Prelude to a Championship

The Final Four has begun. The three semifinal games are over. We are down to two teams vying for One Shining Moment. As promised last Thursday, the Hat Trick will preview the championship game.

The last time Kentucky cut down the nets was under Coach Tubby Smith in 1998. (Trophy presentation and One Shining Moment in the video from You Tube).

KENTUCKY

Kentucky’s path to the National Championship Game was an extremely straightforward one. The best players on any one team played exceptionally as a team, did not make mistakes, and stayed healthy. The Louisville Cardinals, UK’s bitter intrastate rival and opponent in Saturday’s first National Semifinal, threw everything but the kitchen sink at the Wildcats.

They forced a tie in the second half. They never make Kentucky sweat. Louisville Head Coach Rick Pitino’s composed and accepting demeanor after the game signaled to me that Pitino knew he was playing with house money, made the most of it, but couldn’t beat the odds, which always favor the house.

Seeing Anthony Davis reject people in the lane is the epitome of ESPN's SportsCenter's Stuart Scott's trademark "GANGSTA SLAPPED!" exclamation. FEAR THE UNIBROW! 1

KANSAS

The Kansas Jayhawks faced a scare in their first Final Four matchup. Ohio State controlled the first three quarters of the game, leading by as many as 13 points in the second half. Alas, college basketball games are 40 minutes long and the team that leads during the game is irrelevant, just the team ahead after the second half buzzer. Kansas led for less than four minutes, but the bulk of that time was near, and included, the end of the game.


KENTUCKY WINS IF…

It shows up and plays its game to the best of its ability. Limit unnecessary turnovers. Take smart shots. Do not commit stupid fouls. In short, what they have done all year. The media has thrust Associated Press Player of the Year Anthony Davis (14 PPG, 10 RPG, 5 BlkPG) into our living rooms almost constantly since the beginning of the tournament. However, Kentucky needs forward Terrence Jones (13 PPG, 7 RPG) and forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (12 PPG, 8 RPG) to play their “A” games to keep Kansas from threatening Kentucky’s very favorable chances of winning tonight.


KANSAS WINS IF…

The Kentucky players fill up on too much rich New Orleans food before the game and have stomach issues? I don’t know. It’s a L..O..N..G shot!

If the Jayhawks are aggressive about challenging Kentucky in the paint and can force Davis into some early foul trouble, Kansas could have a ray of hope. If Kansas can keep Kentucky out of the lane and force Kentucky into taking low percentage shots, the Jayhawks could have a second ray of hope. A few rays can begin to light a room.

If Thomas Robinson (18 PPG, 12 RPG) can get the better of Davis and UK’s post defenders and get to the free throw line, Kansas has another ray of hope. If Kansas big man Jeff Withey (9 PPG, 6 RPG, 4 BlkPG) can challenge Davis, get physical with him, and foul Davis at strategic moments in the game, Kansas has yet another ray of hope. Most importantly (and possibly the ray of hope that Kansas is hopeless without) point guard Tyshawn Taylor (17 PPG, 5 APG, 4 TOPG) absolutely has to make good decisions with the basketball and be all but turnover free in key moments of the Jayhawks’ rays of hope will go “lights out”.

Good news: Taylor stole the ball from William Buford in the final seconds against Ohio State, appearing to slam the door on Kansas' opponent.
Bad news: Taylor turned the ball back over almost instantly, giving OSU one last gasp, which would be extinguished. That cannot happen tonight if KU has a shred of a chance. 2

FINAL ANALYSIS?

Kentucky is too good. Kansas has to be just short of perfect AND Kentucky needs to make mistakes of proportions they have not experienced all season. Lightning seldom strikes in the same place twice.

Advantage: Kentucky

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1) Image from http://sports.yahoo.com
2) Image from www.ctpost.com