Quarterback Shuffle

It appears that all of the dust has settled from all of the major quarterback free agency signings. Now that the big horseshoe had dropped, in this case a Colt turned Bronco, let’s have a look at how the quarterbacking landscape has changed in the NFL.


MATT FLYNN

Former team: Green Bay Packers
Current team: Seattle Seahawks
Terms: $26 million/3 years; $10 million guaranteed

Impact on former team: The Packers have, arguably, the best quarterback in the NFL, certainly top five, in Aaron Rodgers. Matt Flynn has filled in almost seamlessly during the limited opportunities he has had. The Packers need to groom another highly reliable backup.

Impact on current team: The sample size of Flynn’s NFL work is very limited, but what little exists is extremely impressive. Flynn set a Packers team record with 480 passing yards and 6 touchdown passes in Week 17 of the 2011 NFL season on January 1, 2012.

The Seahawks allowed their long time starter, Matt Hasselbeck, who led the Seahawks to Super Bowl XL, to leave the team in free agency in 2011. Hasselbeck was replaced by Tarvaris Jackson (3,091 pass yds., 14 TD, 13 INT, 60% comp.), who as “okay” in leading the team to a 7-9 record. Flynn offers upside and the Seahawks are counting on that upside.

Get ready to trade that winter gear for rain boots, Matt. 3

ALEX SMITH

Former team: San Francisco 49ers
Current team: San Francisco 49ers
Terms: $24 million/3 years; $9 million guaranteed

Impact on former team: The former team and current team are the same, but flirtations with Peyton Manning by the 49ers threatened to end the relationship between Smith and the 49ers. Smith was reportedly negotiating with the Miami Dolphins while the 49ers were attempting to woo Manning.

Impact on current team: There may be some hurt feelings on the part of Smith due to the team’s exploration into replacing Smith with Peyton Manning. Smith knows that he needs to brush this off quickly and get down to business. Smith has a breakthrough year in 2011 under the tutelage of Head Coach and former standout NFL quarterback Jim Harbaugh. He became more efficient, and made far fewer mistakes.

The result was that the 49ers were one score away from reaching the Super Bowl last year. Smith needs to come in, continue grinding, and continue to focus on improving in order to give the 49ers a chance to take the next step in 2012.

Smith can now pick up where he left off last year. 2

PEYTON MANNING

Former team: Indianapolis Colts
Current team: Denver Broncos
Terms: $96 million/5 years; $18 million - $58 million in guarantees

Impact on former team: Manning is the modern Colts franchise. He is the face, spirit, heart and soul of the team and has been since 1998. Fans, understandably, reacted to his release like it was a death.

The reason Manning was released is because he has no more than five years left of his career (probably three at a high level) and he is coming off of four neck surgeries. His 2012 salary would have blown the Colts’ salary cap to bits. The Colts have the first pick in the 2012 NFL Draft with Stanford’s Andrew Luck available for less than half of the annual cost of Manning. Luck is a player whose long-term potential, as evaluated by nearly every NFL college scout, is comparable that of Manning’s career accomplishments.

The short term impact of this move will depend entirely upon Luck’s initial success in Indianapolis.

Impact on current team: The Denver Broncos won their division and advanced to the divisional round of the playoffs by beating the Pittsburgh Steelers, a team expected by many to be in the AFC Championship game and possibly the Super Bowl, with Tim Tebow at quarterback. Tebow was the least accurate passer in the NFL last year. What do you think will happen with a future Hall of Famer whose absence transformed a 10-6 division title winning colts team into a 2-14 train wreck with the worst record in the NFL?

1

TIM TEBOW

Former team: Denver Broncos
Current team: New York Jets
Terms: Tebow and a 7th round pick traded to the Jets in exchange for a 4th and a 6th round pick.

Impact on former team: The day that the news of the Petyon Manning decision broke, the Hat Trick ran a piece describing how the jettisoned quarterback, Tim Tebow (not Manning) was the hotter trend on Twitter. That tend did not cool off much in the coming days. Speculation was rampant over where Tebow would play next year. The Tebow Mania is gone from Denver and is now the Jets blessing/curse to manage. Strictly from a football standpoint, the Broncos got much better and more stable at quarterback.

Impact on current team: Head Coach Rex Ryan’s New York Jets were already the greatest circus since the Ringling Brothers. Tebow’s arrival has enabled Ryan’s Jets to pass Ringling.

This is either going to be really good or really bad. Tebow is a great football player and athlete who can run well and be inserted into a number of diverse game situations. The problem is that current Jets’ quarterback Mark Sanchez, who has endured his share of close public scrutiny during his three years with the Jets, now has to contend with a fan base that may start screaming for Tebow as soon as the Jets hit some hard times in the 2012 season.

On the other hand, Jets offensive coordinator Tony Sporano like to run the Wildcat formation, which fits Tebow’s skill set well. In addition, Tebow has proven he can help win games in the NFL and is an upgrade to the Jets’ backup QB position. Time will tell. I hope Tebow can handle it. New York is a L..O..N..G way from Gainesville, Florida, where he played his college ball.

Sanchez: You don't have a PRAYER of taking my job!
Tebow: Ehhh...I think I do. 4

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1) Image from http://sports.yahoo.com
2) Image from www.allbayareasports.com
3) Image from www.startribune.com
4) Image from www.boston.com

The Best and Worst of Must See Sports

Harry Potter's hat probably works better.

The Daily Hat Trick has offered its insightful commentary and prognostications on the biggest sporting events of each week in Must See Sports. Since this past December, Hat Trick readers can expect to see a heaping pile of…predictions and more every Thursday. Sometimes my projections are accurate. Other times…not so much.

I use the word “advantage” instead of “prediction” or “winner” at the end of each Must See summary. If I am ever wrong, which is every week, a reader can never say I steered him in the wrong direction and influenced him into making a bad bet. There is a difference between thinking one participant in a sporting event has an advantage and declaring that the participant will win. In addition, the word “advantage” gives me enough face saving wiggle room to explain what the heck happened in case my expert analysis (and by “expert” I mean a guy who sits on his couch with the remote) goes horribly wrong.

Nonetheless, I have expressed some strongly worded expectations in some of the Must See summaries. Some have hit the bulls eye and cause me to give thought to sports forecasting as a back up career. Others have landed my foot so far in my mouth that I could floss my teeth with shoe laces.

Here are some of the best and worst of Must See Sports:


BEST

Thursday, March 17, 2011

"NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament – Second Round

Southwest Region
(5) Vanderbilt Commodores vs (12) Richmond Spiders

The “12-5” upsets seem to be an annual tradition in the big dance, and Vandy is ripe for the picking. Vanderbilt is simply not consistent and they have trouble putting away opponents. Richmond is a quality mid-major, winners of the Atlantic 10 Tournament, with single-digit losses and wins over #8 Purdue and #25 Temple during the regular season. This could be a problem for the SEC school.

Advantage: Richmond"

How this made the "best": Every Joe in every office everywhere in America who takes part in a March Madness bracket pool picks upsets in the NCAA Tournament every year. Most of them are wrong.

The reason one team is seeded significantly higher than another is because, through out the season, the team with the higher seed has demonstrated that it has a significant advantage over a lesser seeded team. To correctly pick an upsets, especially one with a seeding gap as wide as a “12-5”, one has to observe signs that the higher seed was overrated and the lower seed is underrated. That is often easier said than done.

Nonetheless, it looks like the proper signs were read here at the Hat Trick. Richmond not only upset fifth seeded Vanderbilt, but also won in the third round of the tournament to advance to the Sweet Sixteen. The Spiders were more than a one trick pony, making me look like I know what I am talking about!

The Richmond mascot looks more like a roach than a spider, to me. 1

February 11, 2011

"Los Angeles Clippers at Cleveland Cavaliers

This may be the ultimate trap game. First of all, if you are a Clippers fan, you have to be thrilled that the expression “trap game” is being used in reference to your team at all. It means that there are actual expectations and that your team is expected to win. I cannot recall the last time this was the case for L.A.’s “other team”. Thank Blake Griffin for making this team relevant, at any level, again.

The Clippers have a winning record in calendar year 2011 and, frankly, if they played as well on the road as they do at home, they might be in the Western Conference playoff race. With two months remaining in the season and the always existing possibility a hot run by the Clippers and a cold streak by the Utah Jazz, Portland Trailblazers, or Nuggets, a playoff run is only slightly far-fetched.

So why is an inter-conference matchup of two sub .500 teams “must see”? Because you could be witnessing history! A (27th consecutive) loss by the Cavs would give them the dubious distinction of having the longest losing streak in the history of all major American professional sports, eclipsing the 26 consecutive losses by the 1976-1977 Buccaneers (random trivia – which team did the Buccaneers beat to snap the streak in ’77; hint: it was played in the Superdome...DOH!!!).

So why do I think this could be a trap? The Clippers DO play poorly on the road. The Cavaliers have been within striking distance of some respectable teams, late in games, lately. And nobody but nobody wants to be the biggest loser of all-time. Last, point guard Mo Williams, whose absence coincided with the Cavs play going from “bad” to “the word ‘bad’ would be offended”, practiced earlier this week and may return Friday, just in the nick of time to help spare Cleveland the ultimate embarrassment.

Advantage: Cavaliers (you read it HERE first, folks – and it will be deleted here first if Cleveland looses badly)"

How this made the "best": Why was a game between two NBA teams with Draft Lottery ping pong balls in their futures worthy of being “Must See”? Because history was on the line! The Cleveland Cavaliers had lost 26 consecutive games and were just one loss away from setting the record for most consecutive losses by a major North American professional sports franchise. The Los Angeles Clippers, with an injection of optimism from future Rookie of the Year Blake Griffin, were showing clear signs of improvement and had a winning record during the past month. Only a FOOL would pick the Cavaliers to win. Right? THAT’S…why they PLAY…the GAMES!


While the Cavs’ victory that evening does not necessarily preclude me from being a fool, I would not be made into one from my prediction. In my bold prediction, I left a disclaimer that it would be deleted if the Cavs were blown out. I am sure many Cavs fans are glad it remained in place.

Then-Clippers gurad Baron Davis got a taste of Cleveland. Now he gets a buffet. Davis was traded to the Cavs later in the season.  2

WORST

December 19, 2010

"New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers

This could be a titanic battle of possible Super Bowl contenders or another Patriots (11-2) landslide. The Packers (8-5) hopes for this Sunday Night Football matchup, and perhaps their entire season, likely hinges on the status of quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who suffered a concussion in last week's loss to the Detroit Lions. The Packers are at a slight disadvantage if Rodgers can go. With Matt Flynn at the controls, the Packers can chuck this game into the "L" column like real life patriots chucked 18th century British tea into the Boston Harbor.

Advantage: Patriots

How this made the "worst": This projection was correct on picking the winner, but way off on "why" and "how". I seldom missed Sunday Night Football last season, but I expected such a one sided game that I did not flip on the tube until a friend texted me and let me know that Flynn was having a breakout game. I had to eat my words as the Packers went from chucking this game into the “L” column with Flynn at the controls, as I expected, to nearly stealing this game from the Patriots “W” column.

Flynn passed for 251 yards and 3 touchdowns, giving the Pack the lead by six points in the fourth quarter. Alas, Tom Brady went “Tom Brady” and led the Patriots on two scoring drives for 10 points, giving New England a 4 point squeaker of a win. Regardless, Flynn made me eat my words and helped out his future free agency value immensely that night.

Several editorials were painting Flynn as the next Tom Brady after his performance against the Patriots. SLOW DOWN! 3

January 6, 2011

"New Orleans Saints (11-5) at Seattle Seahawks (7-9) (NBC)

This could be dubbed the "Life's Not Fair Bowl". The defending Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saints, with an 11-5 record, just one game back of the NFC's top seeded Atlanta Falcons, have to travel to Seattle, home of the NFC West Champion Seahawks, with 7 wins and 9 losses. REALLY??? You carry a 6-9 record into Week 17 and a team with 11 wins has to travel to see YOU to defend its championship. REALLY???

The Saints placed running backs Chris Ivory (the Ivory Tusk) and Pierre Thomas on injured reserve, ending their seasons. Reggie Bush faces his old college coach at USC, Pete Carroll. Seattle is at home. The Saints clearly play a half-step down when in cold weather. And Qwest Field may be the loudest outdoor stadium in the NFL. Okay, Seahawks Fan...dream over. Time to wake up.

Advantage: Saints"

How this made the "worst": Yeahhhhh. This one didn’t work out so well for me. Being a Saints fan, no doubt, influenced the tone of my synopsis of this game. Regardless, I never saw the Saints being on the losing end of a game against a team with a losing record (even if that team is at home) after putting up 36 points against that team. That is exactly what happened and the score looked closer than the game actually was. The final sprinkle of insult to injury: Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch broke several tackles, on a play that will be in highlight reels for many years to come, en route to the touchdown that put the game out of reach. Why tell you when I can show you?

NINE missed tackles? REALLY??? 4

I hope you all enjoy each edition of Must See sports. Just remember that I aim to entertain and inform. I’ll leave the predictions to the pros!


Don't forget to vote in the fan polls!

To advertise with The Daily Hat Trick, or to submit a guest column, please contact the ditor at eric@thedailyhattrick.info.

1) Image from indiatimes.com
2) Image from thegamingpost.com
3) Image from totalpackers.com
4) Video from YouTube