If at first you don’t succeed, dust yourself off and try again. I whiffed a little on the NFC, just one contest into the season. But my AFC slate is clean thus far! Here’s to do-overs! Teams are listed by division in order of expected finish.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens – This is going to be a tough division with three tough teams, all with the potential to reach the playoffs. The Ravens came up three points, a dropped touchdown pass and a missed 32 yard field goal short of a chance to go to the Super Bowl.
Expect the same formula by Head Coach John Harbaugh with the benefit of an additional year of experience. The defense, led by ageless middle linebacker Ray Lewis, will be smothering. The offense will ground and pound the ball with running back Ray Rice. And quarterback Joe Flacco will do what it takes to give the team a chance to win. How much they have improved will depend on their execution in the playoffs.
Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers may have a few tender spots exposed with the retirement of wide receiver Hines Ward, some again in the secondary, and a few question marks in the running game. As long as Ben Roethlisberger remains healthy, though, the Steel Curtain is going to drop on the enemy more often than flop beneath their feet.
Cincinnati Bengals – This team has not strung together consecutive playoff appearances in 30 years. I expect 2012 to be no different. I do expect second year quarterback Andy Dalton to build upon his rookie year success and have the Bengals competitive in nearly all of their games. I expect the Bengals to finish 8-8 or better barring a rash of injuries. I simply think that “AFC Playoffs Town” isn’t big enough to accommodate Cincinnati in a very competitive AFC field.
Cleveland Browns – Like I said, there are three tough teams in the AFC North. The Browns aren’t one of them. Rookie running back Trent Richardson and 28 year old rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden should fasten their seatbelts for a very bumpy ride in contrast to the smooth sailing they experienced at their top ten college programs (Alabama and Oklahoma State, respectively).
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| Ray Lewis: "I'm not getting older; I'm getting better!" 1 |
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans – The Texans are the trendy, sexy pick in the AFC with good reason. First, barring a smattering of injuries across the board, they should coast to the AFC South championship. The division is just not that tough this year. Second they advanced to the second round of the playoffs in spite of losing All Pro wide receiver Andre Johnson for most of the season due to injury, Matt Schaub for the season (late in the season) due to a freak foot injury, and then backup QB Matt Leinart, who apparently fell off of the bench following Schaub’s injury (lost for the season the week after Schaub’s injury).
The Texans managed to win the South and beat the Bengals in the Wild Card round of the AFC Playoffs under a rookie, third string quarterback in T.J. Yates. The prevailing thought, with which I agree, is if the Texans made such strides with a “next man up” personnel mantra, how far can they go with nearly all of the key players returning and everyone (on a young team) with a year more of experience?
Tennessee Titans – I don’t expect the Titans to reach the playoffs, but this team has had a knack for pulling its talent together and overachieving. Second year quarterback Jake Locker was handed the keys to the Titans’ safe this season over veteran Matt Hasselbeck. I can only imagine that Locker made strides in the offseason as Hasselbeck had an injured and gutted Titans offense keeping the team alive in the playoff race much later in the season than expected. I expect the Titans to be a tough out, but an out nonetheless against the better teams in the AFC.
Indianapolis Colts – This team is a long way from returning to glory, but between the expectations and what little I have seen of rookie quarterback Andrew Luck, I expect them to be a long way from being on the draft clock at the end of the season, too. This team has too many holes to make any real run at the postseason, no matter how well Luck performs. The running game is mediocre, the receiving core is just okay, and the defense was laughable last season. There are only so many new bodies the Colts could have brought in during the offseason to turn the Swiss Cheese D around in one year.
Jacksonville Jaguars – You can never judge the long term prospects of a quarterback based solely on his rookie year. That said, second year QB Blaine Gabbert did not show the world very much in his rookie year. His play was awful. The receiving corps us a collection of relative unknowns. The offensive line is unremarkable. And the new owner, Shad Khan, has ruffled the feathers of their best player, running back Maurice Jones-Drew. This feels like a real life version of the movie Major League in which the owner sabotaged the team so it would tank and could justify moving. How does the ring of “Los Angeles Jaguars” sound?
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| Luck: the Colts are going to need it. 2 |
AFC East
New England Patriots – This is a team that typically does not rebuild; it reloads. After the protracted holdout of wide receiver Wes Welker and the loss of running back Benjarvus Green-Ellis, the Patriots set out to defend their AFC Championship and win their first Super Bowl in the post-Spygate era. The one constant that the Patriots can count on, assuming he is healthy, is quarterback Tom Brady. He will keep the Patriots in every game. The question is the defense and if it will hold water or be a leaky sieve like it was last season.
New York Jets – Just because I think the Jets will finish second in the division does not mean that I am confident that they will be good. The defense will be good. The offense could sink the team into the abyss.
Quarterback Mark Sanchez is not an elite NFL quarterback, He is a signal caller who can make plays when given the opportunity. Bringing in the biggest rock star backup QB in the history of pro football in Tim Tebow, failing to staff any quality receiving talent other than Santonio Holmes at wide receiver, and lacking any running backs whose names we would know if this team did not play in New York is not giving Sanchez any fair opportunity.
Buffalo Bills – You know this team has very little to look forward to when the wooing and acquiring of a defensive end, Mario Williams, with $50 million in guaranteed money is headline sports news for two weeks during the offseason. Buffalo has enough talent to beat the inferior teams and periodically sucker punch a superior opponent. Expect Williams to be flying back home, down south, for the winter with the geese.
Miami Dolphins – Hard Knocks is over and so are the Dolphins' 15 minutes in 2012. I will go as far to say that the Dolphins are on the clock.
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| Here you go, ladies: Tom Terrific 3 |
AFC West
Denver Broncos – This team managed to advance to the second round of the playoffs with the statistical equivalent of Clint Eastwood’s empty chair at quarterback last season. The sky is the limit with future Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning at the controls, assuming he stays healthy.
San Diego Chargers – The Chargers will put points on the board and pressure on every opponent every week because they have quarterback Philip Rivers and Head Coach Norv Turner. This team will not sniff the second round of the playoffs because they have Head Coach Norv Turner.
Oakland Raiders – This team will be competitive within its division. The defense and and quarterback are great unknowns. First year Head Coach Dennis Allen was the defensive backs coach of the 2009 New Orleans Saints, a team with a secondary that helped the team lead the NFL in takeaways and scoring defense. Should some of that translate into this year’s Raiders defense, perhaps the Silver and Black can make the Broncos and Chargers sweat.
Kansas City Chiefs – Romeo Crennel seems like a nice guy and a bright defensive mind. How is it that he has the misfortune of getting the booby prizes of coaching opportunities? His first NFL head coaching gig was in Cleveland and, miraculously guided the team to its best regular season record in 13 years, going 10-6 in 2007. Not so miraculously (one might say “expectedly” considering the fortune of Cleveland sports teams), the Browns 10-6 record, good enough to get teams to the playoffs 90% of the time (give or take), was in the unfortunate 10% that missed the postseason.
Crennel is getting a second shot after stopping a Chiefs free fall in 2011. I am just not convinced that he has the quarterback in Matt Cassel or the personnel to be successful quickly enough in today’s “What have you done for me lately?” NFL coaching landscape.
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| Peyton Manning: He is back! 4 |
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