NFL Preview 2013 – AFC

Yesterday we discussed the NFC. Now for the other half of the NFL as we return to football tonight! Teams are listed by division in expected order of finish.

Trivial side note: this is The Daily Hat Trick's 1,000th posting. Thanks for reading!!!

AFC NORTH

Cincinnati Bengals – Cincinnati has been quietly building up for a serious Super Bowl run for the past two seasons. The next step is to win the division and I think they are ready to do it. Andy Dalton manages a game as efficiently as any good NFL quarterback. The defense is very solid and underrated, in my opinion. The backfield, with rookie Giovani Bernard and the "Law Firm" of Benjarvis Green-Ellis is going to be an extremely difficult 1-2 punch to defend. And Head Coach Marvin Lewis is due.

Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers missing the playoffs is...odd. That is exactly what happened last season. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is back and healthy, as healthy as he will ever be. Losing running back Rashard Mendenhall to the Arizona Cardinals in free agency in the offseason was significant. I'm not sold on Isaac Redman or rookie Le'Veon Bell (who is out for Week 1 with a foot injury) at tailback. The running game has to improve for a team with the Steelers' smash mouth identity (and no more Pro Bowl wide receiver Mike Wallace) to compete with the Bengals and Baltimore Ravens in 2013.

Baltimore Ravens – The defending Super Bowl champions lost a lot of players this past offseason to free agency, trades, or retirement. Examples include a couple of future Hall of Famers - linebacker Ray Lewis and safety Ed Reed - safety Bernard Pollard, wide receiver Anquan Boldin and a host of other talented, standout players. Super Bowl XLVII MVP quarterback Joe Flacco is going to have to earn his record contract this year. I simply think the Ravens had too many departures to be the force in the AFC that they were last season.

Cleveland Browns – To borrow a little Family Guy shtick.... There's the opening kickoff...and the season's over!

Chloe Call, Giovani Bernard's girlfriend might be in for a treat as a first-year NFL WAG (Wives And Girlfriends).

AFC SOUTH

Houston Texans – When? When is this team going to live up to all of the potential that we can clearly see? The Texans have had two carbon copy seasons: division titles, first round wins at home over the Bengals, and humbling second round losses. The only thing getting in the way of the Houston Texans making a deep playoff run is the Houston Texans.

It starts with quarterback Matt Schaub and it ends with a defense that gave up too many critical, ill-timed plays last season. The addition of safety Ed Reed, assuming he is healthy, might be what pushes this team to the next level. Their window is starting to close. It may be 2013 or bust for the Texans' Super Bowl prospects in the near future.

Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck was impressive in his rookie year. The Colts exceeded all expectations as they went from the worst team in the league in 2011 to an 11-5 playoff team last season. Luck needs to take better care of the football if the Colts are going to wrestle the AFC South title back from the two time defending division champion Texans. The addition of running back Ahmad Bradshaw should give Indy some power running and short yardage potency and boost what was an anemic running game last season.

The big question mark was the defense. They could not stop the run and did not put much pressure on the quarterback, especially late in games. The Colts drafted several defensive players in the 2013 NFL Draft, including pass rusher Bjoern Werner out of Florida State. His speed makes him a perfect fit in the Colts' 3-4 scheme. Adding Pro Bowl safety LaRon Landry to the secondary will also provide a huge boost. I am not clear, however, about how the leadership vacuum left by the departure of All-Pro defensive end Dwight Freeney will impact the defensive unit.

Tennessee Titans – Tennessee could fly under the radar and make some noise in 2013. They've beefed up their defense substantially, adding enforcer Bernard Pollard at safety for example, and have a host of young players with another year of experience under their belts. The real keys to the Titans' success under third year Head Coach Mike Munchak, however, is staying healthy, Pro Bowl running back Chris Johnson getting off to a fast start, and quarterback Jake Locker stepping his game up in his third season. The latter is critical.

Jacksonville Jaguars – Here's a haiku...ahem!

The Jaguars are trash
They really stink so badly
Corpses smell better

The Texans need Andre Johnson to find the end zone more than he did last year. Johnson had 112 receptions, but only four for touchdowns in 2012. 2

AFC East

New England Patriots – The Patriots will run away with the division, but not because they are so good. The rest of the division is that bad. The Pats have some serious problems for a team that is expected to contend for the Super Bowl every year. Wide receiver Wes Welker is gone, run off by management to the Denver Broncos and quarterback Tom Brady's rival/nemesis, Peyton Manning. Pro Bowl tight end Aaron Hernandez is in jail and probably not coming out...ever. Pro Bowl tight end Rob Gronkowski might miss a fourth of the season or more. Versatile scat-back Danny Woodhead went to find greener pastures in San Diego. The Patriots are probably going to win a very bad division. I don't see a Super Bowl run this season.

Miami Dolphins – The Dolphins have a chance to make the Patriots sweat a little in 2013. The X factors are the development of second year quarterback Ryan Tannehill and how well he meshes with prize free agent wide receiver Mike Wallace. In addition, second year left tackle Jonathan Martin has some huge shoes to fill following the departure of All-Pro Jake Long to the St. Louis Rams. Picking up former Pro Bowl cornerback Brent Grimes from the Atlanta Falcons in free agency should help what was a porous pass secondary last year. Still, this team is taking baby steps, rather than quantum leaps. A 9-7 season under second year Head Coach Joe Philbin would be a smashing success, but an 8-8 finish is more likely.

Buffalo Bills – What can go wrong will go wrong. The Bills drafted quarterback E.J. Manuel out of Florida State in the first round of the 2013 NFL Draft knowing that he would have a lot of developing to do. For that reason, the Bills wisely brought in veteran Kevin Kolb to ease Manuel's transition to the NFL. Then Kolb suffered a serious, potentially career ending concussion in the preseason. It is going to be a fast and furious introduction to the league for the rookie and probably going to be a very long year in Buffalo.

New York Jets – The Rex Ryan circus is grinding to a close in the Big Apple. The good news for the Jets is that they are the front runner in the Jadaveon Clowney sweepstakes; they're on the clock. The bad news for Head Coach Rex Ryan is that he won't be in New York to reap the benefits. This is going to end badly. Mark Sanchez is not an All-Pro, but he gave Ryan the chance to win the most possible games.

What happened? Rex Ryan went "Rex Ryan" and put his first string quarterback behind a second string offensive line in the fourth quarter of a meaningless preseason finale that led to Sanchez injuring his shoulder. At least Ryan only needs to look in the mirror to figure out who is responsible for his demise.

Can you believe this is the same guy just three years ago? What the hell happened?

AFC West

Denver Broncos – It is Super Bowl or bust for Peyton Manning and the Broncos this year. They are the front runners, coming off of a bitterly disappointing end to their 2012 season with a double-overtime loss to the eventual Super Bowl champion Ravens last January. Simply put: the AFC is Denver's to lose in 2013.

Kansas City Chiefs – I don't think I can overstate how much the trade for quarterback Alex Smith from the San Francisco 49ers is going to help this team. This team has talented players. Running back Jamaal Charles and wide receiver Dwayne Bowe are potential Pro Bowlers every year. However, they were completely bankrupt at the QB position last year. The additions of rookie Eric Fisher out of Central Michigan at right tackle and rookie running back Knile Davis out of Arkansas will offer protection and backfield depth that the Chiefs sorely lacked last year.

The biggest upgrade? At Head Coach, hiring Andy Reid, with an NFC Championship and five NFC Championship Game appearances on his resume. They were 2-14 last year. This is not a 2-14 team this year.

San Diego Chargers – This is a career defining year for quarterback Philip Rivers. He appeared to take a big step backwards last year, other offensive personnel issues notwithstanding. The bad news is that the Bolts did not make major waves in free agency and wide receiver depth is still an issue. They added rookie Keenan Allen out of California, but released Robert Meachem in large part for salary reasons. Eddie Royal was a woeful underachiever in 2012 and is suffering from a bruised lung from an injury in preseason. Royal will probably play in Week 1, but Rivers has his work cut out for him.

The Chargers' defense was already respectable and adding former All-Pro Dwight Freeney and rookie middle linebacker and Heisman finalist Manti Te'o out of Notre Dame can only help. It all points back to Rivers and the offense. Can he rally this team and overcome the team's pass catching shortcomings?

Oakland Raiders – Terrelle Pryor is starting at quarterback for the Raiders this year. That wasn't the plan when they acquired Matt Flynn from the Seattle Seahawks in the offseason. That, of course, was necessitated because Carson Palmer asked to get out of town on the next available train, a wise choice.

The Raiders looked completely hapless on defense in the preseason. Just because the games didn't count doesn't mean that they didn't matter. Everything about this team is a mess. Expect Head Coach Dennis Allen to be circulating his resume after this season is over.

Pretty much.... 1

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NFL Home Stretch: The AFC

Continued from yesterday's evaluation of the NFC.... Preseason comments in black; Week 14 remarks in blue.

AFC NORTH

Baltimore Ravens (9-3) – This is going to be a tough division with three tough teams, all with the potential to reach the playoffs. The Ravens came up three points, a dropped touchdown pass and a missed 32 yard field goal short of a chance to go to the Super Bowl.

Expect the same formula by Head Coach John Harbaugh with the benefit of an additional year of experience. The defense, led by ageless middle linebacker Ray Lewis, will be smothering. The offense will ground and pound the ball with running back Ray Rice. And quarterback Joe Flacco will do what it takes to give the team a chance to win. How much they have improved will depend on their execution in the playoffs.

I remarked, earlier in the season, that anything short of the AFC Championship Game for the Ravens would be a bitter disappointment, barring any major injuries to quarterback Joe Flacco or middle linebacker Ray Lewis. Lo and behold, Lewis has a triceps injury that threatened to end his season.

But, super (outside) linebacker Terrell Suggs, like some kind of medical miracle, returns to the lineup months ahead of schedule. Now, Suggs is hurt again. I will certainly not write off this talented football team, but the injury situation has made the Houston Texans, not the Ravens, the team to beat in the AFC. 


Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) – The Steelers may have a few tender spots exposed with the retirement of wide receiver Hines Ward, some again in the secondary, and a few question marks in the running game. As long as Ben Roethlisberger remains healthy, though, the Steel Curtain is going to drop on the enemy more often than flop beneath their feet.

Pittsburgh saved its season with its come from behind, gutsy, inspired victory against the Ravens last Sunday. But the injury bug has bitten them too hard. No Ben Roethlisberger, no Troy Polamolu, and no Ike Taylor...no division title. How healthy they are in January will determine whether or not they can make any serious waves in the playoffs, if they reach the playoffs.

Cincinnati Bengals (7-5) – This team has not strung together consecutive playoff appearances in 30 years. I expect 2012 to be no different. I do expect second year quarterback Andy Dalton to build upon his rookie year success and have the Bengals competitive in nearly all of their games. I expect the Bengals to finish 8-8 or better barring a rash of injuries. I simply think that “AFC Playoffs Town” isn’t big enough to accommodate Cincinnati in a very competitive AFC field.

Don't sleep on this team, winners of four straight with no glaring weaknesses. They are flying very quietly under the radar and getting very hot at the right time.

Cleveland Browns (4-8) – Like I said, there are three tough teams in the AFC North. The Browns aren’t one of them. Rookie running back Trent Richardson and 28 year old rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden should fasten their seatbelts for a very bumpy ride in contrast to the smooth sailing they experienced at their top ten college programs (Alabama and Oklahoma State, respectively).

This team has a lot of heart, remaining competitive with a number of superior opponents until late in the game. They simply do not have the firepower needed to keep up with and close out the lions' share of NFL opponents. 

Ray Lewis is not bulletproof. Will it derail the Ravens season? 1

AFC SOUTH

Houston Texans (11-1) – The Texans are the trendy, sexy pick in the AFC with good reason. First, barring a smattering of injuries across the board, they should coast to the AFC South championship. The division is just not that tough this year. Second they advanced to the second round of the playoffs in spite of losing All Pro wide receiver Andre Johnson for most of the season due to injury, Matt Schaub for the season (late in the season) due to a freak foot injury, and then backup QB Matt Leinart, who apparently fell off of the bench following Schaub’s injury (lost for the season the week after Schaub’s injury).

The Texans managed to win the South and beat the Bengals in the Wild Card round of the AFC Playoffs under a rookie, third string quarterback in T.J. Yates. The prevailing thought, with which I agree, is if the Texans made such strides with a “next man up” personnel mantra, how far can they go with nearly all of the key players returning and everyone (on a young team) with a year more of experience?

To borrow a line from New Orleans rapper Baby Boy Da Prince, "Best team in the league, whatcha know 'bout 'dat?" Their secondary depth could be this team's kryptonite come playoff time. For now, however, the Texans appear to be coasting to the #1 seed in the AFC Playoffs.

Tennessee Titans (4-8) – I don’t expect the Titans to reach the playoffs, but this team has had a knack for pulling its talent together and overachieving. Second year quarterback Jake Locker was handed the keys to the Titans’ safe this season over veteran Matt Hasselbeck. I can only imagine that Locker made strides in the offseason as Hasselbeck had an injured and gutted Titans offense keeping the team alive in the playoff race much later in the season than expected. I expect the Titans to be a tough out, but an out nonetheless against the better teams in the AFC.

Their defense just plain sucks and will not improve with the current personnel. If I am Titans Coach Mike Munchak (assuming he is still the coach in 2013, and I think he deserves to be), I am using all of my draft picks on defensive players. Every...last...one.

Indianapolis Colts (8-4) – This team is a long way from returning to glory, but between the expectations and what little I have seen of rookie quarterback Andrew Luck, I expect them to be a long way from being on the draft clock at the end of the season, too. This team has too many holes to make any real run at the postseason, no matter how well Luck performs. The running game is mediocre, the receiving core is just okay, and the defense was laughable last season. There are only so many new bodies the Colts could have brought in during the offseason to turn the Swiss Cheese D around in one year.

The Colts are about a year ahead of schedule in their rebuilding plan and quarterback Andrew Luck is the central reason. He has exceeded what some thought were unrealistically high expectations in his rookie year and has the Colts in the driver's seat for a playoff berth. Considering the coaching situation with Head Coach Chuck Pagano's leukemia and Bruce Arians' leadership as Interim Head Coach, the Colts are easily the feel good story of 2012. Their defense is going to be the death of them in the playoffs, I believe. But just suggesting that the Colts would have a playoff life to lose this season is remarkable.   


Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10) – You can never judge the long term prospects of a quarterback based solely on his rookie year. That said, second year QB Blaine Gabbert did not show the world very much in his rookie year. His play was awful. The receiving corps us a collection of relative unknowns. The offensive line is unremarkable. And the new owner, Shad Khan, has ruffled the feathers of their best player, running back Maurice Jones-Drew. This feels like a real life version of the movie Major League in which the owner sabotaged the team so it would tank and could justify moving. How does the ring of “Los Angeles Jaguars” sound?

Worst team in da league, whatcha know 'bout 'dat?

Could there be an easier vote for Coach of the Year?

AFC East

New England Patriots (9-3) – This is a team that typically does not rebuild; it reloads. After the protracted holdout of wide receiver Wes Welker and the loss of running back Benjarvus Green-Ellis, the Patriots set out to defend their AFC Championship and win their first Super Bowl in the post-Spygate era. The one constant that the Patriots can count on, assuming he is healthy, is quarterback Tom Brady. He will keep the Patriots in every game. The question is the defense and if it will hold water or be a leaky sieve like it was last season.

Should win the division...blah blah blah. Future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady...yada yada yada. Belichick is a great coach...yeah yeah. THEIR SECONDARY SUCKS! The competition in the AFC is about two steps up from last season. I do not expect a deep playoff run from this team.

New York Jets (5-7) – Just because I think the Jets will finish second in the division does not mean that I am confident that they will be good. The defense will be good. The offense could sink the team into the abyss.

Quarterback Mark Sanchez is not an elite NFL quarterback, He is a signal caller who can make plays when given the opportunity. Bringing in the biggest rock star backup QB in the history of pro football in Tim Tebow, failing to staff any quality receiving talent other than Santonio Holmes at wide receiver, and lacking any running backs whose names we would know if this team did not play in New York is not giving Sanchez any fair opportunity.

Every team needs a scapegoat and quarterback Mark Sanchez has risen to the role. That doesn't mean it is his fault. Mark Sanchez is not the problem. Coach Rex Ryan knows exactly what Sanchez is: a game manager. You have to protect him, you have to have competent receivers for him to throw to, you have to get your defense off of the field to increase your time of possession advantage to give a quarterback like Sanchez a chance to help your team win. The Jets have failed with "F minus" averages in all of these areas.

Interestingly, they are in second place as I expected. So are two other teams in this four team division.

Buffalo Bills (5-7) – You know this team has very little to look forward to when the wooing and acquiring of a defensive end, Mario Williams, with $50 million in guaranteed money is headline sports news for two weeks during the offseason. Buffalo has enough talent to beat the inferior teams and periodically sucker punch a superior opponent. Expect Williams to be flying back home, down south, for the winter with the geese.

Buffalo impresses me as a team that has taken very small baby steps since 2010. An 8-8 finish would be a man's step forward. Their running game is solved with C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick (2,471 yds., 20 TD, 12 INT, 61% comp.) is good enough to run the offense with the right pieces around him, like a better offensive line and a pass catching tight end.

The pass rush is good. The secondary is good. The linebackers are awful and the d-line cannot tackle opposing running backs. This team is a few pieces away from contending next season.

Miami Dolphins (5-7) – Hard Knocks is over and so are the Dolphins' 15 minutes in 2012. I will go as far to say that the Dolphins are on the clock.

The Dolphins finally found their quarterback to replace Dan Marino after his retirement following the 1999 season. Ryan Tannehill may have arrived 12 years later than needed, but what's past is past and the Dolphins have a bright future with this young man. As he matures and is allowed to do more with the offense, the Dolphins will be contending with the Patriots for the AFC East title. Like the Patriots, however, the Fins must do something about their embarrassingly porous secondary. Tannehill has loads of potential, but he is not good enough to make up for that glaring deficiency on his team like the New England quarterback. 

Here you go, ladies: Tom Terrific. Too bad he can't play defense. 3

AFC West

Denver Broncos (9-3) – This team managed to advance to the second round of the playoffs with the statistical equivalent of Clint Eastwood’s empty chair at quarterback last season. The sky is the limit with future Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning at the controls, assuming he stays healthy.

Peyton Manning is back and so are "your daddy's" Denver Broncos! Manning continues to get more comfortable in this offense and the Broncos are improving as a team every week. A trip to the AFC Championship game is becoming more of an expectation, this year, rather than a goal for this team.

San Diego Chargers (4-8) – The Chargers will put points on the board and pressure on every opponent every week because they have quarterback Philip Rivers and Head Coach Norv Turner. This team will not sniff the second round of the playoffs because they have Head Coach Norv Turner.

Head Coach Norv Turner's imminent firing is like returning an overdue library book and not paying the fine: the damage cannot be undone and nothing is being done to make up for it. Quarterback Philip Rivers has completely regressed without star wide receiver Vincent Jackson on the team anymore and without a potent running threat. Their game plan is predictable and can bee seen a mile away and the defense appears to have no foresight. Don't be surprised if the Bolts clean house after the season.

Oakland Raiders (3-9) – This team will be competitive within its division. The defense and and quarterback are great unknowns. First year Head Coach Dennis Allen was the defensive backs coach of the 2009 New Orleans Saints, a team with a secondary that helped the team lead the NFL in takeaways and scoring defense. Should some of that translate into this year’s Raiders defense, perhaps the Silver and Black can make the Broncos and Chargers sweat.

Can someone explain to me WHY General Manager Reggie McKenzie thought he was better off firing former Head Coach Hue Jackson, just a win away from returning this franchise to the playoffs for the first time in nine years, after the 2011 season? That explanation should be much more complicated than why current Head Coach Dennis Allen (or McKenzie himself) gets the ax, should that happen.

Kansas City Chiefs (2-10) – Romeo Crennel seems like a nice guy and a bright defensive mind. How is it that he has the misfortune of getting the booby prizes of coaching opportunities? His first NFL head coaching gig was in Cleveland and, miraculously guided the team to its best regular season record in 13 years, going 10-6 in 2007. Not so miraculously (one might say “expectedly” considering the fortune of Cleveland sports teams), the Browns 10-6 record, good enough to get teams to the playoffs 90% of the time (give or take), was in the unfortunate 10% that missed the postseason.

Crennel is getting a second shot after stopping a Chiefs free fall in 2011. I am just not convinced that he has the quarterback in Matt Cassel or the personnel to be successful quickly enough in today’s “What have you done for me lately?” NFL coaching landscape.

It is difficult to discuss football and the Kansas City Chiefs after the unspeakable tragedy that took place last Saturday, but this is a sports blog and this is an opinion on football. All I'll say is that I hope Head Coach Romeo Crennel gets a second full season, considering how bankrupt his team was at quarterback through no fault of Crennel's, heading into this season. 

Place kicker Sebastian Janikowski, left, and punter Shane Lechler, right. Any questions? 4

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NFL – One Quarter Point – AFC

Earlier this week, the Hat Trick gave its two cents on all 16 NFC teams after four weeks. Today, the AFC is presented.

AFC NORTH

Baltimore Ravens (3-1) – Anything short of the AFC Championship Game, assuming no injuries to quarterback Joe Flacco (1,269 yds., 7 TD, 3 INT, 64% comp.) or middle linebacker Ray Lewis (33 tak., 1 sack, 1 FF), is an underachievement for this team. Flacco appears to finally be answering his critics, averaging over 300 yards per game through the air. The Ravens secondary has been loosey-goosey, but I do not expect that to last long.

Cincinnati Bengals (3-1) – Quarterback Andy Dalton (1,111 yds., 8 TD, 4 INT, 68% comp.) has answered any questions about a sophomore slump so far. He is quickly developing into a playmaker. It remains to be seen, however, if the Bengals can compete with the upper tier teams in the AFC.

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) – Someone should remind the Steelers that running the ball is still allowed in the NFL (ranked 30th in the NFL in rushing offense). Rashard Mendenhall’s return to the lineup cannot come soon enough. Fix the running attack and the Steelers can beat anyone in the NFL.

Cleveland Browns (0-4) – Colt McCoy should be glad he’s been benched for rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden (997 yds., 3 TD, 7 INT, 54% comp., 9 sacks). His career will last longer. This team was finished at the opening kickoff of Week 1. Stick a fork in ‘em.

Ray Lewis to Brandon Weeden: "Welcome to the NFL!" 1

AFC SOUTH

Houston Texans (4-0) – The best team in the NFL. This team has no weaknesses. Texans Fan’s only concern should be if they fall behind. Houston has not had to throw the ball as much as in the past and may find themselves in unfamiliar territory if they are forced to score points quickly.

Indianapolis Colts (1-2) – Rookie quarterback and first pick in the 2012 NFL Draft Andrew Luck (846 yds., 5 TD, 4 INT, 53% comp.) has been what he was expected to be so far – a smart kid who makes good decisions, manages the game well, and can utilize his strong arm. This team has gone from being top-to-bottom awful to having its only glaring weakness being stopping the run. There won’t be any playoffs for this team in 2012, but a 7 or 8 win season is not out of the question and would represent a significant improvement over that season. How the team adapts to the absence of rookie Head Coach Chuck Pagano, being treated for leukemia, remains to be seen.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) – Life is imitating art, as in the movie Major League in which the fictitious Cleveland Indians owner deliberately tried to tank the team so she could justify a move out of town. What’s the over/under on the number of years before this team is renamed the Los Angeles Diablos? Their only worthwhile asset is running back Maurice Jones-Drew (352 yds., 1 TD, 4.9 avg.). Second year quarterback Blaine Gabbert (654 yds., 5 TD, 1 INT 56% comp.) is quickly answering questions about a possible sophomore breakout – there won’t be any.

Tennessee Titans (1-3) – I am in the minority opinion that the Titans are better off with the experienced Matt Hasselbeck (236 yds., 2 TD, 2 INT, 64% comp.) at quarterback over second year QB Jake Locker (781 yds., 4 TD, 2 INT, 63% comp.). If running back Chris Johnson (186 yds., 3.2 avg.) can run the ball for the rest of the season like he did last week against the stingy Houston Texans, a .500 season is not out of the question for the Titans.

J.J. Watt and the Texans have the AFC South bowing down. 2

AFC EAST

New England Patriots (2-2) – They continue to get torched in the air. While I expect the Pats to win the AFC East (almost by default), they are set up for an early exit in the playoffs with teams like Houston, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh in the mix.

New York Jets (2-2) – This team has the most misleading .500 record in football. The Jets have scored 81 points this year while surrendering 109 points. They cannot stop the run anymore than pot laws can stop stoners. The only potent weapon at the disposal of quarterback Mark Sanchez (813 yds., 5 TD, 4 INT, 49% comp.), wide receiver Santonio Holmes (20 rec., 272 yds., 1 TD), is out for the season. If Head Coach Rex Ryan gets desperate, pulls the plug on Sanchez, and inserts Tim Tebow, stick a fork in Gang Green.

Buffalo Bills (2-2) – I don’t know what to make of this team. If running back C.J. Spiller (341 yds., 3 TD, 8.3 avg.) can continue on anything close to the torrid pace to which he has begun the season and the defensive line, particularly $100 million man Mario Williams (9 tack., 1.5 sacks), can live up to expectations (which they are not thus far) Buffalo could be in the playoff discussion come December. That is a long time from now.

Miami Dolphins (1-3) – Their record meets expectations. Their actual level of play has slightly exceeded expectations for a 1-3 record. Rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s (1,046 yds., 2 TD, 6 INT, 56% comp.) career is off to as good of a start as one could ask, excluding the first game of his career against the currently undefeated Houston Texans in which he got his teeth kicked in as one would expect. If their secondary had football players instead of paper soldiers, the Fins could be a surprise contender. But they aren’t, so the Dolphins are not.

If Sexy Rexy wants to keep his job, he'll make sure the only headgear Tebow picks up has a wire attached to it. 3

AFC WEST

San Diego Chargers (3-1) – At the moment, the Chargers are playing the best football of any team in the AFC West. That should surprise nobody as it has been the case, or close to it, every season for nearly a decade. That could change as the Denver Broncos continue to gel under new quarterback Peyton Manning. Norv Turner’s offense has gotten conspicuously conservative in the wake of wide receiver Vincent Jackson’s defection to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers via free agency this past offseason. As always, the Chargers real test will come in January, however, not the fall.

Denver Broncos (2-2) – On paper, this team should be at least 3-1. If the first quarter of their game at Atlanta could be erased, they would be. They do everything well and their quarterback play, under future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning (1,162 yds., 8 TD, 3 INT, 65% comp.), continues to improve every week. They are on a collision course with the San Diego Chargers.

Oakland Raiders (1-3) – About 10 years ago, the Raiders were the winningest franchise (win pct.) in NFL history. They have been “almost back” for the past two seasons. They’re back to being bad. In a two (or more) heavy-use running back per team league, the Raiders have nothing…NOTHING behind Darren McFadden (201 yds., 1 TD, 3.5 avg.). The defense has more holes than the remains of Osama bin Laden. Raider Nation can start waiting for next year right now.

Kansas City Chiefs (1-3) – If you ignore the government cheese like giveaways, the near absence of any takeaways, and the 13 times Matt Cassel (1,058 yds., 5 TD, 7 INT, 58% comp.) has been sacked, the Chiefs are a pretty good football team on paper. Saying that about an NFL team is like saying, “Mrs. Kennedy, except for the mess your husband’s wound made in the limousine, you have to admit that it was a pleasant ride.”

4

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NFL Preview 2012 – AFC

Opinions are like armpits; everyone has them and most of them eventually stink. After devoting extra attention to the Dallas Cowboys in yesterday’s NFC preview to emphasize the state of flux I thought the team was in, they moved my opinion into the armpit category with a convincing win over the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants.

If at first you don’t succeed, dust yourself off and try again. I whiffed a little on the NFC, just one contest into the season. But my AFC slate is clean thus far! Here’s to do-overs! Teams are listed by division in order of expected finish.


AFC NORTH

Baltimore Ravens – This is going to be a tough division with three tough teams, all with the potential to reach the playoffs. The Ravens came up three points, a dropped touchdown pass and a missed 32 yard field goal short of a chance to go to the Super Bowl.

Expect the same formula by Head Coach John Harbaugh with the benefit of an additional year of experience. The defense, led by ageless middle linebacker Ray Lewis, will be smothering. The offense will ground and pound the ball with running back Ray Rice. And quarterback Joe Flacco will do what it takes to give the team a chance to win. How much they have improved will depend on their execution in the playoffs.


Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers may have a few tender spots exposed with the retirement of wide receiver Hines Ward, some again in the secondary, and a few question marks in the running game. As long as Ben Roethlisberger remains healthy, though, the Steel Curtain is going to drop on the enemy more often than flop beneath their feet.


Cincinnati Bengals – This team has not strung together consecutive playoff appearances in 30 years. I expect 2012 to be no different. I do expect second year quarterback Andy Dalton to build upon his rookie year success and have the Bengals competitive in nearly all of their games. I expect the Bengals to finish 8-8 or better barring a rash of injuries. I simply think that “AFC Playoffs Town” isn’t big enough to accommodate Cincinnati in a very competitive AFC field.


Cleveland Browns – Like I said, there are three tough teams in the AFC North. The Browns aren’t one of them. Rookie running back Trent Richardson and 28 year old rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden should fasten their seatbelts for a very bumpy ride in contrast to the smooth sailing they experienced at their top ten college programs (Alabama and Oklahoma State, respectively).

Ray Lewis: "I'm not getting older; I'm getting better!" 1

AFC SOUTH

Houston Texans – The Texans are the trendy, sexy pick in the AFC with good reason. First, barring a smattering of injuries across the board, they should coast to the AFC South championship. The division is just not that tough this year. Second they advanced to the second round of the playoffs in spite of losing All Pro wide receiver Andre Johnson for most of the season due to injury, Matt Schaub for the season (late in the season) due to a freak foot injury, and then backup QB Matt Leinart, who apparently fell off of the bench following Schaub’s injury (lost for the season the week after Schaub’s injury).

The Texans managed to win the South and beat the Bengals in the Wild Card round of the AFC Playoffs under a rookie, third string quarterback in T.J. Yates. The prevailing thought, with which I agree, is if the Texans made such strides with a “next man up” personnel mantra, how far can they go with nearly all of the key players returning and everyone (on a young team) with a year more of experience?


Tennessee Titans – I don’t expect the Titans to reach the playoffs, but this team has had a knack for pulling its talent together and overachieving. Second year quarterback Jake Locker was handed the keys to the Titans’ safe this season over veteran Matt Hasselbeck. I can only imagine that Locker made strides in the offseason as Hasselbeck had an injured and gutted Titans offense keeping the team alive in the playoff race much later in the season than expected. I expect the Titans to be a tough out, but an out nonetheless against the better teams in the AFC.


Indianapolis Colts – This team is a long way from returning to glory, but between the expectations and what little I have seen of rookie quarterback Andrew Luck, I expect them to be a long way from being on the draft clock at the end of the season, too. This team has too many holes to make any real run at the postseason, no matter how well Luck performs. The running game is mediocre, the receiving core is just okay, and the defense was laughable last season. There are only so many new bodies the Colts could have brought in during the offseason to turn the Swiss Cheese D around in one year.


Jacksonville Jaguars – You can never judge the long term prospects of a quarterback based solely on his rookie year. That said, second year QB Blaine Gabbert did not show the world very much in his rookie year. His play was awful. The receiving corps us a collection of relative unknowns. The offensive line is unremarkable. And the new owner, Shad Khan, has ruffled the feathers of their best player, running back Maurice Jones-Drew. This feels like a real life version of the movie Major League in which the owner sabotaged the team so it would tank and could justify moving. How does the ring of “Los Angeles Jaguars” sound?

Luck: the Colts are going to need it. 2

AFC East

New England Patriots – This is a team that typically does not rebuild; it reloads. After the protracted holdout of wide receiver Wes Welker and the loss of running back Benjarvus Green-Ellis, the Patriots set out to defend their AFC Championship and win their first Super Bowl in the post-Spygate era. The one constant that the Patriots can count on, assuming he is healthy, is quarterback Tom Brady. He will keep the Patriots in every game. The question is the defense and if it will hold water or be a leaky sieve like it was last season.


New York Jets – Just because I think the Jets will finish second in the division does not mean that I am confident that they will be good. The defense will be good. The offense could sink the team into the abyss.

Quarterback Mark Sanchez is not an elite NFL quarterback, He is a signal caller who can make plays when given the opportunity. Bringing in the biggest rock star backup QB in the history of pro football in Tim Tebow, failing to staff any quality receiving talent other than Santonio Holmes at wide receiver, and lacking any running backs whose names we would know if this team did not play in New York is not giving Sanchez any fair opportunity.


Buffalo Bills – You know this team has very little to look forward to when the wooing and acquiring of a defensive end, Mario Williams, with $50 million in guaranteed money is headline sports news for two weeks during the offseason. Buffalo has enough talent to beat the inferior teams and periodically sucker punch a superior opponent. Expect Williams to be flying back home, down south, for the winter with the geese.


Miami Dolphins – Hard Knocks is over and so are the Dolphins' 15 minutes in 2012. I will go as far to say that the Dolphins are on the clock.

Here you go, ladies: Tom Terrific 3

AFC West

Denver Broncos – This team managed to advance to the second round of the playoffs with the statistical equivalent of Clint Eastwood’s empty chair at quarterback last season. The sky is the limit with future Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning at the controls, assuming he stays healthy.


San Diego Chargers – The Chargers will put points on the board and pressure on every opponent every week because they have quarterback Philip Rivers and Head Coach Norv Turner. This team will not sniff the second round of the playoffs because they have Head Coach Norv Turner.


Oakland Raiders – This team will be competitive within its division. The defense and and quarterback are great unknowns. First year Head Coach Dennis Allen was the defensive backs coach of the 2009 New Orleans Saints, a team with a secondary that helped the team lead the NFL in takeaways and scoring defense. Should some of that translate into this year’s Raiders defense, perhaps the Silver and Black can make the Broncos and Chargers sweat.


Kansas City Chiefs – Romeo Crennel seems like a nice guy and a bright defensive mind. How is it that he has the misfortune of getting the booby prizes of coaching opportunities? His first NFL head coaching gig was in Cleveland and, miraculously guided the team to its best regular season record in 13 years, going 10-6 in 2007. Not so miraculously (one might say “expectedly” considering the fortune of Cleveland sports teams), the Browns 10-6 record, good enough to get teams to the playoffs 90% of the time (give or take), was in the unfortunate 10% that missed the postseason.

Crennel is getting a second shot after stopping a Chiefs free fall in 2011. I am just not convinced that he has the quarterback in Matt Cassel or the personnel to be successful quickly enough in today’s “What have you done for me lately?” NFL coaching landscape.

Peyton Manning: He is back! 4

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