Retweet of the Day - October 2, 2013

The sports fans of Pittsburgh, like nearly every fall, have good cause to be excited. It has nothing to do with their beloved, 0-4, NFL team, the Pittsburgh Steelers. Baseball is the talk of the Steel City.

The Pittsburgh Pirates played their first playoff game in 21 years yesterday, beating the visiting Cincinnati Reds, 6-2. The Bucs will advance to the National League Division Series against the N.L. Central champion St. Louis Cardinals.

The crowd dominated the name, verbally running Reds ace and starting pitcher Johnny Cueto (5-2, 2.82 ERA) out of PNC Park.with chants of "Cue-to! Cue-to!". The energy at the park seemed tangible and its effect was undeniable. If ever there were a town whose baseball fans deserved a reason to celebrate, it is Pittsburgh.

Today's retweet, by Alana Russo ‏(@alanarusso), puts the Pirates' postseason drought into historical perspective:

"Things that hadn't happened yet the last time the Pirates won a playoff game: Bill Clinton's presidency, the end of apartheid, the internet"

This also had not happened the last time the Pirates won a playoff game. It would happen just days after and mark the beginning of a two-decade long baseball depression in Pittsburgh.

Must See Sports – Fourth Weekend of August 2013

Last week's advantage/disadvantage record, excluding series: 3-1
Last week's advantage/disadvantage record in series: 1-3
2013 Advantage/Disadvantage Record, excluding series: 36-30 

2013 Advantage/Disadvantage Record (series only): 8-8-4

Just one more week before the return of college football, folks! Get ready!

Thursday, August 22

NFL Preseason Football

Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens

The third week of preseason is the dress rehearsal game, so this could be the first glimpse of what we can expect from two teams with quarterbacks with high expectations.  Cam Newton is setting out to prove that he can bring his game and his team to a higher level in 2013. Labeling 2012 a ”sophomore slump” for Newton maybe be hyperbole, but only a little bit.

Joe Flacco reaped the benefits of a quarterback who bet on himself going into a contract year and signed the jackpot of new contracts. The defending Super Bowl champion Ravens made Flacco the highest paid QB in the league after he was awarded the MVP of Super Bowl XLVII. The Ravens lost a significant chunk of their 2012 starters from retirement, waivers, and free agency. The spotlight is squarely on Flacco this year.

Friday, August 23

NFL Preseason Football

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers

 
The possibility of this being a preseason glimpse of the NFC Championship game is not farfetched. In many ways the controversial Monday Night Football game between these two teams in 2012, ending on a disputable Hail Mary touchdown pass from Russell Wilson to Golden Tate, vaulted the Seahawks into the front of the NFC race. The Packers are a team with an offense capable of getting them to a Super Bowl every year. They will be without Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target before this season, Greg Jennings, who joined the Vikings as a free agent in the offseason.

Make no mistake. Just because it doesn’t count doesn’t mean it doesn’t matter. The Packers and their fans haven’t forgotten how the Seahawks essentially stole one from them with help from replacement officials last year. There will be some small measure of payback on the mind of the Pack.

Major League Baseball

Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals

Kris Medlen (10-11, 3.71 ERA) – Braves vs Adam Wainwright (14-7, 2.66 ERA, 173 Ks) – Cardinals

 
This battle of heavyweights may factor into determining home field in the National League playoffs this fall. The Braves have completely run away with the N.L. East. MLB may as well crown them as division champions now. The Cards are in a three way dogfight in the N.L. Central that could be decided on the final day of the regular season.

St. Louis is currently a game back of the first place Pittsburgh Pirates and a game ahead of the third place Cincinnati Reds. They play exceptionally well at home and have a pitching advantage on paper, though Kris Medlen has been hotter of late. In addition, Braves outfielder Jason Heyward (.253, 13 HR, 37 RBI) is out for at least a month after suffering a broken right jaw after being hit by a pitch earlier this week. I think the scales of home field advantage tip this game in the Redbirds’ favor.

Advantages: Game – Cardinals, Series – Cardinals

Jason Heyward...OUCH! 4

Saturday, August 24

Major League Baseball

Detroit Tigers at New York Mets

Max Scherzer (18-1, 2.82 ERA, 185 ERA) – Tigers vs Matt Harvey (9-4, 2.25 ERA, 187 Ks) – Mets

 
Expect this to be a spectacular pitching matchup. Matt Harvey is the one pitcher in the Mets rotations that gives their fans legitimate cause for excitement. Unfortunately for Mets Fans, Detroit is just too good and Scherzer is on fire. The Mets just cannot hit while the Tigers lineup is potent from top to bottom.

Advantages: Game – Tigers, Series – Tigers

Sunday, August 25

NFL Preseason Football

New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans

 
Are you a Who Dat? I am! I naively said, last year, that this could be a preview of the Super Bowl. The Saints had merry-go-round management due to the Bountygate suspensions and the Texans just weren’t ready for the big show yet. Both teams are out to prove this game is different. This is a great dress rehearsal for both clubs.

Saints quarterback Drew Brees (left) and former LSU and current Oakland Raiders QB Matt Flynn. Who do you think would be the first to want to trade places? 3

Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers

The Vikings are seeking to build on their playoff appearance from a year ago. They have to improve throwing the football to do so. The defending NFC champion 49ers have a quarterback in Colin Kaepernick who will face the challenge of running an offense from the start of the season through the end for the first time. Defensive coordinators have has all offseason to break down and analyze Kaepernick’s game.

In addition, there is only one result the 49ers can have that would improve upon last year. The pressure is on. Can Kaepernick rise to the challenge this year?

Major League Baseball

Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers

Jake Peavy (9-5, 4.25 ERA) – Red Sox vs Chris Capuano (4-6, 4.70 ERA) – Dodgers

 
The trade from the Chicago White Sox to the Red Sox is just what the doctor ordered for both Peavy and the BoSox, sort of. After earning a win in his first start with Boston, Peavy was been slapped around the yard and earned a loss against the Kansas City Royals followed by a hard-luck loss at Toronto and a no decision in a Red Sox loss to the Giants in which Peavy only gave up one earned run.

Chris Cupano has been the weak link in the Dodgers’ rotation all year. He have an ERA over 5.00 in August and hasn’t earned a win at Chavez Ravine in over a month. As blazing hot as the Dodgers have been in the second half of the season, the Red Sox are in a desperate struggle to cling to their thin, one game lead over the Tampa Bay Rays in the A.L. East. I think the Sox take the rubber match in this series.

Advantages: Game – Red Sox, Series – Dodgers

The Padres...the White Sox...Katie Peavy is just as happy has hubby Jake to be in Boston, I'd imagine. 2

Monday, August 26

Major League Baseball

Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals

Mike Leake (11-5, 3.12 ERA) – Reds vs Jake Westbrook (7-8, 4.49 ERA) – Cardinals

 
In spite of the Cardinals being hot and in spite of the Cardinals being very good at home against a mediocre road team in Cincinnati, the stars are lined up for the Reds on Monday Night. Jake Westbrook is in a deep funk, earning four consecutive decisions as losses. He’s been slapped all around the majors in August, with an eye popping 10.29 ERA during the month and no wins.

Leake has been porous in August himself, with an ERA over 6.00 for the month, but he hasn’t been losing games. How well your team is performing decides the risks you can take on the mound and Leake has been stacking more “W’s” than “L’s” all season. When two teams are similarly talented, it’s all about the pitching.

Advantages: Game – Reds, Series – Cardinals  

Wednesday, August 28

Major League Baseball

Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox

Bud Norris (9-10, 4.22 ERA) – Orioles vs Felix Doubront (9-6, 3.79 ERA) – Red Sox

I don’t know if the casual baseball fan can fully appreciate how much of an upgrade the trade for Bud Norris from the Houston Astros was for the Orioles’ starting rotation. Before Norris’ arrival, the Orioles starters’ ERA was approaching 5.00. He is 3-0 as a starter, only giving up nine earned runs in four starts. Adding him to the rotation has taken significant pressure off of the overworked bullpen and the position players.

The Red Sox have reached the “every game matters” part of the season with the Rays and O’s in hot pursuit. Baltimore is in striking distance in both the Wild Card and A.L. East races, so expect both teams to leave everything on the field in this series. With Dubront, you don’t know which pitcher you are getting. He’s feast or famine. Norris is Steady Eddie. For that reason, I like Baltimore in this game.

Advantages: Game – Orioles, Series – Red Sox   

Norris couldn't be happier to get a shaving cream pie. I doubt he had many in Houston. 1

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Must See Sports - Second Weekend of July 2013

Last week's advantage/disadvantage record, excluding series: 2-2
Last week's advantage/disadvantage record in series: 1-1
2013 Advantage/Disadvantage Record, excluding series: 27-27 

2013 Advantage/Disadvantage Record (series only): 3-4-1

It's all baseball this week, guys!


Friday, July 12

Major League Baseball

Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves

Bronson Arroyo (7-7, 3.55 ERA) - Reds vs Kris Medlen (6-8, 3.45 ERA) - Braves

Both pitchers appear to have shaken off rocky start to the year. Arroyo appears to have settled down and found his groove after giving up a lot of runs in the month of April and into early May. Medlen was the victim of some hard-luck losses (and no decisions) early in the year, but has won five of his last seven decisions.

Medlen was torched in his last start against the Philadelphia Phillies and Arroyo posted a loss in spite of a quality start in his last appearance against the often punchless Seattle Mariners. Both men are looking to get back on track.

This could be a playoff preview. Both teams are among the best in the National League, though the Reds are embroiled in an N.L. Central division dogfight with the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates, with two of the three best records in Major League Baseball. This game and this series appear very even on paper, but the Braves are very tough at home and I think that gives them the edge in this pre-All-Star matchup.

Advantages: Game – Braves, Series – Braves

Arroyo's got his groove back. 1

Saturday, July 13

Major League Baseball

Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers

Tyler Chatwood (5-2, 2.74 ERA) - Rockies vs Zack Grienke (7-2, 3.91 ERA) - Dodgers

I don’t know much about third year Rockies starting pitcher Tyler Chatwood, but any Rockies pitcher with an ERA under 3.00 through 11 starts has my attention. Greinke has also been hot. He has won five straight decisions. He’s anything if not a seasoned game manager.

The Dodgers are on fire after being in last place last month. Unless you’ve been in a coma, you’ve heard about the rapid ascension of rookie right fielder Yasiel Puig (.397, 8 HR, 19 RBI) to stardom. However, shortstop Hanley Ramirez’s (.402, 8 HR, 24 RBI, 1.185 OPS, 36 GP) hot streak since returning to the lineup last month has flown under the radar. He has reached base in 22 of the last 23 games and is tearing the cover off of the ball.

Puig, Ramirez, and the starting pitchers have helped L.A. close to within a game and a half of the first place Arizona Diamondbacks. The Rockies have a couple of hot hands in outfielders Carlos Gonzalez (.307, 25 HR, 64 RBI) and Michael Cuddyer (.332, 15 HR, 52 RBI). It is also not clear if Puig, who left yesterday’s game with a hip injury, will play. But the Dodgers are hot and I like them in this series.

Advantages: Game – Dodgers, Series – Dodgers

Things are looking up for Hanley Ramirez and the Dodgers. 2

Sunday, July 14

Major League Baseball

Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers

Martin Perez (3-1, 2.08 ERA) - Rangers vs Justin Verlander (9-6, 3.71, 122 Ks) - Tigers

The young Venezuelan Perez is off to a rapid start, with three wins in five starts this year. However, the first place Tigers are hot right now and the Rangers appear to be cooling off, being passed this week by the Oakland A’s for first place in the American League West division.  

Tigers third baseman and reigning American League Most Valuable Player Miguel Cabrera (.366, 30 HR, 94 RBI, 1.138 OPS) is playing like some kind of superman right now. Also, the Rangers will be without designated hitter Lance Berkman (.254, 6 HR, 34 RBI), who is on the 15 day Disabled List with a hip injury. Berkman has been dogged all season with nagging injuries. That’s enough to tip the scales in the Tigers’ favor on Sunday, in my opinion.

Advantages: Game – Tigers, Series – Tigers

Miguel Cabrera is the first MLB player, ever, to hit 30 home runs and 90 RBIs before the All-Star break. 3

Monday, July 15

MLB Home Run Derby presented by Chevrolet

The best sluggers in the National League go head-to-head with their American League rivals. American league headliners include Robinson Cano of the New York Yankees, former two time (2009, 2012) derby champion Prince Fielder of the Detroit Tigers, and Chris Davis of the Baltimore Orioles. National Leaguers include New York Mets third baseman David Wright, Bryce Harper of the Washington Nationals, and Carlos Gonzalez of the Colorado Rockies.

Well, he is a vegan. 4

Tuesday, July 16

MLB All-Star Game

American League All-Stars at National League All-Stars

The Midsummer Classic pits the best against the best for the fans. For the players? One unlucky team will not have home field advantage in the World Series as a result of this exhibition game played by players and managed by managers who won’t give a damn the next day.

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2013 MLB Preview – National League

America’s pastime began another campaign on Sunday night, with the first full day of action being yesterday. With all of the March Madness and Miami Mania in the NBA, it may have been easy for baseball to fall off of your sports fan radar. The Hat Trick is here to usher you in to another year of Major League Baseball.

As we have done in the past, we will update our expectations for the season before, at, and after the All-Star break. Teams are listed in order of expected 2013 finish. American League teams will be previewed tomorrow.

N.L. East

Washington Nationals

Last year, they were a feel good story. This year, they are a front runner. Washington has the best pitching in the National League. They can hit the ball as well as any team in the N.L.. They are the hunted, not the hunters.

The keys to the Nats building on their 2012 breakout out are their start players. Outfielder Bryce Harper needs to continue to build on a great rookie campaign (he’s off to a great start, one game into the season). Ace pitcher Stephen Strasburg simply needs to remain healthy, and fellow starter Gio Gonzalez needs to show that last year’s Cy Young contending season was not a fluke.   

Atlanta Braves

Expect the first year of the post Chipper Jones era to be no different than last year. Atlanta will play well. They will be a tough win. They will pitch very well. A playoff appearance should not be a surprise. But I don’t expect them to appear in the NLCS.

I like the acquisition of left fielder Justin Upton from the Diamondbacks and love the acquisition of his brother, centerfielder B.J. Upton from the Rays. Still, the driving force on this team will continue to be pitching. Time will tell if the Braves made the correct choice in letting go of often injured starter Jair Jurrjens (Orioles). The bullpen is as solid as ever and ace starter, 37 year old Tim Hudson (16-7, 3.62 ERA in 2012), is poised for another solid season.

Philadelphia Phillies

What to make of the Philadelphia Phillies. They owned the N.L. East for the previous half decade and then went into a black hole last season. They are not the team they were, a team that was a presumptive front runner in the National League for the last several years. 

The Phillies got into too deep of a hole too early to make it out last season. They must have better play from their bullpen, which often led Philly into the abyss last season. I like the pick-up of third baseman Michael Young. Their position players must play up to expectations. Having former All-Star first baseman Ryan Howard for (hopefully) the entire season should be a boost. Don’t be surprised to see the Phillies get at least one game to prove themselves in the postseason.

New York Mets

There’s the first pitch…and the season’s over!

Miami Marlins

Ah! Brand new, state of the art Marlins Park! Opened 2012!

Grand opening…grand closing, just like this season in Miami.

Let life imitate art.

N.L. Central

Cincinnati Reds

This team is LOADED! I cannot help but wonder how far this team could have gone last year had ace Johnny Cueto (19-9, 2.78 ERA in 2012) not been injured in the first inning of the National League Divisional Series against the eventual World Series champion San Francisco Giants. The Reds have the same potent weapons on the mound and at the plate and I can only imagine a chip on their collective shoulder after last year’s bitter postseason disappointment.   

Pittsburgh Pirates

Can this team end its 21 year playoff drought? They have their star in centerfielder Andrew McCutchen (.327 avg., 31 HR, 96 RBI, .400 OBP), made a key pickup in catcher Russell Martin (21 HR in 2012 with the Yankees) and have the most of same stellar bullpen that carried this team to wins last season.

The notable absence? Closer Joel Hanrahan left the Bucs for the Boston Red Sox this past offseason. That will leave it on the shoulders of 36 year old Jason Grilli, who is untested as a closer, to nail down close games. 

The biggest improvement the Pirates made over the last year is to their starting pitching. What could push Pittsburgh into the post season is the addition of Wandy Rodriguez late last season in concert with a sustained successful campaign of pitcher James McDonald, who started off 2012 looking like a Cy Young winner and utterly collapsed after the All-Star break. Also, 36 year old ace A.J. Burnett needs to remain healthy.  

St. Louis Cardinals

Chris Carpenter: gone. Lance Berkman: gone. Kyle Loshe: gone. Chances at a third straight playoff run: gone.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brew Crew made a splash, sort of, by signing Kyle Loshe (16-3, 2.86 ERA in 2012)to a lucrative, long term contract. They are solid in the field and at the plate. The Lohse signing will give the starting rotation a desperately needed boost. But will it be enough to get the Brewers back into the postseason?

Chicago Cubs

Good news: Theo Epstein is behind the controls. Bad news: the car was a junkyard chassis when he was handed the keys. Epstein has fast-tracked some of the Cubs’ young talent full-time to the big leagues quickly and expectations are high. First baseman Anthony Rizzo (.285, 15 HR in 87 GP in 2012) is one to keep an eye on. He’s a young talent who came on strong late last season and could bolster the Cubs’ lineup this year.

The Cubs pipeline, from all accounts, is moving quickly, but Rome wasn’t built in a day and the Cubs can only make so many changes in two seasons. A non-cellar dweller finish would be a success for this team, but I am not willing to pick the Cubbies ahead of anyone in this division…yet.

With Aroldis Chapman as the closer, the Reds' opponents essentially have to get it done in eight innings while the Reds have nine. 1

N.L. West

Los Angeles Dodgers

Whoever said you can’t buy success never watched Major League Baseball. The Los Dodgers have upped the ante in the N.L. West. Since the start of last season, the Dodgers have broken the bank to bring in shortstop Hanley Ramirez, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, left fielder Carl Crawford, utility man Skip Schumaker, and starting pitchers Josh Beckett and Zack Greinke. This looks more like an All-Star Game lineup than an opening day roster.

Don Mattingly is running the dugout. Front man Magic Johnson and his group are running the front office. I think the Dodgers are running the division this year.

San Francisco Giants

By and large, these are the same old Giants. That isn’t a bad thing. They’ve won two of the last three World Series. This team is going to live and die by its pitching, but it is clear that the Giants took a step up at the plate last year. The addition of right fielder Hunter Pence (.253 avg., 24 HR, 104 RBI in 2012) via trade from the Phillies provided a big push to the batting order.  Second baseman Marco Scutaro (.306 avg, 7 HR, 74 RBI in 2012) also came on strong after the All-Star break after being acquired from the Colorado Rockies. With no changes to the starting pitching and closer Sergio Romo filling the shoes of the now departed Brian Wilson, expect the Giants to be in a slugfest with the Dodgers for most of the season.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Snakes can sneak up on their prey in the West. Arizona quietly remained within striking distance of a playoff spot until the final weeks of the 2012 season. It has to improve on its .500 record from last year. The problem? This is a team whose strength was in its offense, lost key offensive players, and made no major starting pitching upgrades. Third baseman Martin Prado (.301, 10 HR, 70 RBI) was a key pick-up, but it hardly offsets the power losses of Justin Upton and Chris Young.

San Diego Padres

I read an article in Bleacher Report saying, “Don’t count the Padres out.” One, two, three…ten. They’re out! Lackluster pitching plus an infield with guys I’ve never heard of equals a lot of free ticket giveaways after the All-Star break.

Colorado Rockies

Good position players…. Worst…starting…pitching…ever! EV-ER!!!

If Hanley Ramirez (13) behaves himself this year, he and the Dodgers might steal more than second base from the Giants. 2

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Home Stretch - National League

We are approaching the final week of Major League Baseball's regular season. I seldom give Bud Selig a lot of credit because he doesn't deserve a lot of credit. However, his changes to MLB's playoff system - adding the Wild Card, which first played in the 1995 season, and adding a second wild card this season - were a pair of brilliant strokes.

Of baseball's 30 teams four teams, all in the National League, have clinched playoff berths. There are 11 teams, eight in the American League and three in the National League, either in the lead for a playoff spot or are four or fewer games back of a playoff spot. One spot in the National League and all five spots in the American League have not yet been clinched. Today we will focus on the playoff situation in the N.L.

THE CONTENDERS

National League

The San Francisco Giants and Cincinnati Reds have clinched the National League West and Central divisions, respectively. The Washington Nationals are in the driver's seat in the National League East with a four game lead over the Atlanta Braves. Both the Braves and Nationals have clinched playoff births. Both the Reds and Nationals are tied for the best record in the major leagues. The Nationals franchise is in the playoffs for only the second time in team history, reaching the National League Championship Series as the Montreal Expos in 1981.

The Braves will probably have to host the National League Wild Card game, barring an utter collapse by the Nationals in the final games of the regular season. The only mystery remaining in the National League involves who will clinch the second and final Wild Card spot. The following teams are fighting for their playoff lives over the next week and a half:


St. Louis Cardinals

The Hat Trick has warned Cards Fan of the pending late season danger on multiple occasions. The bullpen has been the Achilles heel of St. Louis over the course of the season. At one point in September, the Cardinals had lost 8 of 10 games. Interestingly, only two of those eight losses were charged to relievers. The responsibility could largely be placed on the absence of normally potent bats in the Cardinals lineup. St. Louis appears to have righted the ship and continues to control its own playoff destiny, but not before allowing the Dodgers and Brewers back into the N.L. Wild Card race.


Los Angeles Dodgers

This team is an enigma. They were in a tit-for-tat with the Giants for much of the season. Then they suffered a key injury to their star, Matt Kemp. The Dodgers made blockbuster trades to bring in Shane Victorino (.250, 10 HR, 51 RBI), Hanley Ramirez (.250, 24 HR, 90 RBI), Adrian Gonzalez (.291, 18 HR, 104 RBI), Josh Beckett (6-15, 4.78 ERA), and Carl Crawford (out for the season). Conventional wisdom dictated that L.A. should have gotten a boost and, if not catch the Giants, place significant pressure on San Francisco.

Instead the Giants clinched the West last week and the Dodgers are still trying to chase down the St. Louis Cardinals, in spite of a mini meltdown by the Cards this month. The Dodgers are 3.5 games back of St. Louis. The bats have appeared to liven up in the second half of the month and that must continue if the Dodgers expect to play in October.

Gonzalez is trying to bring some of his magic to the West Coast. 2

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers have set an inferno in the National League in the month of September, with a record of 16-6 on the month. Between the ineptitude of the Cardinals and inconsistency of the Dodgers, the seemingly nonstop winning of the Brew Crew has placed them in the thick of the Wild Card race. Ryan Braun (.317, 40 HR, 108 RBI) is batting .360 during this month with an on base plus slugging percentage of just under 1.000. 

Milwaukee is batting .286 as a team this month and has bashed 28 balls out of the park in September. While the Brewers have remained offensively potent in 2012, in spite of the loss of Prince Fielder to the Detroit Tigers in free agency, the starting pitching is just okay and the bullpen is unreliable. Even if the Brewers' hot streak carries them into the post season, I cannot see them lasting long in October.

Braun's MVP worthy performance has the Brewers still alive against all odds. 1

Later this week: the American League!


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MLB in Review - Three Quarter Point - National League

The home stretch is underway in Major League Baseball. I put in my two cents at the start of the season, forty games in, and at the All-Star break for the National and American leagues. I was wrong on a few things before Opening Day, but I was right on a lot. Of course, like in any situation, I refined my opinion as I had more information.

There is just a little over one month to go and in the words of the hip-hop poet, Young Joc, it's goin' DOWN! My pre-Opening Day remarks are in black, one-quarter point remarks in blue, All-Star break remarks in green, and pre-September stretch comments in red!


NATIONAL LEAGUE

N.L. East

Philadelphia Phillies (57-67, 3rd place) – In 2010 and 2011, I said that MLB may as well skip to the World Series and hand the Phillies the National League pennant. Both years, the St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants reminded me: THAT’S WHY THEY PLAY THE GAMES. The addition of closer Jonathan Papelbon did not encourage me to change my ways. Not having completely learned my lesson, I’ll modify that to say that MLB may as well skip the regular season hand the Phillies the N.L. East division title.

Let me modify my early season remarks to say that Philadelphia had better get its last place butt in gear. That said, they are only 3 games back, so I am sticking with my pre-season expectation that they will win the N.L. East.

The words: Whiskey Tango Foxtrot? The Phillies first half debacle defies all logic and reason. Cliff Lee's (1-5, 3.98 ERA, 98 Ks) inability to bribe his way to a win until last week and the overall ineptitude of the starting rotation as a unit is a big reason. The absolute incompetence of the middle relievers and their inability to keep the ball in the yard is another reason. And the absence of Ryan Howard from the lineup until this past weekend due to injury is a third factor. I will not say, "Stick a fork in them" because this team does have the talent and experience to make a furious second half run. Just don't hold your breath, Phillies Fan.

What a bitterly disappointing season. They have pride to play for, and they may be able to avoid finishing in the cellar for the first time in 12 years. What went wrong? The strength of the Phillies, what set them apart, was their starting pitching. It wasn't there and so the Phillies will not be there in the playoffs for the first time since 2006.

Washington Nationals (77-47, 1st place) – With some big offseason moves the last two seasons and the return of a healthy Stephen Strasburg the Nationals are the Detroit Lions pre-season pick of Major League Baseball. If they stay healthy, I expect them to be second in the East and to be in the Wild Card race.

Many said the Nationals were a year away from making a serious run for the post season. Not I! Then again, even a broken clock is right twice per day.

The Washington Nationals franchise has played 43 seasons of baseball prior to 2012, dating back to their inception as the Montreal Expos in 1969. In 43 years, this woeful franchise has only made the playoffs once, in 1981. It has only finished the season in first place twice, the 1981 season and in 1994. Unfortunately, there were no playoffs in 1994 due to the players' strike. During their seven seasons (prior to this year) as the Washington Nationals, the Nationals have finished last in five of those seasons (finishing fourth in 2007 and third last year).

Barack Obama deserves no credit, but change is coming to Washington. Their starting rotation of Stephen Strasburg (9-4, 2.82 ERA, 128 Ks), Gio Gonzalez (12-3, 2.92 ERA, 118 Ks), Jordan Zimmerman (5-6, 2.61 ERA), Edwin Jackson (5-4, 3.73 ERA), and Ross Detwiler (4-3, 3.43 ERA) is lock down, lights out, and just plain nasty! Rookie outfielder Bryce Harper (.282, 8 HR, 25 RBI) is the most exciting young player in the National League. Manager Davey Johnson looks like a genius who is ready to party like it's 1986, when he managed the New York Mets to the World Series championship. 

Congress could solve the deficit by loading up on Nationals stock because this team is at the very beginning of a rapid rise to the top of the National League!

This was an early season prediction that turned out better than I bargained for. The Nationals, with the best record in the majors, will probably win the division, not just make the playoffs. They have a real dilemma on their hands, however, as they will probably be without the ace in their rotation, Stephen Strasburg (15-5, 2.85 ERA, 183 Ks). The Nats are limiting Strasburg's innings pitched this season because he is coming off of Tommy John surgery in 2011. 

My feelings are mixed. The Nationals franchise has not been to the playoffs since its sole appearance in the 1981 National League Championship Series as the Montreal Expos. They drafted Strasburg to win a World Series. There is no guarantee that Washington will win the division again anytime soon, especially considering they are in the same division as the consistently competitive Atlanta Braves, the always talented Philadelphia Phillies, and the consistently underachieving New York Mets (who are bound to play up to their potential eventually). 

On the other hand, the Nationals are loaded with young talent and a World Series winning manager in Davey Johnson (1986 Mets). The Nationals drafted Stephen Strasburg to be dominant five years from now...ten years from now...and possibly longer. They are protecting their most precious investment by limiting Strasburg's innings pitched.

This is why I am not an MLB manager and I do not envy the delicate position of Johnson or Nationals General Manager Mike Rizzo.


Atlanta Braves (71-53, 2nd place) – Top flight pitching and weak hitting equals a lot of regular season wins and no room for error in the playoffs.

Still waiting on that top flight pitching.... Braves Fan should send flowers and fruit baskets to Dan Uggla (.267, 8 HR, 31 RBI) and Martin Prado (.322, 3 HR, 22 RBI) for keeping the team within striking distance.

The Braves pitching really tightened up with a 3.53 ERA in the month of June. The bats also heated up, hitting .264 as a team and with a team on base plus slugging percentage of .728 last month. Jair Jurrgens' (3-2, 4.97 ERA) recent return to the rotation is going to give the Braves a tremendous boost in chasing down the surprising Nationals in the N.L. East.

This team deserves to make the playoffs. I hope they host the Wild Card game and I hope they win it. The Braves have always been among my top three favorite National League franchises. In what is probably Chipper Jones' (.310, 13 HR, 54 RBI) final season, I absolutely want them to be in the mix in October.

Atlanta holds a 3.5 game lead over the St. Louis Cardinals for the top Wild Card spot. To keep that lead the pitching staff, especially the bullpen, needs to continue to play at the high level at which they have played all year. Braves Fan should still be concerned about the lack of good innings the starting rotation is offering. But as long as closer Craig Kimbrell (0-1, 1.17 ERA, 31 SV) and the 'pen continue to shut opponents down, like they have all year, the Braves will be Tomahawk Chopping after the regular season.


Miami Marlins – (57-69, 5th place) Ozzie and the Fish are going to experience growing pains. I expect a circus in year one, but not a train wreck.

And...the Ozzie Circus started (almost) with the opening pitch of the season. However, there is a reason GMs put up with Ozzie; he's that good. Miami is off to as good of a start through 40-plus games as they have been in years.

The Fish have gone into a horrific tailspin since June and cannot seem to stop the bleeding. The formula is quite simple. Small ball plus small batting averages times wimpy power hitting divided by good starting pitching minus a bullpen that gives it up more than a punk in prison equals deep doo doo at the All-Star break. 

Bullpens do not get better as the season progresses, they get worse because they get tired from increased wear and tear. The only sliver of light in the Marlins 'pen is that Heath Bell (2-4, 6.75 ERA, 19 SV, 8.5 K/9 IP) appears to have awaken and realized that he is a major league closer. Bell had a 3.86 ERA, no blown saves, and a whopping 12 strikeouts per nine innings pitched last month.

The grand investment in the gorgeous new stadium and the grand experiment with manager Ozzie Guillen and the imported free agent all stars has been a grand catastrophe. This team has suffered from a lack of chemistry for years and it just got worse when they imported several MLB alpha males. Last year's National League batting champion, Jose Reyes, has been productive, but not lived up to his mammoth contract. Heath Bell was a bitter disappointment in the first half of the season. The starting pitchers have been "good enough" if the support they received had been "okay". 

I have confidence in Guillen as a manager to right the ship. The common denominator in the annual irrelevance of this franchise is the franchise, not the manager. If I am in the Fish's front office, I am listening very attentively to the 2005 World Series winning manager. 


New York Mets – (57-67, 3rd place) There’s the train wreck!

Or perhaps not.... The Mets have been the epitome of "dysfunction" over the previous five seasons. Yet disciplined batting, anchored by a rejuvenated third baseman David Wright (.365, 5 HR, 30 RBI), and a healthy Johan Santana (2-2, 2.75 ERA, 60 Ks) leading the pitching staff, have the Mets looking like a legitimate MLB team!

The feel good story that is the 2012 Mets continues. The big story in Mets camp has been hard throwing knuckleballer R.A. Dicky (12-1, 2.40 ERA, 123 Ks, pitched a one-hitter in June). Using the words "hard throwing" and "knuckleballer" together are a big part of why he is such a big story. Third baseman David Wright (.351, 11 HR, 59 RBI, 1.004 OPS) is making another push for his first, ever batting title. Can the bullpen pick up its weight? That appears to be the only weakness on this team.     

Same old Mets.... The only difference is that there is a glaring area needing improvement - the bullpen. The play of R.A. Dickey (15-4, 2.82 ERA, 181 Ks) had Mets Fan with some cause for optimism. The starting pitchers held their collective weight and the run support was adequate. But with Frank Francisco (1-3, 6.64 ERA, 20 SV) as a closer and deplorable middle relief, the Mets are lucky to be in 3rd place. 

The Nationals are going to miss Stephen Strasburg dearly in October. 1

N.L. Central

Cincinnati Reds – (76-49, 1st place) The opposite of the Atlanta Braves. If they can just tighten up their pitching to the tune of 0.30 earned runs per game, I think they win the division. I love the promotion of Aroldis Chapman to the top of the starting rotation. Big risk…big reward? I like the Reds in the Central.

While Chapman (4-0, 0.00 ERA, 44 Ks, 26.0 IP) did not get the promotion I expected, he and the entire Reds' pitching staff have held their own. Joey Votto (.325, 8 HR, 29 RBI, 1.060 OBPS), so far, is earning his keep from his L..O..N..G (near) quarter-billion dollar contract extension.

The Reds fell back into second place not so much because of their failures as much as the Pittsburgh Pirates' red hot surge. The Reds are a team that opponents cannot hit against. They have the best first baseman in the National League in MVP contender Joey Votto (.348, 14 HR, 48 RBI, 1.089 OPS, .994 Fld%). Cincinnati is living by the long ball. That is fine as long as your pitching staff continues to support your habit. But if the Reds have to enter the playoffs as a Wild Card, they could die by the homer. 

Cincinnati caught fire in the month of July and are now running away with the Central Division. It looks like I was correct on picking this division winner. Even without 2010 National League MVP Joey Votto (.342, 14 HR, 49 HR, 1.069 OBPS, 86 GP) back in the lineup yet, the Reds, with the second best record in MLB, have as good a chance of any team of winning the pennant. 

This team has no weaknesses...none! The starting pitching is outstanding; the bullpen is outstanding; the power hitting is outstanding. If I had to bet money right now, I would put it on the Reds to win the National League. 


St. Louis Cardinals – (67-56, 2nd place) Adding Adam Wainwright minus Albert Pujols equals a net loss. The Redbirds snuck into the playoffs last year. Not happening in 2012….

Carlos Beltran (.294, 15 HR, 42 RBI) happens. Interpret that as you will.

Great hitting plus solid staring pitching minus crappy bullpen equals no successful defense of the World Series title. 

The Cardinals have all but one of the pieces perfectly in place to repeat as World Series champions. That missing piece is the bullpen and it will be their undoing, either in the regular season or the playoffs.


Milwaukee Brewers (57-66, 4th place) – The pitching is still uninspired and now there is no Prince Fielder. BO-RING baseball and a boring season is upon the MLB fans of Wisconsin.

Performing as I expected. It's Ryan Braun (.309, 14 HR, 36 RBI) and eight guys whose names could be replaced with "Lorem Ispum" on the scorecard and nobody would be the wiser. Whatever magic they captured last year appears to be gone.

Very little has changed since the one-quarter mark, so I will say very little about the Brewers. My only commentary is that the bullpen, save for K-Rod (Frankie Rodriguez - 1-4, 3.96 ERA, 17 Hld) conjures up phrases like, "abject failure", "comic-tragic", and "abominable".

The starting pitching is uninspired and the bullpen is an absolute liability. This team is a bullpen away from being in the mix...next year.


Pittsburgh Pirates (67-57, 3rd place) – I think the Pirates continue with the improvement they made last year. However, pitching is a massive liability. I think they don’t even sniff either of the NL Wild Card spots.

Did I say "pitching" was a massive liability? I meant "hitting". I whiffed on the means (much like the Pirates have in many of their at-bats this year), but not the ends. Respectable record...not on track to be in the playoff race. James McDonald (4-2, 2.20 ERA, 63 Ks) should be in the early National League Cy Young discussion and Andrew McCutchen (.331, 8 HR, 21 RBI) continues to be a shining star. It won't be enough.

Don't get too excited, Pirates Fan! You guys were near the top of the division at this time last year. I, personally, would love to see the Pirates return to the playoffs for the first time in 20 years. I think it would be good for baseball. The problem is that I think the 2012 Pirates are just an improved version of the 2011 squad. 

Centerfielder Andrew McCutchen (.362, 18 HR, 60 RBI, 1.039 OPS) is a mid-season front runner for the National League MVP award. James McDonald (9-3, 2.37 ERA, 100 Ks) is a legitimate N.L. Cy Young Award candidate. The bullpen is probably one of the top five in the league, arguably top three. 

The vulnerabilities for the Pirates are that they are not getting enough innings from their starting rotation and other than McCutchen, they don't have a single big threat with the stick. In fact, other than Neil Walker (.291, 6 HR, 41 RBI), I wouldn't consider any of their hitters to be "above average".

You can win the National League without good hitting when you have great pitching. However, the Pirates' relievers are not going to have enough gas in the tank late in the season to support the anemic contribution of the starting rotation to the pitching workload. Playing in the same division with the Reds and Cardinals, the Pirates have a very tall order in the second half of the season.

I am not surprised that the Pirates fell out of first place. I am also not surprised that they are just a half game back of the Cardinals for the final Wild Card spot. Their hitting, particularly for power, has gotten much better since the All-Star break. That is the benefit of being a team with young players struggling with the stick and veterans struggling. It is hard to teach an old dog new tricks, but young Bucs (pun intended) can be coached up. It is working. However, they need more low-run innings from their starters if they expect to overtake the Cardinals and clinch the final playoff spot.


Houston Astros – (39-85, 6th place) MY TEAM! THE ASTROS!!! Gonna be another long year…. Gonna get even better when next year when they move into the same American League division as the two time A.L. champs. If I had an Astros crystal ball, I think I’d break it after looking into it.

The Astros are much improved over last year. They have a legitimate budding star in shortstop Jose Altuve (.309, 3 HR, 18 RBI) and a pitching staff that appears to be developing nicely. Keep an eye on this team. They could be next year's Washington Nationals.

These guys found a way back into the cellar when the Cubs had the cellar secured like a bank vault. The lineup is laced with developing, but very inexperienced hitters who are going to take time before solving National League pitching. What I would find absolutely laughable were I not a fan is that the bullpen has dubbed itself "The Regulators", complete with Warren G intro music at Minute Maid Park when they enter the game. 

REGULATE WHAT? The audience's bowel movements? Because that bullpen is CRAP!

I can only stand in absolute awe of the incompetence that is the play of the 2012 Houston Astros. The batting is awful, the fielding is awful, the bullpen is awful, the starting pitching was "not good" but has since been gutted via trades and is awful, and the managing is awful. I am in awe.


Chicago Cubs – (47-76, 5th place) They were bad last year. Their bats have gotten worse. Their sub standard pitching is about the same. Enjoy the cellar, Cubbies!

Stick a fork in 'em...again. They're done...again

The Cubs Forrest Gumped their way out of the N.L. Central's urinal by accidenting their way to winning nine of their last 13 games. Enjoy the peek of sunlight, Cubs Fan because it won't last long. Back into the cellar you go after the All-Star break.

The Astros will not be in the division next year, so the Cubs will be in the cellar at years' end, in a manner of speaking. However, I cannot help but notice that General Manager Theo Epstein is very slowly cleansing the Cubs of their toxic assets (contracts) and bringing in some young talent. I don't think I will be ripping on the Cubs two years from now. That is a L..O..N..G time for long suffering Cubs Fan, though.

The Big Red Machine rolls on! 2

N.L. West

San Francisco Giants (69-55, 1st place) – Buster Posey is back. Their pitchers are beastly. Arizona was a fluke last year.

Posey (.294, 6 HR, 27 RBI) looks great. Melky Cabrera (.373, 4 HR, 25 RBI) appears to be having a breakout season, in the 8th year of his career. The pitchers continue to be beastly except for the one person who one would expect to be a beast, Tim Lincecum (2-6, 5.82 ERA, 1.57 WHIP), who has been abysmal. They aren't turning hits into runs and it is weighing them down.

Two things have to change if the Giants want to stop this tit-for-tat with the Los Angeles Dodgers and firmly take over 1st place in the West. 

1) They absolutely must find some kind of power in their lineup. Their brand of small ball is as efficient as a man trying to dig a grave with a tablespoon. 

2) Tim Lincecum (3-10, 6.42 ERA, 102 K) has got to get some control of his pitches. There are 16 year old boys who could be dropped in a hot tub with Megan Fox, wearing nothing but a skimpy white t-shirt, with more control of themselves than Lincecum has had of his pitch location this year.

They are leading the division for now but their N.L. West division title lives are on Death Watch in the wake of Melky Cabrera's (.346, 11 HR, 60 RBI) 50 game suspension for the use of performance enhancing drugs. The Wild Card will probably be in play because the Giants are a talented team, but I think the Los Angeles Dodgers will leap frog them for the division.

Los Angeles Dodgers (67-58, 2nd place) – Magic Johnson and Don Mattingly – two sports icons of the 80s…both invested in the Dodgers’ fate…both may be looking for a window to jump out of by September. I have read a lot of speculation of how much better they are supposed to be, but I just don’t see it in their lineup. Both men had to leave their sports due to medical ailments that are aggravated by stress. WHY oh WHY did they get hooked up with the Dysfunctional Dodgers?

Donnie Baseball for Manager of the Year...Magic Johnson's group for Executive(s) of the Year, if there is such an award. This team finds a way to keep winning. There is no way I could run down all of the things this team is doing right in one paragraph. This is great for baseball and I couldn't be happier to be wrong.

It appears that the Dodgers have put the brakes on a vicious slump in June, winning four of their first five games in July. In spite of the hard knocks experienced last month, the Dodgers pitching staff is among the best in baseball. Their hitters exercise good plate discipline but have limited power. MVP candidate Matt Kemp (.355, 12 HR, 28 RBI) cannot return from the D.L. (hamstring) soon enough for Dodgers Fan.

Everyone gets a little help from Lady Luck in any noteworthy accomplishment. The Dodgers got it when the Giants' Melky Cabrera was suspended for the rest of the regular season. They wasted a golden opportunity to pull away from San Francisco by getting swept in their three game series with the arch rival. Still, The Giants' batting order lacked pop to begin with and I simply do not see how they sustain the division lead through the end of September after removing a .346 hitter with respectable power numbers from the lineup. 

The Dodgers have shown some life in their bats in August. Should that continue, barring any injuries to Matt Kemp (.331, 17 HR, 53 RBI, 73 GP) or Andre Ethier (.278, 12 HR, 69 RBI), I think L.A., Magic Johnson, Don Mattingly and company with the West.

Arizona Diamondbacks (64-61, 3rd place) – The irony is that the Snakes have the talent and the schedule to recapture the lighting in a bottle they caught in 2011. I am still a believer the lightning doesn’t strike in the same place twice.

No lightning...no bottle...no striking. In fact...not a lot of strikeouts from the pitching staff. Wade Miley (6-1, 2.41, 32 Ks) has been a pleasant exception to that trend.

The Snakes keep hanging around and hanging around within striking distance. I don't think they have the pitching to make the second half push they need, but much stranger things have happened.

They are still lurking in the Wild Card race, just four games back of the Cardinals. The pitching has quietly tightened its grip. Their schedule is not very difficult down the stretch (16 of their remaining games are against the Padres, Rockies, and Cubs). The Diamondbacks could be the snake-in-the-grass in the National League, pun intended...competitors beware! 

Colorado Rockies – (49-73, 5th place) Decent bats plus suspect pitching plus high altitude equals shootouts which equals a worn out bullpen. That won’t fly in the West for 162 games.

They are pounding my Astros, en route to a four game sweep, as I write this, so perhaps I should temper my criticism. Or not.... 

They can bang out runs, especially at home, and especially when Carlos Gonzalez (.332, 14 HR, 44 RBI) is involved. They can't pitch their way out of a wet paper bag. When 49 year old Jamie Moyer (2-5, 5.70, 36 Ks) is second on your team in strikeouts and innings pitched, you've got problems!

The Rockies have the best starting lineup, one through eight, in the N.L. West (one of the better ones in the National League) and the worst pitching staff of the decade, possibly the worst I have ever seen in my entire life through one half of a season.   

Their ERA might improve if they only play eight men in the field and put a pitching machine on the mound.


San Diego Padres – (56-70, 4th place) They have an outfielder named Blanks, which is what they can expect to be hung on the scoreboard after many of their halves of innings this year.

Endison Volquez (2-5, 3.46 ERA, 55 Ks) is having his best season in years...on the worst team one may ever witness. He must be missing Cincinnati.

I think the Rockies hitters could come to the plate with wiffle ball bats and out hit the Padres. As for the pitching, perhaps if this were college baseball the Padres could get by with just two legitimate major league starters on their roster - Endison Volquez (5-7, 3.52 ERA, 98 Ks) and Clayton Richard (6-9, 3.91 ERA). They sure are playing like a college team.

I am curious to see where this team might be in a year if they continue to bring in and develop high-potential pitching talent. For now, though, if the Padres hit the ball and nobody cares, does it make a sound?

Tomorrow: the American League!

Melky Cabrera, meet Bill Duke. 3

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1) Image from www.upi.com
2) Image from www.senorpez.com
3) Image from www.bleacherreport.com