Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics - April 16, 2014

The NBA Playoffs start this weekend. With the marathon run to the NBA Championship set to begin, you can expect to be fed a healthy dose of basketball statistics. The team that does this first can expect to win. A team without a player who can do that has never advanced past the second round. Etcetera, etcetera….

The Daily Hat Trick has a couple of factoids you can toss out over a frosty beverage while checking out the playoff action with friends, family and coworkers. Get ready to wow the guys with your vault of useless trivia. It’s, “Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics”!

THE MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES HAVE PLAYERS IN THE NBA’S TOP 5 IN SCORING, ASSISTS, REBOUNDS, AND STEALS

As star-driven as the sport of basketball is, as much as a single player can elevate an entire team, it is mind-blowing that a team can have top five league leaders in four of the five major individual performance statistics (points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks) and not only be in 10^th place in its conference and out of the playoffs, but no even have a winning record. That is the position that the Minnesota Timberwolves find themselves in (again). It begs the question: are Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio wasting their talents in the Twin Cities?

Wolves big man and three time All-Star Kevin Love averages 26 points per game and 13 rebounds per game, fourth and third in the NBA, respectively. Point guard Ricky Rubio dishes out nine dimes per game and steals the ball 2.3 times on a typical evening, placing him fifth and second, respectively in those categories. With players who are so good, how can the Wolves be so consistently bad?

Part of the T-Wolves’ misfortune is being in the talent-superior Western Conference in a division loaded with All-Star talent. The Northwest division is home to Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook of the Oklahoma City Thunder, a perennial front runner for the Western Conference championship. Also in the division are the Portland Trailblazers with 2013 Rookie of the Year Damian Lillard and All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge. Their regular season schedule is simply weighted to play more of the league’s better teams.

The other problem is that the Timberwolves have a mediocre to below average supporting cast around their two stars. In spite of being in the NBA Draft Lottery year-after-year, the Wolves have not parleyed their higher picks into higher talent. The 2014 version of the Wolves is an undersized front court (Love notwithstanding) with players who can shoot but intimidate nobody defensively.

The 2015 season may be Love’s last dance in Minnesota, with the seventh year of his contract approaching. Love will be an unrestricted free agent after next season. The odds of Love staying in place shrink with each loss.

Lakers, Knicks... get ready to start your bidding! 1

MICHAEL JORDAN'S BEST STATISTICAL SEASON DID NOT EARN HIM THE MVP, OR ANYTHING ELSE

We know the narrative on MJ: 14-time All-Star, six NBA titles, five-time MVP, first ballot Hall of Famer…I would wager he is the consensus greatest basketball player of all time; he has my vote. I can only imagine that those of you who are basketball fans but not stat geeks would assume that in the best measurable year of the career of arguably the greatest player ever would have earned him the award for the Most Valuable Player for that season.

However, anyone not digging inside the numbers might regard the 1989 NBA season as a footnote in the career of Michael Jordan. He didn’t win the MVP. His team, the Chicago Bulls, did not win anything of note – They didn’t even win the Eastern Conference; in fact, they were next-to-last in the Central Division. Mike’s success was not even enjoyed vicariously by his Head Coach, Doug Collins. Collins was fired after the season.

While the path of Jordan’s career would trend sharply upward very quickly with the Bulls’ promotion of Phil Jackson to Head Coach the next season and winning his first NBA Championship ring in the year after, Jordan’s box scores never peaked more than during the valley that was the Bulls’ 1989 season. Jordan averaged 33 points, 8 rebounds, and 8 assists per game from the shooting guard position that year.  He also played over 40 minutes per night and averaged a tick under 3 steals and a blocked shot per game while shooting 55% from the field and 85% from the line, at or close to career highs.

For casual fans who only care about wins, losses, and what they seen on the highlight reels, those…stats…are...ridiculous! Kevin Durant of the Oklahoma City Thunder has a stat line is similar but, across the board, slightly lesser that the aforementioned MJ stat line from 1989 and he is all but certain to win the 2014 MVP award. 

It would make for great barber shop conversation about the modern NBA versus the "golden years" of the 80s and 90s. How much more physical the play was back then.... How much more intense the competition was among the star players.... By the way, the winner of the MVP in 1989? Some Johnny come lately named Earvin "Magic" Johnson (23 PPG, 13 APG, 8 RPG, 91% FT - led the NBA).

He had to...taste...defeat a few more times before reaching basketball's summit. 2

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1) Image from www.nypost.com

2) Image from www.terapeak.com

MVP Talk, Part 2 - The Bridesmaids

On Wednesday, we looked at the three men I think are the front runners for the NBA's Most Valuable Player award, Derrick Rose of the Chicago Bulls, LeBron James of the Miami Heat, and Dwight Howard of the Orlando Magic. At the moment, I think those are the only three players with a realistic chance of actually finishing first in the MVP voting and winning the award. The following are players that I think should, at least, be in the discussion for the MVP and given some consideration by voters.

Kevin Durant – SF, Oklahoma City Thunder (28 PPG, 7 RPG)

For the second straight year, Kevin Durant will win the scoring title. He is too far ahead of LeBron James, with 20 games remaining, to lose the lead in any realistic scenario. Scoring (or preventing it) is the entire point of every single play in basketball, except for the late-game intentional foul phase. And Durant is not a one dimensional player.

Defenders should feel a little nervous when their eyes send this image to their brains. 1

However, the Thunder are in fourth place and there are other players with comparable stats who have “paid their dues”, so-to-speak, ahead of Durant. For that reason, I do not think Durant has a shot at actually winning the award. He does, however, warrant discussion. I also think it is a matter of time before Durant becomes the league’s MVP. Frankly, barring injury or insanity, I think it is a matter of time (albeit a very long time…I currently have no children but could be a grandparent by that time) before Durant gives an acceptance speech in Springfield.


Dirk Nowitzki – PF, Dallas Mavericks (23 PPG, 7 RPG, 53% FG, 43% 3PT)

The 2007 MVP winner is quietly having a career season. Dirk will probably not win the award for a number of reasons. He is not among the top 5 in scoring. He has already won the award. And his trademark absence on defense continues to be present (play on words intended).

What I find remarkable, and why I think voters should at least consider Nowitzki, is that one of his bigger weaknesses throughout his career (and I use the term “weakness” very loosely) is that he shoots the ball more often than he should at times. In 2011, his field goal and three point shooting percentages are both 5% above his career averages in those categories.

In addition, the Mavericks are in second place in the Western Conference. When Dirk missed three weeks of action between late December and mid January, the Mavs appeared to be going down in a ball of flames. Re-enter Dirk…Dallas had won 19 of its last 21 games, as of Wednesday morning. That isn’t a misprint. Dallas was 19-2 since January 22 at the time Part 1 of this series was published. Dallas has played its way into a remote possibility of overtaking the San Antonio Spurs, who have had the best record in the NBA since the beginning of the season. If that doesn’t warrant MVP consideration, what does?

Dirk is not likely to party like it's 2007, but he should at least get a look. 2

Kobe Bryant – SG, Los Angeles Lakers (25 PPG, 5 APG, 5 RPG)

Here is the deal with Kobe: I expect him to have no shot at winning the MVP award. That still does not mean that the prevailing opinion, at the time the award is announced, will not be the Kobe is still not the best player in the game (or, at least one of the best two along with LeBron). Kobe has multiple factors working against him in 2011 that I believe doom any chance the Black Mamba has of actually winning the award.

• He already won the award in 2008.

• The Lakers, the two time defending champs, are in third place in the Western Conference, very distant from the first place San Antonio Spurs.

• There is nothing exceptional about Kobe’s statistics, relative to his career.

The irony is that I think Bryant is more valuable to his team this season than at any time during the Lakers’ current championship run. The Lakers have been relatively inconsistent this season, losing head-scratching games in questionable manners to vastly inferior opponents. Kobe, on the other hand, has been a rock. His level of excellence has been constant and his leadership has repeatedly shaken the Lakers out of mini-funks this year. All of that said, the award can only go to one person and I think that several others stand out a bit too much for Kobe to have a shot of winning the MVP.


Kevin Love – PF, Minnesota Timberwolves (21 PPG, 16 RPG)

Kevin Love is the unequivocal MVP of any fantasy basketball league. However, Love will not win the real award for one, and only one, reason: his team SUCKS. Yes the MVP is an individual award, but that individual, clearly, is expected to elevate his team. In basketball, unlike football or baseball, one individual can potentially make a significant impact on the win loss column. For examples, see the aforementioned Dirk Nowitzki example or simply look at this season’s Cleveland Cavaliers, without LeBron James.

Kevin Love, 2011 (left) and Moses Malone, 1979 (right) 3

If there ever were an honorable mention for the MVP, though, Love deserves serious consideration. Any man in the 4 position giving you 20 points per night is a rare and precious commodity and if Wolves General Manager David Kahn demonstrated a personnel IQ greater than that of a grape, the Wolves would, minimally, be a .500 team with Love’s scoring contribution alone. Any player in any position giving you 16 rebounds per night is special, by any standard. He is a defensive force that will compel your opponent to choose his shot very carefully and effectively restrict where an opponent can and cannot move the ball while still being an effective threat to score points.

Finally, Kevin Love has recorded a (post 1976 ABA-NBA merger) record 52 consecutive double-doubles (eclipsing Moses Malone's 1979 streak). In the modern game, that is almost unbelievable. Considering that Love is an easy player to target (as no opponent is targeting anyone else on the floor for the Timberwolves) for double teaming and boxing out, this feat is even MORE impressive.

On a side note, Moses Malone questioned, in a recent interview, how impressive Love’s streak actually is. Malone implied that players, fans, and the media were more stat-focused today than during his time. Other critics have cites that Love’s performance has not led to winning for his team.

My response? I would like to see any person walking the Earth, pro athlete or otherwise, go out and focus every iota of attention of recording the statistics necessary to constitute a double-double, regardless of the impact on the team or the game. Stat focused or not, that person is not going to do it 52 straight times, which is why it has not happened, post merger. Also, I think Moses Malone had less of an uphill battle performing (whether he was counting his points and rebounds or not) on a playoff caliber Houston Rockets team.

To paraphrase Los Angeles Lakers coach Phil Jackson, give the guy some (bleeping) credit.


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