Sheet of Integrity

I listen to the Mike and Mike show on ESPN Radio every morning. One of my favorite segments is their “Sheet of Integrity” in which they make their NCAA Tournament predictions. It is out in the open and on the record. Either Mike saying, “I told you so,” during the tournament will have a few million witnesses. Likewise, I would like to have a few…hundred witnesses for my college basketball vision and brilliance.





Hardcore proof....


FIRST ROUND

I like Western Kentucky, Iona, Lamar, and South Florida to survive the play in games and reach the field of 64. Remember that Virginia Commonwealth has to play in the first round and reached the Final Four. While the 16 seeds, WKU and Lamar, will be cannon fodder for #1 seeds Kentucky, and North Carolina, respectively, Iona has a very talented, game changing point guard in Scott Machado (14 PPG, 10 APG, 5 RPG), the number one offense in the country (83 PPG) and a 50% field goal percentage. South Florida reached the tournament after a very competitive Big East regular season schedule. Stranger things have happened in the Big Dance.

Shaka Smart and the VCU Rams showed that the First Round games matter. 1

ROUND OF 64

I do not expect a lot of first round surprises this year, like we have seen in years past. The only lower seeds I expect to advance are #12 seed Virginia Commonwealth over #5 seed Wichita State in the South region, #10 West Virginia over #7 Gonzaga in the East region, and, in the Midwest region, #9 Alabama over #8 Creighton and #10 Purdue over #7 St. Mary’s.


ROUND OF 32

The only lower seed I expect to advance is #5 Vanderbilt over #4 Wisconsin (who, at times, can’t buy a bucket) in the East region. In the other 15 games in the round: straight chalk, homie!

Randy Moss' opinion? Straight chalk, homie! 2

SWEET 16

Another chalky bracket…. I think that Baylor has the pieces, particularly in the paint (on both sides of the court) to outlast Duke in this round. I expect the higher seeds to advance in the other seven regional semifinals.

Update: Yesterday, Syracuse University announced that starting sophomore center and defensive standout Fab Melo (8 PPG, 6 RPG, 3 BlkPG) will be ineligible to play in the NCAA Tournament due to academic issues. I will leave my original predicitons as they were, but, with this information, I would like to change my East region semifinal winner from Syracuse to Vanderbilt.

ELITE EIGHT

The chalk stops here! I expect #1 seeds Kentucky (South region) and Syracuse (East region) to reach the Final Four by rubbing out Baylor and Ohio State, respectively. I think that Michigan State’s ride, after ascending unexpectedly to the #1 seed in the West region, comes to an end at the hands of three point shooting Missouri and senior Marcus Denmon (18 PPG, 5 RPG).

I also expect Kansas to redeem themselves after exiting the Big XII tournament in the semifinal round and losing a shot at a (what many expected to be an automatic) top seed. Both North Carolina and Kansas do everything exceptionally well, but Kansas has a tougher presence down low in National Player of the Year candidate Thomas Robinson (18 PPG, 12 RPG), resulting in opportunities for higher percentage shots. I think that will be the separator in this game. 

Update: Yesterday, Syracuse University announced that starting sophomore center and defensive standout Fab Melo (8 PPG, 6 RPG, 3 BlkPG) will be ineligible to play in the NCAA Tournament due to academic issues. I will leave my original predicitons as they were, but, with this information, I would like to change my East region final winner from Syracuse over Ohio State to Ohio State over Vanderbilt.

This is the prize for the Elite Eight winners. 3


FINAL FOUR

“Chalk up” Kentucky and Syracuse in the National Championship game, as many have expected for quite some time. I think Kentucky looks nearly invincible and, with their length, I expect them to thwart Missouri’s jump shooting game. Syracuse’s zone defense will be the kryptonite for Kansas’ Supermen tandem of Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor (17 PPG, 5 APG).

Update: Yesterday, Syracuse University announced that starting sophomore center and defensive standout Fab Melo (8 PPG, 6 RPG, 3 BlkPG) will be ineligible to play in the NCAA Tournament due to academic issues. I will leave my original predicitons as they were, but, with this information, I would like to change my National Semifinal winner from Syracuse over Kansas to Kansas over Ohio State.


NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP

Like I said, Kentucky looks nearly invincible. I expect Coach Calipari to finally capture the ever-elusive National Championship. It couldn’t happen to a better coach.

Update: Yesterday, Syracuse University announced that starting sophomore center and defensive standout Fab Melo (8 PPG, 6 RPG, 3 BlkPG) will be ineligible to play in the NCAA Tournament due to academic issues. I will leave my original predicitons as they were, but, with this information, I would like to change my National Championship Game loser from Syracuse to Kansas.

Kansas coach Bill Self would love to relive this moment from the 2008 National championship game: missed Derrick Rose free throws that kept his team alive to send the game into overtime and ultimately win. Then-Memphis coach (current Kentucky coach) John Calipari would like to rewrite this moment in history. A rematch isn't out of the question. After the Fab Melo (Syracuse) suspension was announced, it may be "likely". 4

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1) Image from http://cnn.sportsillustrated.com/
2) Image from http://www.hark.com/
3) Image from http://www.dukehoopblog.com/
4) Image from http://www.prosportsblogging.com/