Anybody hear the joke about Matt Howard? He tried to shoot himself after the game last night! He missed. (rimshot)
I'll bet that if Plaxico Burress had three wishes from a genie, the first one would be able to go back to 2008 and have had Matt Howard's shooting ability from last night. 1
I will stick to my day job and leave the stand up to the professionals. Many pundits are calling the 2011 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament one of the best tournaments in 20 years. That may be true. However, the conclusion had a face that only a mother could love. “Connecticut Huskies”…”Butler Bulldogs”…there couldn’t have been two more aptly named teams for one dog of a performance. I could only imagine my part of a dialogue at a bar with one of my readers happening somewhat like the following:
Last night's game was a dog, with a face only a mother could love. 2
“Yesterday, I said that I thought Butler would win. Any time an informed sports prediction is off, there are one or more variables that factored differently into the equation than anticipated. I cited, specifically, that Butler’s defense would be too much for Connecticut to overcome. Hmm…how well did I do on that one?
Let’s see. Connecticut averaged 73 points per game this season. Butler held them to 20 fewer points. Check! UConn shot 43% during the season, not very hot to begin with. Butler’s defense held them to a paltry 35% from the field, including 1 of 11 from beyond the arc. Well maybe the Huskies’ ball handling was superb…oh never mind. Butler forced 11 Connecticut turnovers and the Huskies only managed 6 assists. I guess Butler’s defense was smothering.
A picture is worth a thousand words. 3
So, how did I miss on my projection? I thought Butler’s defense would be overpowering and it was. Did Butler fall behind early? They led at halftime! That’s right. Nobody can win a championship game with a mere 53 points, can they? Well, certainly, Butler must have suffered an injury to Matt Howard or Shelvin Mack, their best players. Oh? Both of them were healthy. Well then Matt Howard must have gotten himself into early foul trouble? Only two fouls the whole game…?
I don’t get it. Butler shot 45% all year and averaged 73 points per game? That doesn’t add up! Heck, if they just shot 40% they would have blown Connecticut out of the building! They didn’t shoot 40%? Even 35% would have…they shot LESS than 35%??? Looking at these numbers, even 30% would have kept the game awfully close. Butler shot HOW much? EIGHTEEN POINT EIGHT PERCENT!?!?!?! BARTENDER!!! Jager bombs, please!!!”
Butler's shooting coach.... 4
The Bulldogs shot 18.8% from the field, the lowest field goal percentage in the history of the title game. No game is played in a vacuum, but with all other factors held constant, Butler would have won the game if it had shot 30%, which is still laughable by any standard. Connecticut forced the Bulldogs to play to the Huskies’ up tempo pace and surrendered absolutely nothing in the paint, making the Bulldogs’ three point percentage more than 25 points higher than its percentage inside the three point line. Butler could not manage a 10% field goal rate inside the arc.
Connecticut got into early team foul trouble, handled the ball poorly, with an abundance of careless turnovers, could not buy a three point shot, trailed at the half, and only mustered 53 points. Not only did UConn not get blown out…not only did UConn win…the Huskies won by 12 points: a four to six possession margin! CBS’s long standing tradition of “One Shining Moment”, a music video with highlights of the tournament a the conclusion of the championship game broadcast, could have been renamed “Someone Had to Win”. Butler’s defense was excellent; UConn was nearly perfect. Connecticut’s shooting was poor; Butler’s shooting was almost non existent.
Don't get too full of yourselves. You guys won by default! 5
Congratulations to Connecticut and Coach Jim Calhoun, with his third National Championship at UConn. A win is a win, no matter how ugly. If you didn’t like what you saw, too bad...! In the words of Coach Calhoun, “Not a dime back!”
Not a dime back!
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1) Image from nydailynews.com 2) Image from stuckon-stupid.com 3) Image from goodnewspic.com 4) Image from smh.com.au 5) Image from theglobeandmail.com
Tonight, April 4, 2011, there will be a new champion crowned in NCAA Men’s college basketball. Many sports talk hosts have expressed the opinion that the NCAA Tournament is the overall event in sports. The NFL Playoffs aside, I share that opinion.
It is the only event which, over the years, I observe casual fans, many of whom watched absolutely no college basketball during the regular season, take an interest in a sporting event. To me, it feels like nearly every man (and many women) in every office everywhere in America fills out a bracket and takes an interest in five young men, on the court, which they had never heard of prior to March, sometimes for schools that the office place bracketologist could not locate on a U.S. map.
One team is a traditional Goliath, the Connecticut Huskies. The other is a traditional David, the Butler Bulldogs. Both teams have both underdog and favorite-like characteristics.
Butler University – Arriving in a Bus Like Everyone Else, not a Pumpkin Carriage
The Bulldogs were last year’s national runner up, losing to Duke after Butler’s Gordon Heyward’s potential game winning three point shot at the buzzer bounced off of the back of the rim. It is easy to cast Butler into the “Cinderella” or “underdog” role by focusing on the name on the front of the jersey and the number next to that name in the bracket seeding. When looking at the actual accomplishments on paper, however, I do not think Butler, on the court, looks like the “little guy”.
Look at every instance, in the past, in which a team reached the Final Four in consecutive years, let alone the championship game, prior to 2011. Would you describe ANY of those teams as “Cinderellas” or “little guys”? Michigan Sate in 2010? North Carolina (the champion) in 2009? UCLA and Florida (a repeat champion) in 2008? Kansas in 2003? Maryland (the champion) in 2002? Defending champion Michigan State in 2001? Tournament champion Michigan State in 2000? Wow! Butler sure is joining a bunch of “Little Engines That Could” in this century!
Here are a couple of other "little guys", just like Butler. 2
The notion that any of the aforementioned repeat Final Four participants were longshot underdogs is absurd. Yet, if you go to Google.com, and type in “Butler University ci,” the words “Cinderella” and “Cinderella story” populate in the auto-complete field. In 2011, that does not add up. Butler is back to take what they think is theirs: a championship that narrowly escaped their grasp last season.
University of Connecticut – An Underdog with a Cape
UConn: The "Underdog" 3
The University of Connecticut is in its fourth Final Four and its third title game, playing for a chance at its third National Championship. Its Head Coach, Jim Calhoun, is in the Basketball Hall of Fame. The UConn basketball programs, both men’s and women’s, have been among the elite college hoops programs over the last 20 years. WHY oh WHY should the Huskies have to soil their hands with such lowly creatures as the Butler Bulldogs???
Connecticut finished in 9th place in the highly competitive Big East conference during the regular season. They won five consecutive games in five days in the Big East Tournament to win the conference tournament and catapult up to a #3 seed in the West Region of the NCAA tournament. Connecticut’s run earned the Huskies a higher seed than Georgetown, West Virginia, St. John’s, Cincinnati, and Louisville, all of whom had superior Big East records in the regular season.
The Huskies play solid team defense and crash the boards aggressively when they need to. However, the foundation of their offense comes from one man: guard Kemba Walker, a National Player of the Year candidate and a certain Most Outstanding Player of this year’s tournament should the Huskies win tonight.
One man offenses seldom win championships, yet Connecticut ran roughshod through its first three tournament games and had more gas in its tank than Elite Eight opponent Arizona and National Semifinal opponent Kentucky. This is in contrast to a regular season in which it lost against then-underdogs West Virginia, Marquette, St. John’s, and Louisville when wins could have significantly advanced their standing in the Big East.
Who is the REAL Underdog?
The odds on tonight’s game have Connecticut as three point favorites.* That is a single basket. This is virtually a push. In addition, betting odds are simply reactions to how people are betting on games. I think the average, garden variety seasoned gambler, who does not actually watch the games, may be deferring to Connecticut because they are a more traditional power and because they have been on fire.
However, Butler has simply outplayed every opponent during this tournament, especially with their frustrating, physical defense. Connecticut is not that big, compared to Butler. They appear to have no daunting advantage in length to overcome the size and physicality of Butler. If Kemba Walker can be bottled up, the Huskies will be in a lot of trouble. That remains to be a BIG “if” and nobody has succeeded in that task thus far. Still, UConn has yet to face dual (offensive, defensive) threats like Butler’s Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack on both sides of the court. I think that Butler has too much for Connecticut to handle if there are no major Butler injuries and Matt Howard is not in foul trouble.
Advantage: Butler
Please...PLEASE let them bring the Luther Vandross Version of "One Shining Moment" back this year!
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*Source: sbnation.com 1) The Final Four logo is a trademark of the NCAA and its licensed affiliates. 2) Image from graneyandthepig.wordpress.com 3) Image from tylerquillin.wordpress.com
The Final Four is less than 72 hours away. Sixty-eight teams started, beginning with the First Four. Four teams remain the Virginia Commonwealth Rams, the Butler Bulldogs, the Kentucky Wildcats, and the Connecticut Huskies – the Final Four.
The National Semifinals could not be partitioned better. One semifinal features participants from major conferences, the University of Kentucky from the Southeastern Conference and the University of Connecticut from the Big East, arguably the best conference in college basketball in 2011. The winner will face the survivor in the other semifinal game between Butler University, of the Horizon League, and Virginia Commonwealth University of the Colonial League.
The Goliaths – (4) Kentucky Wildcats vs (3) Connecticut Huskies
Regular readers of the Hat Trick have gotten my two cents on these programs throughout the season. Both schools are among the elite but both schools have underperformed at unexpected times, during the regular season. Whatever speech Wildcats coach John Calipari gave his team…whatever motivational tactics Huskies coach Jim Calhoun used on his players after the regular season finale…the message was received.
Neither team has lost a postseason game (including their respective conference tournaments). Kentucky, winners of 10 straight, was not lost in over a month. UConn has won nine consecutive games, including a vigorous string of five games in five days during the Big East Tournament. In a college basketball season in which no clear favorite ever emerged, these two teams, in my opinion, proved, on the court, that they are genuinely two of the four best college basketball teams in the country, albeit by slim margins.
Analysts, time and again, have expected Connecticut to wither and fall due to exhaustion from their entrance into the Big Dance on the heels of the extra games they had to play to win the Big East tournament (and earn a #3 seed to secure favorable early round matchups in the NCAA Tournament). Time and time again, those analysts have been wrong. Kentucky, while possessing senior leadership on the court from forward Josh Harrelson (8 PPG, 9 RPG), is led on the stat sheet by three freshmen, guards Brandon Knight (who has had ice in his veins throughout the tournament; 17 PPG, 4 APG) and Doron Lamb (12 PPG), and forward Terrence Jones (16 PPG, 9 RPG, 2 BlkPG).
I stated at the start of the tournament that Connecticut was the “x factor” team with the implication that this team could go as far as junior guard Kemba Walker (24 PPG, 5 APG, 5 RPG, 2 StlPG), a National Player of the Year candidate, and Hall of Fame coach Calhoun could take them. So far they have led the Huskies to within two wins of the school’s third National Championship. Walker’s exemplary play during the regular season reached an even higher level during the postseason.
Kentucky's Brandon Knight 1
My concern for Connecticut is that is has too many eggs in one small basket, Kemba Walker. Jeremy Lamb is the only other player on the team averaging double figure scoring. The only two active members of the team who stand 6’10” or taller – Charles Okwandu and Enosch Wolf, spend a combined less than 20 minutes per game on the floor. What the Huskies have is a smallish team with only one consistent potent scoring threat facing a team loaded with offensive weapons and two players in Knight and Jones who are so good, they may have possibly already outgrown the college game as freshman.
If history is any indicator, Calipari’s team may end up vacating all of its efforts en route to the Final Four, but if I had to place a bet (which I do not do) I would bet that such a vacation would come after Kentucky advances to the National Championship game.
Advantage: Kentucky
Coach Calhoun: "From 'The Daily' what? Picking Kentucky? You're not that stupid, are you?" 3
The Davids – (11) Virginia Commonwealth Rams vs (8) Butler Bulldogs
One of the Davids is actually a Cinderella, VCU. The Rams, in the voiced opinions of countless college basketball analysts, passed over more worthy teams in its own state to reach the tournament and did not even deserve to be in the field of 68, over more deserving teams such as Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Colorado. Rams coach Shaka Smart has played the “us against the world” card five times since the First Four and, five times, his team has won, including an inexplicable, shocking upset over the #1 seeded Kansas Jayhawks, an overtime thriller against Florida State, and solid defensive thrashings of #3 seed Purdue, Georgetown, and First Four opponent USC. VCU has gotten its entire lineup involved in the scoring with point guard Joey Rodriguez (11 PPG, 5 APG) running the floor and spreading the ball around.
VCU coach Shaka Smart 2
Butler is a D.I.N.O. – David In Name Only. While it is a school from a mid-major conference, it has proven, for the second consecutive year, that it is one of the best programs in college basketball. The 2010 runner up lost its best player, Gordon Heyward, to the NBA and still returned to the Final Four in an attempt to finish what it started. Bulldogs coach Brad Stevens, in the opinions of many, has risen to the ranks of the elite college basketball coaches at age 34. Senior power forward Matt Howard (17 PPG, 8 RPG) and junior point guard Shelvin Mack (16 PPG, 4 APG) are the leaders on the floor for Butler. They effectively strong-armed the #1 seed (or, at least the bracket and matchup benefits) from Pittsburgh by beating them in the third round and have looked the part ever since. In the New Orleans regionals, they beat #4 seed Wisconsin and then beat #2 seed Florida, in overtime.
Butler is battle-tested. Butler is experiences. Butler got to see and smell a championship a year ago, but could not touch or taste it. They are coming for theirs. I think VCU finally comes out of its glass slipper and leaves Houston in a carriage-turned-pumpkin.
Advantage: Butler
The clock struck midnight for Butler in 2010 on the final shot. The Bulldogs intend to pass the torch to VCU. 4
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1,4) Images from thebleacherreport.com 2) Image from beaumontenterprise.com 3) Video from youtube.com
March Madness…The Big Dance…the NCAA Tournament, no matter which name you use, always offers drama, excitement, and surprises. The 2011 tournament, however, could have come with a disclaimer at the beginning of each game: “Expect the unexpected!”
There is not a single number one seed in the Final Four this season. Between the 11th seeded Virginia Commonwealth Rams, the 8th seeded Butler Bulldogs, the 4th seeded Kentucky Wildcats, and the 3rd seeded Connecticut Huskies, there are a number of unusual occurrences in the 2011 Final Four. The national semifinal matchup between VCU and Butler will be the highest combined seeded matchup in the history of the Final Four. * This is only the third time in the history of the Final Four that a number one seed has failed to appear* and the first time, ever, that neither a #1 nor #2 seed has appeared**.
I found the guy who predicted Butler and VCU in the National Semifinal. 2
After #1 seeded Kansas’ shocking loss to VCU, I doubt we will hear any analysts using terms like “slam dunk”, “sure thing”, or “no chance” when predicting the winners of the three matchups that will comprise the Final Four. While no single upset of any favorite in this year’s tournament should surprise nobody (after all, this is March “Madness”) the wholesale sweeping of the top two seeds in each bracket and the advancement of lower seeds into the Sweet 16 round and beyond has been mind blowing. The only predictable factoid among the Final four teams is that the Big East, which sent a record 11 teams to the field of 64, is represented in the Final Four. Thank goodness for some semblance of normalcy!
Butler coach (34 year old) Brad Stevens. This is basically the guy who used to be the younger kid I could pick on because he was harmless looking. He's still younger and still harmless looking, but he's just two games away from coaching his team to the national championship that eluded him by inches last year.
The Hat Trick will give its expert analysis, with the usual disclaimer that it is worth the paper that you could print it on, later in the week. In the interim, I think that sports fans should take the coming week to savor the delightful entertainment treat that this NCAA Tournament has provided for fans. It is often said that the best predictor of future events is the past. The first five rounds of this tournament lead me to think that the best is yet to come and, perhaps, we could witness the most surprising and dramatic Final Four in history.
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*Source: ESPN.com *Source: si.com 1) The 2011 Final Four Houston logo is a trademark of the NCAA and its licensed affiliates. 2) Image from http://richde.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/liar.jpg 3) Image from http://indianapolis-indiana.funcityfinder.com
There is SO much going on in the sports world right now. The NCAA Tournament is building up to an exciting conclusion. Major League Baseball Spring Training is heading into its final week. The NBA regular season is approaching its final 10 games. The NFL…. Oh, wait…there is no NFL.
The NCAA Tournament is the main event in March. It resumes tonight, with the winners of tonight’s and tomorrow’s games advancing to the Elite 8, one game away from the Final Four. Beyond the Big Dance, the pickings are pretty slim this Thursday and Friday, and rightfully so.
The Hat Trick ran a Part 1 and Part 2 of the Sweet 16 earlier in the week with a breakdown of the action. Feel free to use it as a reference, like an encyclopedia (or a supermarket tabloid).
Saturday, March 26
NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament West and Southeast Regional Finals
Like I said, the pickings are slim come tournament time. You wouldn’t schedule a marquis matchup at the same time as the Super Bowl, would you? Well, the NBA (the only one of the “big three” sports in season, at the moment) has not lost that point either!
Sunday, March 27
NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament East and Southwest Regional Finals
The Final Four will be complete after these matches. I wonder what you call the downtime between Saturday’s and Sunday’s games from the “Elite 8” round. The “Superb 6”…? What about the remaining teams immediately following the first game of Sunday? Would they be the “Fantastic Five”? Things that make you go, “hmmm,”….
NBA Portland Trailblazers at Oklahoma City Thunder
Finally, some professional action! The Blazers are in a tight four way race with the Denver Nuggets, New Orleans Hornets, and Memphis Grizzlies to better their positioning in the lower half of the Western conference playoff seedings. Oklahoma City is pursuing a long shot, late season push to catch the Dallas Mavericks and avoid being possibly having to go on the road for most of a best of seven series with the San Antonio Spurs, who have been all but invincible at home, in the second round of the playoffs.
The Thunder are at home and it remains unclear whether or not forward Marcus Camby and his 10 rebounds per night, on a team that often struggles under the boards, with be available by Sunday due to an ankle injury.
There is very little to pick from on the NBA’s list of offerings, unless you live in a market carrying the Miami Heat at the Cleveland Cavaliers on Tuesday night. You can see LeBron throw his powder into the air of Cleveland sports sanctuary turned mausoleum Quicken Loans Arena, benefiting an extra dozen Cleveland Police officers brought in for additional security, but will likely do little more than see the Heatles for free.
I do not pretend to have much depth of knowledge about the women’s college game, but, that said, I would be stunned to not see the Connecticut Huskies and Tennessee Lady Volunteers advance to the women’s Elite Eight…again. Can anyone tell me the last time one of these two teams did NOT reach the Regional Finals? The first one with the correct answer gets a shout out in the next Hat Trick! Don’t blow up the comments box at once, everyone.
(crickets chirping)
If The King does this, again, in Cleveland, it will give me the feeling that he is still punching his opponent after the referee declared a TKO. 2
Wednesday, March 30
New Jersey Nets at New York Knicks
The Nets travel across the Turnpike to Madison Square Garden to take on the slumping Knicks. While the Nets have been hopelessly (all but) eliminated from the playoffs for quite some time, there is a ray of hope for the future. The Nets, winners of 6 of their last 10, have a winning record this month, words one has not heard in quite some time. I have not followed the Nets closely, but I do not need to to know that the acquisition of All-Star point guard Deron Williams accounts for much of the turnaround.
Deron Williams has wasted no time in making his presence felt with the Nets, 6-4 in the month of march (as of this morning). 3
The Knicks’ shining star is fading quickly. The Philadelphia 76ers, left for dead in the earlier part of the season, have surpassed the Knicks and taken over sixth place in the Eastern Conference. While a fall into 8th place (let alone from the playoff picture altogether) is unlikely for the slumping Knicks, it is now a possibility, albeit a slim one. Their swagger has cooled substantially, having lost seven of their last eight games. The Nets have averaged 99 points per game in March, 5 points per game above their season average. A surging Nets team with a star player playing like he has something to prove (and, if so, he is proving it) faces a Knicks team that still believes it can out shoot everyone and defense be damned. This just in, Knicks: you have the second best offense in the NBA and a losing record.
Advantage: Nets
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1) Image from theurbandaily.com 2) Image from collegemagazine.com 3) Image from netsarescorching.com
Today, we pick up where we left off from yesterday, examining the eight remaining teams in the Southwest and Southeast regions of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.
Southwest Region
(1) Kansas Jayhawksvs (12) Richmond Spiders
I personally expected Richmond to beat Vanderbilt (citation) and reach the round of 32. It is no surprise that the Spiders were able to dispose of Moorehead State. The clock strikes midnight for the Cinderella Spiders against the #1 seed in the bracket. The question, to me, is not how much Marcus and Markieff Morris pile on Richmond, but at what point Kansas coach Bill Self calls the dogs off and removes them from the game, giving some of the bench players some playing time.
Kansas' Marcus Morris dropping 2 of his 16 points on Boston Univeristy in the 2nd round. 1
Kansas racks up too many points. They shoot too well. They move the ball too well. And, oh by the way, they are tough on defense, too. Richmond is a good, quality Atlantic 10 team that has had a good run, but they are not big enough nor do they shoot well enough to keep up with Kansas. If the margin of victory for Kansas is 10 points or less, chalk it up as a moral victory for Richmond because I’m “going with chalk” in this matchup.
Advantage: Kansas
(11) Virginia Commonwealth Rams vs (10) Florida State Seminoles
Virginia Commonwealth is this year’s George Mason (from 2006). The overwhelming sentiment in the sports media was that VCU did not deserve to be in the First Four over more deserving teams like Clemson, Virginia Tech, or Colorado; The Selection Committee made a mistake. I completely agree.
THAT’S…why they PLAY the GAMES! It does not matter what I think, what Dick Vitale thinks, what Jim Rome thinks, or what any person running his trap thinks. VCU made the field and now they are in the Sweet 16. Rams coach Shaka Smart has played the “us versus the world” card to the Nth degree and has motivated and willed his overachieving team to the Sweet 16.
Florida State is no stranger to succeeding as an underdog, having beaten Duke during the regular season and obliterating #2 seed Notre Dame, whom many analysts had in the Final Four. Personally, I think FSU was done a disservice by being seeded as low as 10th. The Seminoles finished third in the ACC and three of its 11 losses, late in the season, were in the absence of their best player, Chris Singleton. Singleton is back, albeit with limited action. FSU has made a vociferous statement in the second and third rounds of the tourney. I think that “the world” finally gets the better of coach Smart and Florida State advances to the Elite Eight.
Advantage: Florida State
VCU came to play. You'd better recognize! Purdue did. 2
Southeast Region
(8) Butler Bulldogs vs (4) Wisconsin Badgers
Last year’s runner up continues pushing through the tournament, similarly to how it did in 2010. Wisconsin is The Daily Hat Trick’s pick to advance from this region to The Final Four. Something’s gotta give!
This game could be the ugliest among the regional semifinal games. Butler is no stranger to winning ugly, in its bizarre win over #1 seed Pittsburgh in the final seconds, fueled by a pair of offsetting stupid fouls by both teams. Wisconsin is a team that has been proud to win ugly, playing physical defense, being unafraid to foul, and controlling the tempo of the game – often a very slow tempo.
Butler’s Matt Howard vs Jon Leuer….Shelvin Mack vs Jordan Taylor of the Badgers…Butler Coach Brad Stevens vs Wisconsin’s Bo Ryan…. Let me say that I would not bet a dime on this game. Actually, I would not bet a dime AGAINST Butler. This team, with its bright, young coach, has spent the past two seasons beating the odds and beating everyone in their way. Still, Wisconsin’s Taylor has been money on the big stage throughout the season and in the tournament. I am going go with my gut and my original pick from this bracket.
Advantage: Wisconsin
(3) BYU Cougars vs (2) Florida Gators
The Jimmer Show vs the Gator Chomp…. Those of you who have read the Hat Trick throughout the season have witnessed me referring to Florida as “overrated” and suggesting that their bubble will burst eventually. Yet here they are, the #2 seed in the region and in the Sweet 16. Originally, I expected the Gators to bow out at this point in the tournament, but now I am not so sure.
I expected that Florida would face St. John’s in the Regional Semifinals, but that prediction crashed and burned on the first full day of tournament action. Florida has two speedy, sharp shooting guards in its backcourt in Erving Walker (15 PPG) and Kenny Boynton (14 PPG). BYU’s backcourt is not known for its defense. BYU’s frontcourt matches up well against low percentage shooting teams, but Florida is not one of them. I think this game will shape up into a battle of backcourts and jumpers and, as impressive as Jimmer Fredette is, the game has to be played on both sides of the court.
Advantage: Florida
Flordia forward Chandler Parsons, AKA "The White Mamba" 3
Updated Hat Trick Elite Eight: Florida vs Wisconsin, Florida State vs Kansas, Connecticut vs Duke, North Carolina vs Ohio State
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1,2) Images from kansascity.com 3) Image from bleacherreport.com
Another March…another year of Madness. Every year, there are surprising upsets in the first two (full bracket) rounds of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. The 2011 edition, however, is LOADED with lower, double-digit seeds, more than I can recall in a very long time, if ever. While this makes the Sweet 16 round interesting, the infusion of underdogs somewhat waters down the sweetness.
The Southwest Region (1-Kansas vs 12-Richmond and 11-Virginia Commonwealth vs 10-Florida State) is guaranteed to have a double digit seed in its Regional Final. Eleventh seeded Marquette, who has played disciplined, fundamental, high percentage shooting basketball all year and has reaped the benefits by upsetting heavily favored Syracuse. All in all there were 10 wins in the first two rounds by teams in the lower half of the seedings.
VCU coach Shaka Smart - having the last laugh. 1
Today we look at the East and West Regions of the tournament. With only 12 games remaining until the Final Four participants are decided, there are a number of uncertainties. Several of the remaining participants have had roller coaster like streaks of hot and cold during the season, making their fates difficult to predict. Some of the underdogs have suddenly gotten hot, while other lower seeds have simply stuck to their gameplans, embraced their strengths and allowed their opponents to beat themselves. This all adds to the “Madness” of March Madness.
"Cheer! Cheer for old F-S-U! Notre Dame, seed 2, played more like poo! Shove that fight song up your wazoo; we're still alive not you!" 2
East Region
(11)Marquette Golden Eagles vs (2) North Carolina Tar Heels
The Marquette Golden Eagles may appear poised to meet their Waterloo when they face the #2 seed North Carolina Tar Heels. However, the Washington Huskies demonstrated, in their three point loss to UNC (86-83) that the Tar Heels can be pressured into a shootout and that holes can be poked in the Tar Heels’ transition defense.
Those weaknesses play into Marquette’s strengths. The Golden Eagles showed willingness to shoot and the ability to set up and make the long three point shot. Carolina is a team whose defensive strength is lies most in its size, from forwards Harrison Barnes, John Henson and Tyler Zeller. If Marquette can out run Carolina, the Tar Heels could face another uncomfortably close contest.
Advantage: North Carolina
(1) Ohio State Buckeyes vs (4) Kentucky Wildcats
The Ohio State Buckeyes face the Kentucky Wildcats in one of the only “chalk” matchups of the Sweet 16 (the other being BYU-Florida in the Southeast). Kentucky has been a consistently inconsistent “top flight” team throughout the season. OSU, for the most part, has been the model of consistency. At this stage of the tournament, consistency has an advantage.
Brandon Knight's first points vs Princeton, with 2 seconds left. Better late than never.... 3
Brandon Knight of Kentucky finally stopped hitting the snooze bar to hit the game winning bucket in the first round against Princeton only for the Wildcats to recover and comfortably lead West Virginia in the final minutes. The Buckeyes, as expected, have treated their opponents as cannon fodder or practice dummies (whichever comparison fits best) in the tourney. I expect nothing less than a victory - maybe a blowout…maybe undecided until the final three minutes - from OSU for those reasons, regardless of which Kentucky team shows up.
Advantage: Ohio State
West Region
(1) Duke Blue Devils vs (5) Arizona Wildcats
The Blue Devils, while surviving a scare from 8th seeded Michigan, have nonetheless looked like defending National Champions. The return of point guard Kyrie Irving to the Blue Devils lineup has proven to be the spark that many expected. The Wildcats, led by Derrick Williams’ clutch play, have probably appeared on many radars for the first time after their win in the final seconds over Texas, a team many thought would be in the Final Four.
It is tough to call a #5 seed a Cinderella, but considering the dramatic fashion in which Arizona survived the first two rounds, some may have the urge to use words like “destiny” to describle the Wildcats’ 2011 Tournament run. I’ll drink the destiny Kool-Aid if Arizona beats Duke but I think this semi-Cinderella has its horseless carriage turn into a squash as Duke delivers the stroke of midnight.
Advantage: Duke
(3) Connecticut Huskies vs (2) San Diego State Aztecs
In the days between the Big East Tournament Final and the beginning of the NCAA Tournament, I repeatedly heard how Connecticut would be “tired” from have played five games in five days. The Huskies would be “winded”. Could they keep up? I think they have answered that question nicely with double-digit victory margins, over Bucknell and Cincinnati, in their first two games of the tournament.
Jimmer Fredette, the bain of SDSU's season. 4
San Diego State has been among the few programs that is unbeaten against every school without the “Jimmer Show”. Connecticut has none, either. However, “Kemba’s Corner” is similarly impressive and has been as daunting for UConn’s opponents in the Big Dance.
I would feel very comfortable in picking Connecticut to advance were they not a (unpredictable) Big East team. The 11 Big East schools in the tournament could easily convince me that up is down with the performances and results I have observed thus far. Still, when a relatively unproven mid-major power faces a strong, major-conference school (even the Big East), I lean toward the establishment.
Advantage: Connecticut
Tomorrow: The Southwest and Southeast regions!
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1) Image from seattlepi.com 2) Image from sbnation.com 3) Imange from local12.com 4) Image from nydailynews.com
Top o the mornin’ to ya! What better a way to start St. Patty’s Day than with all of the college basketball you can watch? March Madness is here! Each day of the tournament, we will focus on the NCAA Tournament, and only the NCAA Tournament. Here are some games worth watching in the round of 64.
Thursday, March 17
NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament – Second Round
West Region (6) Cincinnati Bearcats vs (11) Missouri Tigers
Cincinnati is a team that has lost more games against tougher opponents than it has won. However, it has beaten quality teams, such as a 20+ point drubbing of Georgetown (albeit a Chris Wright-less Georgetown) in the regular season finale. The Bearcats are a team that can advance far and pull off some upsets if they catch lightning in a bottle. That will depend on the preparation and performance of Cincy forward Yancy Gates (12 PPG, 7 RPG) and guard Dion Dixon (12 PPG).
Mizzou is a club that can score a TON of points, led by guard Marcus Denmon (17 PPG, 46% 3PT), and that makes them dangerous in any single elimination tournament. They struggled in their conference, going 8-8 in the Big XII. But once a team is in The Dance, everyone is 0-0 and this is a game worth watching.
Advantage: Cincinnati
East Region (4) Kentucky Wildcats vs (13) Princeton Tigers
This SHOULD be a one sided game, on paper. But I have watched Kentucky look flat, several times, against inferior competition, such as Ole Miss and Arkansas, this season and Princeton is riding a confident high streak, with its dramatic, last second win over Harvard to qualify for the NCAA Tournament. Kentucky’s Terrance Jones and Brandon Knight will decide how far this team goes. Princeton has had good moments against quality opponents, beating Rutgers and making then 21st ranked Central Florida sweat. I expect Kentucky to win, but Princeton is capable of sucker punching the Wildcats if the Cats aren’t prepared.
Advantage: Kentucky
Southwest Region (5) Vanderbilt Commodores vs (12) Richmond Spiders
The “12-5” upsets seem to be an annual tradition in the big dance, and Vandy is ripe for the picking. Vanderbilt is simply not consistent and they have trouble putting away opponents. Richmond is a quality mid-major, winners of the Atlantic 10 Tournament, with single-digit losses and wins over #8 Purdue and #25 Temple during the regular season. This could be a problem for the SEC school.
Advantage: Richmond
Southeast Region (7) UCLA Bruins vs (10) Michigan State Spartans
Can anyone explain to me how UCLA is a seventh seed? Does anyone believe the quality of their Pac-10 schedule is tougher than the Big-10 schedule with which Michigan State had to contend? Would you REALLY bet against Tom Izzo’s Spartans in this matchup? Could you string together more rhetorical questions in a single paragraph?
Advantage: Michigan State
Are you REALLY going to pick UCLA over any team coached by THIS guy? 2
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It is that time of year again: March Madness! It is a tournament of 68 teams of young men from all around the country leaving every ounce of passion out on the court for one shining moment. In my opinion, it is one of the rare times of the year, in major sporting events, in which the purity of competition of sport and love of a game shine through our television sets.
There is no money involved. The vast majority of the participants have no chance of playing in the NBA. The few who have such an opportunity are surrounded by those who do not. Nonetheless, these young men all share the common bond of their universities and their teams.
The sports writers and pollsters are irrelevant once the tournament commences. There is a clear and definite winner. The players truly leave everything on the court.
Without further delay, here is a bird’s eye view of the tournament brackets with the two cents of yours truly.
EAST REGION
Site of Regional Final: Newark, New Jersey
Quality of Region (1st-4th best): 2nd
Top Seed: Ohio State Buckeyes Best Player: Jared Sullinger, Ohio State X-factor Team: Syracuse Orange Potential Pivotal matchup: Syracuse Orange vs North Carolina Tar Heels Most Likely to Advance to the Final Four: North Carolina Tar Heels
The top seed in the tournament, Ohio State, is the favorite of many to advance from this region. However, North Carolina has elevated its play, particularly in the final month of the season, concluding the regular season with a win of the archrival Duke Blue Devils. Harrison Barnes is outstanding and appears to get better in every game. And the Heels, having overcome substantial deficits multiple times in the ACC Tournament, know how to play from behind, if necessary.
The wild card in this region is the Syracuse Orange. I have not been able to get a handle on this team all season and I do not expect some omen of predictability to kick in during March Madness. There have been times when the Orange appeared poised to climb to the top of the Big East and they laid an egg. There have been other moments in which the Orange appeared ready to tank and they pulled out a major win.
The Orange are on a potential collision course with North Carolina, assuming both teams advance to the Sweet 16 round in Newark. While I do not expect Syracuse to lose to Indiana State in the second round (the traditional first round), I would not drop dead of a heart attack from a second round Orange loss to either Xavier or Marquette. At the same time, I expect North Carolina to advance from this region, but I think that Syracuse could beat them. Syracuse, in this tournament environment, is unpredictable to me. That will make the East Region a fun one to watch.
Ohio State's Jared Sullinger 2
WEST REGION
Site of Regional Final: Anaheim, California Quality of Region (1st-4th best): 3rd Top Seed: Duke Blue Devils Best Player: Kemba Walker, Connecticut X-factor Team: Connecticut Huskies Potential Pivotal matchup: Connecticut Huskies vs Duke Blue Devils Most Likely to Advance to the Final Four: Duke Blue Devils, most likely tournament winner.
Duke is the defending champion and are no less talented this year than last. The “X factor” for the Blue Devils, I believe, is the health and performance of freshman phenom Kyrie Irving. Irving has been out of the lineup since December with a toe injury. A return of Irving at or near his full performance potential could make Duke unstoppable. I think that Duke will win the NCAA Tournament when the nets are cut down for the final time at the Final Four in Houston on April 4th.
Kemba Walker --> money!
Connecticut is another team that I cannot predict, long term. Like Syracuse, I think that UConn (another roller coaster like Big East team) could either win or lose in the rounds of 32, 16, or 8. I expect the Huskies to face Duke in the Elite Eight and while Duke would be a heavy favorite, I could never write off Connecticut star Kemba Walker nor could I ever…EVER (ever, ever, ever, ever, ever) write off Connecticut Head Coach Jim Calhoun. I am not that stupid!
Coach Calhoun: "My best advice to you? Shut up!"
SOUTHWEST REGION
Site of Regional Final: San Antonio, Texas
Quality of Region (1st-4th best): 1st
Top Seed: Kansas Jayhawks
Best Player: Ben Hansbrough, Notre Dame X-factor Team: Georgetown Hoyas Potential Pivotal matchup: Georgetown Hoyas vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Most Likely to Advance to the Final Four: Kansas Jayhawks, most likely tournament runner up.
Kansas and the Flying Morris Twins (Markieff and Marcus) are too good to fail. Okay…those are famous last words of many a Bracketologist. But I do think the Jayhawks are as much of a sure bet as one may find in this year’s tournament. They could potentially face Louisville and either Georgetown or Notre dame en route to the Final Four, but, as I said, this team has more collective talent than any other team in the bracket, and has made fewer mistakes throughout the season.
Georgetown is the wild card in this bracket and (big surprise) they are also a Big East team. One may take my prior remarks about Connecticut and Syracuse and say “ditto” for Georgetown. This team is capable of swinging in either direction in the second, third and Regional Semifinal rounds. Unlike Syracuse or Connecticut, I think that Georgetown, and anyone else in the bracket will hit a KU wall in the Regional Finals. Still, the Hoyas are capable of either beating or being beaten by Purdue in the third round or Notre Dame in the Sweet 16 round.
Notre Dame's Ben Hansbrough 5
SOUTHEAST REGION
Site of Regional Final: New Orleans, Louisiana
Quality of Region (1st-4th best): 4th
Top Seed: Pittsburgh Panthers
Best Player: Jimmer Fredette, BYU Cougars
X-factor Team: St. John’s Red Storm
Potential Pivotal matchup: St. John Red Storm vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Most Likely to Advance to the Final Four: Wisconsin Badgers
“WISCONSIN” you say? Yes! Wisconsin. I think that Pittsburgh is the most likely of the #1 seeds to be rubbed out, possibly early in the tournament. The Panthers were dropped in their first game in the Big East Tournament by UConn. They only lost 5 times prior to the Big Dance, but three of those losses were in the past month, all against some of the better quality Big East opponents. Its only recent wins against ranked competition were against Villanova, a team limping into the NCAA Tournament by any standard.
The Wisconsin Badgers, on the other hand, have been quietly getting the job done. Led by Jordan Taylor, the Badgers became a bright blip on my radar when they handed #1 ranked Ohio State its first loss of the season. The Badgers only lost once in the month of February. Wisconsin is limping into the Dance after being obliterated by Ohio State in their rematch in the regular season finale and losing to Penn State, 36-33, in the ugliest shooting performance in a major conference tournament I can recall in my entire life.
Badgers coach Bo Ryan is too good of a coach and Wisconsin has too much talent to curl up in its shell and not prepare to make a statement that the last two games were anomalies. One may think picking Wisconsin is a leap of faith, but I am not feeling too much intestinal or testicular fortitude by doing so.
The wild card in this region is the St. John’s Red Storm. I promise that I did not roll out of bed this morning and decide to hype up the Big East by saying that the conference would have one of its teams represent the “X factor” in every bracket. However, the conference sent 11 teams to the field of 64, representing more than a sixth of the participants. The reason a conference would have such an unprecedented level of representation is because the conference is very competitive and teams have been capable of winning or losing to their better opponents on any given night.
The Red Storm recorded big wins against then #9 Connecticut, #4 Pittsburgh, and #14 Villanova in February and has proven it has the mettle for tough opponents. Should St. John’s win in the second round, it will likely face the BYU Cougars and the Jimmer Show, as in Player of the Year candidate Jimmer Fredette. With the absence of Brandon Davies from the Cougar lineup, I think that BYU is ripe for a minor upset. I think that the Red Storm could beat Florida, whom I have never been completely sold on this season, and I think they could match up well against Wisconsin or Pittsburgh, whom St. John’s has already beaten this season.
Jimmer 4
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1) Final Four logo is a trademark of the NCAA and affiliates.
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