Must See Sports – Fourth Weekend of November 2013

Last week's advantage/disadvantage record, excluding series: 4-3

2013 Advantage/Disadvantage Record, excluding series: 86-71

2013 Advantage/Disadvantage FINAL Record (series only): 22-13-4

Friday, November 22

NBA

San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies are seeking a measure of retribution after being swept by the Spurs in the 2013 Western Conference Finals. The Spurs, to the surprise of nobody, are off to a blazing hot, 10-1, start, including their last eight in a row.

Also, to nobody’s surprise, Spurs point guard Tony Parker (19 PPG, 6 APG) is off to a fast start to the season. Also, to no surprise, the Grizzlies, under the veteran leadership of forward Zach Randolph (17 PPG, 9 RPG) are off to a good start by playing a physical brand of basketball, punishing opponents under the boards.

Memphis is not going to beat San Antonio in a one-game series (barring lineup scratches or injuries), let alone a four game series, until their shooters collectively develop a deeper shooting range. Guard Mike Conley’s improved scoring contribution (19 PPG, 6 APG) has been a welcome addition to the Memphis arsenal and the Grizzlies are at home. But it won’t be enough to thwart the defending conference champions on national television.

Advantage: Spurs

Duncan gets older; the Spurs get better. 1

Saturday, November 23

NCAA Football

#12 Texas A&M Aggies at #22 LSU Tigers

This SEC West rivalry will decide third place in the division. It’s a far cry from the lofty expectations of both programs coming into this season. Still, A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel (3,313 yds., 31 TD, 11 INT, 73% comp.) had some trouble solving LSU’s defense last year at home. Now he has to come to Death Valley.

LSU’s last stand was against Alabama two weeks ago. Johnny Football is competing for a second consecutive Heisman Trophy award. In addition, the Tigers’ defense has had trouble with one or more critical facets of its game at the worst times in all three of their losses. If the Aggies get off to a fast start, expect the crown to mellow out and the Tigers to check out.

Advantage: Texas A&M

#4 Baylor Bears at #10 Oklahoma State Cowboys

Baylor made a statement by spanking Oklahoma, 41-12, proving it can run up the score against a good defense and smother a team with a strong running game. While they surrendered 34 points to pass-happy Texas Tech, they still won by 29 points. Their trio of quarterback Bryce Petty (2,992 yds., 24 TD, 1 INT, 65% comp.), running back Lache Seastrunk (888 yds., 11 TD, 8.7 avg.), and wide receiver Antwan Goodley (48 rec., 1,075 yds., 11 TD) is beginning to look unstoppable.

Oklahoma State has quietly ripped off six consecutive wins and a spot in the top ten. Their recipe? Defense, defense, defense! In the defense-optional Big 12, the Cowboys have only given up 30 or more points in two games this season and held opponents to less than 14 points five times. Cowboys cornerback Justin Gilbert (6 INT) and linebacker Caleb Lavey (2.5 sacks, 4 INT) have been been dismantling opposing offenses and creating short fields for their offense to put points on the board.

All of that said, Baylor has too much octane in its fuel to be corralled by the Cowboys. And Oklahoma State lacks the explosiveness to keep up in a shootout with Baylor.

Advantage: Baylor

#8 Missouri Tigers at #24 Ole Miss Rebels

Missouri quarterback James Franklin (1,577 yds., 14 TD, 3 INT, 68% comp.) returns to the lineup after missing the last four games with a shoulder injury. He’s replacing backup Maty Mauk, who was very efficient in relief. Franklin’s mobility out of the pocket is a welcome tool returned to the Tigers’ offense. I’m not sure if swapping signal callers in the midst of a hot streak is good for the chemistry of the offense, but time will tell.

Ole Miss’ QB Bo Wallace (2,664 yds., 17 TD, 5 INT) has guided the Rebels to four straight wins after a 3-3 start. Senior running back Jeff Scott (488 yds., 2 TD, 7.6 avg.) is also back in the lineup after missing three games due to injury. Ole Miss is at home. I like the Rebels in a minor upset.

Advantage: Ole Miss

Johnny Football is a scoring machine. 2

Sunday, November 24

Indianapolis Colts (7-3) at Arizona Cardinals (6-4)

Arizona is hot while Indy is not. The Colts’ offense does not look the same following the loss of wide receiver Reggie Wayne for the season with a knee injury. The Colts can’t stop the run and are going to have trouble running against a Cardinals team with a ferocious front seven on a defense that has not allowed more than 24 points in any game this season.

Veteran Cardinals linebacker John Abraham (7 sacks, 3 FF, 3 TFL) has been the catalyst on a defense that gets to the quarterback quickly and gives up nothing on the ground. Finally, Carson Palmer (419 yds., 2 TD, 0 INT, 71% comp. last week) appears to be in a comfort zone in the Cards’ offense. The game is in Arizona.   

Advantage: Cardinals

Denver Broncos (9-1) at New England Patriots (7-3)

It’s Manning vs Brady Part 14…! In spite of the Broncos coming off of a huge win over the previously unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs and the Patriots coming off of a stunning loss at Carolina, Peyton Manning (3,572 yds., 34 TD, 6 INT, 65% comp.) is visibly dealing with a nagging ankle injury.

The Patriots’ Tom Brady (2,552 yds., 14 TD, 7 INT, 59 % comp.) is likely seeing red after the questionable ending to the Carolina game and will likely be as focused as ever for a regular season game. Pats RB Shane Vereen (108 yds., 7.2 avg.) returned to the lineup last week and will help against a potent Broncos run defense. Finally, this Sunday Night Football Game is being played at Foxboro.

Advantage: Patriots

The rivalry continues. 3

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Stop! Bracket Time!

It is here! It is time! Cue "One Shining Moment"! MARCH MADNESS IS HERE!!!

BURSTING BUBBLES

Another Selection Sunday has come and gone. Much of what was expected happened. As usual, there were a few unexpected surprises.

The University of Washington, the Pacific 12 Conference regular season champion, was the first ever team to be excluded from the Big Dance after winning the regular season championship of one of the power conferences (Pac-12, Big Ten, Big East, SEC, ACC, Big XII). Drexel, regular season champion of the Colonial Athletic Conference, was snubbed in spite of a 27-6 record after losing to 2011 Final Four participant Virginia Commonweath in the CAA Tournament Championship Game.

Southeastern Conference teams Ole Miss and Mississippi State, both with 20+ regular season wins, did not receive an invite to the Big Dance. South Florida and Seton Hall, both with 20 wins from the hyper-competitive Big East did not get their tickets punched to the field of 64 (USF has to play in a First Four game, Seton Hall was eliminated). Marshall, in spite of being the runner up in the Conference USA tournament, regular season wins of invitees Cincinnati, Iona, a close loss to Syracuse,  and an RPI ranking better than 50, did not receive a bid.

Colonel Reb needs consolation. 1

THE TOP SPOTS

In spite of losing their conference tournament championship games, Kentucky, Syracuse, and North Carolina received three of the four #1 seeds in the tournament, with UK and the top overall seed. This all came as a surprise to nobody, which may be, in large part, why their opponents had windows of opportunity to beat them in their conference tournaments. What few people, except for yours truly, saw coming was Michigan State claiming the fourth #1 seed, as I projected on Thursday.

Conventional wisdom dictated that Kansas, ranked #3 after the conclusion of their regular season, would claim that fourth #1 seed. In the event of Kansas losing unexpectedly early in the Big XII Tournament, as they did to Baylor in the semifinal round, many expected that a Missouri victory in the Big XII tourney would send the #1 seed over to Mizzou. Neither would happen. Instead, Michigan State would beat #7 Ohio State for the second time this season in the third meeting between the teams. The result would be MSU winning the Big Ten Tournament and a #1 seed.

A walking, fighting orange. Yep! It's March Madness! 3

ONE SHINING MOMENT

Bubble team or not, top seed or not, what happens, going forward, will be entirely determined by what 68 teams do in 67 games on the hardwood over the next three weeks. With inspiration from NFL wide receiver Randy Moss, my projections for the Final Four in New Orleans: "Straight chalk, homie!"

I expect #1 seeds Kentucky and Syracuse to be in the Final Four and would be stunned if either of them failed to do so. While I would not be surprised to see both North Carolina and Michigan State in Big Easy, either, I think that a number of teams could give them the slip.

In the Midwest Region, I think that Michigan could present a big problem for UNC in the Sweet 16, though I expect Carolina to survive. I do think that a motivated Kansas team, barring injury to Tyshawn Taylor (17 PPG, 5 APG) or Thomas Robinson (18 PPG, 12 RPG), will be able to outlast North Carolina or any other opponent in the Regional Final in St. Louis.

In the West region, there are several good teams that will take aim at Michigan State and could hit the target. Marquette, Florida, and Missouri could all pose matchup issues for MSU. In the end, I expect an experienced Missouri team, on a mission since a premature exit from the 2011 tournament, to emerge from the West Regional Final in Phoenix.

Get your popcorn ready and fasten your seatbelts. It's going to be a fast, wild ride!!!

4

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Didn’t We Almost Have It All?

On Saturday afternoon, Missouri and Kansas took part in an epic battle, the latest and possibly last in a century old rivalry. The championship of the Big XII hung in the balance. The Missouri Tigers won the first contest between these rivals earlier in the month. The Kansas Jayhawks’ backs were against the wall coming into this game in their own building.

Missouri had the regular season tiebreaker over Kansas. Missouri took an early lead that they would not relinquish for the remainder of regulation. Missouri led by 19 points in the second half. Missouri lost.

4

LIVE BY THE SWORD…DIE BY THE SWORD

By “sword”, I mean the three point shot. In the first meeting, Missouri trailed Kansas late in part because of missed jumpers. They came back with late three point shots and missed free throws by Kansas. This afternoon, Missouri surged far ahead early in the game. The Tigers attempted 29 three point shots, making 11 (six in the first half).

Senior Marcus Denmon, who finished with 28 points, nailed a three point shot to put Mizzou up 19 points. Denmon was 6 for 10 from downtown. The rest of the team didn’t fare so well from behind the arc.

After going up by 19 points, Missouri would go 1 for 8 on three pointers. Missed jump shot after missed jump shot allowed Kansas to climb back into the game. Kansas senior Tyshawn Taylor (24 points) and Thomas Robinson (28 points, 12 rebounds) steadily chipped away at Missouri’s defense. Robinson seemed to be Johnny on the spot, grabbing rebound after rebound following a missed shot by the Tigers. Robinson tied the score with 16 second remaining in the second half, sending the game into overtime.

Robinson: and one! 3

ONE MAN SHOW

Missouri’s Marcus Denmon was spectacular in the extra five minute period. Denmon made three of the Tigers’ four field goals in overtime, including two three pointers and two shots to give Missouri the lead. However, Denmon, who played 44 minutes, appeared to be the only Tiger who was not gassed by the end of regulation. The momentum had completely shifted to Kansas and Missouri could not stop them.

Taylor and Robinson of Kansas would combine to score all 12 of the Jayhawks’ overtime points, with only one field goal coming from beyond the perimeter. Taylor, Robinson, and the Kansas crowd appeared to overwhelm Missouri, who offered little resistance to Kansas’ penetration. The ultimate irony, Marcus Denmon made what would have been a game winning shot for Missouri with no time on the clock. Unfortunately for Denmon and the Tigers, the ball left his hands with no time on the clock.

Denmon helped put Missouri ahead early and keep them in the game during overtime. 2 

CLOSE BUT NO CIGAR

For the second year in a row, Mizzou reached the 25 win plateau in the regular season. For the second year in a row the Tigers began a conference losing streak in late February that began with a loss to Kansas State and included a loss to Kansas. Conversely, Kansas, for the second year in a row, had a winning streak of five or more after beating Missouri. Last year Missouri was one and done in the NCAA Tournament, cleaned out Cincinnati in the round of 64 after limping into the Big Dance. This year?   

The picture says a thousand words. 1

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Must See Sports - Second Weekend of February 2012

Last week's advantage/disadvantage record: 6-1

Must See Sports 2012 record: 20-11

Well, I was an Austin Rivers overtime buzzer-beat away from being a perfect 7-0 last week. If at first you don't succeed....


Thursday, February 9


NBA

Los Angeles Lakers at Boston Celtics

Similar teams…similar histories…similar records…same conference standing. If the NBA regular season ended today, both the Lakers and Celtics would be the seventh seeds in the Western and Eastern conferences, respectively. Both teams are six games back of the top seed. Both teams need the win.

The Lakers are in the more precarious situation as they are only one game away from being out of the top eight in the West (and hence out of the playoffs altogether). Boston has the best defense in the NBA and the Lakers are ranked 4th. So I would not expect a whole lot of fast breaks and scoring.

Momentum is often the difference maker in games between similar teams and the Celtics have it. They have won nine of their last 10 games and are playing at home. The Lakers only have one win against a team with a winning record since beating the Clippers on January 25th. I like the Celtics in this matchup.

Advantage: Celtics

Paul Pierce: #2 Celtics all time leading scorer. 1

Friday, February 10

NBA

Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz

The Thunder still have the NBAs best record, winning eight of their last ten. The Jazz have begun to skid, losing four of their last five. Fortunately for Utah, they are far better at home (11-4) than on the road (2-7).

The Thunder are really good everywhere. In addition, Kevin Durant (27 PPG, 8 RPG) is on a roll, scoring 33 or more points in three of his last five games and inching back into the race for the scoring title. I think the Thunder rolls on.

Advantage: Thunder


Saturday, February 11

NBA

Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers

It’s been a while since the Pacers were of interest to the NBA’s playoff race, other than as an easy win. At 17-8, however, the Pacers have the fourth best record in the Eastern Conference and are 3.5 games back of the Chicago Bulls in the Central Division.

Indiana has been succeeding with power and defense, particularly from forward Danny Granger (18 PPG, 5 RPG) and center Roy Hibbert (14 PPG, 10 RPG, 2 BlkPG). Hibbert has, somewhat quietly, risen to the higher tiers of NBA centers. It has helped bring some pace back to Pacers’ basketball.

The Nuggets, as usual, are in the Western Conference playoff hunt. Life post-Carmelo Anthony has not been as harsh as some expected. Head Coach George Karl has sold the disciplined, team basketball concept to his troops and his players are buying it. The Nuggets score more points per game than any other team in the NBA, get their leading scorer, Danilo Gallinari (17 PPG, 5 RPG) averages less than 20 points per night. With six players averaging double figure scoring (Gallinari, Ty Lawson, Andre Miller, Nenê, and Aaron Affalo), the Nuggets can spread the ball around and get anyone to step up. It’s resulting in wins.

Advantage: Nuggets


NCAA Men's Basketball

#6 Baylor Bears at #4 Missouri Tigers

BIG game in the Big XII. The winner is in the driver’s seat in the Big XII regular season race. After last weekend’s huge, last minute win over Kansas, the Tigers can ill-afford a letdown. Senior guard Marcus Denmon (18 PPG, 5 RPG) has carried the team and will need to continue to do so if Mizzou is to make a serious run at the Final Four. Denmon has scored 25 or more in his last two games. He’s on fire.

Baylor had its four game winning streak snapped last night by Kansas. Leading scorer Perry Jones, III (14 PPG, 8 RPG) was bottled up and held to five points in that game. Scoring will be key against Missouri, ranked #7 in the nation with 81 points per game and second in field goal percentage at 50%. Missouri is prone to being hammered under the boards, an area in which the Bears have excelled. Still, as well as Baylor is playing, the they appear to hit a wall in the “big games”, with a 1-3 record against in-conference, ranked opponents.

Advantage: Missouri


#10 Michigan State Spartans at #3 Ohio State Buckeyes

Ohio State appears to be all but invincible at home. They weathered a storm from Purdue on Tuesday night in a thriller. Senior guard Will Buford (16 PPG, 5 RPG) scored 29 points, putting on a clinic in the final minutes, to keep Ohio State’s home winning streak, now at 39 games, alive.

Michigan State is going to bring more heat to Columbus. Coming off of the heels of a big win over Michigan last Sunday and an obliteration of Penn State last night, the Spartans hope to be the first to strike down the Buckeyes at home this season. Leading scorer Draymond Green (15 PPG, 11 RPG, 4 APG) cannot continue his recent “hit or miss” performances. He has scored less than 10 points in three of his last six games, but put up 23 last night against Penn State and 22 against Minnesota two weeks ago.

Michigan State is very good, but OSU is on a tear and still building steam.

Advantage: Ohio State

Buford was a man among boys on Tuesday. 2

Sunday, February 12

Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks

Your team stinks? Blame LeBron. The Hawks will have that chance on Sunday. The Hawks continue to give the Heat chase in the Southeast division, only two games back. The Hawks continue to employ a balanced approach, embodied by the play of Josh Smith (16 PPG, 9 RPG, 2 BlkPG). Smith is coming off of a big 28 point, 12 rebound, 5 steal performance against the Pacers last night. He and Joe Johnson (19 PPG, 4 RPG, 4 APG) need to continue to step it up to fill the void left by Al Horford’s (12 PPG, 7 RPG) injury. Horford is likely out for the rest of the regular season.

The Heat are hot, pun intended, winning eight of their last 10, in spite of a 102-89 thumping by the Orlando Magic last night. LeBron James (29 PPG, 8RPG, 7 APG) has been in beast mode, with three double-doubles (including last night) in his last seven games and 20 or more points scored in 17 of his last 20 games played. Dwyane Wade’s (22 PPG, 5 APG) return to the lineup hasn’t hurt either. Wade is on a scoring tear, scoring 22 or more points in seven of his eight games following his six game absence due to injury, including 33 last night against Orlando.

The Hawks have a chance to pull off a big win at home. I just don’t see it happening against this Heat team.

Advantage: Heat

The Heat are thrilled to have D-Wade back in the lineup. The Hawks...not so much. 4

Monday, February 13

NCAA Men's Basketball

#2 Syracuse Orange at #23 Louisville Cardinals

Syracuse is one of the five teams most likely to cut down the nets in March (along with Kentucky, Ohio State, North Carolina, and Duke). The Orange pulled off a huge Big East win over #11 Georgetown in overtime. Kris Joseph (14 PPG, 5 RPG) buried the Hoyas with a 29 point performance. He continues to show up in big games, averaging 20 points against ranked opponents.

Louisville was ranked as high as #4 this season, then hit the skids. The Cardinals lost five of seven after starting the season 12-0. While the Cards have been bitten by the injury bug, inconsistent play from key players has been equally to blame. Sophomore guard Russ Smith (12 PPG) needs to be on “reappear” if his recent “disappear and reappear” act is to continue. In Louisville’s five losses, Smith has shot 39% from the field, including a paltry three point performance against Notre Dame and a two point game in a blowout loss to Providence.

Louisville is back on track with a five game winning streak. Best of luck with that in the Carrier Dome….

Advantage: Syracuse

Kris Joseph 3

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Must See Sports, Third Weekend of March 2011 – Special NCAA Tournament Edition

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Top o the mornin’ to ya! What better a way to start St. Patty’s Day than with all of the college basketball you can watch? March Madness is here! Each day of the tournament, we will focus on the NCAA Tournament, and only the NCAA Tournament. Here are some games worth watching in the round of 64.


Thursday, March 17

NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament – Second Round

West Region
(6) Cincinnati Bearcats vs (11) Missouri Tigers

Cincinnati is a team that has lost more games against tougher opponents than it has won. However, it has beaten quality teams, such as a 20+ point drubbing of Georgetown (albeit a Chris Wright-less Georgetown) in the regular season finale. The Bearcats are a team that can advance far and pull off some upsets if they catch lightning in a bottle. That will depend on the preparation and performance of Cincy forward Yancy Gates (12 PPG, 7 RPG) and guard Dion Dixon (12 PPG).

Mizzou is a club that can score a TON of points, led by guard Marcus Denmon (17 PPG, 46% 3PT), and that makes them dangerous in any single elimination tournament. They struggled in their conference, going 8-8 in the Big XII. But once a team is in The Dance, everyone is 0-0 and this is a game worth watching.

Advantage: Cincinnati


East Region
(4) Kentucky Wildcats vs (13) Princeton Tigers

This SHOULD be a one sided game, on paper. But I have watched Kentucky look flat, several times, against inferior competition, such as Ole Miss and Arkansas, this season and Princeton is riding a confident high streak, with its dramatic, last second win over Harvard to qualify for the NCAA Tournament. Kentucky’s Terrance Jones and Brandon Knight will decide how far this team goes. Princeton has had good moments against quality opponents, beating Rutgers and making then 21st ranked Central Florida sweat. I expect Kentucky to win, but Princeton is capable of sucker punching the Wildcats if the Cats aren’t prepared.

Advantage: Kentucky


Southwest Region
(5) Vanderbilt Commodores vs (12) Richmond Spiders

The “12-5” upsets seem to be an annual tradition in the big dance, and Vandy is ripe for the picking. Vanderbilt is simply not consistent and they have trouble putting away opponents. Richmond is a quality mid-major, winners of the Atlantic 10 Tournament, with single-digit losses and wins over #8 Purdue and #25 Temple during the regular season. This could be a problem for the SEC school.

Advantage: Richmond




Southeast Region
(7) UCLA Bruins vs (10) Michigan State Spartans

Can anyone explain to me how UCLA is a seventh seed? Does anyone believe the quality of their Pac-10 schedule is tougher than the Big-10 schedule with which Michigan State had to contend? Would you REALLY bet against Tom Izzo’s Spartans in this matchup? Could you string together more rhetorical questions in a single paragraph?

Advantage: Michigan State

Are you REALLY going to pick UCLA over any team coached by THIS guy? 2

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