Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics - April 16, 2014

The NBA Playoffs start this weekend. With the marathon run to the NBA Championship set to begin, you can expect to be fed a healthy dose of basketball statistics. The team that does this first can expect to win. A team without a player who can do that has never advanced past the second round. Etcetera, etcetera….

The Daily Hat Trick has a couple of factoids you can toss out over a frosty beverage while checking out the playoff action with friends, family and coworkers. Get ready to wow the guys with your vault of useless trivia. It’s, “Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics”!

THE MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES HAVE PLAYERS IN THE NBA’S TOP 5 IN SCORING, ASSISTS, REBOUNDS, AND STEALS

As star-driven as the sport of basketball is, as much as a single player can elevate an entire team, it is mind-blowing that a team can have top five league leaders in four of the five major individual performance statistics (points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks) and not only be in 10^th place in its conference and out of the playoffs, but no even have a winning record. That is the position that the Minnesota Timberwolves find themselves in (again). It begs the question: are Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio wasting their talents in the Twin Cities?

Wolves big man and three time All-Star Kevin Love averages 26 points per game and 13 rebounds per game, fourth and third in the NBA, respectively. Point guard Ricky Rubio dishes out nine dimes per game and steals the ball 2.3 times on a typical evening, placing him fifth and second, respectively in those categories. With players who are so good, how can the Wolves be so consistently bad?

Part of the T-Wolves’ misfortune is being in the talent-superior Western Conference in a division loaded with All-Star talent. The Northwest division is home to Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook of the Oklahoma City Thunder, a perennial front runner for the Western Conference championship. Also in the division are the Portland Trailblazers with 2013 Rookie of the Year Damian Lillard and All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge. Their regular season schedule is simply weighted to play more of the league’s better teams.

The other problem is that the Timberwolves have a mediocre to below average supporting cast around their two stars. In spite of being in the NBA Draft Lottery year-after-year, the Wolves have not parleyed their higher picks into higher talent. The 2014 version of the Wolves is an undersized front court (Love notwithstanding) with players who can shoot but intimidate nobody defensively.

The 2015 season may be Love’s last dance in Minnesota, with the seventh year of his contract approaching. Love will be an unrestricted free agent after next season. The odds of Love staying in place shrink with each loss.

Lakers, Knicks... get ready to start your bidding! 1

MICHAEL JORDAN'S BEST STATISTICAL SEASON DID NOT EARN HIM THE MVP, OR ANYTHING ELSE

We know the narrative on MJ: 14-time All-Star, six NBA titles, five-time MVP, first ballot Hall of Famer…I would wager he is the consensus greatest basketball player of all time; he has my vote. I can only imagine that those of you who are basketball fans but not stat geeks would assume that in the best measurable year of the career of arguably the greatest player ever would have earned him the award for the Most Valuable Player for that season.

However, anyone not digging inside the numbers might regard the 1989 NBA season as a footnote in the career of Michael Jordan. He didn’t win the MVP. His team, the Chicago Bulls, did not win anything of note – They didn’t even win the Eastern Conference; in fact, they were next-to-last in the Central Division. Mike’s success was not even enjoyed vicariously by his Head Coach, Doug Collins. Collins was fired after the season.

While the path of Jordan’s career would trend sharply upward very quickly with the Bulls’ promotion of Phil Jackson to Head Coach the next season and winning his first NBA Championship ring in the year after, Jordan’s box scores never peaked more than during the valley that was the Bulls’ 1989 season. Jordan averaged 33 points, 8 rebounds, and 8 assists per game from the shooting guard position that year.  He also played over 40 minutes per night and averaged a tick under 3 steals and a blocked shot per game while shooting 55% from the field and 85% from the line, at or close to career highs.

For casual fans who only care about wins, losses, and what they seen on the highlight reels, those…stats…are...ridiculous! Kevin Durant of the Oklahoma City Thunder has a stat line is similar but, across the board, slightly lesser that the aforementioned MJ stat line from 1989 and he is all but certain to win the 2014 MVP award. 

It would make for great barber shop conversation about the modern NBA versus the "golden years" of the 80s and 90s. How much more physical the play was back then.... How much more intense the competition was among the star players.... By the way, the winner of the MVP in 1989? Some Johnny come lately named Earvin "Magic" Johnson (23 PPG, 13 APG, 8 RPG, 91% FT - led the NBA).

He had to...taste...defeat a few more times before reaching basketball's summit. 2

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Retweet of the Day - April 10, 2013

Boston Celtics point guard Rajon Rondo has not played one minute of basketball since January, when he suffered a season ending knee injury. The Celtics have managed to keep their heads above water and remain in the playoff race in Rondo's absence. Still, he is arguably the team's best player.

How good is he? When you have not played ball in months and lead the NBA in anything positive, you are pretty good, as illustrated in today's retweet, from ESPN Stats & Info (‏@ESPNStatsInfo):

"Rajon Rondo hasnt played since January 25. He still leads the NBA in triple doubles with 5."

Celtics Fan has good cause to look forward to the cliche "next year".

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Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics – NBA – March 5, 2013

LeBron James, last month, pulled off an NBA record six consecutive games played with at least 30 points scored and a 60% field goal percentage. What I found as interesting was that the two players that shared the record prior to James breaking it were Hall of Famers Adrian Dantley and Moses Malone. While both were great players, there have been many more prolific scorers in the history of the NBA. For that reason, I thought it was time for another installment of Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics.

The King has given the Heat Cheerleaders plenty of cause for action (cheering) this season. 4

Kobe Bryant leads the NBA in minutes played this season.

Following the Lakers’ elimination from the playoffs last season, the sports world was abuzz with speculation about how much more the 34 year old Bryant (27 PPG, 6 APG, 6 RPG) had in the tank. Bryant has played 2,289 minutes this season (as of this morning), averaging over 38 minutes per game. His per game averages this season for points, assists, rebounds, and minutes are above his career averages. I think the Black Mamba has a lot of venom left in him.

WWWS: What would Weezy say to, "Who is the NBA iron man this year?"

Ryan Anderson is currently second in the NBA in three point shots made.

The New Orleans Hornets gave the 2012 NBA Most Improved Player a lucrative contract paying him over $8 million per year this past off season in the hopes of getting the extra push to win the types of close games that the team lost last year.  Unfortunately, nagging injuries to their two best players, Anthony Davis (13 PPG, 8 RPG, 2 BlkPG) and Eric Gordon (17 PPG) (resulting in over 60 games missed between the two of them this year) derailed any effort the Bees had at a playoff run in 2013.

This statistic sneaked up on me and it should not have because I am a Hornets fan. I knew Anderson (17 PPG, 6 RPG) was a consistent and potent three point threat, but I would have never guessed he was second only to sharp shooting star Stephen Curry (22 PPG, 7 APG, 4 RPG, 2 StlPG) of the Golden State Warriors. Anderson is shooting 40% from behind the arc this season with 172 three point shots made.

Anderson (right) is second to Curry (left) in 3-point shots made in 2013. 1

Greivis Vasquez leads the NBA in total assists this season.

It may appear that I am getting my homer on with two entries about the New Orleans Hornets, a team in last place in the Southwest Division that is all but certain to have a lottery pick in the coming offseason. However, you cannot tell me that either of these two Bee-related statistical phenomena are not surprising. Vasquez (14 PPG, 9 APG, 5 RPG) is a guard who is not a household name among NBA fans, but is going to command a nice offer in free agency after next season. NBA scouts are taking notice of his rapid continued improvement since entering the NBA.

Vasquez has dished out 572 dimes for the Pelicans-in-waiting this year. Chris Paul of the Los Angeles Clippers is second with almost 100 fewer assists at 476. Vasquez is third in the NBA in assists per game behind Rajon Rondo of the Boston Celtics, who is out for the season with a knee injury, and Paul, the Hornets’ former franchise player.

Vasquez: "Take notes, CP3!" 2

Omer Asik currently leads the NBA in total rebounds.

Asik (10 PPG, 12 RPG) made headlines last summer when the Houston Rockets rolled the dice on the former Chicago Bulls reserve center and offered him a $25 million contract, more than quadrupling his annual salary. Asik  is more than doubling his career per game production for points and rebounds. Much speculation was made about how much impact this relatively unknown Turkish import, who had averaged less than 15 minutes per game for his career, could make.

Asik has grabbed 709 boards this season and is third in the NBA in total rebounds per game behind Dwight Howard of the Los Angeles Lakers and Zach Randolph of the Memphis Grizzlies.

Asik pitches in on offense, too. 3

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The 20 Coolest Smartphone Apps in College Sports

If you are reading this blog, you are probably on the Internet. But if you are on the Internet, I cannot predict how you are accessing it. You could be on a PC, a laptop, a tablet, or a smartphone. The later is exploding is market penetration for the purposes of Internet access.

With college football in full swing, I thought you readers could benefit from the following, submitted by Claudia Frederick of The Best Colleges. Another way to enhance your experience as a sports fan with your smartphone.... The original piece can be found at the blog at http://www.thebestcolleges.org.

The 20 Coolest Smartphone Apps in College Sports

You say you want sports, and you want them now? Then navigate thine iPhone, Android phone, Windows phone, or Blackberry to your app market and start downloading. No matter where you go, you’ll never be more than an arm’s length away from news, scores, highlight reels, talk, and more regarding your favorite college sports teams. These are our picks for the coolest cats of the bunch.

1. Tablegaters:

   For those times when you can’t be at the stadium to tailgate, you can still meet up with fellow alums to eat, drink, and cheer on your team. No matter where you go, you never have to miss another tablegate thanks to this app and its “Find Your Fans” feature.
   

2. ScoreMobile:

   Also freely available on Android, iPhones, and Windows phones, ScoreMobile is a consistent college sports fan favorite. If you’re busy, set the app to text you when someone scores, when a quarter ends, or just at key moments in the game. It also sports immediately updated stats, betting odds, league leaders, and more.
   

3. Sporting News NCAA Basketball:

   ESPN may be the news leader, but Sporting News trumps them when it comes to apps. For all your men’s college hoops scores, videos, and news, including the ability to customize your feed to news from your favorite teams and conferences, this app’s where it’s at.
   

4. College Baseball Tracker:

   Use your Android text-to-speech functionality to turn a college baseball gamecast into a live play-by-play audio broadcast with this cool app. If you’re more concerned with what’s going on across the conference, set the app to a league scoreboard and receive notifications when a game you’re interested in starts, ends, or changes score.
   

5. NCAA Football by EA Sports:

   Play music from your iTunes library while you lead your alma mater to victory with this popular video game-cum-mobile app. Go head-to-head with a friend via Bluetooth or tackle the computer in season mode on your way to the BCS title game.
   

6. Yahoo! Sportacular Pro:

   Most fans of college sports also follow the pros, which is why Sportacular is so cool. When you’ve caught up on NCAA football or basketball updates, you can switch over to NASCAR results, the LGPA leader board, LA Liga soccer standings, and basically everything else.
   

7. College SuperFans:

   The CSF app adds some fun features to the scoreboard app like the ability to share scores to Facebook and Twitter without leaving the app, and previews of upcoming games. Track up to 10 of your favorite teams at a time, and find scores from across the conference while viewing your teams.
   

8. SEC Football Breaking News:

   Originally made for coaches and sports journalists, die-hard fans of the best league in NCAA football can use this killer app to find updated injury reports, recruiting news, videos, and game previews. No sports fan in the Southeast should be caught dead without it.
   

9. Kentucky Sports Radio:

   If their 2012 men’s basketball championship has you on the fan bandwagon, you’ll want to download this app. It connects you with Kentucky sports radio podcasts and posts that you can share with your friends, and lets you join the conversation with other UK fans.
   

10. Hudl:

    College coaches already know about Hudl, the web service that allows them to upload and view game video from their own teams and from opponents. Now they can view “tape” on their smartphones from the bus thanks to this great app. If you’re a superfan, set up an account and check it out.
    

11. iScore Baseball Scorekeeper:

    With this app, your iPhone becomes a scorecard for tracking every play your favorite college baseball or softball team makes. Track hit locations with the batting spray chart and pitch locations with the pitch tracker, and Twittercast the plays to your followers who couldn’t make it out to the ballpark.
    

12. Team Stream:

    Sports blog Bleacher Report brings you this app that allows you to pick your favorite sports team and follow everything that happens to it. You’ll also get easy access to the entertaining articles posted on the blog, from “15 Sports Couples Both Past Their Prime” to “40 Guys Caught Staring at Cheerleaders.”
    

13. College Football Scoreboard:

    For up-to-the-minute D1 football news, scores, and highlight videos, this app is a no-brainer. It’s easy to use, has a smooth interface, and gets great update support from the developers. If you’ll be working or studying on Saturdays come September, you’ll want to have this app in your pocket.
    

14. Jack’s Rosters:

    Assuming its 10-year-old creator is not too busy with homework to update it for 2012, this app is your go-to source for every team roster in Division I football. And don’t worry about trying to get a signal to connect inside a stadium crammed with 80,000 other football fans: once the app downloads, all the rosters are there.
    

15. College Designs and Fight Songs:

    Show your school spirit on your phone by downloading this app that connects you with live wallpapers of your team’s logo and the school fight song for your ringtone. Users say if your alma mater isn’t listed, drop the designers a line and they’ll have it added quickly.
    

16. Sports Eye – NCAA:

    The coolest feature of this app is the ability to follow the Facebook and Twitter feeds of some of the best or most promising players in college basketball, like Jared Sullinger, Adonis Thomas, and Shabazz Muhammad, all in one place. There’s also score updates, news alerts, and the ability to customize posts from your favorite college hoops blogs.
    

17. PlayUp: The

    tagline for this free app is “Where Sports Get Social.” College and pro teams are using the app more and more to reach their fans via the new medium of mobile apps. Sign into Facebook and join public conversations about your team, or start private ones with friends, plus get live scores and stats for thousands of games in a variety of sports.
    

18. ESPN Bowl Bound 2011:

    ESPN cracks our top 20 with this offering that keeps you up to speed on the college football teams headed for bowl glory. Experts Brad Edwards and Mark Schlabach bring you their weekly predictions in the Bowl Central feature. You can also track the race to the big awards like the Heisman, and view all the tweets pertinent to your favorite team.
    

19. Football Radio:

    Don’t knock radio; you’ll be glad to have this app when the power goes out during the game. Delivering hundreds of radio broadcasts of both college and pro football games across the country, Football Radio includes a game schedule so you’ll never miss a down. You can let it run in the background on your phone while you text or surf the web.
    

20. CFStats:

    Stats junkies, listen up. This is your best option for viewing stats for college football teams, conferences, and individual players going all the way back to 2003. Win/loss records, passing and rushing numbers, even video highlights are all here. And the coolest part of all is it’s free!
    

Lies Damned Lies and Statistics – MLB – July 20, 2012

The pennant races are getting really hot. With two additional Wild Card teams being invited to the playoffs this season, there are very few teams already looking ahead to next year. There are some players on teams that will be involved in some important series with some factoids on their resumes that might surprise you.

Jamie Moyer is Major League Baseball’s active leader in career wins.

The 49 year old Colorado Rockies pitcher has been in the big leagues since before I was old enough for the “12 and over” doses of Tylenol. I’m in my late 30s. To my knowledge, he is the sole remaining active professional athlete in a major sports league who played when I was in elementary school.

In fact, for contrast, there are only six active NHL players, two NFL players (Jason Hanson of the Detroit Lions and John Kasay of the New Orleans Saints), and no remaining active NBA players who played when I was in high school. The college contemporaries are growing thin, too.

Moyer has always been a solid contributor to his teams’ starting rotation, but never a dominating pitcher for an extended period of years like several of the men just beneath him on this list. Nonetheless, Moyer, with 269 career wins, leads all other active major leaguers. Unfortunately, playing for the Rockies, he will not add to that total very much.

Moyer in 1986. With good health and a little luck, a man can pile up a lot of wins in a quarter century.

C.C. Sabathia is the fifth in career MLB wins among active players.

C.C. Sabathia is one of the best pitchers in the game; many would argue the best left hander. But at a position in which players can remain active less than a year before their 50th birthdays, the fact that C.C., who debuted in 2001 and turns 32 tomorrow, is among the top five active win leaders is a powerful statement about just how dominant he is.

To put this in perspective, the active career wins leader born after Sabathia is 31 year old Carlos Zambrano of the Miami Marlins. Zambrano is 18th among active pitchers with 130 wins. The active career wins leader among lefties who are C.C.’s junior? Twenty-eight year old Zack Greinke of the Milwaukee Brewers, tied for 49th in wins among active pitchers with Cole Hamels of the Philadelphia Phillies with just 85 career wins.

The big question is can C.C.'s career win total ever exceed his weight in pounds? 2

Albert Pujols is 10th in career runs scored among active players.

Again, the fact that arguably the game’s best player is in the top 10 for active career achievements sounds intuitive. He is the best complete hitter of his time, has average speed, and is a smart baserunner, so why wouldn’t he be high on the career run list? However, at age 32, a healthy baseball player like Pujols is not in the twilight of his career, as players in other sports would be; he’s in (the back end of) his career peak. This is what makes this statistic somewhat incredible.

Pujols has scored 1,341 runs in his career as of this morning. Comparing him similarly to Sabathia, the active career leader, younger than Pujols, in runs scored is 32 year old Mark Teixeira of the New York Yankees with 926. That ranks Teixeira 32nd among active players. In fact, Jimmy Rollins of the Phillies is the next-highest active career leader in runs scored after Pujols among players under the age of 35, ranked 18th with more than 200 fewer runs scored.

Pujols is no diva; he isn't afraid to bring it to the catcher at the plate. Sometimes that doesn't work out so well. 3

The active career leader in triples, Carl Crawford of the Boston Red Sox with 112, is not even in the top 100, all-time for career triples.

This stat is as big of an illustration as any showing how much the game of baseball has changed. The top three all-time leaders are Hall of Famers Sam Crawford, Ty Cobb, and Honus Wagner, all Dead Ball Era hitters. If Crawford left the game today, he would rank 118th all-time.

What has changed? What are the characteristics of a play resulting in a triple? Typically there are three elements: a very hard hit line drive (all the way into the outfield), an awkward bounce off of the right centerfield or right field wall, and a speedy baserunner. The majority of the time a triple is hit, it comes from a left handed hitter. Lefties, of course, are more likely to put the ball in right field, which is almost a necessity for a triple since the greatest distance from the outfield to third base is from right field.

In the Dead Ball Era, some outfield walls were often farther back than modern walls, sometimes upwards of 500 feet to centerfield, meaning that, in some parks, a righty could pull the ball to left, get a quirky bounce off the wall, and still reach third. Sports nutrition supplements did not exist. Endurance and strength conditioning were not in the lexicon of any major professional sports, let alone the one sport in which an out of shape person could thrive – baseball. Fielding was not as crisp and synchronized as today. Outfielders were not as fast, and baserunners were willing to take more risks because hitters were less able to bring them home during the Dead Ball Era than today. In short, it was easier to reach third.

Hall of Famer Sam Crawford is the MLB all-time leader in career triples. 5

No relation to Carl Crawford, sliding to third. 4

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Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics - MLB - June 26, 2012

Now that the NBA season is over, it’s time to make the transition to America’s Pastime at the ooooold ballpark! We brought you an MLB edition of Lies, Damned Lies… last year. What better way to transition back to the most statistics-oriented sport than an expose on some counterintuitive statistics?

Cy Young’s single season career high for strikeouts was only 210 Ks, in 1905.

“Only 210 Ks? That many per year would get a guy a $100,000,000 contract today!” That’s true, except that in the Dead Ball Era of baseball, before bullpen specialization, arbitration, players unions, and modern sports medicine, ace pitchers like Young would average over 40 starts per year and over 300 innings pitched. Considering that 200 strikeouts is a gold standard in a 25-30 starts per year/200 I.P. era, 210 strikeouts by a pitcher so great that the award for the best pitchers in baseball bares his name, over a century later, seems a little low.

Young pitched 320 innings in that 1905 season for the Boston Americans (who would soon become the Red Sox). His career strikeouts per nine innings pitched in his career was a mere 3.4. It was a different game back then!

Not quite the same as the Red Sox's trademark "B". 1

Hall of Fame pitcher Bob Gibson never cracked the top three in MLB ERA leaders after leading the majors in ERA and winning the Cy Young in 1968.

Gibson had a staggeringly low ERA of 1.12 en route to leading the St. Louis Cardinals to the National League championship in 1968. Gibson was so dominant that year that, in response, MLB lowered the pitching mound to help level the field, pun intended. Gibson would never sniff a sub 2.00 ERA ever again.

Gibson would continue to dominate. He would pitch in three more All-Star Games and win another Cy Young (in 1970). It is still surprising, however, that a player who practically could not be scored upon would never really challenge for the MLB ERA lead in the remaining seven years of his career.

Gibson struck out 17 batters in Game 1 of the 1968 World Series against the Detroit Tigers. 2

National League batting leader David Wright (.358, 8 HR, 41 RBI) has never been among the top five batting leaders in the league.

Few people are surprised that Wright is leading the league in hitting through late June. He is one of if not the best hitting third baseman of his time. Yet, in spite of a career batting average of .303, Wright has never been in a serious discussion for batting champion in September. The three time All-Star has never finished higher than 7th (batting .325 in 2007) and has finished the year at 10th or lower in all but one other season (9th – 2005). He is off to a good start for a different finish this year.

Wright and the Mets are simply amazing this year. 3

Alex Rodriguez has not had more than two multi-homerun games in four of the past five seasons.

Again, for a mere mortal, this would not be alarming. But A-Rod has Hall of Fame worthy numbers. He has hit over 600 home runs in his career. In fact, Rodriguez has never played in 100 or more games in a season and failed to reach the 30 home run plateau.

Multi home run games are a means by which every great slugger has bolstered his stats. In years past, it was mentioned often that Rodriguez served up more than one dinger per game. Those occasions are fewer and further between.



Frankly, I thought the fellas would rather look at A-Rod's current girlfriend, WWE's lovely Torrie Wilson, than Rodriguez hitting a ball with a stick. 4

  
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G.O.A.T. (The first edition in a series about greatness in sports)

“G.O.A.T.”….Greatest Of All Time. What does it mean, exactly? What standard should be used in each sport to determine greatness? How much do team success like wins and championships factor into greatness? How much should one era of a sport be credited or discounted over a past or later era of a sport? Should different periods of time even be compared?

This topic reached my wheelhouse this past weekend when a group of college buddies, with whom I regularly discuss all manners of sports, began discussing the legacy of Paul Pierce, in light of Pierce surpassing Larry Bird as the Celtics second all-time leading scorer. This mushroomed, as it often does, into a discussion over the greatest player of all time and who was greater than whom.

This chain of discussions among this circle of friends has taken place for as long as we have all been regularly using email (more than 10 years). The basketball topic always starts some time shortly after the Super Bowl and will drag, sometimes (it feels like) in the same email thread, until after the NBA Finals. What never ceases to amaze me is how distinct, yet predictable, personalities emerge in these discussions.

I am not going to sell you my case for Michael Jordan being the G.O.A.T., not today. In fact, I am not even going to suggest reasons a certain standard, blending multiple measures of achievement. Today, I am going to discuss the lighter side of greatness in sports: the types of people (usually guys) you will inevitably encounter when discussing greatness.


“COUNT THE RINGS” GUY

It is impossible to have a discussion about individual greatness with five or more people without one or more pointing to a player’s skins on the wall as a talking point, if not a closing argument. If you don’t see that guy, it might be you! Count the Rings Guy can be a difficult debate opponent if you disagree with the relative accolades of the person he is promoting. After all, the ultimate goal of playing any competitive sport is to win and, ultimately, win a championship.

This guy has his strengths and weaknesses. Counting championship rings in a sports debate is like using salt or pepper: it can make a meal taste better, but you cannot eat it by itself. If the argument is properly framed, even in a team sport, it can be compelling and difficult to rebut.

Too often, however, this guy falls down the rabbit hole of prefacing and hinging his entire case upon the quantity of championships won by an individual player. If you can trap this guy into that argument, simply counter that reserve center Will Perdue of the Chicago Bulls has three championship rings. If “rings” is all this guy has, the discussion is over.

Bill Russell: G.O.A.T.? 1

“RINGS DON’T COUNT” GUY

This is the antithesis of Ring Guy. He will, correctly, point out that team sports are about more than one individual player. What this guy fails (or refuses) to acknowledge is that great players are the anchors on championship team. Championships won are an output of a great player’s career.

This guy has a strong position when discussing the relative greatness of marginal and role players, guys who were “good” or “key” to winning a championship, but not Hall of Fame players. When discussing true all time greats, particularly those with similar skill sets, winning and losing, particularly in the postseason and especially at the end of the postseason, is one of the few differentiators available to separate one great player’s resume from that of another.

When this guy gets on a roll, ask him who he thinks the five greatest players or coaches are in whatever category you are debating. Only a contrarian could name that many people without any championships, in which case you are talking to a brick wall and should not engage this person. When they name people who won championships, simply press this person to eliminate the championship winners and replace them with non-winners. It is always harder to refute a negative (like championships not mattering) than a positive, but it will throw a speed bump in this guy’s path.

Dan Marino: Zero rings, G.O.A.T.? 2

“HE WOULDN’T SURVIVE IN THE MODERN GAME” GUY (OR “HE WOULDN’T HAVE SURVIVED BACK THEN” GUY)

This is the guy who discounts the accomplishments of great players from the past because their physical dimensions, collectively, are smaller, weaker, and slower than their present-day counterparts. This is a person who will frequently use the words “would, could, and should”. This guy sometimes takes the opposite point of view because, for example, sports were less regulated. But often the bias is one toward the present day. He will argue you in circles if you fall into his trap.

This is one of the weakest debaters. He will not engage you in what actually happened on the field of play but, instead, drown you in hypotheticals of what would have happened. Pointing out that, in professional sports, the talent was more concentrated in the past because there were fewer teams in existence (hence the fraternity of pro athletes was more exclusive) is a waste of time. He will discount any groundbreaking achievements of athletes from the past and ignore the relative dominance of that person at that time. Since there is no real world DeLorean with a Flux Capacitor, which makes time travel possible, the comparison holds no merit because a direct, head-to-head competition between the athletes in question is not possible.

If you are in a debate with several people and this guy does not introduce a different angle, stop acknowledging him and address the talking points of the others. If you are debating this person, one-on-one, just cede the discussion to him or pick a similar era player because you will not get this person to budge, ever.

Jim Brown (Hall of Fame): that bum would be a bust in "the modern game"! 3

“HE WOULD HAVE DOMINATED IF HE PLAYED BACK THEN” GUY (OR “HE WOULD HAVE DOMINATED THESE NEW GUYS” GUY)

This is often the same guy as “He Wouldn’t Survive Today” Guy. If so, point out that if said athlete played back then, that his achievements should be discounted because he wouldn’t have been playing in the modern era. End of discussion. If this person’s bias only runs one way, suggesting that modern athletes would have dominated in the past, take the same approach out lined for “He Wouldn’t Survive Today” Guy. You’ll never win.

Bear Bryant: His legacy spawned off generations of this type of guy in Alabama. 4

“I AM SMARTER THAN YOU” GUY

There is always a guy who has been everywhere and seen everything. Because he has, his opinion is worth more than yours and he will tell you so. If you are debating this guy in an online chat room or fan forum, a simple “fuck you,” followed by moving on to another topic will suffice. If you are debating personal friends and acquaintances, more tact is in order.

Complete tool 6

The best way to handle this guy, should you choose to do so, is to keep him on topic. “I am smarter than you,” is a distraction technique. It’s irrelevant. The topic is sports, not who had the better ACT score. Force his hand and make him defend his statement, if he is so smart.

This guy is abrasive, by the very fact he would suggest he knows more than you (often without knowing what you do or don’t know) and you can expect some tense, heated moments with him. But we are MEN. We usually cannot let a guy earn stripes at our expense in a sports discussion!

There's always one. He knows it all, except how to get a girl! 5

“I AM OLDER THAN YOU” GUY

"Joe Louis was 137 years old!" 7

This is the guy who has a few years on you or the group and his method of propelling his argument and discounting yours is the fact that he saw certain players play and certain events when the activity took place. Like a lot of debating styles, this guy has strengths and weaknesses.

When evaluating a cultural or societal response to an athlete, this person’s opinion, in a vacuum, does hold more weight than a person who did not see and experience a certain performance with comprehension and maturity. This guy, however, thinks that “more weight” means his opinion is the only one that counts. Two-hundred-ten pounds is more than 200 pounds, but it is not a monumental difference. A better informed younger person, for example, is more credible than an ignorant person who watched events unfold without seeing the bigger picture.

Likewise, he thinks that because he saw an athlete from a past era play in person or on live television and you didn’t, he knows more than you about the athlete and any topic involving that athlete as a whole. Again, there is some merit to that point, but it does not give Old Guy carte blanche to dominate the discussion with questionable, stretching-reality opinions. Someone who watched Kiki Wandeweghe play in the 1990s can argue with an 18 year old that Kiki was a better player than LeBron James, but nobody is listening, not even Kiki.

Kiki Vandeweghe: last name, "Ever", first name, "Greatest"? 9

STATS GUY

12

There is always one like this in every discussion. This is often one of the stronger debaters because Stats Guy is backing up his argument with facts. However, there are lies, damned lies, and statistics. This guy, too often, can get caught up in the minutia of numbers while ignoring the eyes test and not analyzing what the numbers are actually telling us.

This guy can be a tough sell. You can talk all day about what “could have” “should have” and “would have” happened until you are blue in the face. The scoreboard is the final arbiter in any athletic contest. This guy, however, often tries to propel a weaker argument by manipulating the numbers and trying to convince the group that the numbers are saying more or less than they really are.

Knowledge is power. The only way to beat this guy is to know some stats of your own and either directly rebut Stats Guy or manipulate some numbers of your own to put him back on his heels. Remember that Daunte Culpepper had the seventh best single season QB rating in NFL history. He will not be fitted for a crème colored jacket or a have a bust in Canton, Ohio one day.

"He whipped Joe Louis' ass!" 8

STATS DON’T COUNT GUY

This is the guy who often doesn’t want to listen to facts or reason if you support your argument with statistics. This is not the antithesis of Stats Guy. Stats Guy goes through analysis paralysis with numbers, but at least is dealing with irrefutable, objective facts. Stats Don’t Count Guy is throwing critical thinking to the wind. His entire position is, often, “That isn’t how I see it.” Try to steer this guy into backing up his claims and comparisons with something of substance. If that does not happen, do not bother engaging this guy. It is his way or the highway.

This guy isn't hearing or seeing your point. 10

“I PLAYED THE GAME” GUY

All Pro? More like, "All JV".  13

This is another example of a person whose life experience does, in fact, add to his credibility. This guy played the sport in question in an organized manner and (presumably) for an extended period of time and (presumably) you did not if he plays the “I played the game,” card. When that card is played, you had better have a strong position, know what you are talking about, and be able to back it up. Because this guy did, in fact, play and you didn’t.

Often, the only weakness this guy exhibits is when he tries to extend his credibility further than he is entitled to. A four year letterman on his high school football team, who did not play in college, probably can spot a flawed fundamental blocking or tackling technique, at any level, that you cannot identify if you never played at that level. He has very little credibility over you in discussing the degree of difficulty of executing a punt return in the NFL. Put this guy in his place when he steps out of place.

The female counterparts to the dudes still reliving their high school glory in sports debates. 11

I’M THAT TYPE OF GUY

I hope you enjoyed this light hearted piece on different kinds of sports debate guys. Chances are you have encountered every last one of these guys and see some of these guy in yourself. Or maybe you said, “Hey…that’s ME he talking about!” The Hat Trick will look into some more angles of evaluating greatness in sports. I hope that this opening salvo lightened the mood before we get into some more meat and potatoes discussion in future editions.

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Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics – Part 5

Denver Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow completed two of eight passes, all game, in a 17-10 win over the Kansas City Chiefs. The Broncos led by 10 points until the final moments of the game. The Broncos win was decisive.

Such passing statistics in a convincing victory defy logic. How can the quarterback complete just two passes, albeit one for a touchdown, and be winning by multiple scores in the fourth quarter. The Broncos' defense and running game was all that was needed and the Broncos did not need to take unnecessary risks by passing with their developing, second year quarterback.

Today's Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics presents some similar statistical anomalies. Whether you are a stat geek or throw the numbers out and stick with the eye test, here are some stats that you probably would not have guessed were true before today. Enjoy!

A devout Christian QB going 2 for 8 and winning an NFL game is great publicity for the power of prayer. 1

Billy Volek completed the 7th most passes ever in a single game (40). Also has a 39 completion performance.

Anyone can have one shining moment in a single game. But I did a double-take when I saw that fewer than 10 men ever completed more passes in a game than Billy Volek did in 2004 against the Oakland Raiders. Five of the other six men ahead of Volek are all former Pro Bowlers, Hall of Fame nominees, a Hall of Famer, and a former MVP & All-Pro; Drew Bledsoe, Rich Gannon, Vinny Testeverde, Richard Todd, Tony Romo, and Warren Moon are the only players in the history of the NFL to complete more passes in a game than Volek, a career jouneyman and backup QB, did on that day in 2004. Volek also had a 39 completion performance earlier in the 2004 season for the usually balanced-to-conservative Titans offense against the Chargers.

Volek, now Philip Rivers' backup with the San Diego Chargers, hasn't had a special career, but had a pair of special days in 2004 against the Raiders and (ironically) the Chargers. I guess the Bolts liked what they saw. 2

Ben Roethlisberger is the active all-time career leader in yards per completion with 12.8. It ranks 77th all time.

That Roesthlisberger, a two time Super Bowl champion, is the active leader, should come as no surprise. That Roethlisberger is tied for 77th all time was shocking to me. Looking at the people ahead of him, however, I observed that the years in which the quarterbacks played seemed to get earlier and earlier as I got closer to the top.

The record is 16.7 yards per completion held by Hall of Fame passer Arnie Herber, whose career ended at the beginning of the Baby Boom. My only theory is that the forward pass was used less before the modern era (Herber, for example, never completed 100 passes in a season) and when it was used, successfully, it was to make a difference making, game breaking play downfield. Take that theory with a grain of salt.

The all-time yards per completion leaders played in an era in which the Steelers' uniforms looked more like this. 3

Former Cincinnati Bengal Ken Riley is fifth in NFL history for career interceptions, with 65, yet never made the Pro Bowl.

Statistics never tell the whole story but some statistics are so overwhelming that you can be certain of what was not the story. The last year of Riley’s career was the first year I really understood what I was watching. So I never really watched Riley play.

However, sixty-five career interceptions (including four from his 1969 rookie year in the AFL), when picking off more than 5 passes in a season should place a player in or near the top 10 in the league for that season, tells me that Ken Riley was a defensive enforcer and if a quarterback tempted fate by throwing in his direction too often, said QB would encounter a negative result. How he is not in the Hall of Fame, let alone never made a Pro Bowl (Riley was First Team AP All-Pro in 1983, the final year of his career) is mind blowing to me.

Riley had seven seasons with five or more interceptions, including leading the AFC with nine in 1976, five in 1982 (only nine games played due to a player’s strike), and eight in 1983. Only one other retired player, Dave Brown, among the NFL’s top ten all-time interception leaders (Darren Sharper, an active free agent, is sixth, all time with 63 interceptions) is not in the Hall of Fame. Only Hall of Fame players Paul Krause, Emlen Tunnell, Rod Woodson, and Dick “Night Train” Lane have more career picks. Riley’s exclusion from the Hall, in light of this information, is a travesty in my opinion.

How is this man not in the Hall of Fame??? 4

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