Chicken Little Tigers

And the annual ritual is underway, again. It's happening earlier than normal this year, but it is happening right on schedule.

The LSU Tigers under Les Miles have suffered their first loss of the season. Like most years, that first loss has come to an underdog opponent; they are usually favored most weeks. Unlike most years, the Tigers dropped one at home to a visiting underdog opponent. And unlike any year in this century, they were slapped around the building by visiting underdog opponent Mississippi.


THE SKY IS FALLING

And here we go. The Golden Age of LSU Football is coming to and end! LSU is going to go winless in SEC play! Everyone knew this would happen when Nick Saban left (almost 10 years ago)! It's time to finally FIRE LES MILES TONIGHT!!!

"What? You think I haven't heard it all before?" 1

WHAT HAPPENED

Slow down, Chicken Little Tiger fans! The sky is not falling. What happened is that LSU lost by six points to Mississippi State University, 35-29, for the first time since 1999 and for the first time at home since 1991.

What happened is that LSU's game plan ignored the strength of MSU's defensive front seven while ignoring the Bulldogs' relative weakness in the secondary and failing to adjust. What happened was that the Tigers were completely unprepared for the dynamic playmaking potential of MSU quarterback Dak Prescott. What happened is that LSU Head Coach Les Miles earned an "F-" for preparing his team to play its SEC opener last Saturday.

Nobody saw MSU QB Dak Prescott, right, coming. 2

WHAT DIDN'T HAPPEN

Les Miles did not forget how to coach football; his local critics likely think he never could in the first place, but I'll let his win-loss record over nine years speak for itself. LSU was not overrated at #8, going into last Saturday's game; the team was just three weeks removed from erasing a 17 point deficit at a neutral site to beat a ranked Wisconsin team. And while LSU had some of its shortcomings exposed, it didn't lose to a hapless SEC opponent.


WHY DID IT HAPPEN

Last Saturday had factors that combined for the perfect storm for LSU to suffer a loss to an underdog opponent. LSU is a team that is not set up to beat its opponents with passing. Starting sophomore QB Anthony Jennings of LSU is not a good passer. He, generally, appears comfortable managing the LSU offense and handing the essential duties of a quarterback in that offense.

LSU has an embarrassment of riches in its backfield. Between the (unreasonable) Heisman expectations of freshman RB Leonard Fournette to the power and experience of senior Kenny Hilliard to Terrence McGee and the rest of the Clydesdale horses lined up behind Jennings, this offense is capable of overwhelming opponents with sheer brute force.

LSU has a young but incredibly athletic and opportunistic defense. Its front seven can smother an opponent's running backs. The defensive backs are as quick and opportunistic as any in the SEC. So why did LSU lose?

Failing to prepare is preparing to fail. Regional and national pundits often commented on the rapid development of the MSU program under Coach Dan Mullen. Dak Prescott was (unrealistically) whispered as a dark horse Heisman Trophy candidate and (reasonably) expected to have a breakout season. The Bulldogs' front seven was regarded by many SEC media pundits as possibly the best in the SEC. This is not "your daddy's" Mississippi State team.

Les Miles game planned as though none of those Bulldogs improvements took place between last season and this season. Miles stubbornly tried to run the ball down the Bulldogs' throat and when that was not effective, they ran the ball some more. Instead of taking advantage of what appeared to be a porous MSU secondary, Miles and Offensive Coordinator Cam Cameron insisted that LSU's strength could better MSU's strength. In addition, while I'm not sure if Dak Prescott expected Dak Prescott to have the spectacular breakout performance he had, the Tigers appeared to be completely flat footed and unable to adjust to him until LSU was in a 24-point hole late in the game.

Mississippi State students (especially Prescott, in the middle of the swarm of cheerleaders) make a rare trip back from Baton Rouge with a reason to smile. 3

SILVER LINING

Chin up, Tigers fans. In spite of what can only be described as an uninspired embarrassment and butt-whooping at the hands of MSU, the fact is that LSU has the ball in Bulldogs' territory on the final play of the game with a change, albeit a slim one, to win the game. Freshman backup quarterback Brandon Harris came off of the bench and, with his rocket arm, almost led the Tigers to three rapid-fire touchdowns in the final minutes of the game. It would have been one of the most miraculous comebacks in the history of college football. What was evident was Harris' enormous potential.

If "if" were a fifth we could stay drunk all day. LSU did not win. It was completely out-coached, out-manned, and out-physicaled by a Mississippi State team that came to Baton Rouge focused with a plan an three and two-thirds quarters of pristine execution of that plan. The better team won on Saturday. However, Mississippi State looked its absolute best and LSU looked its absolute worst. A savage beating at the hands of a conference rival can force a team to look hard at itself, humble itself, and make tough adjustments. Based on the prior nine years under Les Miles, there is no reason to expect those corrections not to happen.

Brandon Harris, right, provided LSU a spark with the speed of a bolt of lightning in the 4th quarter. 4

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1) Image from www.al.com
2) Image from www.espn1420.com
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On the Same Collision Course

Last year, it became clear that the LSU Tigers and the Alabama Crimson Tide were on a collision course to decide which team would win the Southeastern Conference and play in the 2012 BCS National Championship Game. Conventional wisdom dictated that this would have been decided in the "Game of the Century" between unbeaten Alabama and unbeaten LSU in Tuscaloosa last November. At the end of four quarters, the score was tied.

LSU would go on to beat Alabama in Alabama in overtime, 9-6, but speculation about the not-so-decisive outcome and demand for a rematch in the BCS Championship Game began the next day. LSU would go on to have a perfect regular season, with the SEC West division, win the SEC Championship Game over the Georgia Bulldogs in the Georgia Dome, and play in the BCS National Championship Game. Bama would win its remaining regular season games and finish second in the SEC West.

Alabama would get to rest during the week of the SEC Championship Game because it failed to win its division, (meaning they would have, at best, the third best finish in the SEC, with Georgia being the runner up). Still, Bama would be handed a spot in the BCS Championship Game, to the delight of Bama fans and television networks, over a the other five Automatic Qualifying conference champions, including a one-loss Oklahoma State team from the Big XII. Alabama would go on to win its 13th game of the season, finishing 12-1. The Crimson Tide won the National Championship by beating the Southeastern Conference Champion LSU Tigers, who would finish the season 13-1.

Life is not fair and neither was Bama's invitation to last season's BCS Championship Game. They'll take it! 3

THAT WAS LAST YEAR
    
One could call the BCS Championship Game "sour grapes" for LSU. One could also describe the fact that LSU is the defending division and conference champion as "sweet lemons". Either way this is a new season and the expectations are sky high for both teams. Both teams lost some talent due to expired eligibility, the National Football League, and (in the case of LSU's 2011 Heisman Trophy finalist Tyrann Mathieu) disciplinary issues. I would dare say that neither team is as good as last year, but, except perhaps the Trojans of the University of Southern California, both teams are far ahead of the rest of the FBS field.

On Saturday, LSU dismantled mid-major Sunbelt conference opponent North Texas in Tiger Stadium, 41-14, racking up 508 yards of offense in the process, including 141 yards and two touchdowns from sophomore fullback Kenny Hilliard. Very impressive....

Kenny Hilliard was really mean to the Mean Green on Saturday. 1

Alabama, ranked #2 in the Associated Press, faced off against the AP 8th ranked Michigan Wolverines, winning 41-14 at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas, a neutral site. Alabama delivered a knockout in the first quarter, leading 21-0, much like Mike Tyson would deliver first round knockouts to his opponents when he was in his prime. Bama racked up over 400 yards of offense against the top ten ranked Big Ten front runner. Much more impressive....

Bama LB Nico Johnson to Michigan QB Denard "Shoelace" Robinson: "Move, b____, get out the way!" 2 

HERE WE GO AGAIN

The Tide will probably leap AP #1 ranked USC (who dismantled the Hawaii Warriors of the Mountain West Conference, 49-10) to the number one spot in the polls on Tuesday morning. But it makes no difference. The real test for both Alabama and AP ranked #3 LSU (#1 in the USA Today poll) will come when the two teams face off against one another. That will take place in Baton Rouge this time, on November 3rd. Barring let down from USC, the SEC tale should be decided on that day. Last year, there was no strong conference winner outside the SEC, opening the door for Bama in the BCS Championship Game.

This year, I would be surprised if USC were not in the top two after all of the conference championships are decided. Even if Southern Cal somehow failed to win the Pac-12 or somehow racked up multiple losses, expectations are high for Ohio State, Michigan, Oklahoma, Oregon, and Florida State to be in the chase for a BCS Championship berth. The loser in this game, no matter how close (or unfair) is not going to get a "do-over" and an opportunity to get the big prize with a season split.

College football is back. It looks like, once again, the SEC is king. Many of you know that I am an LSU grad, and so I say to Alabama, "BRING IT ON!!!"

Heisman candidate and USC QB Matt Barkley had his way with Hawaii on Saturday. Expect them to factor into the final BCS picture. 4

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1, 4) Images from www.zimbio.com
2, 3) Images from www.washingtonpost.com

Roll Tide!

Alabama played 13 games this season. LSU played 14 games this season. Alabama lost one game this season, at home, to LSU. LSU lost one game this season, at a neutral site, to Alabama.

LSU is the reigning Southeastern Conference West Division champion. Alabama is the reigning SEC West Division runner up. LSU is the 2011 SEC Champion. The Georgia Bulldogs are the SEC runner up. Alabama did not participate in the SEC Championship Game. LSU had a superior conference record to Alabama. Therefore, Alabama did not earn a chance to prove they were the best SEC team.

The best of the SEC 1

PLAYOFFS?

College football does not have a playoff system. It does have the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) system. The BCS system includes the champions of six conferences, the SEC, Big Ten, Big XII, Pac-12, ACC, and Big East, as automatic qualifiers in the five BCS Bowl games (the Rose, Orange, Sugar, and Fiesta Bowls and the BCS Championship Game). The remaining four teams in the BCS games are chosen as at-large participants by the through the four BCS bowl committees and the BCS system, decided by human polls and the BCS computer system.

College football does not have a playoff system. Congratulations to the 12-1 second place team in the SEC West, winners of their 13th game of the season, the BCS Championship Game, against the 13-1 SEC Champion LSU Tigers, playing in their 14th game of this season. A true champion has been crowned!!!

Second best winning percentage of the SEC teams and BCS champions. Who needs playoffs? 2

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1) Image from www.secfanatics.com 
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To Be Settled in New Orleans???

The Game of the Century has come and gone. Come and gone without a touchdown…. Come and gone without a winner at the end of the fourth quarter. LSU won 9-6 at Alabama on Saturday night, retaining their #1 BCS ranking, on the strength of winning the coin toss in overtime and an Alabama penalty that pushed the Tide into a low percentage field goal range. LSU had the better score. Did they prove to the nation that they were the better team? 

THAT TRICKY OLD BCS POLL

The BCS and Associated Press rankings were released today. Only LSU and Oklahoma State are ranked ahead of Alabama in the BCS poll. Bama is #4, behind Stanford, in the AP poll. Oklahoma State has a December 3^rd date with former #1 Oklahoma. Without the benefit of a conference championship game, Oklahoma would not likely have the opportunity to jump Bama (should the Tide win its remaining games), in spite of being the Big XII champion.

The BCS Championship Game is played at the end of the FBS schedule between the #1 and #2 teams in the BCS poll. While structured to be substantially favorable to conference champions, the rules are not set in stone that the participants need to be conference champs.

In 2003, for example, the Oklahoma Sooners were so strong (and unbeaten) in the regular season that they effectively mailed in their Big XII Championship matchup with Kansas State, knowing they would retain their #1 ranking and play for the BCS Championship. While the BCS formula has since given more preference to conference champions, there is no rule precluding a non conference winner from playing for the crystal football. There is no rule precluding two teams from the same conference from vying for the big prize.

Kansas State: 2003 Big XII champions; Big XII runner-up Oklahoma: 2003 BCS finalist 1

WHY WE HAVEN’T SEEN ENOUGH YET

LSU and Alabama played 60 minutes of football and were tied, 6-6. Prior to 1996, this game would have ended in a tie. Under NCAA FBS overtime rules, each team gets a possession starting at the 25 yard line. The team with the higher score after both teams have had a possession wins. If tied, the process repeats.

Football is a game played on a 120 yard field, with 100 yards in between the goal lines. The overtime rules reduce the set of skills, to determine the outcome of a game, to (essentially) red zone offense and defense. The punting game, return game, and downfield passing game, among other aspects, are completely removed from overtime in college football. What can your team do on a short field? The answer determines the winner.

Rules are rules and LSU won by the rules, fair and square. But the rules under which both teams had to play, after regulation, snipped away 75% of the skills involved in the game of football by snipping away 75% of the field of play. Did America REALLY find out who the best team was on Saturday?

Why shouldn't these kids get another chance to experience this kind of joy? 2

SEC, SEC, SEC!!!

Of college football’s Automatic Qualifier (major) conferences for the Bowl Championship Series, few would argue that the Southeastern Conference is the strongest conference in college football today. Arguments to the contrary lack any substantive evidence. George W. Bush was less than a year into his second term and current Alabama coach Nick Saban was a rookie Head Coach in the NFL the last time a school from outside the SEC won the BCS Championship, following the 2005 regular season.

What is arguable is whether or not a one loss SEC team should trump a one loss team from another conference in the BCS race. Past history has dictated so, provided the one loss SEC team was the conference champion. However, it is difficult for me to ignore the mental asterisk next to Alabama’s lone loss. Tied after four quarters…facing the undefeated #1 team in the country…never allowed LSU into the end zone. Should Stanford and Oklahoma State lose at some point this season, no other BCS conference school with one loss could make such a claim.

The last five BCS champions wore one of these helmets. 3

DIVISION CHAMPIONSHIP-LESS

The immediate argument that an opponent of an all-SEC BCS title game would propose, understandably, is that a team that cannot win its own division does not deserve to be crowned king of the college football world. I would agree with that, without question, in any set of circumstances besides the once-per-generation circumstances that arose from Saturday’s game. A #1 team vs. a #2 team with no winner after regulation play from the best conference in college football….

I do not think a team with one loss, even an overtime loss, should leapfrog an unbeaten champion of a power conference. However, it is not a farfetched possibility for the other five (or possibly all six) major conferences to lack an unbeaten. Considering the razor-thin nature of Alabama’s one loss and the stature of Bama’s opponent and conference, a debate over whether Alabama is the best of the one-loss teams, conference champions or not, is a viable one.

Georgia Head Coach Mark Richt made a similar plea in 2007, but with less ammunition than a one-loss Bama team would have this year. 4

PLAYED ON THE FIELD, DECIDED BY COMPUTERS

All of the arguments for or against Bama playing LSU for a rematch (assuming LSU remains unbeaten) will be silenced by the BCS. Does a conference runner up deserve a run at its conference champion for the national championship? Some can look at Bama’s loss on Saturday and ask, “Why?” I look at the circumstances surrounding this college football season and ask, “Why not?”

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1) Image from columbiamissourian.com

2) Image from boston.com

3) Image from wordofsouth.com

4) Image from blogs.ajc.com

Collision Course

The Tigers of Louisiana State University and the Alabama Crimson Tide are long time rivals, with decades of history, in the Southeastern Conference. To date, both teams are undefeated in the 2011 college football season. As of this week, LSU is ranked #1 in the Associated Press poll; Alabama is #2.

LSU and Bama meet on November 5th in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. This could legitimately be billed the game of this young century should both teams remain undefeated. The survivor of this collision will be the odds on favorite to win the BCS National Championship.


THE MAD HATTER

LSU Head Football Coach Les Miles has become a favorite topic among national pundits. His unorthodox methods of winning games and unusual habits, such as chewing grass, and the manner in which he rests his hat on his head have distinguished Miles among his peers in college football. The Daily Hat Trick has compared Miles' to eccentric but savvy Disney character Captain Jack Sparrow from the Pirates of the Caribbean movies. For all of Miles’ oddities and eccentricities, he has assembled one of the most talented groups of football players in the century-plus history of the LSU football program.

LSU’s defense has absolutely smothered its opponents this season. In spite of having faced three ranked opponents away from Tiger Stadium, LSU has allowed fewer than 13 points per game this season and a nearly invisible 2 yards per opponent’s rushing attempt. While trying to run the ball against the Tigers is a bad idea, attempting to stop the Tigers from running has been futile.

LSU averages 173 rushing yards and close to three rushing touchdowns per game. Their three headed monster of Spencer Ware (323 yards, 4.0 avg., 3 TDs), Michael Ford (322 yards, 5.3 avg., 6 TDs), and Alfred Blue (148 yards, 4.4 avg., 3 TDs) have been unsolvable and unstoppable. Even if one man can be slowed down, another can be brought into the game with a fresh pair of legs to further batter the opponent.


Captain Hatter? 1

 RISING TIDE

In five years as LSU Head Football Coach, current Alabama coach Nick Saban brought LSU’s football program to the ranks of the elite by delivering a BCS National Championship following the 2003 season and leaving the program as a perennial Top 10 team and SEC championship contender. Since becoming the Head Coach at Alabama, Saban has returned the Tide to its historically elite status by delivering a championship following the 2009 season. Saban’s shadow looms large over the pending matchup.

Alabama is fueled by a defense equally capable of forcing an opponent to succumb to offensive asphyxiation as LSU. Bama allows 1.5 yards per carry and just over 8 points per game, best in the nation. Bama has only allowed a single rushing touchdown all season. Last week, in the blowout win over Florida, the Tide held Gators’ senior running back Chris Rainey, who still averages 5.6 yards per carry this season, to an invisible 4 yards on 11 carries.

Bama has its own steamroller in the backfield in the form of junior running back Trent Richardson (622 yards, 6.5 avg., 10 TDs). Richardson has been the workhorse in an Alabama backfield that has completely pounded its opponents for 230 rushing yards per game. When your opponent cannot run and cannot stop the run, you are all but invincible if you do not make any colossal mistakes.

Good luck stopping Trent Richardson. These four guys couldn't. 2

HEAD ON COLLISION

The stakes are often high when LSU and Alabama meet, but possibly never as high as they may be on November 5th. Assuming both teams are still undefeated (which is never a guarantee in the SEC), the SEC Western Division championship will hang in the balance, and likely the SEC Championship as a whole.

Regardless of any shuffling that may take place between LSU, Alabama, and #3 Oklahoma in the next month, the winner of this game will all but certainly have the #1 ranking in the following week. And with a #1 ranking and the inside track on the SEC championship, comes the inside track for the BCS National Championship. LSU and Alabama are on a winner-takes-all collision course.

Part V: To be decided in Tuscaloosa! 3

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1) Image compiled from multiple sources, cited in the The Daily Hat Trick on 10/8/2010.
2) Image from bleacherreport.com
3) Image from al.com

Three Up! Three Down!

Through three weeks, the LSU Tigers are undefeated. LSU has beaten two ranked opponents, one in the top ten, and was successful in its first Southeastern Conference contest against Mississippi State in Starkville, Mississippi.


YOU’D BETTER RECOGNIZE

LSU has not suffered from a deficit of deserved attention from the national sports media in quite some time. Still, while many recognized how good this team is, LSU may have flown slightly under the radar in preseason, with SEC West rival Alabama and first week opponent Oregon occupying a higher rank.

The Tigers grabbed the nation’s attention by beating last year’s BCS Championship runner up at a neutral site in Dallas, Texas in a 40-27 thrashing. After turning rent-a-win opponent Northwestern (Louisiana) State into compost feed last Saturday, LSU turned its attention to its first SEC opponent of the 2011 season, the Mississippi State Bulldogs, in a nationally televised contest.

The Bulldogs are not the “same old” MSU team that in-conference opponents would look forward to when in need of a win. State Head Coach Dan Mullen has quickly turned the program around and must be taken seriously every week. ESPN flashed a statistic, during its broadcast, that LSU and MSU had met over 100 times in their histories, but last night’s contest was the first time #3 LSU and #25 Mississippi State had both been ranked at the time of their meeting.

The last time Mississippi State beat LSU, Josh Booty (above) was the quarterback. Josh Booty...that name gave me a shiver! 2

SHUTDOWN DEFENSE

What was the same was the result. Mississippi State has not beaten LSU since 1999 and that did not change, as LSU won its 12th consecutive contest with State, 19-6. MSU contained LSU’s offense and gave up very few big plays. As a result, they were very much in the game, late in the game.

The score was 6-6 with two minutes remaining in the third quarter. The Bulldogs defense played itself into a position to have a chance in the fourth quarter. The problem, for the Bulldogs, is that LSU pulled every plank from under MSU’s offensive attack.

The Bulldogs averaged 321 rushing yards per game prior to last night’s contest. Last night, MSU was held to a paltry 1.5 yards per carry, for a total of 52 total rushing yards. MSU running back Vick Ballard, who ran for 130 yards or more in each of his previous games, was held to 38 yards rushing, only carrying the ball 10 times. The smothering job the LSU defense demonstrated against Oregon was taken to a higher level against Mississippi State.

I wonder if there is a waiting list for the cold tub after last night. 3

ROAD TO THE BCS

Only one conference game into the season, it is far too early for the team to have much focus on the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta after the regular season, let alone bowl season. That has not stopped reporters and LSU fans from voicing their opinions. The consensus, from my vantage point, is that if Jarrett Lee can be efficient and not make the big mistake (he did that at a high level last night) and the defense stays healthy, this is a championship caliber team.

College football is played one week at a time. LSU, thus far, has passed all three of its tests with flying colors. The winner of the SEC, and the likely participant in the BCS Championship Game, will probably be determined on November 5th in Tuscaloosa when LSU travels to play Alabama and former LSU coach Nick Saban. Until then, all we can do is speculate on where this LSU team is going. My speculation is a lofty expectation and so, far, LSU is meeting the challenge.

Wide receiver Rueben Randle is helping Jarrett Lee transition to the starting QB role. After last night (6 rec., 98 yards, 1 TD), I think he helped Lee find a much larger comfort zone. 1

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1) Image from espn.com
2) Image from bleacherreport.com
3) Image from nola.com

My Two S-E-Cents

1



Saturday afternoon was anything but ordinary in the Southeastern Conference. Defending National Champion and top ranked Alabama had an exceptionally long winning streak, and a number of derivative winning streaks, snapped in a loss on the road to 19th ranked South Carolina. Auburn held off an upstart Kentucky team. And, you may have heard, LSU pulled of a ho hum victory over Florida in The Swamp...in the final 10 seconds...after a fake field goal on fourth down with no timeouts left. Yeah....



"Hey y'all. Watch this!"

2

How does this change the balance of power in the SEC? Maybe it does; maybe it does not. I personally, am of the opinion that Alabama still has the best team in the SEC. However, championships are decided by wins and losses, not talent and potential. After this past Saturday, LSU and Auburn are unbeaten in Southeastern Conference play. South Carolina, LSU, and Auburn have all joined Alabama in the Associated Press Top 10.



This sets up a number of potential collision courses that may decide the SEC champion. The biggest matchup may be in two weeks when, LSU travels to Auburn. Depending upon the outcome of the Arkansas at Auburn matchup next week. The matchup between LSU and Alabama in Baton Rouge could be of the greatest importance and a de facto SEC West Championship game should LSU win. On the other hand, an Auburn victory could effectively make the Iron Bowl in Auburn, the annual matchup between Auburn and Alabama, decider of who represents the Western Division in Atlanta in December for the SEC Championship Game.

One thing is certain. Before the South Carolina Gamecocks' upset win over Alabama, the SEC would be decided through Alabama. Anyone hoping to claim the SEC prize would eventually have to contend with the Tide. With the Alabama loss, the order in the SEC world has been completely shaken up. The conference is up for anyone to grab and some teams even have some room for error, particularly against a weaker opponent. It should be a wild ride, down the stretch, in the second half of the SEC schedule. 

I wonder if they drew straws at halftime to see who had
 to stand closest to him when they took the field in the second half.

1) Image from wordpress.com
2) Image from lsusports.net
3) Image from rolltide.com