There is just a little over one month to go and in the words of the hip-hop poet, Young Joc, it's goin' DOWN! My pre-Opening Day remarks are in black, one-quarter point remarks in blue, All-Star break remarks in green, and pre-September stretch comments in red!
NATIONAL LEAGUE
N.L. East
Philadelphia Phillies (57-67, 3rd place) – In 2010 and 2011, I said that MLB may as well skip to the World Series and hand the Phillies the National League pennant. Both years, the St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants reminded me: THAT’S WHY THEY PLAY THE GAMES. The addition of closer Jonathan Papelbon did not encourage me to change my ways. Not having completely learned my lesson, I’ll modify that to say that MLB may as well skip the regular season hand the Phillies the N.L. East division title.
Let me modify my early season remarks to say that Philadelphia had better get its last place butt in gear. That said, they are only 3 games back, so I am sticking with my pre-season expectation that they will win the N.L. East.
The words: Whiskey Tango Foxtrot? The Phillies first half debacle defies all logic and reason. Cliff Lee's (1-5, 3.98 ERA, 98 Ks) inability to bribe his way to a win until last week and the overall ineptitude of the starting rotation as a unit is a big reason. The absolute incompetence of the middle relievers and their inability to keep the ball in the yard is another reason. And the absence of Ryan Howard from the lineup until this past weekend due to injury is a third factor. I will not say, "Stick a fork in them" because this team does have the talent and experience to make a furious second half run. Just don't hold your breath, Phillies Fan.
What a bitterly disappointing season. They have pride to play for, and they may be able to avoid finishing in the cellar for the first time in 12 years. What went wrong? The strength of the Phillies, what set them apart, was their starting pitching. It wasn't there and so the Phillies will not be there in the playoffs for the first time since 2006.
Washington Nationals (77-47, 1st place) – With some big offseason moves the last two seasons and the return of a healthy Stephen Strasburg the Nationals are the Detroit Lions pre-season pick of Major League Baseball. If they stay healthy, I expect them to be second in the East and to be in the Wild Card race.
Many said the Nationals were a year away from making a serious run for the post season. Not I! Then again, even a broken clock is right twice per day.
The Washington Nationals franchise has played 43 seasons of baseball prior to 2012, dating back to their inception as the Montreal Expos in 1969. In 43 years, this woeful franchise has only made the playoffs once, in 1981. It has only finished the season in first place twice, the 1981 season and in 1994. Unfortunately, there were no playoffs in 1994 due to the players' strike. During their seven seasons (prior to this year) as the Washington Nationals, the Nationals have finished last in five of those seasons (finishing fourth in 2007 and third last year).
Barack Obama deserves no credit, but change is coming to Washington. Their starting rotation of Stephen Strasburg (9-4, 2.82 ERA, 128 Ks), Gio Gonzalez (12-3, 2.92 ERA, 118 Ks), Jordan Zimmerman (5-6, 2.61 ERA), Edwin Jackson (5-4, 3.73 ERA), and Ross Detwiler (4-3, 3.43 ERA) is lock down, lights out, and just plain nasty! Rookie outfielder Bryce Harper (.282, 8 HR, 25 RBI) is the most exciting young player in the National League. Manager Davey Johnson looks like a genius who is ready to party like it's 1986, when he managed the New York Mets to the World Series championship.
Congress could solve the deficit by loading up on Nationals stock because this team is at the very beginning of a rapid rise to the top of the National League!
This was an early season prediction that turned out better than I bargained for. The Nationals, with the best record in the majors, will probably win the division, not just make the playoffs. They have a real dilemma on their hands, however, as they will probably be without the ace in their rotation, Stephen Strasburg (15-5, 2.85 ERA, 183 Ks). The Nats are limiting Strasburg's innings pitched this season because he is coming off of Tommy John surgery in 2011.
My feelings are mixed. The Nationals franchise has not been to the playoffs since its sole appearance in the 1981 National League Championship Series as the Montreal Expos. They drafted Strasburg to win a World Series. There is no guarantee that Washington will win the division again anytime soon, especially considering they are in the same division as the consistently competitive Atlanta Braves, the always talented Philadelphia Phillies, and the consistently underachieving New York Mets (who are bound to play up to their potential eventually).
On the other hand, the Nationals are loaded with young talent and a World Series winning manager in Davey Johnson (1986 Mets). The Nationals drafted Stephen Strasburg to be dominant five years from now...ten years from now...and possibly longer. They are protecting their most precious investment by limiting Strasburg's innings pitched.
This is why I am not an MLB manager and I do not envy the delicate position of Johnson or Nationals General Manager Mike Rizzo.
Atlanta Braves (71-53, 2nd place) – Top flight pitching and weak hitting equals a lot of regular season wins and no room for error in the playoffs.
Still waiting on that top flight pitching.... Braves Fan should send flowers and fruit baskets to Dan Uggla (.267, 8 HR, 31 RBI) and Martin Prado (.322, 3 HR, 22 RBI) for keeping the team within striking distance.
The Braves pitching really tightened up with a 3.53 ERA in the month of June. The bats also heated up, hitting .264 as a team and with a team on base plus slugging percentage of .728 last month. Jair Jurrgens' (3-2, 4.97 ERA) recent return to the rotation is going to give the Braves a tremendous boost in chasing down the surprising Nationals in the N.L. East.
This team deserves to make the playoffs. I hope they host the Wild Card game and I hope they win it. The Braves have always been among my top three favorite National League franchises. In what is probably Chipper Jones' (.310, 13 HR, 54 RBI) final season, I absolutely want them to be in the mix in October.
Atlanta holds a 3.5 game lead over the St. Louis Cardinals for the top Wild Card spot. To keep that lead the pitching staff, especially the bullpen, needs to continue to play at the high level at which they have played all year. Braves Fan should still be concerned about the lack of good innings the starting rotation is offering. But as long as closer Craig Kimbrell (0-1, 1.17 ERA, 31 SV) and the 'pen continue to shut opponents down, like they have all year, the Braves will be Tomahawk Chopping after the regular season.
Miami Marlins – (57-69, 5th place) Ozzie and the Fish are going to experience growing pains. I expect a circus in year one, but not a train wreck.
And...the Ozzie Circus started (almost) with the opening pitch of the season. However, there is a reason GMs put up with Ozzie; he's that good. Miami is off to as good of a start through 40-plus games as they have been in years.
The Fish have gone into a horrific tailspin since June and cannot seem to stop the bleeding. The formula is quite simple. Small ball plus small batting averages times wimpy power hitting divided by good starting pitching minus a bullpen that gives it up more than a punk in prison equals deep doo doo at the All-Star break.
Bullpens do not get better as the season progresses, they get worse because they get tired from increased wear and tear. The only sliver of light in the Marlins 'pen is that Heath Bell (2-4, 6.75 ERA, 19 SV, 8.5 K/9 IP) appears to have awaken and realized that he is a major league closer. Bell had a 3.86 ERA, no blown saves, and a whopping 12 strikeouts per nine innings pitched last month.
The grand investment in the gorgeous new stadium and the grand experiment with manager Ozzie Guillen and the imported free agent all stars has been a grand catastrophe. This team has suffered from a lack of chemistry for years and it just got worse when they imported several MLB alpha males. Last year's National League batting champion, Jose Reyes, has been productive, but not lived up to his mammoth contract. Heath Bell was a bitter disappointment in the first half of the season. The starting pitchers have been "good enough" if the support they received had been "okay".
I have confidence in Guillen as a manager to right the ship. The common denominator in the annual irrelevance of this franchise is the franchise, not the manager. If I am in the Fish's front office, I am listening very attentively to the 2005 World Series winning manager.
New York Mets – (57-67, 3rd place) There’s the train wreck!
Or perhaps not.... The Mets have been the epitome of "dysfunction" over the previous five seasons. Yet disciplined batting, anchored by a rejuvenated third baseman David Wright (.365, 5 HR, 30 RBI), and a healthy Johan Santana (2-2, 2.75 ERA, 60 Ks) leading the pitching staff, have the Mets looking like a legitimate MLB team!
The feel good story that is the 2012 Mets continues. The big story in Mets camp has been hard throwing knuckleballer R.A. Dicky (12-1, 2.40 ERA, 123 Ks, pitched a one-hitter in June). Using the words "hard throwing" and "knuckleballer" together are a big part of why he is such a big story. Third baseman David Wright (.351, 11 HR, 59 RBI, 1.004 OPS) is making another push for his first, ever batting title. Can the bullpen pick up its weight? That appears to be the only weakness on this team.
Same old Mets.... The only difference is that there is a glaring area needing improvement - the bullpen. The play of R.A. Dickey (15-4, 2.82 ERA, 181 Ks) had Mets Fan with some cause for optimism. The starting pitchers held their collective weight and the run support was adequate. But with Frank Francisco (1-3, 6.64 ERA, 20 SV) as a closer and deplorable middle relief, the Mets are lucky to be in 3rd place.
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| The Nationals are going to miss Stephen Strasburg dearly in October. 1 |
Cincinnati Reds – (76-49, 1st place) The opposite of the Atlanta Braves. If they can just tighten up their pitching to the tune of 0.30 earned runs per game, I think they win the division. I love the promotion of Aroldis Chapman to the top of the starting rotation. Big risk…big reward? I like the Reds in the Central.
While Chapman (4-0, 0.00 ERA, 44 Ks, 26.0 IP) did not get the promotion I expected, he and the entire Reds' pitching staff have held their own. Joey Votto (.325, 8 HR, 29 RBI, 1.060 OBPS), so far, is earning his keep from his L..O..N..G (near) quarter-billion dollar contract extension.
The Reds fell back into second place not so much because of their failures as much as the Pittsburgh Pirates' red hot surge. The Reds are a team that opponents cannot hit against. They have the best first baseman in the National League in MVP contender Joey Votto (.348, 14 HR, 48 RBI, 1.089 OPS, .994 Fld%). Cincinnati is living by the long ball. That is fine as long as your pitching staff continues to support your habit. But if the Reds have to enter the playoffs as a Wild Card, they could die by the homer.
Cincinnati caught fire in the month of July and are now running away with the Central Division. It looks like I was correct on picking this division winner. Even without 2010 National League MVP Joey Votto (.342, 14 HR, 49 HR, 1.069 OBPS, 86 GP) back in the lineup yet, the Reds, with the second best record in MLB, have as good a chance of any team of winning the pennant.
This team has no weaknesses...none! The starting pitching is outstanding; the bullpen is outstanding; the power hitting is outstanding. If I had to bet money right now, I would put it on the Reds to win the National League.
St. Louis Cardinals – (67-56, 2nd place) Adding Adam Wainwright minus Albert Pujols equals a net loss. The Redbirds snuck into the playoffs last year. Not happening in 2012….
Carlos Beltran (.294, 15 HR, 42 RBI) happens. Interpret that as you will.
Great hitting plus solid staring pitching minus crappy bullpen equals no successful defense of the World Series title.
The Cardinals have all but one of the pieces perfectly in place to repeat as World Series champions. That missing piece is the bullpen and it will be their undoing, either in the regular season or the playoffs.
Milwaukee Brewers (57-66, 4th place) – The pitching is still uninspired and now there is no Prince Fielder. BO-RING baseball and a boring season is upon the MLB fans of Wisconsin.
Performing as I expected. It's Ryan Braun (.309, 14 HR, 36 RBI) and eight guys whose names could be replaced with "Lorem Ispum" on the scorecard and nobody would be the wiser. Whatever magic they captured last year appears to be gone.
Very little has changed since the one-quarter mark, so I will say very little about the Brewers. My only commentary is that the bullpen, save for K-Rod (Frankie Rodriguez - 1-4, 3.96 ERA, 17 Hld) conjures up phrases like, "abject failure", "comic-tragic", and "abominable".
The starting pitching is uninspired and the bullpen is an absolute liability. This team is a bullpen away from being in the mix...next year.
Pittsburgh Pirates (67-57, 3rd place) – I think the Pirates continue with the improvement they made last year. However, pitching is a massive liability. I think they don’t even sniff either of the NL Wild Card spots.
Did I say "pitching" was a massive liability? I meant "hitting". I whiffed on the means (much like the Pirates have in many of their at-bats this year), but not the ends. Respectable record...not on track to be in the playoff race. James McDonald (4-2, 2.20 ERA, 63 Ks) should be in the early National League Cy Young discussion and Andrew McCutchen (.331, 8 HR, 21 RBI) continues to be a shining star. It won't be enough.
Don't get too excited, Pirates Fan! You guys were near the top of the division at this time last year. I, personally, would love to see the Pirates return to the playoffs for the first time in 20 years. I think it would be good for baseball. The problem is that I think the 2012 Pirates are just an improved version of the 2011 squad.
Centerfielder Andrew McCutchen (.362, 18 HR, 60 RBI, 1.039 OPS) is a mid-season front runner for the National League MVP award. James McDonald (9-3, 2.37 ERA, 100 Ks) is a legitimate N.L. Cy Young Award candidate. The bullpen is probably one of the top five in the league, arguably top three.
The vulnerabilities for the Pirates are that they are not getting enough innings from their starting rotation and other than McCutchen, they don't have a single big threat with the stick. In fact, other than Neil Walker (.291, 6 HR, 41 RBI), I wouldn't consider any of their hitters to be "above average".
You can win the National League without good hitting when you have great pitching. However, the Pirates' relievers are not going to have enough gas in the tank late in the season to support the anemic contribution of the starting rotation to the pitching workload. Playing in the same division with the Reds and Cardinals, the Pirates have a very tall order in the second half of the season.
I am not surprised that the Pirates fell out of first place. I am also not surprised that they are just a half game back of the Cardinals for the final Wild Card spot. Their hitting, particularly for power, has gotten much better since the All-Star break. That is the benefit of being a team with young players struggling with the stick and veterans struggling. It is hard to teach an old dog new tricks, but young Bucs (pun intended) can be coached up. It is working. However, they need more low-run innings from their starters if they expect to overtake the Cardinals and clinch the final playoff spot.
Houston Astros – (39-85, 6th place) MY TEAM! THE ASTROS!!! Gonna be another long year…. Gonna get even better when next year when they move into the same American League division as the two time A.L. champs. If I had an Astros crystal ball, I think I’d break it after looking into it.
The Astros are much improved over last year. They have a legitimate budding star in shortstop Jose Altuve (.309, 3 HR, 18 RBI) and a pitching staff that appears to be developing nicely. Keep an eye on this team. They could be next year's Washington Nationals.
These guys found a way back into the cellar when the Cubs had the cellar secured like a bank vault. The lineup is laced with developing, but very inexperienced hitters who are going to take time before solving National League pitching. What I would find absolutely laughable were I not a fan is that the bullpen has dubbed itself "The Regulators", complete with Warren G intro music at Minute Maid Park when they enter the game.
REGULATE WHAT? The audience's bowel movements? Because that bullpen is CRAP!
I can only stand in absolute awe of the incompetence that is the play of the 2012 Houston Astros. The batting is awful, the fielding is awful, the bullpen is awful, the starting pitching was "not good" but has since been gutted via trades and is awful, and the managing is awful. I am in awe.
Chicago Cubs – (47-76, 5th place) They were bad last year. Their bats have gotten worse. Their sub standard pitching is about the same. Enjoy the cellar, Cubbies!
Stick a fork in 'em...again. They're done...again
The Cubs Forrest Gumped their way out of the N.L. Central's urinal by accidenting their way to winning nine of their last 13 games. Enjoy the peek of sunlight, Cubs Fan because it won't last long. Back into the cellar you go after the All-Star break.
The Astros will not be in the division next year, so the Cubs will be in the cellar at years' end, in a manner of speaking. However, I cannot help but notice that General Manager Theo Epstein is very slowly cleansing the Cubs of their toxic assets (contracts) and bringing in some young talent. I don't think I will be ripping on the Cubs two years from now. That is a L..O..N..G time for long suffering Cubs Fan, though.
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| The Big Red Machine rolls on! 2 |
San Francisco Giants (69-55, 1st place) – Buster Posey is back. Their pitchers are beastly. Arizona was a fluke last year.
Posey (.294, 6 HR, 27 RBI) looks great. Melky Cabrera (.373, 4 HR, 25 RBI) appears to be having a breakout season, in the 8th year of his career. The pitchers continue to be beastly except for the one person who one would expect to be a beast, Tim Lincecum (2-6, 5.82 ERA, 1.57 WHIP), who has been abysmal. They aren't turning hits into runs and it is weighing them down.
Two things have to change if the Giants want to stop this tit-for-tat with the Los Angeles Dodgers and firmly take over 1st place in the West.
1) They absolutely must find some kind of power in their lineup. Their brand of small ball is as efficient as a man trying to dig a grave with a tablespoon.
2) Tim Lincecum (3-10, 6.42 ERA, 102 K) has got to get some control of his pitches. There are 16 year old boys who could be dropped in a hot tub with Megan Fox, wearing nothing but a skimpy white t-shirt, with more control of themselves than Lincecum has had of his pitch location this year.
They are leading the division for now but their N.L. West division title lives are on Death Watch in the wake of Melky Cabrera's (.346, 11 HR, 60 RBI) 50 game suspension for the use of performance enhancing drugs. The Wild Card will probably be in play because the Giants are a talented team, but I think the Los Angeles Dodgers will leap frog them for the division.
Los Angeles Dodgers (67-58, 2nd place) – Magic Johnson and Don Mattingly – two sports icons of the 80s…both invested in the Dodgers’ fate…both may be looking for a window to jump out of by September. I have read a lot of speculation of how much better they are supposed to be, but I just don’t see it in their lineup. Both men had to leave their sports due to medical ailments that are aggravated by stress. WHY oh WHY did they get hooked up with the Dysfunctional Dodgers?
Donnie Baseball for Manager of the Year...Magic Johnson's group for Executive(s) of the Year, if there is such an award. This team finds a way to keep winning. There is no way I could run down all of the things this team is doing right in one paragraph. This is great for baseball and I couldn't be happier to be wrong.
It appears that the Dodgers have put the brakes on a vicious slump in June, winning four of their first five games in July. In spite of the hard knocks experienced last month, the Dodgers pitching staff is among the best in baseball. Their hitters exercise good plate discipline but have limited power. MVP candidate Matt Kemp (.355, 12 HR, 28 RBI) cannot return from the D.L. (hamstring) soon enough for Dodgers Fan.
Everyone gets a little help from Lady Luck in any noteworthy accomplishment. The Dodgers got it when the Giants' Melky Cabrera was suspended for the rest of the regular season. They wasted a golden opportunity to pull away from San Francisco by getting swept in their three game series with the arch rival. Still, The Giants' batting order lacked pop to begin with and I simply do not see how they sustain the division lead through the end of September after removing a .346 hitter with respectable power numbers from the lineup.
The Dodgers have shown some life in their bats in August. Should that continue, barring any injuries to Matt Kemp (.331, 17 HR, 53 RBI, 73 GP) or Andre Ethier (.278, 12 HR, 69 RBI), I think L.A., Magic Johnson, Don Mattingly and company with the West.
Arizona Diamondbacks (64-61, 3rd place) – The irony is that the Snakes have the talent and the schedule to recapture the lighting in a bottle they caught in 2011. I am still a believer the lightning doesn’t strike in the same place twice.
No lightning...no bottle...no striking. In fact...not a lot of strikeouts from the pitching staff. Wade Miley (6-1, 2.41, 32 Ks) has been a pleasant exception to that trend.
The Snakes keep hanging around and hanging around within striking distance. I don't think they have the pitching to make the second half push they need, but much stranger things have happened.
They are still lurking in the Wild Card race, just four games back of the Cardinals. The pitching has quietly tightened its grip. Their schedule is not very difficult down the stretch (16 of their remaining games are against the Padres, Rockies, and Cubs). The Diamondbacks could be the snake-in-the-grass in the National League, pun intended...competitors beware!
Colorado Rockies – (49-73, 5th place) Decent bats plus suspect pitching plus high altitude equals shootouts which equals a worn out bullpen. That won’t fly in the West for 162 games.
They are pounding my Astros, en route to a four game sweep, as I write this, so perhaps I should temper my criticism. Or not....
They can bang out runs, especially at home, and especially when Carlos Gonzalez (.332, 14 HR, 44 RBI) is involved. They can't pitch their way out of a wet paper bag. When 49 year old Jamie Moyer (2-5, 5.70, 36 Ks) is second on your team in strikeouts and innings pitched, you've got problems!
The Rockies have the best starting lineup, one through eight, in the N.L. West (one of the better ones in the National League) and the worst pitching staff of the decade, possibly the worst I have ever seen in my entire life through one half of a season.
Their ERA might improve if they only play eight men in the field and put a pitching machine on the mound.
San Diego Padres – (56-70, 4th place) They have an outfielder named Blanks, which is what they can expect to be hung on the scoreboard after many of their halves of innings this year.
Endison Volquez (2-5, 3.46 ERA, 55 Ks) is having his best season in years...on the worst team one may ever witness. He must be missing Cincinnati.
I think the Rockies hitters could come to the plate with wiffle ball bats and out hit the Padres. As for the pitching, perhaps if this were college baseball the Padres could get by with just two legitimate major league starters on their roster - Endison Volquez (5-7, 3.52 ERA, 98 Ks) and Clayton Richard (6-9, 3.91 ERA). They sure are playing like a college team.
Tomorrow: the American League!
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| Melky Cabrera, meet Bill Duke. 3 |
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2) Image from www.senorpez.com
3) Image from www.bleacherreport.com
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