If at First You Don't Succeed

John Calipari has taken three different schools to four Final Fours. The last three were filled to the brim with bitter disappointment. Last night, Coach Cal's cup ran over with champagne.

UK fans celebrate back in Lexington. 1

FUTILITY

In 1996, Calipari led the UMass Minutemen to the Final Four (though the achievement would be vacated from the record due to NCAA violations). They would lose in the National Semifinal game to the eventual National Champion Kentucky Wildcats, coached by his one-time mentor-turned-nemesis Rick Pitino.

Cal would lead the Memphis Tigers to the National Championship Game in 2008 (a run that would also be vacated from the record due to NCAA violations), but, leading Coach Bill Self and the Kansas Jayhawks by three in the final seconds, his Tigers would go 0 for 4 from the free throw line. Mario Chalmers of Kansas would make a clutch three point shot at the end of regulation and KU would win in overtime.

In 2011, Kentucky was a heavy favorite but fell to red hot Connecticut and Hall of Fame coach Jim Calhoun. UConn would go on to win the National Championship. Again, Calipari's team was nothing more than a footnote in another team's championship run.

For all of Derrick Rose's greatness in the NBA, his college career will forever be remembered for the free throw he missed. 2

"FAVORED" DOES NOT MEAN "EASY"

Kansas was not going to bow down and kiss the UK ring. Naismith Award winner Anthony Davis (6 pts., 16 reb., 5 asst., 6 blks., 3 steals) did not make a shot from the field until there were just over five minutes remaining in the game. Davis, the Most Outstanding Player of the NCAA Tournament, went 0 for his first 8 shots from the field. He did not score until the second half.

Kansas made multiple runs to cut the Kentucky lead down to 10 points or less. The Jayhawks forced the high percentage shooting Wildcats to take more shots from the perimeter than they normally do. Kentucky found itself playing the clock milking game in the second half because of how thoroughly Kansas locked down the Kentucky post game.

In the end, it made no difference. While John Calipari stood in the shadow of the 2008 meltdown, the Wildcats never broke, in spite of a lot of bending. In spite of yet another masterful second half, come-from-behind coaching job by Kansas' Bill Self, Kentucky's superior talent, their physical skills, and the clock were too much for Kansas to overcome.

Thomas Robinson (18 pts., 17 reb.) made the contest a two possession game, cutting the lead down to five with two clutch free throws in the final two minutes. That was as close as the Jayhawks would come. Calipari finally claimed his long coveted and ever-evasive national championship.

Tyshawn Taylor (10) got gangsta slapped by Anthony Davis (23). 3

LEGACY


What will be remembered from last night's game will not be the details of the game. It will not be Tyshawn Taylor's questionable insistence on driving into the lane and challenging one of the greatest single-season shot blockers in NCAA history, Anthony Davis, to no avail. It will not be Kansas' lapses on defense, such as leaving Marquis Teague (14 pts., 3 asst.) of Kentucky wide open along the perimeter several times. It will not even be the furious late comeback that brought Kansas within striking distance.

What will be remembered is that John Calipari, one of the greatest college coaches of his time, validated his membership among the coaching elite with a championship. What will be remembered is how five starters, including three who will likely be in the NBA next year, played unselfish team basketball all season long and dominated almost every opponent who got in their way. The pristine excellence against a basketball blue blood opponent, culminated with a championship, not seen in several years will be the lasting impression of the 2012 National Championship Game.

Congratulations to the Kentucky Wildcats and Head Coach John Calipari on his first, ever national championship.

4

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Happy Girls from Kentucky

I am guessing that it is a good day to be a Kentuckian.




1) Image from Getty Images via http://features.rr.com

Prelude to a Championship

The Final Four has begun. The three semifinal games are over. We are down to two teams vying for One Shining Moment. As promised last Thursday, the Hat Trick will preview the championship game.

The last time Kentucky cut down the nets was under Coach Tubby Smith in 1998. (Trophy presentation and One Shining Moment in the video from You Tube).

KENTUCKY

Kentucky’s path to the National Championship Game was an extremely straightforward one. The best players on any one team played exceptionally as a team, did not make mistakes, and stayed healthy. The Louisville Cardinals, UK’s bitter intrastate rival and opponent in Saturday’s first National Semifinal, threw everything but the kitchen sink at the Wildcats.

They forced a tie in the second half. They never make Kentucky sweat. Louisville Head Coach Rick Pitino’s composed and accepting demeanor after the game signaled to me that Pitino knew he was playing with house money, made the most of it, but couldn’t beat the odds, which always favor the house.

Seeing Anthony Davis reject people in the lane is the epitome of ESPN's SportsCenter's Stuart Scott's trademark "GANGSTA SLAPPED!" exclamation. FEAR THE UNIBROW! 1

KANSAS

The Kansas Jayhawks faced a scare in their first Final Four matchup. Ohio State controlled the first three quarters of the game, leading by as many as 13 points in the second half. Alas, college basketball games are 40 minutes long and the team that leads during the game is irrelevant, just the team ahead after the second half buzzer. Kansas led for less than four minutes, but the bulk of that time was near, and included, the end of the game.


KENTUCKY WINS IF…

It shows up and plays its game to the best of its ability. Limit unnecessary turnovers. Take smart shots. Do not commit stupid fouls. In short, what they have done all year. The media has thrust Associated Press Player of the Year Anthony Davis (14 PPG, 10 RPG, 5 BlkPG) into our living rooms almost constantly since the beginning of the tournament. However, Kentucky needs forward Terrence Jones (13 PPG, 7 RPG) and forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (12 PPG, 8 RPG) to play their “A” games to keep Kansas from threatening Kentucky’s very favorable chances of winning tonight.


KANSAS WINS IF…

The Kentucky players fill up on too much rich New Orleans food before the game and have stomach issues? I don’t know. It’s a L..O..N..G shot!

If the Jayhawks are aggressive about challenging Kentucky in the paint and can force Davis into some early foul trouble, Kansas could have a ray of hope. If Kansas can keep Kentucky out of the lane and force Kentucky into taking low percentage shots, the Jayhawks could have a second ray of hope. A few rays can begin to light a room.

If Thomas Robinson (18 PPG, 12 RPG) can get the better of Davis and UK’s post defenders and get to the free throw line, Kansas has another ray of hope. If Kansas big man Jeff Withey (9 PPG, 6 RPG, 4 BlkPG) can challenge Davis, get physical with him, and foul Davis at strategic moments in the game, Kansas has yet another ray of hope. Most importantly (and possibly the ray of hope that Kansas is hopeless without) point guard Tyshawn Taylor (17 PPG, 5 APG, 4 TOPG) absolutely has to make good decisions with the basketball and be all but turnover free in key moments of the Jayhawks’ rays of hope will go “lights out”.

Good news: Taylor stole the ball from William Buford in the final seconds against Ohio State, appearing to slam the door on Kansas' opponent.
Bad news: Taylor turned the ball back over almost instantly, giving OSU one last gasp, which would be extinguished. That cannot happen tonight if KU has a shred of a chance. 2

FINAL ANALYSIS?

Kentucky is too good. Kansas has to be just short of perfect AND Kentucky needs to make mistakes of proportions they have not experienced all season. Lightning seldom strikes in the same place twice.

Advantage: Kentucky

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Must See Sports - Fifth Weekend of March 2012

Last two week's advantage/disadvantage record: 7-3
Must See Sports 2012 record: 41-28

This week, someone will cut down the nets in New Orleans to "One Shining Moment" and MLB is back!

Thursday, March 29


NBA

Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat

This rematch of the 2011 NBA Finals means more for the Mavericks than for the Heat, but expect it to be a contentious affair tonight. The Mavs are 2.5 games back of 3rd place in the Western Conference. Unfortunately for Dallas, the Heat have only lost twice at home all year and LeBron James (27 PPG, 8 RPG, 7 APG), who dislocated his finger on Monday, is going to play tonight, according to Associated Press reports. Miami is simply too good, especially at home.

Advantage: Heat


Saturday, March 31

NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament

Final Four – National Semifinals

(4) Louisville Cardinals vs (1) Kentucky Wildcats

It has been like a civil war in Kentucky. Big brother Kentucky versus little brother Louisville. Former Kentucky Wildcats coach Rick Pitino versus longtime rival coach John Calipari. Louisville as David…Kentucky as Goliath. The winner plays for the National Championship.

I had the rare honor of being able to interview Coach Pitino in person back in January. In his own words, he said he didn’t think anyone could beat Kentucky, except possibly Syracuse. A part of me is rooting for him, but I am going to hold Coach Pitino to his word. And I agree with him. Kentucky looks bulletproof.

Advantage: Kentucky

Calipari, left, and Pitino, right, will "take it to the mattresses" on Saturday. Kentucky vs Louisville is all out war! 1

(2) Ohio State Buckeyes vs (2) Kansas Jayhawks

This is a true clash of the titans. Ohio State has looked, at times, to have potential similar to that of Kentucky. However, they have been tripped up by some unexpected underdog opponents at unexpected times, suffering rare home losses to Michigan State and Wisconsin and an inexplicable loss to Illinois. They have already lost at Kansas once earlier this season.

The head to head matchup of two of college basketball’s best players, Ohio State’s Jared Sulinger (18 PPG, 9 RPG) and Thomas Robinson (18 PPG, 12 RPG) of Kansas, should offer viewers a one-on-one battle between two for the game’s most powerful inside players. Kansas has not lost a regular season game since February 4th. I think they have just a little more than the Buckeyes have.

Advantage: Kansas

Thomas Robinson of Kansas, Jared Sullinger of Ohio State, Peyton Siva of Louisville, and AP Player of the Year Anthony Davis of Kentucky 2

Sunday, April 1

NBA

Chicago Bulls at Oklahoma City Thunder

The team with the best record in the East travels to play the best in the West. This could be a preview of the NBA Finals in June. This one is not a though one for me to pick. MVP candidate Kevin Durant (28 PPG, 8 RPG) has scored 25 or more points in four consecutive games while Derrick Rose (23 PPG, 8 APG) of the Bulls has missed eight straight games with a groin injury. The Bulls have played well in Rose’s absence, but they have not played the Thunder.

Advantage: Thunder

Derrick Rose, right, was quoted as saying Kevin Durant, left, is the front runner for the 2012 NBA MVP award. 3

Monday, April 2

NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament

Final Four – National Championship Game

This game will be previewed after Saturday’s National Semifinal games.


Wednesday, April 4

MLB

St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins

The Great American Pastime is back! The defending World Series champion St. Louis and Miami will debut the MLB season on American soil. Starting pitchers have not been officially announced yet. However I would be stunned if Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright (20-11, 2.42 ERA, 213 K in 2010), who missed all of 2011 recovering from Tommy John surgery, did not face off against Josh Johnson (3-1, 1.64 ERA, 56 K, 60.1 IP in 2011) of Miami, whose red hot start to last season was interrupted with a shoulder injury in May. The Marlins went down in flames after a good start and quickly fell out of the pennant race following Johnson’s injury.

Miami made a host of additions during the offseason, coinciding with their name change from the “Florida” Marlins, uniform change, and new stadium. The Fish added former Chicago White Sox ace Mark Buehrle (13-9, 3.59 ERA in 2011), 2011 National League batting champion Jose Reyes (.337, 7 HR, 44 RBI in 2011) from the New York Mets, and lights-out closer Heath Bell (3-4, 2.44 ERA, 43 SV in 2011) from the San Diego Padres in the offseason. By the way, they acquired former World Series champion manager Ozzie Guillen from the White Sox.

Miami is loaded. They are pumped. And they are at home to start the season.

Advantages – Game: Marlins, Series: Marlins

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Sheet of Integrity

I listen to the Mike and Mike show on ESPN Radio every morning. One of my favorite segments is their “Sheet of Integrity” in which they make their NCAA Tournament predictions. It is out in the open and on the record. Either Mike saying, “I told you so,” during the tournament will have a few million witnesses. Likewise, I would like to have a few…hundred witnesses for my college basketball vision and brilliance.





Hardcore proof....


FIRST ROUND

I like Western Kentucky, Iona, Lamar, and South Florida to survive the play in games and reach the field of 64. Remember that Virginia Commonwealth has to play in the first round and reached the Final Four. While the 16 seeds, WKU and Lamar, will be cannon fodder for #1 seeds Kentucky, and North Carolina, respectively, Iona has a very talented, game changing point guard in Scott Machado (14 PPG, 10 APG, 5 RPG), the number one offense in the country (83 PPG) and a 50% field goal percentage. South Florida reached the tournament after a very competitive Big East regular season schedule. Stranger things have happened in the Big Dance.

Shaka Smart and the VCU Rams showed that the First Round games matter. 1

ROUND OF 64

I do not expect a lot of first round surprises this year, like we have seen in years past. The only lower seeds I expect to advance are #12 seed Virginia Commonwealth over #5 seed Wichita State in the South region, #10 West Virginia over #7 Gonzaga in the East region, and, in the Midwest region, #9 Alabama over #8 Creighton and #10 Purdue over #7 St. Mary’s.


ROUND OF 32

The only lower seed I expect to advance is #5 Vanderbilt over #4 Wisconsin (who, at times, can’t buy a bucket) in the East region. In the other 15 games in the round: straight chalk, homie!

Randy Moss' opinion? Straight chalk, homie! 2

SWEET 16

Another chalky bracket…. I think that Baylor has the pieces, particularly in the paint (on both sides of the court) to outlast Duke in this round. I expect the higher seeds to advance in the other seven regional semifinals.

Update: Yesterday, Syracuse University announced that starting sophomore center and defensive standout Fab Melo (8 PPG, 6 RPG, 3 BlkPG) will be ineligible to play in the NCAA Tournament due to academic issues. I will leave my original predicitons as they were, but, with this information, I would like to change my East region semifinal winner from Syracuse to Vanderbilt.

ELITE EIGHT

The chalk stops here! I expect #1 seeds Kentucky (South region) and Syracuse (East region) to reach the Final Four by rubbing out Baylor and Ohio State, respectively. I think that Michigan State’s ride, after ascending unexpectedly to the #1 seed in the West region, comes to an end at the hands of three point shooting Missouri and senior Marcus Denmon (18 PPG, 5 RPG).

I also expect Kansas to redeem themselves after exiting the Big XII tournament in the semifinal round and losing a shot at a (what many expected to be an automatic) top seed. Both North Carolina and Kansas do everything exceptionally well, but Kansas has a tougher presence down low in National Player of the Year candidate Thomas Robinson (18 PPG, 12 RPG), resulting in opportunities for higher percentage shots. I think that will be the separator in this game. 

Update: Yesterday, Syracuse University announced that starting sophomore center and defensive standout Fab Melo (8 PPG, 6 RPG, 3 BlkPG) will be ineligible to play in the NCAA Tournament due to academic issues. I will leave my original predicitons as they were, but, with this information, I would like to change my East region final winner from Syracuse over Ohio State to Ohio State over Vanderbilt.

This is the prize for the Elite Eight winners. 3


FINAL FOUR

“Chalk up” Kentucky and Syracuse in the National Championship game, as many have expected for quite some time. I think Kentucky looks nearly invincible and, with their length, I expect them to thwart Missouri’s jump shooting game. Syracuse’s zone defense will be the kryptonite for Kansas’ Supermen tandem of Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor (17 PPG, 5 APG).

Update: Yesterday, Syracuse University announced that starting sophomore center and defensive standout Fab Melo (8 PPG, 6 RPG, 3 BlkPG) will be ineligible to play in the NCAA Tournament due to academic issues. I will leave my original predicitons as they were, but, with this information, I would like to change my National Semifinal winner from Syracuse over Kansas to Kansas over Ohio State.


NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP

Like I said, Kentucky looks nearly invincible. I expect Coach Calipari to finally capture the ever-elusive National Championship. It couldn’t happen to a better coach.

Update: Yesterday, Syracuse University announced that starting sophomore center and defensive standout Fab Melo (8 PPG, 6 RPG, 3 BlkPG) will be ineligible to play in the NCAA Tournament due to academic issues. I will leave my original predicitons as they were, but, with this information, I would like to change my National Championship Game loser from Syracuse to Kansas.

Kansas coach Bill Self would love to relive this moment from the 2008 National championship game: missed Derrick Rose free throws that kept his team alive to send the game into overtime and ultimately win. Then-Memphis coach (current Kentucky coach) John Calipari would like to rewrite this moment in history. A rematch isn't out of the question. After the Fab Melo (Syracuse) suspension was announced, it may be "likely". 4

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Stop! Bracket Time!

It is here! It is time! Cue "One Shining Moment"! MARCH MADNESS IS HERE!!!

BURSTING BUBBLES

Another Selection Sunday has come and gone. Much of what was expected happened. As usual, there were a few unexpected surprises.

The University of Washington, the Pacific 12 Conference regular season champion, was the first ever team to be excluded from the Big Dance after winning the regular season championship of one of the power conferences (Pac-12, Big Ten, Big East, SEC, ACC, Big XII). Drexel, regular season champion of the Colonial Athletic Conference, was snubbed in spite of a 27-6 record after losing to 2011 Final Four participant Virginia Commonweath in the CAA Tournament Championship Game.

Southeastern Conference teams Ole Miss and Mississippi State, both with 20+ regular season wins, did not receive an invite to the Big Dance. South Florida and Seton Hall, both with 20 wins from the hyper-competitive Big East did not get their tickets punched to the field of 64 (USF has to play in a First Four game, Seton Hall was eliminated). Marshall, in spite of being the runner up in the Conference USA tournament, regular season wins of invitees Cincinnati, Iona, a close loss to Syracuse,  and an RPI ranking better than 50, did not receive a bid.

Colonel Reb needs consolation. 1

THE TOP SPOTS

In spite of losing their conference tournament championship games, Kentucky, Syracuse, and North Carolina received three of the four #1 seeds in the tournament, with UK and the top overall seed. This all came as a surprise to nobody, which may be, in large part, why their opponents had windows of opportunity to beat them in their conference tournaments. What few people, except for yours truly, saw coming was Michigan State claiming the fourth #1 seed, as I projected on Thursday.

Conventional wisdom dictated that Kansas, ranked #3 after the conclusion of their regular season, would claim that fourth #1 seed. In the event of Kansas losing unexpectedly early in the Big XII Tournament, as they did to Baylor in the semifinal round, many expected that a Missouri victory in the Big XII tourney would send the #1 seed over to Mizzou. Neither would happen. Instead, Michigan State would beat #7 Ohio State for the second time this season in the third meeting between the teams. The result would be MSU winning the Big Ten Tournament and a #1 seed.

A walking, fighting orange. Yep! It's March Madness! 3

ONE SHINING MOMENT

Bubble team or not, top seed or not, what happens, going forward, will be entirely determined by what 68 teams do in 67 games on the hardwood over the next three weeks. With inspiration from NFL wide receiver Randy Moss, my projections for the Final Four in New Orleans: "Straight chalk, homie!"

I expect #1 seeds Kentucky and Syracuse to be in the Final Four and would be stunned if either of them failed to do so. While I would not be surprised to see both North Carolina and Michigan State in Big Easy, either, I think that a number of teams could give them the slip.

In the Midwest Region, I think that Michigan could present a big problem for UNC in the Sweet 16, though I expect Carolina to survive. I do think that a motivated Kansas team, barring injury to Tyshawn Taylor (17 PPG, 5 APG) or Thomas Robinson (18 PPG, 12 RPG), will be able to outlast North Carolina or any other opponent in the Regional Final in St. Louis.

In the West region, there are several good teams that will take aim at Michigan State and could hit the target. Marquette, Florida, and Missouri could all pose matchup issues for MSU. In the end, I expect an experienced Missouri team, on a mission since a premature exit from the 2011 tournament, to emerge from the West Regional Final in Phoenix.

Get your popcorn ready and fasten your seatbelts. It's going to be a fast, wild ride!!!

4

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