundred yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns later, Johnson has already held up his end of the bargain. Johnson has proven that he is the most explosive, productive, and (to an opposing defense) lethal running back in football. He wants to get paid, to the tune of eight figures in guaranteed money and being among the highest paid players, running back, quarterback or otherwise, in the NFL.

Two Houston Texans defenders drag Johnson to the ground. They're on the ground; he's not. 3

Regardless of your point of view about whether Johnson should honor his current contract, which I think is a joke, there are only three possible outcomes. The first is Johnson does not play and holds out indefinitely, which he appears prepared to do. The second is that Tennessee renegotiates Johnson’s contract to Johnson’s liking and Johnson plays. The third is unlikely: the Titans have asked Johnson to come to camp and have promised to make Johnson the highest paid running back in the league when he arrives.


CARROT AND STICK

It is the third option that we are going to contrast with the “real world” today. Sports often parallel real life. The notion that Johnson would come to camp, effectively giving up his negotiating leverage for this season, and expect to gain the best possible outcome for himself is laughable, and Johnson and his agent know it. Johnson has more than outplayed his contract for three years in a row, at a position in which he is either at or close to the halfway point in his career as an impact playmaker.

So today, The Daily Hat Trick is going to play out some “what if” scenarios. You, the reader, can decide if you would take a leap of faith into the arms of your employer, under the circumstances. Just remember that “trust me” is a phrase among the most famous last words spoken by men.


SALES

Boss: You’ve done an outstanding job the last few years, Peterson, far better than any one man in our industry! We promised to pay you the highest salary of any salesman in the company, last year, and we meant it! All we need you to do is come in and start working these high priority accounts. As soon as you start doing that, we’ll take goooood care of you.

Peterson: “Take care of me”? What does that mean?

Boss: We going to offer you a new contract that we think you deserve.

Peterson: Well, why can’t you offer that to me now, before I come in and start doing work, which profits you?

Boss: Either way, you have a contract, so you might as well get to work! Don’t worry! The money will follow. I promise. Trust me!

Peterson: But we I agreed I wouldn’t work this contract anymore. Once I start working the accounts, I can’t just stop. Why don’t we take care of the salary issue right now?

Boss: No, no, no! It is our company’s firm policy to not renegotiate any current contract with anyone unless he’s is actively working.

Peterson: Don’t you make all of the policies?

Boss: Peterson, I can’t change the rules! I just think them up, and then write them down. Don’t worry! I’ve got your best interests at heart.

Would you take that deal if you could work for anyone you wanted to? I didn’t think so.

Peterson was born during the day, not yesterday. 1

PARENTING

Dad: JOEY! We had a deal, remember? If I raised your allowance to more than any other kid in the neighborhood, you would mow the front and back yards every week, not every other week. All you did, AGAIN, was mow the front yard. And you didn’t even do it last week!

Joey: Let’s be reasonable, Dad. I started mowing the front yard almost every week. I know you’re giving me $51 a week, one dollar more than Michael down the street, but I expected a little more. If you can give me $60 a week, starting today, I’ll mow the front and back yards immediately after. Trust me, Dad. Just trust me!

Any of you guys ever have the stones to try a stunt like that with your old man? If you did, did it work? No, I thought not.  

"C'mon, pops! TRUST ME!"
Doesn't this kid just look like the type to give it a try? 2


CRIME FIGHTING

Detective: Listen, Jones, we had a DEAL! I would look the other way if I caught you with pot, again, if you dropped a dime on the dealers when you knew something. I have looked the other way even when you came into the police station reeking of the stuff. Now I come to your house and you’ve replaced your Bermuda grass with…well…the other “grass”! Now I want a name and I want it NOW!

Jones: Hey maaan. Chill out! Okay duuude? Tell you what, I know you could arrest me whenever you want, but why don’t you just bring be a baggie and some rolling papers, maaan, and I’ll give you TWO names. Trust me, duuude!

How many of you think Jones won’t be wearing the silver bracelets if he doesn’t start singing like a canary on the first day of spring?

"What bong?" 6

STAND YOUR GROUND, CHRIS

Chris Johnson is making the right move. He needs the Titans FAR less than they need him. To those of you who are thinking, “If I did that at my job, I’d be fired in a heartbeat,” (I always expect emails and comments like that on this topic every time)…to those who think that, remember that you are probably replaceable at your job. Chris Johnson is not.

In addition, the Titans would make Chris Johnson’s day by “firing” him. Should the Titans release Johnson, which will not happen outside of Johnson’s pipe dreams, he would become a free agent and roughly 25 of the NFL’s 30 teams, including the Titans, would be taking a number to throw insane sums of money at him, probably more than he is asking for from the Titans.

In the end, the Titans will either have to pay the man or try to save the money by allowing Johnson to hold out indefinitely, which would make them so bad in 2011 that they might be able to draft the best running back available in the 2012 draft.

The Titans can do the math. 5 

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Never Leave the Pad Without Packing a Tweet

1

I firmly believe that nearly everyone who produces anything creative in nature, draws (or has drawn) upon some source of real life inspiration, usually a person with success in a similar area of creativity. We witness such inspiration often in music and literature. Athletes, often, discuss former players whose styles inspired their drive to be a professional. Indeed, practicing any skill that brings enjoyment to the craftsman is often accompanied by a senior practitioner.

In bringing you the Hat Trick for most of the last year, I, too, had some sources of inspiration for the Pulitzer-worthy writing you get to consume five days per week. The two most significant inspirations for me were Josh Innes, a radio talk show host in Houston and a close, personal friend of mine, and Jim Rome, possibly the Godfather of sports talk radio.

Today’s edition is inspired by something Rome says frequently on his show. Whenever an athlete posts something to his Twitter page that causes controversy (and often a sense of regret in the athlete Tweeting) Rome says that, “Twitter is like a gun, a loaded gun without a safety.” Lately, athletes have been firing into the air, irresponsibly and with reckless abandon.


TWEET!

Today is about Twitter. In the Old West, outlaws and law abiding citizens, alike, toted shooting irons. The images we see in movies depict a time when men would leave their homes without a hat and a gun as soon as men today would leave without their wallets. Most only used their weapons in self defense. Some fired first and regretted the decision later. A few were simply trigger happy and did not care what the consequences were. I think that athletes today have fallen into an Old West mentality on Twitter and it is time to leave the guns at home.

Twitter and the Old West: "Go ahead! Make my day! (tweet)" 2

On Tuesday, the Hat Trick ran a piece about other athletes who have exercised their rights to free speech but would regret it. Many of you are aware of Pittsburgh Steelers running back Rashard Mendenhall’s Tweet regarding Osama bin Laden. If you read The Daily Hat Trick regularly, you’ve read several accounts of my take on Mendenhall’s remarks. You may be tired of hearing it.


Here are a few examples of athletes firing their Twitter guns only to have it backfire at them:


Rashard Mendenhall:

What was said: “What kind of person celebrates death? It’s amazing how people can HATE a man they have never even heard speak. We’ve only heard one side…” … “I just have a hard time believing a plane could take a skyscraper down demolition style.”

What I think was meant: Two things: 1) I think he was uncomfortable with the outpouring of joy in response to news of a death. Hey, I whooped and hollered like anyone else and even I felt a little cognitive dissonance from rejoicing in response to a news of a death. It just so happens that THIS death unequivocally equaled “justice”, which is from where my source (and I believe many sources) of euphoria came. 2) I think he was trying to stir conversation. If you look at his Twitter history, it is consistent with that theme.

Mendenhall? 8

Would you ever find the same remarks in The Daily Hat Trick if I were in their positions? Not only “no”, but “hell no”. Everyone has a right to say or think what they want. But when those thoughts are put in a public forum, they are subject to the free speech and thoughts of others in REACTION to those thoughts. Even if you disagree, you’d have to be an ostrich with his head in the ground to not see that the masses were elated because the man that the masses held responsible for killing 3,000 Americans, and forever altering our lives forever, met his end. You HAVE to expect backlash from those types of remarks at that time.

You believe your eyes, don't you Mr. Mendenhall? 3

Reggie Bush:

What was said: "Everybody complaining about the lockout! Shoot I'm making the most of it! Vacation, rest, relaxing, appearances here and there! I'm good!" he wrote. "Right about now we would be slaving in 100 degree heat, practicing twice a day, while putting our bodies at risk for nothing."…"FYI last tweet was a joke! Relax people damn it's called sense of humor! Cry me a river why don't you..."

What I think was meant: I think he was trying to make a tongue-in-cheek, humorous remark in light of the lockout. Frankly, I got the “joke” on the first go round and I think this is evidence that people take Tweets WAY too seriously.

Would you ever find the same remarks in The Daily Hat Trick if I were in their positions? NO! Just because I don’t have a problem with what Bush said doesn’t mean that I wouldn’t anticipate a problem from making remarks, essentially, about getting over on my employer. He’ll either be released, traded, or paid, like every other NFL player under contract, without having to do the work that most players do right now. Some people are incapable of seeing the humor in that and since Bush is more of a “mainstream” celebrity athlete (as opposed to a “lightning rod” type like Terrell Owens), not all press is good press.

Okay, this picture is a little dated, but if you were Reggie, would you rather be "relaxing" like in the photo, or ramming yourself and being brought to the ground by big, stong, men when it won't help your career, long term? 4

Hockey Agent Todd Reynolds:

What was said: "Very sad to read Sean Avery's misguided support of same-gender 'marriage.' Legal or not, it will always be wrong,"… "To clarify. This is not hatred or bigotry towards gays. It is not intolerance in any way shape or form. I believe we are all equal."

What I think was meant: “WTF is wrong with Sean Avery? F___ them F(pejorative)S! God created Adam and EVE, not Adam and STEVE!”

Would you ever find the same remarks in The Daily Hat Trick if I were in their positions? ABSOLUTELY NOT!

First of all, for those of you not familiar with the National Hockey League, Sean Avery is the most infamous goon of his time. This is the same man who referred to ex-girlfriend Elisha Cuthbert as “sloppy seconds”. That Avery is taking a controversial, not necessarily popular, moral high ground on behalf of a demographic – gay people – that he is not a part of, is absolutely shocking to me.

That said, even if I held every homophobic view under the sun, I should have the sense to know that the world will perceive remarks, like those of Mr. Reynolds, to be bigoted and no normal person expecting to do business with and sell (in part) his reputation to others wants to be associated with bigotry in any way. Reynolds was very foolish in posting those comments.

Reynolds? 5

Tennessee Titans Running Back Chris Johnson:

What was said: "Y did the police just walk into my condo saying they think it's drug activity because it's alot of traffic but it was the MTV camera crew."… "Hard being young, black, and rich."

What I think was meant: The Orlando Police Department dispatched officers to and searched Chris Johnson’s home because a neighbor saw a number of high-end vehicles entering the area and reported possible drug activity. I think Chris Johnson was PISSED that he was minding his own business in his home, doing nothing wrong, and some nosy, pot-stirring neighbor called the police, assuming the worst, with absolutely no reasonable cause to think so. I think he was angry and, let’s face facts, Chris Johnson is young, black, has gold teeth, dreds, and does have an unusual amount of money for a guy fitting his profile. I’m going to scrap political correctness and just say it: if Johnson is a clean-cut, middle-aged white guy, nobody calls anybody.

Would you ever find the same remarks in The Daily Hat Trick if I were in their positions? No. The cops came, quickly realized there was nothing inappropriate happening, apologized, and left. No harm…no foul. I would have been PISSED, too and may have echoed Johnson’s sentiments to the other people in the room, friends, and family, but race is the ultimate lightning rod in America. Unless I was treated like a King (Rodney King, Martin Luther King, etc.) I don’t think I would have made a public statement involving race. I would not have done as Johnson did, but I UNDERSTAND.

I would probably agree with the decision to Tweet if THIS happened to Chris Johnson. 6

LeBron James:

What was said: “Crazy. Karma is a b****. Gets you every time. It’s not good to wish bad on anybody. God sees everything!” – LeBron James’ Twitter after the L.A. Lakers’ 112-57 demolition of James’ former team, the Cleveland Cavaliers.

What I think was meant: “In your face Cleveland!”

Would you ever find the same remarks in The Daily Hat Trick if I were in their positions? No. Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert sank to a low level, last summer, in his inflammatory and angry response to LeBron James' decision to take his talents to South Beach. I understand why James would want to return fire. Still, the Cavs became a competitively worthless franchise after James’ departure. LeBron’s Tweet could be perceived as laughing at or kicking others while they are down. Again, I may have made similar remarks in private, with glee. But that type of remark, for a public-brand sensitive individual like James, was not the best for his image.


Maurice Jones-Drew:

What was said: “All I’m saying is that he can finish the game on a hurt knee ... I played the whole season on one.” - In reaction to Jay Cutler leaving the 2010 NFC Championship game in the 3rd quarter and standing on the sideline during the second half.

What I think was meant: "Jay Cutler was a punk."

Would you ever find the same remarks in The Daily Hat Trick if I were in their positions? No. Questioning another NFL player’s toughness, as I understand, is tantamount to a verbal declaration of war from another player. I pick my battles and that one seems unnecessary. It also comes across as ignorant, in my view, to question how hurt another player is without knowing all of the facts. It turned out that Cutler had a ligament tear in his knee.


Carmelo Anthony:

What was said: “I got 5k for whoever see @ihatekatstacks and slap the shit out her pigeon face ass. Real talk. U fucked with the right one now."

What I think was meant: This needs to be put in context. Kat Stacks is a small time Internet sensation who is famous for sleeping with (mostly) underground or emerging rappers then blabbing about it on the web. Allegedly, she claimed to have slept with (the married) Anthony. Understandably, Anthony was furious and that fury is reflected in his words.

Would you ever find the same remarks in The Daily Hat Trick if I were in their positions? Offer a bounty for battering a woman (no matter how despicable)? Um…NO.

Kat Stacks (left) and Carmelo Anthony's wfie, Lala Vasquez (right). If Melo did tap that behind his wife's back, HE MESSED UP! 7

Chicago White Sox General Manager Ken Williams:

What was said: "No comment ... and make sure you write that it is a no comment with a head shake from side to side," Williams said.

What I think was meant: This isn’t even a Tweet. This was Williams response to the news that outspoken, colorful, and sometimes controversial White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen activated a Twitter account. What I think was meant was, “Oh no! Ozzie has a Twitter page. God help us all!”

Would you ever find the same remarks in The Daily Hat Trick if I were in their positions? I think Williams made the only comment he could have made. Fortunately, to date, there have been some media-friendly Tweets, but no melt downs from Ozzie on Twitter…YET. He embarrasses his superiors in front of the camera: the old fashioned way!


What We've Learned Today

Note that in every instance of whether I would post the same remarks to Twitter as the athletes in question, the answer is always, “No.” We live in a much smaller world, thanks in large part to the Internet. When people are looking at us to see what we have to say, as is the case with anyone famous, anything that we do say WILL be interpreted. Unless it is your goal, make sure there is no room for MISunderstanding and make sure the message you send is the one you want received.


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