My original comments are in black. The current 2012 record and my one-quarter mark comments are in blue. My halfway mark comments are in green.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
N.L. East
Philadelphia Phillies (37-50, 5th place) – In 2010 and 2011, I said that MLB may as well skip to the World Series and hand the Phillies the National League pennant. Both years, the St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants reminded me: THAT’S WHY THEY PLAY THE GAMES. The addition of closer Jonathan Papelbon did not encourage me to change my ways. Not having completely learned my lesson, I’ll modify that to say that MLB may as well skip the regular season hand the Phillies the N.L. East division title.
Let me modify my early season remarks to say that Philadelphia had better get its last place butt in gear. That said, they are only 3 games back, so I am sticking with my pre-season expectation that they will win the N.L. East.
The words: Whiskey Tango Foxtrot? The Phillies first half debacle defies all logic and reason. Cliff Lee's (1-5, 3.98 ERA, 98 Ks) inability to bribe his way to a win until last week and the overall ineptitude of the starting rotation as a unit is a big reason. The absolute incompetence of the middle relievers and their inability to keep the ball in the yard is another reason. And the absence of Ryan Howard from the lineup until this past weekend due to injury is a third factor. I will not say, "Stick a fork in them" because this team does have the talent and experience to make a furious second half run. Just don't hold your breath, Phillies Fan.
Washington Nationals (49-34, 1st place) – With some big offseason moves the last two seasons and the return of a healthy Stephen Strasburg the Nationals are the Detroit Lions pre-season pick of Major League Baseball. If they stay healthy, I expect them to be second in the East and to be in the Wild Card race.
Many said the Nationals were a year away from making a serious run for the post season. Not I! Then again, even a broken clock is right twice per day.
The Washington Nationals franchise has played 43 seasons of baseball prior to 2012, dating back to their inception as the Montreal Expos in 1969. In 43 years, this woeful franchise has only made the playoffs once, in 1981. It has only finished the season in first place twice, the 1981 season and in 1994. Unfortunately, there were no playoffs in 1994 due to the players' strike. During their seven seasons (prior to this year) as the Washington Nationals, the Nationals have finished last in five of those seasons (finishing fourth in 2007 and third last year).
Barack Obama deserves no credit, but change is coming to Washington. Their starting rotation of Stephen Strasburg (9-4, 2.82 ERA, 128 Ks), Gio Gonzalez (12-3, 2.92 ERA, 118 Ks), Jordan Zimmerman (5-6, 2.61 ERA), Edwin Jackson (5-4, 3.73 ERA), and Ross Detwiler (4-3, 3.43 ERA) is lock down, lights out, and just plain nasty! Rookie outfielder Bryce Harper (.282, 8 HR, 25 RBI) is the most exciting young player in the National League. Manager Davey Johnson looks like a genius who is ready to party like it's 1986, when he managed the New York Mets to the World Series championship.
Congress could solve the deficit by loading up on Nationals stock because this team is at the very beginning of a rapid rise to the top of the National League!
Atlanta Braves (46-39, 2nd place) – Top flight pitching and weak hitting equals a lot of regular season wins and no room for error in the playoffs.
Still waiting on that top flight pitching.... Braves Fan should send flowers and fruit baskets to Dan Uggla (.267, 8 HR, 31 RBI) and Martin Prado (.322, 3 HR, 22 RBI) for keeping the team within striking distance.
The Braves pitching really tightened up with a 3.53 ERA in the month of June. The bats also heated up, hitting .264 as a team and with a team on base plus slugging percentage of .728 last month. Jair Jurrgens' (3-2, 4.97 ERA) recent return to the rotation is going to give the Braves a tremendous boost in chasing down the surprising Nationals in the N.L. East.
Miami Marlins – (41-44, 4th place) Ozzie and the Fish are going to experience growing pains. I expect a circus in year one, but not a train wreck.
And...the Ozzie Circus started (almost) with the opening pitch of the season. However, there is a reason GMs put up with Ozzie; he's that good. Miami is off to as good of a start through 40-plus games as they have been in years.
The Fish have gone into a horrific tailspin since June and cannot seem to stop the bleeding. The formula is quite simple. Small ball plus small batting averages times wimpy power hitting divided by good starting pitching minus a bullpen that gives it up more than a punk in prison equals deep doo doo at the All-Star break.
Bullpens do not get better as the season progresses, they get worse because they get tired from increased wear and tear. The only sliver of light in the Marlins 'pen is that Heath Bell (2-4, 6.75 ERA, 19 SV, 8.5 K/9 IP) appears to have awaken and realized that he is a major league closer. Bell had a 3.86 ERA, no blown saves, and a whopping 12 strikeouts per nine innings pitched last month.
New York Mets – (46-40, 3rd place) There’s the train wreck!
Or perhaps not.... The Mets have been the epitome of "dysfunction" over the previous five seasons. Yet disciplined batting, anchored by a rejuvenated third baseman David Wright (.365, 5 HR, 30 RBI), and a healthy Johan Santana (2-2, 2.75 ERA, 60 Ks) leading the pitching staff, have the Mets looking like a legitimate MLB team!
The feel good story that is the 2012 Mets continues. The big story in Mets camp has been hard throwing knuckleballer R.A. Dicky (12-1, 2.40 ERA, 123 Ks, pitched a one-hitter in June). Using the words "hard throwing" and "knuckleballer" together are a big part of why he is such a big story. Third baseman David Wright (.351, 11 HR, 59 RBI, 1.004 OPS) is making another push for his first, ever batting title. Can the bullpen pick up its weight? That appears to be the only weakness on this team.
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| THE "HAAARPER"! 1 |
N.L. Central
Cincinnati Reds – (46-38, 2nd place) The opposite of the Atlanta Braves. If they can just tighten up their pitching to the tune of 0.30 earned runs per game, I think they win the division. I love the promotion of Aroldis Chapman to the top of the starting rotation. Big risk…big reward? I like the Reds in the Central.
While Chapman (4-0, 0.00 ERA, 44 Ks, 26.0 IP) did not get the promotion I expected, he and the entire Reds' pitching staff have held their own. Joey Votto (.325, 8 HR, 29 RBI, 1.060 OBPS), so far, is earning his keep from his L..O..N..G (near) quarter-billion dollar contract extension.
The Reds fell back into second place not so much because of their failures as much as the Pittsburgh Pirates' red hot surge. The Reds are a team that opponents cannot hit against. They have the best first baseman in the National League in MVP contender Joey Votto (.348, 14 HR, 48 RBI, 1.089 OPS, .994 Fld%). Cincinnati is living by the long ball. That is fine as long as your pitching staff continues to support your habit. But if the Reds have to enter the playoffs as a Wild Card, they could die by the homer.
St. Louis Cardinals – (46-40, 3rd place) Adding Adam Wainwright minus Albert Pujols equals a net loss. The Redbirds snuck into the playoffs last year. Not happening in 2012….
Carlos Beltran (.294, 15 HR, 42 RBI) happens. Interpret that as you will.
Great hitting plus solid staring pitching minus crappy bullpen equals no successful defense of the World Series title.
Milwaukee Brewers (40-45, 4th place) – The pitching is still uninspired and now there is no Prince Fielder. BO-RING baseball and a boring season is upon the MLB fans of Wisconsin.
Performing as I expected. It's Ryan Braun (.309, 14 HR, 36 RBI) and eight guys whose names could be replaced with "Lorem Ispum" on the scorecard and nobody would be the wiser. Whatever magic they captured last year appears to be gone.
Very little has changed since the one-quarter mark, so I will say very little about the Brewers. My only commentary is that the bullpen, save for K-Rod (Frankie Rodriguez - 1-4, 3.96 ERA, 17 Hld) conjures up phrases like, "abject failure", "comic-tragic", and "abominable".
Pittsburgh Pirates (48-37, 1st place) – I think the Pirates continue with the improvement they made last year. However, pitching is a massive liability. I think they don’t even sniff either of the NL Wild Card spots.
Did I say "pitching" was a massive liability? I meant "hitting". I whiffed on the means (much like the Pirates have in many of their at-bats this year), but not the ends. Respectable record...not on track to be in the playoff race. James McDonald (4-2, 2.20 ERA, 63 Ks) should be in the early National League Cy Young discussion and Andrew McCutchen (.331, 8 HR, 21 RBI) continues to be a shining star. It won't be enough.
Don't get too excited, Pirates Fan! You guys were near the top of the division at this time last year. I, personally, would love to see the Pirates return to the playoffs for the first time in 20 years. I think it would be good for baseball. The problem is that I think the 2012 Pirates are just an improved version of the 2011 squad.
Centerfielder Andrew McCutchen (.362, 18 HR, 60 RBI, 1.039 OPS) is a mid-season front runner for the National League MVP award. James McDonald (9-3, 2.37 ERA, 100 Ks) is a legitimate N.L. Cy Young Award candidate. The bullpen is probably one of the top five in the league, arguably top three.
The vulnerabilities for the Pirates are that they are not getting enough innings from their starting rotation and other than McCutchen, they don't have a single big threat with the stick. In fact, other than Neil Walker (.291, 6 HR, 41 RBI), I wouldn't consider any of their hitters to be "above average".
You can win the National League without good hitting when you have great pitching. However, the Pirates' relievers are not going to have enough gas in the tank late in the season to support the anemic contribution of the starting rotation to the pitching workload. Playing in the same division with the Reds and Cardinals, the Pirates have a very tall order in the second half of the season.
Houston Astros – (33-53, 6th place) MY TEAM! THE ASTROS!!! Gonna be another long year…. Gonna get even better when next year when they move into the same American League division as the two time A.L. champs. If I had an Astros crystal ball, I think I’d break it after looking into it.
The Astros are much improved over last year. They have a legitimate budding star in shortstop Jose Altuve (.309, 3 HR, 18 RBI) and a pitching staff that appears to be developing nicely. Keep an eye on this team. They could be next year's Washington Nationals.
These guys found a way back into the cellar when the Cubs had the cellar secured like a bank vault. The lineup is laced with developing, but very inexperienced hitters who are going to take time before solving National League pitching. What I would find absolutely laughable were I not a fan is that the bullpen has dubbed itself "The Regulators", complete with Warren G intro music at Minute Maid Park when they enter the game.
REGULATE WHAT? The audience's bowel movements? Because that bullpen is CRAP!
Chicago Cubs – (33-52, 5th place) They were bad last year. Their bats have gotten worse. Their sub standard pitching is about the same. Enjoy the cellar, Cubbies!
Stick a fork in 'em...again. They're done...again
The Cubs Forrest Gumped their way out of the N.L. Central's urinal by accidenting their way to winning nine of their last 13 games. Enjoy the peek of sunlight, Cubs Fan because it won't last long. Back into the cellar you go after the All-Star break.
Jump to the 8:00 mark to see the final post season play in the history of the Pirates' franchise, also one of the greatest single plays in the history of baseball. 2
N.L. West
San Francisco Giants (46-40, 2nd place) – Buster Posey is back. Their pitchers are beastly. Arizona was a fluke last year.
Posey (.294, 6 HR, 27 RBI) looks great. Melky Cabrera (.373, 4 HR, 25 RBI) appears to be having a breakout season, in the 8th year of his career. The pitchers continue to be beastly except for the one person who one would expect to be a beast, Tim Lincecum (2-6, 5.82 ERA, 1.57 WHIP), who has been abysmal. They aren't turning hits into runs and it is weighing them down.
Two things have to change if the Giants want to stop this tit-for-tat with the Los Angeles Dodgers and firmly take over 1st place in the West.
1) They absolutely must find some kind of power in their lineup. Their brand of small ball is as efficient as a man trying to dig a grave with a tablespoon.
2) Tim Lincecum (3-10, 6.42 ERA, 102 K) has got to get some control of his pitches. There are 16 year old boys who could be dropped in a hot tub with Megan Fox, wearing nothing but a skimpy white t-shirt, with more control of themselves than Lincecum has had of his pitch location this year.
Los Angeles Dodgers (47-40, 1st place) – Magic Johnson and Don Mattingly – two sports icons of the 80s…both invested in the Dodgers’ fate…both may be looking for a window to jump out of by September. I have read a lot of speculation of how much better they are supposed to be, but I just don’t see it in their lineup. Both men had to leave their sports due to medical ailments that are aggravated by stress. WHY oh WHY did they get hooked up with the Dysfunctional Dodgers?
Donnie Baseball for Manager of the Year...Magic Johnson's group for Executive(s) of the Year, if there is such an award. This team finds a way to keep winning. There is no way I could run down all of the things this team is doing right in one paragraph. This is great for baseball and I couldn't be happier to be wrong.
It appears that the Dodgers have put the brakes on a vicious slump in June, winning four of their first five games in July. In spite of the hard knocks experienced last month, the Dodgers pitching staff is among the best in baseball. Their hitters exercise good plate discipline but have limited power. MVP candidate Matt Kemp (.355, 12 HR, 28 RBI) cannot return from the D.L. (hamstring) soon enough for Dodgers Fan.
Arizona Diamondbacks (42-43, 3rd place) – The irony is that the Snakes have the talent and the schedule to recapture the lighting in a bottle they caught in 2011. I am still a believer the lightning doesn’t strike in the same place twice.
No lightning...no bottle...no striking. In fact...not a lot of strikeouts from the pitching staff. Wade Miley (6-1, 2.41, 32 Ks) has been a pleasant exception to that trend.
The Snakes keep hanging around and hanging around within striking distance. I don't think they have the pitching to make the second half push they need, but much stranger things have happened.
Colorado Rockies – (33-52, 5th place) Decent bats plus suspect pitching plus high altitude equals shootouts which equals a worn out bullpen. That won’t fly in the West for 162 games.
They are pounding my Astros, en route to a four game sweep, as I write this, so perhaps I should temper my criticism. Or not....
They can bang out runs, especially at home, and especially when Carlos Gonzalez (.332, 14 HR, 44 RBI) is involved. They can't pitch their way out of a wet paper bag. When 49 year old Jamie Moyer (2-5, 5.70, 36 Ks) is second on your team in strikeouts and innings pitched, you've got problems!
The Rockies have the best starting lineup, one through eight, in the N.L. West (one of the better ones in the National League) and the worst pitching staff of the decade, possibly the worst I have ever seen in my entire life through one half of a season.
San Diego Padres – (34-53, 4th place) They have an outfielder named Blanks, which is what they can expect to be hung on the scoreboard after many of their halves of innings this year.
Endison Volquez (2-5, 3.46 ERA, 55 Ks) is having his best season in years...on the worst team one may ever witness. He must be missing Cincinnati.
I think the Rockies hitters could come to the plate with wiffle ball bats and out hit the Padres. As for the pitching, perhaps if this were college baseball the Padres could get by with just two legitimate major league starters on their roster - Endison Volquez (5-7, 3.52 ERA, 98 Ks) and Clayton Richard (6-9, 3.91 ERA). They sure are playing like a college team.
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| Maybe Lincecum needs to borrow a page from Ricky Vaughn from Major League with some eye wear. 3 |
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1) Image from http://www.natsinsider.com/
2) Video from http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ysMLk7UH2o
3) Image from http://www.tigerdroppings.com/
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