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| It's that time of year again! |
Top Tier
1) Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers - Last year's preseason rank: 3 (difference = +2)
Rodgers is simply the best. He demonstrated that his 2010 Super bowl run was not simply a product of getting hot at the right time. Nobody is perfect, Rodgers was close last year.
2) Tom Brady, New England Patriots - Last year's preseason rank: 2 (difference = 0)
Were Rodgers not on an unprecedented level of efficiency during the past season and a half, Brady would easily be #1. Brady is aging and, frankly, I think Rogers is just better. But Tom Terrific demonstrated that he can do a whole lot with very little.
3) Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints - Last year's preseason rank: 5 (difference = +2)
The only player in NFL history with multiple 5,000 yard passing seasons and the NFL record holder for single season passing yardage recently signed the richest contract in NFL history. Without Head Coach Sean Payton on the sideline in 2012, Brees will have every opportunity to earn his $40 million salary for next season.
Brees might be the most accurate passer in NFL history. Still, he needs to pull back at times. He had too many untimely turnovers during the past two seasons for a quarterback of his caliber.
4) Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos - Last year's preseason rank: 1 (difference = -3)
I was on the fence on whether or not to include Peyton Manning in the top tier or the second tier. He missed an entire season due to a very serious neurological problem caused by multiple neck surgeries in 2011.
Regardless, he has been cleared to play football and John Elway okay-ed a $95 million contract with substantial guarantees. Elway is not a stupid man and, as far as I am concerned, Peyton Manning is still in the top tier of NFL signal callers until he demonstrates otherwise to me.
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| I may never get used to this visual. 1 |
5) Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers - Last year's preseason rank: 4 (difference = -1)
Roethlisbegrer is the toughest quarterback in the NFL; he may the the thoughest I have seen in my lifetime, other than Brett Favre. His resume speaks for itself. That said, his issues with accuracy, at times, may keep him from ever cracking the top tier. I doubt that Steelers Fan is losing any sleep over that.
6) Eli Manning, New York Giants - Last year's preseason rank: 9 (difference = +3)
I am sure there are fellow bloggers and sports talk commentators who would take exception with me not including Eli Manning in the top tier after his second Super Bowl MVP performance this past season. Let’s not put the cart ahead of the horse.
Manning surged this past season. Should he repeat the effort (not the Super Bowl championship, but the high levels of efficiency, production, clutch play, and mistake-free football) then I think he would belong at the top. I’d like to see him string together two straight seasons without having an interception problem.
7) Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers - Last year's preseason rank: 6 (difference = -1)
Rivers took a step back this season, but so did the caliber of his surroundings. The decline will continue as franchise wide receiver Vincent Jackson defected to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers via free agency. This could be a watershed year for Rivers or the beginning of a decline. I have confidence in Rivers because he has the physical tools. Does he have the mental toughness?
8) Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears - Last year's preseason rank: 18 (difference = +10)
If you ever wanted to know how valuable Cutler is to the Bears, look at what happened after he was injured and put out for the season last year. Bears 2011 season…before and after…grand opening…grand closing.
9) Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys - Last year's preseason rank: 14 (difference = +5)
I am convinced that Romo is the most over-criticized and underappreciated quarterback in the NFL. Romo made chicken salad out of chicken crap with the Cowboys’ offense last season. The Cowboys have no consistent receiving option for Romo other than tight end Jason Witten. Receiver Dez Bryant is infinitely talented and WR Miles Austin has shining moments, but both players are too unfocused and too undisciplined too often.
In pro football, the quarterback usually gets too much credit for the wins and too much blame for the losses. Only the latter has applied to Romo for too much of his career. He does not get nearly enough credit for when he helps his team win.
10) Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons - Last year's preseason rank: 8 (difference = -2)
Matt Ryan burst on to the NFL QB scene as a rookie in 2008. He is under the microscope to take the next step – winning a playoff game. He may have to do so to rise among his peers.
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| Is he "elite" yet? 2 |
Tier 3
11) Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions - Last year's preseason rank: 21 (difference = +10)
Stafford had a breakthrough in 2011, finishing third in the NFL in passing yardage (eclipsing the 5,000 yard plateau for the fifth time in NFL history). Stafford’s potential has been evident since his 2009 rookie season. His durability had not been so evident. With a healthy year, Stafford led his team to the playoffs and put the impossible-to-beat-at-home New Orleans Saints on the ropes. Stafford’s star is on the rise.
12) Matt Schaub, Houston Texans - Last year's preseason rank: 11 (difference = -1)
I am not entirely convinced that the Texans would not have reached the Super Bowl last season had Schaub not broken his foot in a freak accident late in the 2011 regular season. The Texans are positioned for a Super Bowl run, plain and simple. This is the year for Schaub to show the world all that he is made of.
13) Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles - Last year's preseason rank: 7 (difference = -6)
Vick is another “sky is the limit” quarterback who has yet to touch the clouds. He has suffered from injury issues in all but one of his previous nine NFL seasons. The talent is around Vick on both sides of the ball. How far the Eagles go will depend entirely on Vick.
14) Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens - Last year's preseason rank: 10 (difference = -4)
I described Tony Romo as over-criticized and underappreciated. I think Flacco is under-criticized and underappreciated. It sounds odd, but it is what happened when the expectations of a quarterback are set too low by the fans and the media. That may not be the worst dynamic for a team that lives and dies with its defense and running game. But after several years of coming very close to the big game, the microscope needs to magnify what is going right and what isn’t at the QB position.
15) Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers - Last year's preseason rank: 30 (difference = +15)
This the most underrated #15 in the three years in which The Hat Trick has run this series. I cannot justify ranking Newton much higher because there is still a lot that he has yet to actually do and prove on a football field, specifically translating his individual contributions into more than six wins. However, Newton’s ceiling makes the Michelangelo’s Sistine Chapel look like a preschooler’s coloring book. I expect Newton to break into the top ten by next season.
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| Newton is not going to sneak up on anyone in 2012. Can he continue to climb the ranks of NFL QBs? 3 |
16) Mark Sanchez, New York Jets - Last year's preseason rank: 12 (difference = -4)
Sanchez is a quarterback that I think is overrated and over criticized. People’s expectations of him are too high and too much blame is heaped on him when things aren’t going well for Gang Green. The offensive line and running game have to improve over last year for Sanchez to even have a chance to bring the Jets to (or beyond) their third AFC Championship Game in four years.
I am not unaware of the elephant in the room on the Jets QB depth chart. I am just not acknowledging him in this discussion.
17) Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals - Last year's preseason rank: 32 (difference =+15)
Dalton is an example of a quarterback who has talented teammates, knows his gameplan and playbook, sticks to the plan, doesn’t try to do too much and succeeds as a rookie. Dalton has the capability to take his game up several notches in 2012. To do so, he must place less emphasis on his role as a game manager and place more emphasis on being a playmaker.
18) Matt Hasselbeck, Tennessee Titans - Last year's preseason rank: 20 (difference = +2)
With the Titans selection of University of Washington quarterback Jake Locker in the 2011 NFL Draft, I did not expect to be discussing Hasselbeck in 2012. Still, the veteran quarterback demonstrated the value of experience.
Hasselbeck kept the personnel depleted (either due to injuries or running back Chris Johnson’s contract holdout hangover) Titans in the AFC playoff picture much longer than expected and helped lead the team to its first winning season in three years. Can he help make it the first playoff appearance in four years?
19) Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams - Last year's preseason rank: 17 (difference = -2)
Big step forward…big step back. Missing six games due to injury did not help Bradford’s cause. The Rams (not so) vaunted Swiss Cheese Defense and Casper Receiving Corps (which was like a ghost last season) made any measurable level of success all but impossible last year. A new coach plus savvy drafting will give the 2008 Heisman Trophy winner and first pick in the 2010 NFL Draft a chance to prove that he can play up to his potential.
20) Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts - Last year's preseason rank: none
Ranking rookie quarterbacks is extremely difficult because they have yet to do anything in the NFL. Therefore, I have to evaluate potential of rookies against actual track records plus the potential of current quarterbacks. Luck looked like a ready-for-NFL product in his last two years at Stanford. That “Luck look” continued over the weekend in Colts training camp, where Luck reportedly completed 27 of 32 passes in practice.
The Colts are a bad football team. Peyton Manning’s absence in 2011 made that painfully obvious to Colts Fan. But I expect Luck to have the Colts to where they are competitive more times than not in the second half of the 2012 season.
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| The elephant in the room is on the left. Sanchez: "What the f___ are you doing here?!?" 4 |
21) Carson Palmer, Oakland Raiders - Last year's preseason rank: none
Father Time is the undisputed heavyweight champion of ending careers. The Raiders’ 2012 success will depend on how many rounds Palmer has left in his fight.
22) Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers - Last year's preseason rank: 26 (difference = +4)
Smith had a breakthrough, but only from the standpoint that he didn’t jettison his team’s chances of winning. Smith, entering his eighth NFL season has a chance to build on his relatively mistake-free season. Being in manager-only mode allowed Smith to be one (unbeaten in regulation) game away from the Super Bowl. It’s time to add “playmaker” to Smith’s arsenal.
23) Robert Griffin, III, Washington Redskins - Last year's preseason rank: none
Griffin could be 2012’s Cam Newton. He could make Cam Newton the “early version of Robert Griffin, III”. RG3’s upside is enormous. Griffin is a razor sharp pocket passer with track runner’s speed, a tight end’s strength, and intelligence and maturity beyond his years. His team, however, is simply awful, his coach, Mike Shanahan, has not been QB-savvy of late, and he is a rookie. I think the comparisons to Andrew Luck and the measures of their respective successes will be sports media fodder for years to come.
24) Kevin Kolb, Arizona Cardinals - Last year's preseason rank: 19 (difference = -5)
I don’t know what to make of Kevin Kolb. Fate has not been his friend. Injuries have not been his friend. Luck has not been his friend. That can all go away in one season. If Kolb can get back to the form that he had with the Philadelphia Eagles that made Donovan McNabb expendable following the 2009 season and made him the most sought after available quarterback following the 2010 season, the Cardinals, with their (healthy) weapons can be right back in the playoffs this season.
25) Matt Cassel, Kansas City Chiefs - Last year's preseason rank: 16 (difference = -9)
This is a make-or-break season for Cassel. Will the real Matt Cassel please stand up? Will we see the Matt Cassel who came on in relief of Tom Brady in New England in 2008 and led the Pats to an 11 win regular season? Will we see the Matt Cassel who was overly generous, to the other team, with the ball in 2009? The Matt Cassel who looked like an All-Pro in 2010? Or the fragile, inconsistent Cassel from last year?
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| I never thought I would see a day when I would express concern for a quarterback in Mike Shanahan's (background) system. 5 |
26) Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo Bills - Last year's preseason rank: 25 (difference = -1)
Fitzpatrick looked like Billy Ray Cyrus last year – a one hit wonder. Still, Fitzpatrick, in spite of struggling last year, showed flashes of the potential that earned him a big contract following the 2010 season. I think Fitzpatrick will go as next season goes for the Bills, particularly with some of the offseason personnel improvements made in Buffalo.
27) Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Last year's preseason rank: 15 (difference = -12)
Freeman not only called his ability into question last season, but he aroused some whispers about his character as a leader. The Buccaneers completely quit on coach Raheem Morris and left him, and each other, out to dry like laundry on the clothesline. The on-field leadership starts with the QB and it was not there last year.
28) Matt Flynn, Seattle Seahawks - Last year's preseason rank: none
Flynn demonstrated tremendous potential, playing very effectively in relief of Aaron Rodgers during his four seasons in Green Bay. However, Flynn will be playing under Pete Carroll, not Mike McCarthy. He will be surrounded by the Seahawks offensive parts, not those of the Packers, with whom he won a Super Bowl ring as a backup in the 2010 season.
Flynn has to show me before I can give him credit because he will be on his own, so to speak, for the first time since he was at LSU in 2007. It is going to take more than an efficient game manager to be successful in Seattle.
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| It's gut check time for Freeman. 6 |
Toilet Tier
29) Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins - Last year's preseason rank: none
If his game on the field is like his game with the ladies, Miami has a bright future. Still, he is a rookie coming from a Big XII conference that treated defense as more of a suggestion than a requirement. Tannehill has not won the starting job officially. However, I think he will win it and I would include Matt Moore (his main competition) in this tier even if Moore wins the job, in spite of some bright moments by Moore last year.
30) Christian Ponder, Minnesota Vikings - Last year's preseason rank: none
Ponder replaced Donovan McNabb several games into the 2011 season after the Vikings continued to be winless. Benching and eventually cutting the aging quarterback, making him into a scapegoat and giving the rookie a chance to play, may have been the popular move by the Vikings. If you look at the record, look at the statistics, look at the performances by the Vikings defense, I think the Vikings took a step back. Time for Ponder to step up.
31) Blaine Gabbert, Jacksonville Jaguars - Last year's preseason rank: none
“GIVE ME BACK MY SON!”
Mel Gibson in "Ransom"
“GIVE ME BACK MY (draft) PICK!”
Jaguars Management
32) Brandon Weeden, Cleveland Browns - Last year's preseason rank: none
The 28 year old rookie out of Oklahoma State is going to have his work cut out for him. The Browns’ secondary is awful. The running game is awful. The receivers are awful. Weeden’s learning curve has to be extremely short if he is to have a successful NFL career, due to his age. He still has to beat incumbent QB Colt McCoy out for the starting job, though I expect him to.
Weeden is comfortable passing the football and has a good arm. However, he has never faced anything resembling the speed and skill of an NFL defense. Frankly, I don’t think Weeden could have landed in a worse destination for a rookie quarterback, needing intensive development for the pro game, than Cleveland.
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| I'm looking forward to seeing coverage of Tannehill on HBO's Hard Knocks next month...Lauren Tannehill (above)! 7 |
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