Sweet (N Low) Sixteen - Part 1

Another March…another year of Madness. Every year, there are surprising upsets in the first two (full bracket) rounds of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. The 2011 edition, however, is LOADED with lower, double-digit seeds, more than I can recall in a very long time, if ever. While this makes the Sweet 16 round interesting, the infusion of underdogs somewhat waters down the sweetness.

The Southwest Region (1-Kansas vs 12-Richmond and 11-Virginia Commonwealth vs 10-Florida State) is guaranteed to have a double digit seed in its Regional Final. Eleventh seeded Marquette, who has played disciplined, fundamental, high percentage shooting basketball all year and has reaped the benefits by upsetting heavily favored Syracuse. All in all there were 10 wins in the first two rounds by teams in the lower half of the seedings.

VCU coach Shaka Smart - having the last laugh. 1

Today we look at the East and West Regions of the tournament. With only 12 games remaining until the Final Four participants are decided, there are a number of uncertainties. Several of the remaining participants have had roller coaster like streaks of hot and cold during the season, making their fates difficult to predict. Some of the underdogs have suddenly gotten hot, while other lower seeds have simply stuck to their gameplans, embraced their strengths and allowed their opponents to beat themselves. This all adds to the “Madness” of March Madness.

"Cheer! Cheer for old F-S-U! Notre Dame, seed 2, played more like poo! Shove that fight song up your wazoo; we're still alive not you!" 2

East Region

(11) Marquette Golden Eagles vs (2) North Carolina Tar Heels

The Marquette Golden Eagles may appear poised to meet their Waterloo when they face the #2 seed North Carolina Tar Heels. However, the Washington Huskies demonstrated, in their three point loss to UNC (86-83) that the Tar Heels can be pressured into a shootout and that holes can be poked in the Tar Heels’ transition defense.

Those weaknesses play into Marquette’s strengths. The Golden Eagles showed willingness to shoot and the ability to set up and make the long three point shot. Carolina is a team whose defensive strength is lies most in its size, from forwards Harrison Barnes, John Henson and Tyler Zeller. If Marquette can out run Carolina, the Tar Heels could face another uncomfortably close contest.

Advantage: North Carolina


(1) Ohio State Buckeyes vs (4) Kentucky Wildcats

The Ohio State Buckeyes face the Kentucky Wildcats in one of the only “chalk” matchups of the Sweet 16 (the other being BYU-Florida in the Southeast). Kentucky has been a consistently inconsistent “top flight” team throughout the season. OSU, for the most part, has been the model of consistency. At this stage of the tournament, consistency has an advantage.

Brandon Knight's first points vs Princeton, with 2 seconds left. Better late than never.... 3 

Brandon Knight of Kentucky finally stopped hitting the snooze bar to hit the game winning bucket in the first round against Princeton only for the Wildcats to recover and comfortably lead West Virginia in the final minutes. The Buckeyes, as expected, have treated their opponents as cannon fodder or practice dummies (whichever comparison fits best) in the tourney. I expect nothing less than a victory - maybe a blowout…maybe undecided until the final three minutes - from OSU for those reasons, regardless of which Kentucky team shows up.

Advantage: Ohio State


West Region

(1) Duke Blue Devils vs (5) Arizona Wildcats

The Blue Devils, while surviving a scare from 8th seeded Michigan, have nonetheless looked like defending National Champions. The return of point guard Kyrie Irving to the Blue Devils lineup has proven to be the spark that many expected. The Wildcats, led by Derrick Williams’ clutch play, have probably appeared on many radars for the first time after their win in the final seconds over Texas, a team many thought would be in the Final Four.

It is tough to call a #5 seed a Cinderella, but considering the dramatic fashion in which Arizona survived the first two rounds, some may have the urge to use words like “destiny” to describle the Wildcats’ 2011 Tournament run. I’ll drink the destiny Kool-Aid if Arizona beats Duke but I think this semi-Cinderella has its horseless carriage turn into a squash as Duke delivers the stroke of midnight.

Advantage: Duke



(3) Connecticut Huskies vs (2) San Diego State Aztecs

In the days between the Big East Tournament Final and the beginning of the NCAA Tournament, I repeatedly heard how Connecticut would be “tired” from have played five games in five days. The Huskies would be “winded”. Could they keep up? I think they have answered that question nicely with double-digit victory margins, over Bucknell and Cincinnati, in their first two games of the tournament.

Jimmer Fredette, the bain of SDSU's season. 4

San Diego State has been among the few programs that is unbeaten against every school without the “Jimmer Show”. Connecticut has none, either. However, “Kemba’s Corner” is similarly impressive and has been as daunting for UConn’s opponents in the Big Dance.

I would feel very comfortable in picking Connecticut to advance were they not a (unpredictable) Big East team. The 11 Big East schools in the tournament could easily convince me that up is down with the performances and results I have observed thus far. Still, when a relatively unproven mid-major power faces a strong, major-conference school (even the Big East), I lean toward the establishment.

Advantage: Connecticut


Tomorrow: The Southwest and Southeast regions!

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1) Image from seattlepi.com
2) Image from sbnation.com
3) Imange from local12.com
4) Image from nydailynews.com