NFL Quarterback Rankings 2014

It is that time of year again. Football is here! Last year, just before the beginning of the preseason, the Hat Trick ranked the starting quarterbacks from all 32 NFL teams.

This year, it comes a little later. Several teams did not decide their starting quarterbacks until after the conclusion of the preseason. There are 10 starting NFL quarterback who were not starters heading into training camp in 2013 Today, the Hat Trick will toss in its two cents for the 2014 season. Better late than never...!

Are you ready for some football?

Top Tier

1) Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos - Last year's preseason rank: 2 (difference = +1)

Welcome back to the top of the mountain, Peyton Manning. Manning demolished records as he led the Broncos roughshod over the AFC on the way to Super Bowl XLVIII. This year, the Broncos are expected by many, myself included, to repeat as AFC Champions. John Fox is a good coach, but the expectations are a Mile High because of the future Hall of Famer.


2) Tom Brady, New England Patriots - Last year's preseason rank: 3 (difference = +1)

I wrestled over whether or not to put Brady in the top spot. He did more with less last year than any quarterback in recent memory. However, Manning's (far from eroded) physical skills, the results of their AFC Championship Game meeting, and expectations for 2014 for both Manning and his team (compared to Brady and the Patriots) give Manning just a tick over Tom Terrific. My fanhood may tip the scales ever so slightly, too!


3) Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers - Last year's preseason rank: 1 (difference = -2)

If I were starting a franchise today, I would draft Aaron Rodgers first. His dip from #1 to #3 is more of a reflection on the superhuman performances of his two outranking elders last year than any fault of A-Rodg. The absence of recent playoff progress is not boosting his ranking, either. Still, this guy has everything: feet and footwork, arm strength, quick decision making ability, and the "it factor".


4) Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints - Last year's preseason rank: 4 (difference = 0)

Several years ago, a Falcons fan said (in a chain email including me and a number of Louisianians) that he thought Drew Brees was the most accurate passer in NFL history. At the time, I thought he was in Rome and doing as the Romans. Now, I think he was swallowing his Dirty Bird pride and admitting what he was observing. If you cut me, I bleed Black & Gold, but I can also take off my black and gold colored shades. Brees would be well atop Mount Hat Trick were it not for his tendency to commit the few turnovers he commits at the most painful and costly times for the Saints.


5) Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts - Last year's preseason rank: 14 (difference = +9)

This guy is a superstar. Leading his team back from the second-largest deficit in NFL history in the first round of last year's playoffs against the Kansas City Chiefs illustrated a microcosm of his potential. Luck, like Tom Brady, also did a lot with a little, especially after his primary receiver, Reggie Wayne, went down with a knee injury at mid-season. The offensive line was average. His receiving corps was average. The defense in place to take pressure off of Luck and the offense was mediocre at best and the special teams (sans Adam Vinatieri) often looked confused. It won't get much better this year, but Luck will always give the Colts a chance to win.

Manning has the best chance of any of the elite quarterbacks to return to the Super Bowl. 1 

Tier 2

6) Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers - Last year's preseason rank: 6 (difference = 0)

Big Ben can makes plays and keep the Steelers in any game at any time. Judging by the roster, he will need to do just that. The defense is long-in-the-tooth and the offensive teammates surrounding Roethlisberger are average. Expect a win-loss records not consistent with his QB ranking of #6. Expect Roethlisberger to pump the Steelers into the .500 neighborhood in spite of lacking .500 talent.


7) Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons - Last year's preseason rank: 7 (difference = 0)

Last season was an aberration for the Falcons and hence Ryan's performance. With healthy receivers and the first unit defense back in place, expect the Falcons to remain competitive through the end of the season. Matty Ice can flat out ball when he is in a rhythm and help his team outscore any opponent. They'll need it. The Falcons' defense is as intimidating as vanilla ice cream.


8) Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers - Last year's preseason rank: 9 (difference = +1)

It is simple. When Rivers is not making mistakes the Chargers' air attack is very hard to stop. He has already sucker punched the Legion of Boom from Seattle. Rivers has proven he can solve Denver's defense. Rivers is a QB who can lift up the players around him and for that reason, his team can never be overlooked in any week.


9) Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks - Last year's preseason rank: 16 (difference = +7)

Winning a Super Bowl has that effect on a QB's Hat Trick ranking. To borrow a line from the 1988 classic, "Coming To America", THE BOY GOOD! Wilson is one of the smartest quarterbacks in the league. What he lacks in stature and arm strength, he compensates for with the old gray matter and his ability to extend plays with his feet.

I think of Russell Wilson as Tom Brady with quick feet. Wilson is the prototype of a new wave of quarterbacks that will dominate the league in the coming decades. Super Bowl XLVIII was just the beginning.


10) Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys - Last year's preseason rank: 10 (difference = 0)

The Cowbys are going to suck this year. They will suck less because of Romo. Romo is not in the elite tier of QB's but he is a playmaker who keeps drives alive and games alive in spite of the people around him and in spite of the playcalling.

The magnified late turnover keeps Romo down. But I think that the eye of the average fan often misses the fact that said turnover would not be in a position to be costly were it not for Romo keeping his team alive longer than is often deserves to be.


11) Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears - Last year's preseason rank: 11 (difference = 0 )

Yeah, yeah...he is kind of a jerk. It's getting old. Cutler is a physical specimen with a rocket for an arm and good intestinal fortitude. He makes plays that lesser quarterback cannot. I've observed Cutler's maturity since joining the Bears and he appears, to my untrained eye, to have evolved, over the past two seasons, into the kind of teammate a teammate would want to have.

Don't hate the player; hate the game.


12) Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers - Last year's preseason rank: 17 (difference = +5)

♪ "He's the man; he's the man; he's the ma-an!" ♫

Any doubts I had about Kaepernick going into a sophomore slump were erased last season. Kap is on his way to becoming an elite NFL QB in the coming years. At the moment, I think of him as a poor man's Russell Wilson. Slightly more physically gifted...prone to occasional games in which one wonders where his head is. Still, the 49ers will be a Super Bowl contender every year a healthy Kaepernick is under center.

Steelers fans are going to witness the value of Ben Roethlisberger during a season they may likely want to forget. 2 

Tier 3

13) Eli Manning, New York Giants - Last year's preseason rank: 5 (difference = -8)

Eli Manning was able to help his team win because he could compensate for his physical deficiencies with the players around him. The pieces around him are not the same as when the Giants were winning Super Bowls and it shows. It has significantly affected his decision making. Eli and the G-men may be in for some lean years until the roster is rebuilt and gains experience.

14) Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers - Last year's preseason rank: 18 (difference = +4)

Newton is on the cusp of breaking into the ranks of the "top two" tier quarterbacks. Newton can not only make plays with his legs, but run opponents over in the process. At the same time, he has demonstrated the ability to stretch the field. Seasoning and experience could give him a chance to evolve into a very special player.


15) Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens - Last year's preseason rank: 8  (difference = -7)

Considering that the Super Bowl XLVII champions were completely dismantled on the defensive side of the ball prior to the 2013 season, I thought Flacco held it together. Still, Flacco was exposed as more of an advanced game manager than a play maker.

Putting the right players around Flacco will give him an opportunity to win games every week, including the big game - the Super Bowl. But at this point in his career, it is clear to this blogger that he cannot put a team on his back and carry it deep into the postseason like a Tom Brady or Peyton Manning type.


16) Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals - Last year's preseason rank: 12 (difference = -4)

With the talent around him, all Dalton has to do is not put his team in harm's way during the postseason to contend for a Super Bowl. Dalton has flashes of excellence. But his team does not need him to be excellent, just competent. The sooner he realizes this, the sooner he can grow into a QB approaching excellence.


17) Matt Stafford, Detroit Lions - Last year's preseason rank: 13 (difference = -4)

Stafford is a tough QB to read. Without a doubt he has the physical tools - size, arm strength, toughness. Six years into his NFL career, I am still undecided as to whether or not Stafford has "it" and can rise to the level of one of the star signal callers in the NFL. For another year, I have to reserve judgment.


18) Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals - Last year's preseason rank: 26 (difference = +8)

Arizona was the perfect fit for Palmer and as a result, he has shown that he can give a good NFL team a chance to contend for the playoffs.

19) Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs - Last year's preseason rank: 19 (difference = 0)

Alex Smith will not lose games for his team. If everyone else (including the Head Coach) does what they are supposed to do, he can help make sure his team wins the games. Guys like Smith don't make it into the Hall of Fame, but they play for a long time and, every now and then, they get their squads to the Super Bowl.

20) Nick Foles, Philadelphia Eagles - Last year's preseason rank: none


Foles came on strong for the Eagles last season and played a big part in getting them to the playoffs. Still, the information on Foles' ability to perform is limited. I need to see a solid sophomore season before moving him up the Hat Trick ranks.

Gravity is real. 3

Tier 4


21) Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins - Last year's preseason rank: 24 (difference =+3)

I was on the fence regarding whether or not to place Tannehill into Tier 3 or Tier 4. Tannehill can make that choice easy for me in 2015 - one way or another.


22) Robert Griffin, III, Washington Redskins - Last year's preseason rank: 15 (difference = -7 )

I have crystal stemware that doesn't break as easily.


23) Geno Smith, New York Jets - Last year's preseason rank: none

This guy could have a long, above-average career or be a fly-by-night QB on the bench by the time his rookie contract expires. Either way, a Rex Ryan team is not the place to maximize his potential. Regardless, young Smith has to play the cards he was dealt. Having veteran Mike Vick as his backup and possible mentor could aid in his development. But in his second season, there are more "unknowns" than "knowns" surrounding Smith.


24) Brian Hoyer, Cleveland Browns - Last year's preseason rank: none

Someone told Brian Hoyer he could be a legitimate starting NFL quarterback. Someone told him he could outperform first round draft pick and 2012 Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel and keep him on the bench during his rookie year. Apparently, Hoyer believed it.

Because the Browns lack the offensive skill position players Hoyer needs around him to make the Browns into a serious playoff contender, I think that it is only a matter of time before Hoyer yields the starting job to Johnny Football. Still, Hoyer has shown that he can add value to an NFL roster and has greatly helped increase his expected career longevity.


25) Jake Locker, Tennessee Titans - Last year's preseason rank: 27 (difference = +2)

He'll win some games by default but he'll be on someone's bench next season.

Perhaps Tannehill would be more motivated if he didn't already have the hot wife. 4

Tier 5


26) Ryan Fitzpatrick, Houston Texans - Last year's preseason rank: none

He clearly went to Harvard. He has outsmarted the entire Texans' coaching staff into letting him start.

27) Matt Cassel, Minnesota Vikings - Last year's preseason rank: none

T-minus x-number of weeks before the Teddy Bridgewater era begins in Minnesota. In fact, it may have already started. Cassel's 15-minutes will be up and long overdue after the 2014 season.

28) Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders - Last year's preseason rank: none

Carr might not be a bust like his brother (first pick in the 2002 NFL Draft) David. But, like David, he is on the worst possible team to cut his NFL teeth.

29) E.J. Manuel, Buffalo Bills - Last year's preseason rank: none

In my opinion, Manuel should have been more of a developmental project than a high first round pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. He may be on his way out of Buffalo after just his second season. That is what happens to teams that overreach at the most important position n the field.

Just because he went to "Haaaaaaah-vard" doesn't mean he can think the Texans to victory. 5

Toilet Tier

30) Josh McCown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Last year's preseason rank: none

It's nice that McCown parlayed his fill-in duties with the Bears into a starting job. Now you see why he is a career backup.

31) Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars - Last year's preseason rank: none

I cannot think of a worse place for an NFL rookie QB to try to have an impact. Still, he's a better option than (former Jags starter) Chad Henne.

32) Austin Davis, St. Louis Rams - Last year's preseason rank: none

Who the hell is this guy?

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Retweet of the Day - December 4, 2012

Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin, III? Who is the better rookie QB. Both have been very impressive and both have exceeded expectations for their rookie campaigns. I personally thought Robert Griffin, III was a shoe-in for Rookie of the Year and I still think he will win the award when the Associated Press writers take a moment to look at the total bodies of work.

Still, Andrew Luck's team is winning more games, with several wins in dramatic fashion. That will always garner media attention. It's human nature. This past Sunday may have been the most dramatic chapter in Luck's rookie year. The colts rallied from more than two scores down at the Detroit Lions and won with a touchdown pass from Luck to Donnie Avery on 4th down and 10 on the final play of the game.

Today's retweet is from an ESPN personality with whom I almost always vigorously disagree and may never, ever quote agin. But facts are facts and his tweet illustrates my point. It's is from (holding my nose) Skip Bayless (@RealSkipBayless). It has been retweeted over 500 times, thus far, so I am not alone in agreeing with him.

"Luck now has 21 turnovers (16 INTs, 5 lost fumbles) to only 6 for RG3. Sunday, Luck hit only 48% of passes and for season only 55%."

Even a broken clock is right twice per day. Skip Bayless?

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NFL Preview 2012 – AFC

Opinions are like armpits; everyone has them and most of them eventually stink. After devoting extra attention to the Dallas Cowboys in yesterday’s NFC preview to emphasize the state of flux I thought the team was in, they moved my opinion into the armpit category with a convincing win over the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants.

If at first you don’t succeed, dust yourself off and try again. I whiffed a little on the NFC, just one contest into the season. But my AFC slate is clean thus far! Here’s to do-overs! Teams are listed by division in order of expected finish.


AFC NORTH

Baltimore Ravens – This is going to be a tough division with three tough teams, all with the potential to reach the playoffs. The Ravens came up three points, a dropped touchdown pass and a missed 32 yard field goal short of a chance to go to the Super Bowl.

Expect the same formula by Head Coach John Harbaugh with the benefit of an additional year of experience. The defense, led by ageless middle linebacker Ray Lewis, will be smothering. The offense will ground and pound the ball with running back Ray Rice. And quarterback Joe Flacco will do what it takes to give the team a chance to win. How much they have improved will depend on their execution in the playoffs.


Pittsburgh Steelers – The Steelers may have a few tender spots exposed with the retirement of wide receiver Hines Ward, some again in the secondary, and a few question marks in the running game. As long as Ben Roethlisberger remains healthy, though, the Steel Curtain is going to drop on the enemy more often than flop beneath their feet.


Cincinnati Bengals – This team has not strung together consecutive playoff appearances in 30 years. I expect 2012 to be no different. I do expect second year quarterback Andy Dalton to build upon his rookie year success and have the Bengals competitive in nearly all of their games. I expect the Bengals to finish 8-8 or better barring a rash of injuries. I simply think that “AFC Playoffs Town” isn’t big enough to accommodate Cincinnati in a very competitive AFC field.


Cleveland Browns – Like I said, there are three tough teams in the AFC North. The Browns aren’t one of them. Rookie running back Trent Richardson and 28 year old rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden should fasten their seatbelts for a very bumpy ride in contrast to the smooth sailing they experienced at their top ten college programs (Alabama and Oklahoma State, respectively).

Ray Lewis: "I'm not getting older; I'm getting better!" 1

AFC SOUTH

Houston Texans – The Texans are the trendy, sexy pick in the AFC with good reason. First, barring a smattering of injuries across the board, they should coast to the AFC South championship. The division is just not that tough this year. Second they advanced to the second round of the playoffs in spite of losing All Pro wide receiver Andre Johnson for most of the season due to injury, Matt Schaub for the season (late in the season) due to a freak foot injury, and then backup QB Matt Leinart, who apparently fell off of the bench following Schaub’s injury (lost for the season the week after Schaub’s injury).

The Texans managed to win the South and beat the Bengals in the Wild Card round of the AFC Playoffs under a rookie, third string quarterback in T.J. Yates. The prevailing thought, with which I agree, is if the Texans made such strides with a “next man up” personnel mantra, how far can they go with nearly all of the key players returning and everyone (on a young team) with a year more of experience?


Tennessee Titans – I don’t expect the Titans to reach the playoffs, but this team has had a knack for pulling its talent together and overachieving. Second year quarterback Jake Locker was handed the keys to the Titans’ safe this season over veteran Matt Hasselbeck. I can only imagine that Locker made strides in the offseason as Hasselbeck had an injured and gutted Titans offense keeping the team alive in the playoff race much later in the season than expected. I expect the Titans to be a tough out, but an out nonetheless against the better teams in the AFC.


Indianapolis Colts – This team is a long way from returning to glory, but between the expectations and what little I have seen of rookie quarterback Andrew Luck, I expect them to be a long way from being on the draft clock at the end of the season, too. This team has too many holes to make any real run at the postseason, no matter how well Luck performs. The running game is mediocre, the receiving core is just okay, and the defense was laughable last season. There are only so many new bodies the Colts could have brought in during the offseason to turn the Swiss Cheese D around in one year.


Jacksonville Jaguars – You can never judge the long term prospects of a quarterback based solely on his rookie year. That said, second year QB Blaine Gabbert did not show the world very much in his rookie year. His play was awful. The receiving corps us a collection of relative unknowns. The offensive line is unremarkable. And the new owner, Shad Khan, has ruffled the feathers of their best player, running back Maurice Jones-Drew. This feels like a real life version of the movie Major League in which the owner sabotaged the team so it would tank and could justify moving. How does the ring of “Los Angeles Jaguars” sound?

Luck: the Colts are going to need it. 2

AFC East

New England Patriots – This is a team that typically does not rebuild; it reloads. After the protracted holdout of wide receiver Wes Welker and the loss of running back Benjarvus Green-Ellis, the Patriots set out to defend their AFC Championship and win their first Super Bowl in the post-Spygate era. The one constant that the Patriots can count on, assuming he is healthy, is quarterback Tom Brady. He will keep the Patriots in every game. The question is the defense and if it will hold water or be a leaky sieve like it was last season.


New York Jets – Just because I think the Jets will finish second in the division does not mean that I am confident that they will be good. The defense will be good. The offense could sink the team into the abyss.

Quarterback Mark Sanchez is not an elite NFL quarterback, He is a signal caller who can make plays when given the opportunity. Bringing in the biggest rock star backup QB in the history of pro football in Tim Tebow, failing to staff any quality receiving talent other than Santonio Holmes at wide receiver, and lacking any running backs whose names we would know if this team did not play in New York is not giving Sanchez any fair opportunity.


Buffalo Bills – You know this team has very little to look forward to when the wooing and acquiring of a defensive end, Mario Williams, with $50 million in guaranteed money is headline sports news for two weeks during the offseason. Buffalo has enough talent to beat the inferior teams and periodically sucker punch a superior opponent. Expect Williams to be flying back home, down south, for the winter with the geese.


Miami Dolphins – Hard Knocks is over and so are the Dolphins' 15 minutes in 2012. I will go as far to say that the Dolphins are on the clock.

Here you go, ladies: Tom Terrific 3

AFC West

Denver Broncos – This team managed to advance to the second round of the playoffs with the statistical equivalent of Clint Eastwood’s empty chair at quarterback last season. The sky is the limit with future Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning at the controls, assuming he stays healthy.


San Diego Chargers – The Chargers will put points on the board and pressure on every opponent every week because they have quarterback Philip Rivers and Head Coach Norv Turner. This team will not sniff the second round of the playoffs because they have Head Coach Norv Turner.


Oakland Raiders – This team will be competitive within its division. The defense and and quarterback are great unknowns. First year Head Coach Dennis Allen was the defensive backs coach of the 2009 New Orleans Saints, a team with a secondary that helped the team lead the NFL in takeaways and scoring defense. Should some of that translate into this year’s Raiders defense, perhaps the Silver and Black can make the Broncos and Chargers sweat.


Kansas City Chiefs – Romeo Crennel seems like a nice guy and a bright defensive mind. How is it that he has the misfortune of getting the booby prizes of coaching opportunities? His first NFL head coaching gig was in Cleveland and, miraculously guided the team to its best regular season record in 13 years, going 10-6 in 2007. Not so miraculously (one might say “expectedly” considering the fortune of Cleveland sports teams), the Browns 10-6 record, good enough to get teams to the playoffs 90% of the time (give or take), was in the unfortunate 10% that missed the postseason.

Crennel is getting a second shot after stopping a Chiefs free fall in 2011. I am just not convinced that he has the quarterback in Matt Cassel or the personnel to be successful quickly enough in today’s “What have you done for me lately?” NFL coaching landscape.

Peyton Manning: He is back! 4

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Lucky Andrew

Andrew Luck has looked unusually poised for a rookie in his two preseason games In spite of some stumbling blocks last night, his command of the huddle and reads in the pocket look like those of a quarterback who has already endured his rookie hard knocks.

Luck, to the surprise of many, remained at Stanford University for his senior year. His girlfriend, Nicole Pechanec, was a gymnast at Stanford at the same time. An additional reason for Luck to stay for his final year? I think so!

Ms. Pechanec (right) looks great without clothes, too! 3

She's well balanced, too!

Yes, Andrew got the most out of his college experience. 5

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2012 NFL Draft Speculations

Tonight is the first round of the NFL draft. There is often drama, excitement, and some surprises. There will be no surprises in the first two picks. The Indianapolis Colts are selecting quarterback Andrew Luck from Stanford and the Washington Redskins will select Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin, III. After that, it is anyone’s guess.

1

THRILL OF THE THIRD PICK

I have heard nothing but pure speculation on the fate of the third pick in tonight’s draft, currently owned by the Minnesota Vikings. Will the Vikings keep the pick? Will they trade down? Who will eventually acquire the pick if they trade down? If they keep the pick, who will they select? If the Vikings trade the pick, who will be selected? Will Trent Richardson (RB – Alabama) go third? Will it be Ryan Tannehill (QB – Texas A&M)? Will the draft for position need and pick Matt Kalil (OT – USC)?

Never before can I recall a third pick in the draft with so much variability of the eventual outcome (team selecting and player selected). Trent Richardson, by most accounts I have heard, is the most coveted player available with the third pick. Tannehill is the best quarterback available for selection with the third pick. Minnesota already has a hot prospect at quarterback in Christian Ponder and a perennial All-Pro at running back in Adrian Peterson.

The Vikings have the third pick in the draft for a reason: they were very bad last year. A stud offensive tackle, like Kalil, would help the Vikings, but they need players (plural)! It is possible Kalil may be available a few spots down. I am not a general manager, nor do I play one on television, but if I were the Vikings GM, I would trade down for additional bodies.

Tannehill's fiance, Lauren Ufer. And...Tannehill is expected to land in MIAMI!?!? Watch your back, Ryan! 5

I NEED SOME MO!

Morris “Mo” Claiborne (CB – LSU) could end up in a variety of places. I am biased because, as those of you who read regularly know, I graduated from LSU. It has been speculated that Claiborne could go as high as third. I would love to see that happen. I’m not counting on it.

Claiborne has freakish physical skills, superior ball instincts, and incredibly sticky hands for a defender. I expect him to be a star in his rookie year. The hurdle to Claiborne going third is that the Vikings hold the pick. A star cornerback would fit the Vikings’ needs, but they have glaring needs all over the field. “Mo players” is “mo better” for the Vikes, which is why I don’t see them picking Mo third.

The next two teams in the draft are the Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Claiborne would be a welcome addition to both rosters, but I doubt that either team would make a sacrifice to trade up for him. I would be stunned to see Claiborne go lower than seventh. His equation has a lot of rapidly moving parts.

If you throw once against Mo, you won't throw "no mo'"! 3

WHO NEEDS A RUNNING BACK?

If I had a quarter for every time, in the last week, that I heard that Alabama running back Trent Richardson is the best overall player available (after Luck and Griffin), I would have free lunch today. But the key is need. There is a ton of talent at the top of this draft.

The Vikings, Buccaneers, St. Louis Rams, Jacksonville Jaguars, Carolina Panthers, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, and Seattle Seahawks (holders of the number 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, and 12 picks, respectively) appear to have decided upon their starting running back positions. The Miami Dolphins, holding the 8th pick, are badly in need of a quarterback. In essence, if the Browns do not pick Richardson with the fourth selection and no one trades up to jump ahead of the Dolphins to pick Tannehill, Richardson, the man viewed by many as the best player available with the third selection, could fall completely out of the top 10!

I think this is unlikely. Need can often be the worst evaluator of talent. It can cause the most rational of coaches and GMs to artificially inflate or deflate the value of a prospect. Even if the Browns pass on Richardson to address another need, Richardson simply offers too much value to be allowed to fall through the cracks. A savvy team could easily pick him and trade down, after the fact, to a team with pressing needs at running back.

Break a leg, Trent (wish he did in January...before Bama beat the hell out of LSU)! 2

STOCK COULD RISE…STOCK COULD FALL

Michael Brockers (DT – LSU) has been projected to go in the 15th-25th range in the first round, from most of the reports I have read. He is another freakish physical specimen. I have also read the words “sleeper” and “biggest surprise” when describing his upside. When players receive that kind of buzz, particularly when it is shortly before the draft, it is not uncommon for them to be selected significantly higher than projected.

Brandon Weeden (QB – Oklahoma State) has demonstrated that he can perform in a pass oriented offense. There are three concerns I have that make me question whether Weeden will go in the first round at all (he has been widely projected to be a late first round pick).

First, Weeden is 28 years old. While maturity is a requisite at the QB position and Weeden’s age (and track record) lend to that, he will not have as long of an NFL career as most quarterbacks can have. He will also be under tremendous pressure to perform immediately. He cannot just blossom in his third, fourth, or fifth year like many quarterbacks because he will be in his thirties by then.

Second, Weeden played in the Big XII, a conference in which playing tough defense is more of a suggestion or a guideline than an actual expectation. Fair or not, a coach or GM may discount some of the video game like numbers he put up at times.

Third, while I don’t anticipate it happening, I have heard a lot of speculation that the Dolphins may pass on Tannehill, stick with Matt Moore at QB in 2012, and pick a player at another position with less risk. Should that happen, Weeden, who all but certainly will be picked after Tannehill, might be waiting until Friday before he can tell his real estate agent where to look.

One Oklahoma State student's eye candy is Brandon Weeden's jail bait! 4

CAN’T WAIT!

Regardless of who goes where and what happens, I expect to be entertained tonight. The draft is always full of drama and, frankly, I always learn something new about football, the teams, and the personnel every year. In the words of Bart Scott:

CAN'T WAIT!



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Ten Product Endorsements You MAY see in 2011

Yesterday, The Daily Hat Trick covered ten product endorsements that you will never see. With the new year upon us, I retrieved my crystal ball and looked into the future in the year 2011. There is a good chance we may see the following right alongside beer, fast food, soft drink, and truck commercials.


10) Greg McElroy for Haterade

Traditionally, conference members tend to support one another in interconference matchups, particularly in college football bowl games. After all, when a member of your conference wins against a member of another conference, your conference is better positioned in the future for rankings, at-large bowl invitations, or (in other sports) tournament seeding. University of Alabama quarterback Greg McElroy, prior to the Tostidos BCS National Championship Game, make it clear he wanted to see Oregon, of the Pac-10 conference, beat fellow Southeastern Conference member and in-state arch rival Auburn.

The secret to McElroy's success 1

Being an LSU man, myself, I sympathize with McElroy’s frustration of watching a rival school be in position to claim the prize that all football teams covet and strive for during the season. But, news flash, Greg: you are not there! All SEC schools benefit in the future by an SEC team bringing the ADT Trophy home for a fifth consecutive season (Florida, LSU, Florida, Alabama, Auburn). Don’t hate the player; hate the game!


9) The New Orleans Saints for the Heimlich maneuver

When a team chokes this badly, it needs to be promoting this life-saving first aid maneuver. The defending Super Bowl Champions, with an 11-5 record, had to travel to 7-9 Seattle for the opening round of the playoffs because of the NFL playoff structure. The Saints were a 10 ½ point favorite, making the Seahawks the biggest home underdog in NFL playoffs history. Drew Brees and the offense did their jobs, putting 36 points on the board in the cold on the road. The defense? It could not stop a runny nose, let alone Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch. Lynch put the nail in the Saints’ coffin with a multiple tackle breaking run so impressive that we are sure to still see the highlight in trailers for playoff broadcasts 5, 10, or even 15 years from now.

The Saints 2011 schedule could be printed with this background. 2 

8) Jim Caldwell for Timex

Indianapolis Colts Coach Jim Caldwell, during a playoff game with the New York Jets, decided that he would call timeouts late in the game because wanted the Jets to snap the ball as much as possible before attempting what would be a game winning field goal. The Jets were in position to rest the hopes of their season upon a 50+ yard field goal attempt by Nick Folk, a low percentage play, but, at the time the Jets’ best chance. Obliging Coach Caldwell, the Jets did continue to snap the ball. As they snapped it, they moved the ball closer and closer to the red zone and Folk was able to attempt a much more manageable kick from under 40 yards and eliminate the Colts from the playoffs.

With clock management like this, Coach Caldwell should have as much exposure to timepieces as possible.

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7) Aaron Rodgers for the NEW Zoo of Brown County (in Green Bay, Wisconsin)

Rodgers and the Packers earned an impressive victory over the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field this past Sunday. If I had a quarter for every time I heard about Rodgers “getting a monkey off of his back” I could have a really nice lunch today. Personally, I think the notion that Rodgers, in his third season as a starter, playing in only his second playoff game (he threw for over 400 yards in his first playoff game in an overtime loss), had any monkey to get off of his back is ridiculous. But since the label has stuck, his agent should take advantage and work it into a zoo endorsement for A-Rodg with some kind of “monkey” catch phrase.

Aaron Rodgers Green Bay Packers 2010 End Zone Bobble Head

Sure to be a best seller at the gift shop. 5

6) Andrew Luck for charity…any charity

Stanford junior quarterback Andrew Luck had been blessed with God given football talents in concert with hard work and a gifted coach in Jim Harbaugh. By all mainstream media accounts, Luck would be the first pick in the 2011 NFL draft…IF he were not going back to Stanford for his senior year. Luck said he wanted to complete his degree in architectural design and enjoy one last year of the college experience, which he cannot get back.

Being a Stanford student, I am sure Andrew Luck is well read. He should add this to his reading list. 6

Regardless of what happens with the NFL’s collective bargaining agreement in 2011, Luck would likely guarantee himself earnings of no less than $20 million as a QB being picked first in the draft, more than he could earn in 20 years in an occupation related to his major. Anyone so willing to give away future earnings is a perfect spokesperson for charity. I am confident that Auburn defensive tackle Nick Fairley or whomever occupies the #1 overall spot in Luck’s place, will be very grateful for Luck’s charity.


5) Tramon Williams Tackling Dummies

Sports equipment is big business. Endorsement opportunities are often about striking while the iron is hot. Green Bay Packers defensive back Tramon Williams intercepted a Mike Vick pass in the end zone in the closing moments of Sunday’s first round playoff game, sealing the win for the Packers. Williams made the catch, hit the ground, got up, and skipped out of the end zone in a celebratory manner, holding the ball like a loaf of bread.

Gives a new meaning to "get down". 4

So what? Williams was never touched while he was on the ground and the officials never blew the play dead, meaning Williams was skipping around while loosely holding a live ball. Williams’ defensive teammates immediately recognized the potential peril and pounced on Williams like a family of bears on fresh honey. There are so many “take it from a dummy” angles that marketing people could use from this incident that it would be a waste for Williams not to cash in on the near miscue.


4) FIFA for winter swimwear

FIFA, the international soccer organizing body that oversees the World Cup, is tinkering with the possibility of playing the 2022 World Cup in winter instead of summer, according to USA Today. So…let’s see. A game played in shorts and short sleeved jerseys, competitively requiring as little clothing as necessary on the participants, is going to move its signature event to a time of year in which kids may go outside and build a snowman after the game is over? REALLY? If FIFA can pull that one off, their executives should be consulted by department stores everywhere for strategies to quickly sell out of season garments.

Just because it looks good does not make it a good idea. 7

3) Derek Anderson for The Funny Bone Comedy Club

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Derek Anderson was seen cracking a smile while speaking with a teammate during a loss to the 49ers on Monday Night Football on November 30, 2010. After being repeatedly being pressed about the sideline laughter in the face of a very lopsided defeat, Anderson erupted into a tirade about not laughing and nothing being funny about the loss. One may have thought, momentarily, that if Anderson were a sheriff in the Old West, he may have shot violators on sight for the crime of “laughter”.

The Best of Comedy Central Presents: Uncensored

Anderson’s anti-laughter tirade is one of the funniest sports moments that I witnessed in 2010. I am going to go out on a limb and guess that when he is not fuming over a bad loss, Anderson has some sense of humor. If so, some type of laugh oriented product endorsement is in order for him.

Why tell you when I can show you? (source: You Tube)

2) Herman Edwards for AT&T

Herman Edwards gave sports fans of the world a priceless sound bite while coach of the New York Jets. Following a loss, Edwards said to reporters, “HELLOOOOO! You PLAY to WIN the games!” While the “play to win the games” portion of the quote has lived on in sports media lore, the opening “HELLO” was as impressive. And in what situation do Americans often use the word “hello”? On the telephone, of course! AT&T: sign that man up!

"HELLO!" (source: You Tube)

1) The Cecil Newton Athletic Scholarship Fund

Anybody capable of raising $180,000 under the table for an amateur athlete to attend a university could work wonders in legitimate fundraising. Whenever life give you lemons, make lemonade!


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