Tonight is the first round of the NFL draft. There is often drama, excitement, and some surprises. There will be no surprises in the first two picks. The Indianapolis Colts are selecting quarterback Andrew Luck from Stanford and the Washington Redskins will select Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin, III. After that, it is anyone’s guess.
THRILL OF THE THIRD PICK
I have heard nothing but pure speculation on the fate of the third pick in tonight’s draft, currently owned by the Minnesota Vikings. Will the Vikings keep the pick? Will they trade down? Who will eventually acquire the pick if they trade down? If they keep the pick, who will they select? If the Vikings trade the pick, who will be selected? Will Trent Richardson (RB – Alabama) go third? Will it be Ryan Tannehill (QB – Texas A&M)? Will the draft for position need and pick Matt Kalil (OT – USC)?
Never before can I recall a third pick in the draft with so much variability of the eventual outcome (team selecting and player selected). Trent Richardson, by most accounts I have heard, is the most coveted player available with the third pick. Tannehill is the best quarterback available for selection with the third pick. Minnesota already has a hot prospect at quarterback in Christian Ponder and a perennial All-Pro at running back in Adrian Peterson.
The Vikings have the third pick in the draft for a reason: they were very bad last year. A stud offensive tackle, like Kalil, would help the Vikings, but they need players (plural)! It is possible Kalil may be available a few spots down. I am not a general manager, nor do I play one on television, but if I were the Vikings GM, I would trade down for additional bodies.
If I had a quarter for every time, in the last week, that I heard that Alabama running back Trent Richardson is the best overall player available (after Luck and Griffin), I would have free lunch today. But the key is need. There is a ton of talent at the top of this draft.
The Vikings, Buccaneers, St. Louis Rams, Jacksonville Jaguars, Carolina Panthers, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, and Seattle Seahawks (holders of the number 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, and 12 picks, respectively) appear to have decided upon their starting running back positions. The Miami Dolphins, holding the 8th pick, are badly in need of a quarterback. In essence, if the Browns do not pick Richardson with the fourth selection and no one trades up to jump ahead of the Dolphins to pick Tannehill, Richardson, the man viewed by many as the best player available with the third selection, could fall completely out of the top 10!
Michael Brockers (DT – LSU) has been projected to go in the 15th-25th range in the first round, from most of the reports I have read. He is another freakish physical specimen. I have also read the words “sleeper” and “biggest surprise” when describing his upside. When players receive that kind of buzz, particularly when it is shortly before the draft, it is not uncommon for them to be selected significantly higher than projected.
Brandon Weeden (QB – Oklahoma State) has demonstrated that he can perform in a pass oriented offense. There are three concerns I have that make me question whether Weeden will go in the first round at all (he has been widely projected to be a late first round pick).
First, Weeden is 28 years old. While maturity is a requisite at the QB position and Weeden’s age (and track record) lend to that, he will not have as long of an NFL career as most quarterbacks can have. He will also be under tremendous pressure to perform immediately. He cannot just blossom in his third, fourth, or fifth year like many quarterbacks because he will be in his thirties by then.
Second, Weeden played in the Big XII, a conference in which playing tough defense is more of a suggestion or a guideline than an actual expectation. Fair or not, a coach or GM may discount some of the video game like numbers he put up at times.
Third, while I don’t anticipate it happening, I have heard a lot of speculation that the Dolphins may pass on Tannehill, stick with Matt Moore at QB in 2012, and pick a player at another position with less risk. Should that happen, Weeden, who all but certainly will be picked after Tannehill, might be waiting until Friday before he can tell his real estate agent where to look.
CAN’T WAIT!
Regardless of who goes where and what happens, I expect to be entertained tonight. The draft is always full of drama and, frankly, I always learn something new about football, the teams, and the personnel every year. In the words of Bart Scott:
CAN'T WAIT!
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THRILL OF THE THIRD PICK
I have heard nothing but pure speculation on the fate of the third pick in tonight’s draft, currently owned by the Minnesota Vikings. Will the Vikings keep the pick? Will they trade down? Who will eventually acquire the pick if they trade down? If they keep the pick, who will they select? If the Vikings trade the pick, who will be selected? Will Trent Richardson (RB – Alabama) go third? Will it be Ryan Tannehill (QB – Texas A&M)? Will the draft for position need and pick Matt Kalil (OT – USC)?
Never before can I recall a third pick in the draft with so much variability of the eventual outcome (team selecting and player selected). Trent Richardson, by most accounts I have heard, is the most coveted player available with the third pick. Tannehill is the best quarterback available for selection with the third pick. Minnesota already has a hot prospect at quarterback in Christian Ponder and a perennial All-Pro at running back in Adrian Peterson.
The Vikings have the third pick in the draft for a reason: they were very bad last year. A stud offensive tackle, like Kalil, would help the Vikings, but they need players (plural)! It is possible Kalil may be available a few spots down. I am not a general manager, nor do I play one on television, but if I were the Vikings GM, I would trade down for additional bodies.
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| Tannehill's fiance, Lauren Ufer. And...Tannehill is expected to land in MIAMI!?!? Watch your back, Ryan! 5 |
I NEED SOME MO!
Morris “Mo” Claiborne (CB – LSU) could end up in a variety of places. I am biased because, as those of you who read regularly know, I graduated from LSU. It has been speculated that Claiborne could go as high as third. I would love to see that happen. I’m not counting on it.
Claiborne has freakish physical skills, superior ball instincts, and incredibly sticky hands for a defender. I expect him to be a star in his rookie year. The hurdle to Claiborne going third is that the Vikings hold the pick. A star cornerback would fit the Vikings’ needs, but they have glaring needs all over the field. “Mo players” is “mo better” for the Vikes, which is why I don’t see them picking Mo third.
The next two teams in the draft are the Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Claiborne would be a welcome addition to both rosters, but I doubt that either team would make a sacrifice to trade up for him. I would be stunned to see Claiborne go lower than seventh. His equation has a lot of rapidly moving parts.
| If you throw once against Mo, you won't throw "no mo'"! 3 |
WHO NEEDS A RUNNING BACK?
If I had a quarter for every time, in the last week, that I heard that Alabama running back Trent Richardson is the best overall player available (after Luck and Griffin), I would have free lunch today. But the key is need. There is a ton of talent at the top of this draft.
The Vikings, Buccaneers, St. Louis Rams, Jacksonville Jaguars, Carolina Panthers, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, and Seattle Seahawks (holders of the number 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, and 12 picks, respectively) appear to have decided upon their starting running back positions. The Miami Dolphins, holding the 8th pick, are badly in need of a quarterback. In essence, if the Browns do not pick Richardson with the fourth selection and no one trades up to jump ahead of the Dolphins to pick Tannehill, Richardson, the man viewed by many as the best player available with the third selection, could fall completely out of the top 10!
I think this is unlikely. Need can often be the worst evaluator of talent. It can cause the most rational of coaches and GMs to artificially inflate or deflate the value of a prospect. Even if the Browns pass on Richardson to address another need, Richardson simply offers too much value to be allowed to fall through the cracks. A savvy team could easily pick him and trade down, after the fact, to a team with pressing needs at running back.
| Break a leg, Trent (wish he did in January...before Bama beat the hell out of LSU)! 2 |
STOCK COULD RISE…STOCK COULD FALL
Brandon Weeden (QB – Oklahoma State) has demonstrated that he can perform in a pass oriented offense. There are three concerns I have that make me question whether Weeden will go in the first round at all (he has been widely projected to be a late first round pick).
First, Weeden is 28 years old. While maturity is a requisite at the QB position and Weeden’s age (and track record) lend to that, he will not have as long of an NFL career as most quarterbacks can have. He will also be under tremendous pressure to perform immediately. He cannot just blossom in his third, fourth, or fifth year like many quarterbacks because he will be in his thirties by then.
Second, Weeden played in the Big XII, a conference in which playing tough defense is more of a suggestion or a guideline than an actual expectation. Fair or not, a coach or GM may discount some of the video game like numbers he put up at times.
Third, while I don’t anticipate it happening, I have heard a lot of speculation that the Dolphins may pass on Tannehill, stick with Matt Moore at QB in 2012, and pick a player at another position with less risk. Should that happen, Weeden, who all but certainly will be picked after Tannehill, might be waiting until Friday before he can tell his real estate agent where to look.
| One Oklahoma State student's eye candy is Brandon Weeden's jail bait! 4 |
CAN’T WAIT!
Regardless of who goes where and what happens, I expect to be entertained tonight. The draft is always full of drama and, frankly, I always learn something new about football, the teams, and the personnel every year. In the words of Bart Scott:
CAN'T WAIT!
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