NFL Preview 2013 – NFC

The NFL season kicks off in two days! It's like the start of spring for sports fans in America. Every year, the Hat Trick gives you its projections and every year, about half of them are...WRONG! That, of course means I am right half of the time. Read with a grain of salt or at your own risk! Teams are listed in expected order of finish in their divisions.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers – About the only "easy" projection in this division is who will finish first. The North has a ton of talent and timeless rivalries. But the team in green is still the toast of the Black and Blue Division. As long as Aaron Rodgers is under center in this division, there is no compelling reason to expect another team to finish first until it actually happens or Rodgers suffers some type of injury. 


Chicago Bears – Speculating on the second through fourth place finishes in this division amounts to little more than educated guessing. I think the Bears made a huge mistake in firing Head Coach Lovie Smith last season, but I do like the glimpse of the 2013 Bears under rookie Head Coach Marc Trestman. His experience and offensive mind is going to go a long way in further developing the very talented and, in my opinion, underrated Jay Cutler. The defense, in the first year without future Hall of Famer Brian Urlacher, looks aggressive and full of swagger as usual. 


Detroit Lions – Detroit had one fatal flaw in 2012: the Lions could not run the ball, especially when running the ball counted most. I expect that to change this year with the acquisition of Reggie Bush via free agency. Aside from being one of the most dangerous backs in the league when in space, Bush proved he could pound the rock through the line during his time in Miami. The defensive line is as good as any one in football. Matt Stafford appears to be healthy, a key indicator of success or failure for the Lions. By the way, they have some Megatron guy lined up wide. 


Minnesota Vikings – Just because I expect them to finish last doesn't mean they will. But I see few significant upgrades to an absolutely anemic passing game with the exception of the acquisition of veteran wideout Greg Jennings. They also sent star WR Percy Harvin to the Seattle Seahawks (Harvin may miss the entire 2013 season with a hip injury). This team has Jared Allen rushing the edge and a group of linebackers that is tough against the run. They also have Adrian "All Day" Peterson who is healthy and coming off of a 2,000 year rushing season. The Vikings will have a chance in every game. But if you can't throw downfield and can't force turnovers, it is tough to win more games than you lose.

A.P. leaving a rival defense in the dust. Get used to it. 1

NFC South

New Orleans Saints – Last season, I all but admitted to expecting this team to finish second in the NFC South but picked them first because I was looking at them through black and gold colored lenses. I was correct; they finished in a three way tie for second with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers. They were also 7-9, so that was not a positive outcome. 

This year, my gut tells me the Falcons will win the division, but I am going to wear my Who Dat shades with a little more confidence this year. Brass tacks: the offense under Drew Brees and the returned-from-exile Head Coach Sean Payton is going to be ridiculously good. Beyond the elite play calling and signal calling talent, the Saints have an embarrassment of riches and depth at all of the skill positions. My only reservation was the left tackle position given the departure of Pro Bowler Jermon Bushrod. However, former second round draft pick Charles Brown appears to be over his lingering injury issues that have plagued his career and appears to be ready to fulfill the promise he showed out of USC.

My concern with this team is its defense, the worst total defense in NFL history in 2012 (first ever to surrender 7,000 total yards). It has pass rushing talent, but took a blow when veteran Pro Bowl outside linebacker Will Smith was lost for the season with a knee injury. Middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma had yet another surgery on the same knee that has dogged him for three years running, though he is expected to not miss any games. I see no personnel improvements for stopping the run. However, defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, with his 3-4 scheme, might have cracked the code to get this group of defenders to the level of forcing turnovers at the level of the 2009 Super Bowl champion Saints defense. 

Time will tell. If this team plays up to its ability and Drew Brees takes care of the football better than last year, I do expect the Saints to win the division. 


Atlanta Falcons – If you read this blog with any kind of regularity, I need not explain the contempt of my fanhood toward the Falcons. That said, I cannot let my biases blind me. The Falcons are a very good team and this is a "Super Bowl or bust" year for them. Matt Ryan is approaching the ranks of an elite NFL quarterback and a Super Bowl win, possibly just an appearance, will vault him into that top tier.

The addition of running back Steven Jackson is going to give this team a boost. The future Hall of Famer is on the "wrong side of 30", entering his 10th year in the NFL. However, two common threads I have noticed in older running backs performing at an elite level are good health and consistency. Jackson has played in 14 or more games in all but two years of his career and never missed more than four games in any season. Excluding his rookie year, Jackson has run for 1,000 or more yards every year on an abysmal St. Louis Rams team. I am unaware of any health issues so I expect Jackson, in a pass oriented offense, to be a headache for opposing defenses.

The Falcons' D left much to be desired last season and, in my opinion, is the reason it failed to win the NFC Championship last year. They addressed that in the draft, thoroughly. I like the additions of cornerbacks Robert Alford and Desmond Trufant. The Falcons drafted a total of six defensive players in the 2013 NFL Draft. I cannot imagine them not improving on that side of the ball, barring injuries.



Carolina Panthers – This team's rise or fall will depend entirely upon the progress of quarterback Cam Newton. Statistically, Newton had a slight improvement over his impressive 2011 rookie season. Some of his comments in the media drew speculation about his ability to lead a team. 

Personally, I think a lot of the "concern" over what Newton did or did not say after tough losses is a story for the sake of the media wanting to promote a story. But the bottom line is that the Panthers' defense is good enough to win a lot of games and the offense can put up yards. 

The Panthers need to start putting games away. While the D had some late game lapses, with the exception of Head Coach Ron Rivera, the responsibility for winning or losing close games ultimately falls at the feet of Newton, the quarterback. I don't know if this team can reach the playoffs, but I think a winning season is not an unreasonable expectation for the Panthers and Newton in his third year out of Auburn.



Tampa Bay Buccaneeers – This team could not stop the pass last year. They were so porous that it was almost unbelievable, with the second worst passing defense in NFL history (2011 Packers). That will almost certainly improve with the acquisition of former All-Pro cornerback Derrelle Revis. The big question mark is quarterback Josh Freeman. He's an enigma. Year in and year out, Bucs fans don't know which Freeman is going to show up. One would expect him to improve with coaching stability under second year Head Coach Greg Schiano but I won't believe it until I see it.  

It's a two team race in the NFC South again. 2

NFC East

New York Giants – Wholesale injuries on defense forced quarterback Eli Manning to press more on offense which led to more turnovers and more losses. I expect the Giants to be back in the playoffs next year. Injury lightning like that does not strike many teams twice, especially a well run Tom Coughlin coached team like the Giants. When the players on this team are in sync, they have no major weaknesses. The same cannot be said for the rest of the NFC East.


Washington Redskins – The elephant in the room on this team is the health of quarterback Robert Griffin, III's surgically repaired knee. The world will find out this coming Monday night when the Redskins host the Philadelphia Eagles. 

Washington's pass defense was bad. The pass rush has to improve. The Redskins, while near the top of the league in defensive interceptions, was in the lower third of the league in quarterback sacks and as a result they were third from last in total passing defense. 

The Redskins picked four defensive players in the 2013 NFL Draft and resigned former Pro Bowl cornerback DeAngelo Hall in the offseason. In addition, some of those passing yards can be accounted for by opposing teams trailing and attempting more passes. Still, the pass defense from the front four through the secondary has to tighten up for this Redskins team to make a serious playoff run.


Dallas Cowboys – I expect the Cowboys to be really bad and I expect John Q. Fan to blame quarterback Tony Romo. It will not be Romo's fault though his stat line might suggest so. This team has zero depth at running back. I see the firing to defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, who was over a gradually improving defense, as a big mistake. You can't make chicken salad out of chicken feed and the fact that neither the Pokes' running nor passing defenses were in the bottom ten (given the personnel and their standing when Ryan arrived in Dallas) would be a compelling argument to retain Ryan. Still, what owner Jerry Jones wants, Jerry Jones gets, logic and facts be damned. I think it is going to be another underwhelming year in North Texas.


Philadelphia Eagles – I think the Eagles are going to have a lot of growing pains under first year Head Coach Chip Kelly. Quarterback Michael Vick's health is going to determine how viable this Eagles team is. Kelly's offense is custom built for Vick's skill set. However, Vick playing an entire 16 game season is a rarity. The loss of starting wide receiver Jeremy Maclin for the season is going to be a significant setback. While I really like the addition of Connor Barwin as a linebacker in the 3-4 defensive scheme, I don't see the improvement to the defensive line to suggest that there will be a major improvement, especially against the run. I've been wrong before, though. 

Some critics argue that Tony Romo (flat on his back, right) was overpaid when he signed his recent contract extension with the Cowboys. Having to face the likes of Jason Pierre-Paul (body-slamming Romo, left) with the supporting cast he's been given, I don't think he was paid enough.

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers – The rise of quarterback Colin Kaepernick was a game changer in San Francisco last season. I don't think they reach the Super Bowl without him. Still, there is a risk of a sophomore slump. The 49ers brass brought in a solid reinforcement in wide receiver Anquan Bolin, acquired via trade from the Baltimore Ravens that beat the 49ers in Super Bowl XLVII. Unfortunately, the football gods giveth and the gods taketh away. 

Wide receiver Michael Crabtree tore his Achilles tendon in the offseason. Optimistic projections have Crabtree coming back in November. Still, the 49ers are a team with zero glaring weaknesses and as long as Kaepernick stays healthy, I expect the 49ers to be in the NFC Championship Game with the strongest chance of reaching the super Bowl of any NFC team. 


Seattle Seahawks – The Seahawks' success caught me completely by surprise last season. There are no surprises this year. The only surprise for Seahawks fans is the hip injury to coveted offseason acquisition wide receiver Percy Harvin. How that affects second year quarterback Russell Wilson's ability to bring the Seahawks to the next level remains to be seen. But this team is solid on defense, solid on the ground, and is capable of winning any game with Wilson under center. 

St. Louis Rams – The Rams have put the necessary pieces around quarterback Sam Bradford, on both sides of the ball, to enable him to lead this team to a winning record. What Sam Bradford can do depends on Sam Bradford. In his fourth NFL season, it is time for him to poop or get off of the pot if he is going to be the future if this franchise. Picking up All-Pro left tackle Jake Long should help Bradford sleep a little more easily at night before a game. The big hole left at running back by the departure of Steven Jackson to the Falcons may require the occasional No-Doz (unless it is a substance banned by the NFL). The Rams could either be a surprise sleeper team in 2013 or just put people to sleep...as usual.


Arizona Cardinals – Adding quarterback Carson Palmer and running back Rashard Mendenhall in the offseason will improve an offense that could not have been much worse in 2012. Their defense can hold its own and has talented players. Cornerback Patrick Peterson is a stud by any standard and I am looking forward to seeing how fellow former LSU player Tyrann Mathieu (A.K.A. the "Honey Badger") performs at free safety in his rookie season. I don't expect much more than a mediocre season from the Cardinals in 2013, but mediocre with some competitive closely contested losses is a step in the right direction for the Cards' rookie Head Coach Bruce Arians, the 2012 Associated Press NFL Coach of the Year as an interim coach with the Indianapolis Colts.

Sam Bradford's ex-girlfriend Karlie Kloss bolted off of the Cherokee quarterback's reservation. Was it addition by subtraction? And did she really have to wear a Native American tribal headdress at the Victoria's Secret fashion show to take a swipe at Bradford? What a BITCH!

Don't forget to vote in the fan polls! 


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NFL Home Stretch: The NFC

Just before the start of the regular season, we previewed all 16 NFC and all 16 AFC teams. Twelve games into the season, we have some answers, some questions, and some surprises. The preseason commentary is in black; week 14 commentary is in blue. Enjoy!

NFC North

Green Bay Packers (8-4) – This team learned the hard way that an NFL team can have arguably the best quarterback in the game and the best offense in the game. When the calendar turns to January, teams have to be able to run with competence and stop the run with competence (not necessarily “excellence”, but competence). Incompetence in those areas combined with costly turnovers equal an early exit. I expect the Pack to improve in those areas in 2012.

This team is going to the playoffs and I think they have more in the tank down the home stretch than the Chicago Bears. They could be the team that flies under the radar, heading into the playoffs (if that's possible). They still have a huge hole in their running  game that should concern any Packers fan.   

Detroit Lions (4-8) – This team had a breakthrough in 2011 and as long as quarterback Matt Stafford remains healthy, they will be no one year wonder. If Kevin Smith stays healthy and resembles anything to himself in his first two years in the NFL, a deep Lions run through the NFC Playoffs is not far fetched.

No team has tasted more bitter waters of defeat than the Lions. This is a talented team that has piled up too many close losses in a game of inches. Seven of their eight losses have been by a touchdown or less, with three by three or less including two in overtime. Sunday's collapse on the final play of the game against the Indianapolis Colts was the coups de gras. 


Chicago Bears (8-4) – Speaking of “not far fetched” it is not far fetched for the Bears to be the third team from the NFC North to reach the playoffs. Their leaders on both sides of the ball are the “X” factors. If quarterback Jay Cutler stays healthy, the Bears will be in the discussion in December. Middle linebacker Brian Urlacher is a bigger variable than Cutler. Cutler, by all accounts, is healthy coming into the season, Urlacher isn’t. If 80% of Brian Urlacher is better than 100% of most linebackers, the Bears could be playing in January.

The Bears have looked like a Super Bowl contender all season, but their collapse in the final minutes against the Seattle Seahawks at home on Sunday raise a red flag on this team's ability to close out games against quality opponents. I think the Bears will reach the playoffs as a Wild Card but I don't think their offensive line is good enough to carry this team through a deep run in the NFC.

Minnesota Vikings (6-6) – Their strongest asset, running back Adrian Peterson, is a big uncertainty as he is coming back from a torn ACL. I expect quarterback Christian Ponder to go through more hard knocks in his sophomore season. I think the Vikings will be more competitive than they were last season, but I also expect them to finish in the cellar again.

This team is much improved. Big props to Leslie Frasier. The Cinderella carriage ride stops here. They've lost four of their last five and the losing will continue. If you can't throw, you can't win and the Vikings' December schedule is stout.

Adrian Peterson came back strong! Too bad the rest of the offense has yet to follow. 1

NFC South

New Orleans Saints (5-7) – Prior to this preseason, I would have picked the Saints to finish second in the division to the Atlanta Falcons. However, quarterback Drew Brees, in all of his first unit reps, appears to be worth every nickel of the $40 million he is going to earn this season. “Coach on the field” gets thrown around often when describing players with top flight leadership abilities. I am beginning the think that the label may literally apply to Brees. The paycheck certainly will.

To quote Bugs Bunny, "I could be wrong, you know!" I guess coaching really does matter. I am not convinced that this team is incapable of ripping off wins in its final four games against the New York Giants, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dallas Cowboys, and Carolina Panthers. The problem for the Who Dat Nation is that the Seahawks, St. Louis Rams, and Washington Redskins control their own fates before the Saints do. 

Atlanta Falcons (11-1) – The coach, Mike Smith, is good. The quarterback, Matt Ryan, is good. The receivers, Roddy White and Julio Jones, are good. The home field advantage is good. I expect the Falcons to have a “good” year but, if they are playing ball in January, I expect a “grand opening…grand closing” playoff performance from this team.

They won the NFC South like they have every other season dating back to 2008. Big deal. Call me when they win a playoff game.

Carolina Panthers (3-9) – This team is the “wild card” of the division. A number of variables will need to come together, particularly the back seven on defense, for the Panthers to have a winning season. They are also stuck having to play the Saints and Falcons twice per year. However, I am “all in” on the stock of second year quarterback Cam Newton. Through him, all things on the gridiron are possible. Assuming Newton is healthy, this is going to be a very fun team to watch in 2012, playoffs or not.

This has been a fun team to watch, if they are your favorite team's opponent. This is the Hard Luck Loser of the Year in 2012, with seven of their nine losses coming by six points or less, often losing leads in the final minutes. This is not a team that anyone should want to play. Once they start figuring out how to close out games and win, they are going to be a very tough out...next year.

Tampa Bay Buccaneeers (6-6) – Expect the house cleaning that began at the end of 2011 with former Head Coach Raheem Morris to extend to underachieving quarterback Josh Freeman if his play doesn’t turn around in 2012. Rookie Head Coach Greg Schiano has a monster of a turnaround job in front of him. A competitive 7-9 record could merit Coach of The Year consideration because the Bucs are that bad!

This has been my 2012 NFC Whiskey Tango Foxtrot pick. Greg Schiano has this team believing in itself and the offense has done a complete "180". Still their secondary is aging and/or injured and cannot stop anyone. I don't know who will take the second wild Card spot in the NFC, but it won't be the Bucs. 

December has often given Falcons Fan something to cheer about. January has been another tale. 2

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles (3-9) – The NFC East is a beast! Philadelphia has had the most talented skill position players on paper since last season, but it took too long for everything to come together and the Eagles finished 8-8. Andy Reid is coaching for his job in 2012, but he’s coaching with a fully loaded, fully armored tank. The health of quarterback Mike Vick will decide this team’s fate. I do not expect Vick to start all 16 games, but I expect the Eagles to win enough games to win this division, however it comes.

What I don't know could fill a book and the NFC East could have an entire chapter in that book. Boy did I whiff on the Eagles! In my own defense, however, I said that the health of Mike Vick would decide this team's fate. His bill of health has been anything but clean and so has the Eagles' season. Andy Reid has had a great run during his 14 years in Philly, but all good things must come to an end. And his tenure will. 

New York Giants (7-5) – The defending Super Bowl champions are going to be a tough out this year. The problem is that defending champions, in recent years, have had such a big target on their backs that they only advance so far in the years following their super Bowl wins. In addition to wearing this year’s biggest bullseye, the Giants have to play the Eagles twice, the Cowboys twice, and the Redskins (who may not be a pushover with QB Robert Griffin, III) twice. They could win this division and they could make the playoffs. It will be very difficult, though.

The G-men are in a mini-funk, losing three of their last four. This is a team that sleepwalks until it can ill-afford to, then they blow everyone's doors off. I expect them to win the division and I expect them to be the toughest out in the playoffs. 

Dallas Cowboys (6-6) – I need to give this team an extra paragraph. This is the first time in five years I have entered the season not thinking that the Cowboys were the most talented team in the NFC. Last year, however, their weaknesses began to show. I cannot help but think that former Head Coach Wade Phillips, often the scapegoat for the postseason shortcomings of America’s Team, helped mask the deficiencies to the Cowboys defense.

DeMarcus Ware said in a radio interview last year that he thought he was the best player in the NFL. I am not convinced that statement is untrue, but I have to call the quality of the secondary into question. The receiving corps impressed me as being inconsistent and sometimes undisciplined. The bright spots on the offense are over-criticized quarterback Tony Romo and (should he remain healthy) running back DeMarco Murray.

This team is right in the thick of things, in theory. They are only one game back of the division lead, mathematically. Get ready for the Cowboys' Annual December Train Wreck starring Jerry Jones and co-starring Tony Romo. To borrow another Looney Tunes line from Sylvester, "Now sit back and watch the fun!"

Washington Redskins (6-6) – This team has some questionable management and coaching practices during the Mike Shanahan era. What has not been questioned is the wisdom of drafting quarterback Robert Griffin, III with the second pick in this year’s NFL Draft. He has not taken a regular season snap yet, but all pre-debut indicators could not be more promising for this future superstar. If Griffin does what I think he is capable of doing, I think he can will this previously hapless and dysfunctional team to a six win season, which would be progress.

If the Seahawks slip, I expect the Redskins to step in and take the final Wild Card spot. You heard it here first. The secondary, however, is just awful. To quote Redskins cornerback DeAngelo Hall, "It isn't rocket science." If you cannot stop the pass, you have to out-pass your opponents and as talented as Robert Griffin, III is, the Skins aren't at that level yet.

Not probable, but not (yet) impossible. 3

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers (8-3-1) – The East is a beast but the West is certainly not the best. The 49ers are loaded everywhere except at quarterback and wide receiver, possibly the most important two position combination is a pass oriented league. Alex Smith had a breakthrough in 2011, but it was more of a “don’t lose the game” breakthrough rather than a playmaking breakthrough. That is not enough to win a championship in the NFL. The addition of Randy Moss could prove to be interesting. But this Niners team is not built to be pass happy and Moss, while in great shape from all accounts, is on the wrong side of age 35.

I understand the excitement over quarterback Colin Kaepernick, but there is a reason Alex Smith was the starter at the beginning of the year. Sunday's fourth quarter meltdown against the St. Louis Rams is a textbook example of why the Niners, who are among the best in the NFL in every facet of the game other than the passing game, should stick with steady and experienced Alex Smith, in spite of his limited playmaking ability. Smith has not made mistakes during the past two seasons and the Niners need to be as mistake free as possible if they expect to make it to the Super Bowl this year.

Arizona Cardinals (4-8) – The Cardinals could be a sleeper for the Wild Card if Kevin Kolb or John Skelton can just play mistake free football. I could walk on to an NFL team at age 37 if I cut my body fat down to 8% and reduced my 40 yard dash time to 4.5. I’ll let you guys connect the dots.

Well, I may have had a side of crow with my dinner if you read this after the first month of the season. Instead the Cardinals became the first team in NFL history to post a 4-8 record after a 4-0 start. 

St. Louis Rams (5-6-1) – I expect this team to win six to eight games, but if Sam Bradford has the breakthrough that coaches expected him to have through his third season, the Rams could be a surprise team in the NFC. Bradford missed much of the season due to injury last year and the support he had while healthy was non existent. The Rams made some very high-value draft picks, including defensive tackle Michael Brockers out of LSU and former Florida cornerback Janoris Jenkins. This team is going to give some of the “better” teams some trouble this year.

So far, I hit the bullseye on the Rams. Jeff Fisher should receive some votes for Coach of the Year as he has quickly turned this team around. They have to be taken seriously and Fisher's defensive mind is clearly reflected upon his young players. The Rams only have one opponent with a winning record for the remainder of the regular season (Seahawks). A playoff appearance is not likely, but not completely far-fetched.

Seattle Seahawks (7-5) – This team could sniff .500 or already be on the clock for the first pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. The receivers are mediocre. The offensive line is mediocre. The defense is mediocre. Running back Marshawn Lynch is a monster, however, and rookie quarterback Russell Wilson has a high ceiling. The team will go as far as Wilson develops in his rookie year. Perhaps the Ocean Birds can exceed low expectations.

This team spent the first half of the season playing above its ability (and getting extremely lucky) and now they think they're a legit contender. Sunday's overtime win at Chicago is slowly making a believer out of me.The ball is in their court and, on paper, they only have one tough game remaining in the regular season, against the 49ers on December 23rd.

One event...one questionable call has sent a ripple effect through the NFC playoff race. 4

Tomorrow: the AFC!

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NFL – One Quarter Point – the NFC

Four weeks of the NFL season are in the books and nothing is as we expected. The New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers, and New Orleans Saints do not have winning records. Meanwhile, the Arizona Cardinals (along with the Atlanta Falcons and Houston Texans) are undefeated. Down is up; up is down.

Today the Hat Trick is going to boil it down for you in one paragraph or less for all 16 NFC teams. Where are they? Where are they going? And how?

NFC North

Minnesota Vikings (3-1) – The Vikings are in first place in the NFC North with the tiebreaker advantage over the Chicago Bears. This is a head scratcher. The Vikings appeared to be a team in much disarray heading into this season. Adrian Peterson (332 yds., 2 TD, 4.2 ypc.) was coming off of a torn ACL. Christian Ponder (824 yds., 4 TD, 0 INT, 68% comp.) did not have the smoothest rookie year. So far, AP is back and Ponder looks like all he was cracked up to be coming out of Florida State. Give Head Coach Leslie Frazier some credit, too.

Chicago Bears (3-1) – Smothering defense plus a healthy Jay Cutler (917 yds., 5 TD, 6 INT, 57% comp.) will give the Bears as good of a chance as any team to win the NFC North. How long injured running back Matt Forte (163 yds., 1 TD, 4.5 ypc.) is on the shelf will play a role in shaping the division. But, perhaps, the most important and more difficult to predict variable is Cutler himself. Last night, while dismantling the Dallas Cowboys, he looked like he was playing up to his potential. Can he keep his temperament and his ego in check?

Green Bay Packers (2-2) – What is wrong in Green Bay? They’ve played four games and only have one win (over the Bears) that instills confidence in its fans. The other three games have been losses to the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks and a win over the New Orleans Saints sparked by the points from a potential Saints game winning field goal being taken off of the board due to a holding penalty. Yes, the Seattle game was stolen from them, but when they only scored 12 points on the road and couldn’t run the ball, they put themselves in position to be robbed of the win. Someone else besides Cedric Benson (228 yds., 1 TD, 3.6 ypc.) needs to run the ball effectively.

Detroit Lions (1-3) – Talk about hard luck losers. The Lions lost games to the Tennessee Titans and Minnesota Vikings, ultimately, because of failed kick coverage. The Titans executed the Music City Miracle II on a punt return for a touchdown along with two other long returns for touchdowns (on a kickoff and a fumble) and won in overtime. Then the Lions kept the Vikings’ offense out of the end zone all day, but allowed a kickoff return for a touchdown and a punt return for a touchdown, losing by six. Detroit needs to recoup the lost wins, but their passing game is stout, their defense is good, and their running game is better than last year. Don’t write them off yet.

How often could history keep repeating itself at the Lions' expense? 1

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons (4-0) – That the Falcons offense continues to put up lofty numbers is not a surprise. That they are undefeated through four weeks is. The Falcons are protecting the quarterback better than they did last year and are among the best in the NFL at forcing turnovers. Atlanta will have to tighten up its run defense, as teams have been having their way with the Falcons on the ground, but they are going to be an extremely tough out in the regular season. Barring an injury to quarterback Matt Ryan (1,162 yds., 11 TD, 2 INT, 69% comp.), I don’t see them being challenged for the NFC South division this year.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3) – Beyond the front four on the Bucs defensive line, I see little cause for optimism. Defensive tackle Gerald McCoy (11 tak., 3 sacks, 1 FF), and defensive end Michael Bennett (9 tak., 4 sacks, 2 FF) have earned their keep and then some, making the running game an unappealing option for opponents. The passing game couldn’t be more attractive for Bucs foes, as Tampa is dead last in the league against the pass. Their running game is hapless and their quarterback play is hopeless. Rookie Head Coach Greg Schiano has them playing competitively with an attitude, but he has a lot of work to do.

Carolina Panthers (1-3) – Another hard luck losing team. The Panthers snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in Atlanta on Sunday. The offense is continuing to put out enough to give the team a chance to win. The problem is that the defense cannot be counted on to stop anyone at key moments. It was the diagram for their choke job in the Georgia Dome over the weekend. I expect this team to win more than their 2011 total of six games. The question is: will it be seven wins? Eight? Can they still get to nine?

New Orleans Saints (0-4) BOOM! Bah-bah BOOM! Bah-bah BOOM! Hear that? It’s the Fat Lady making her way down from her dressing room.

MY TEAM! The Saints! WHO DAT! “Who Dat” may soon be a question rather than an exclamation as Saints fans are on the brink of arriving to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome wearing bags on their heads. The Saints offense (3rd in the NFL in passing and 8th in the NFL overall) is as good as it ever was, in spite of the yearlong suspension of Head Coach Sean Payton and six game suspension of Assistant Head Coach Joe Vitt. Unfortunately, the defense can’t stop a runny nose and is riddled with injuries. I won’t stick the fork in them yet, as the team looked much sharper in Lambeau Field against the Packers, but the needle on the thermometer is approaching “DONE” very quickly.

It's only a matter of time, Saints fans. 2

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) – Yes they’re 3-1, but they’ve kind of Forrest Gumped their way there. The offense is high output and the defense is stingy. There’s talent all over the field. But the turnovers are unacceptably high and, frankly, the Eagles got an assist from lady luck in their wins over the Cleveland Browns and New York Giants. Still, a win is a win in the NFL and there is no need for style points when playing the defending champs as they did on Sunday Night Football. The foundation is extremely strong; the mental errors need to stop if this team is going to make a serious Super Bowl run.

Dallas Cowboys (2-2) – Same old Cowboys…. When the spotlight is on, they disappear. After sneaking up on the defending Super Bowl Champion New York Giants to open the NFL season, the Cowboys have simply vanished. They’ve abandoned the run and last night, against the Bears, the offensive line appears to think that pass protection is a luxury for quarterback Tony Romo (1,148 yds., 5 TD, 8 INT, 67% comp.) rather than a necessity. Romo needs to stop being so aggressive when his teammates are not doing so or aren’t focused. The results are catastrophic.

Washington Redskins (2-2) – A .500 Redskins team after the month of September is a mild pleasant surprise. Rookie quarterback Robert Griffin III (1,070, 4 TD, 1 INT, 69%) has been all he was cracked up to be when he was selected #2 overall in the 2012 NFL Draft. The Skins have the offensive skins on the wall to hang with anyone. The loss of safety LaRon Landry to the New York Jets via free agency has been painfully obvious, though, and the Skins have not stopped anyone in the air. This will be a growing pains year for Griffin, but it has been fun to watch!

New York Giants (2-2) – This team is following the same script that had a big question mark over its head until the final weeks of the 2011 regular season. Vanilla running game (at best)…uninspired defensive play that generates the occasional key turnover. Eli Manning (1,320 yds., 7 TD, 4 INT, 64% comp.) and the receiving corps can only carry the team so far. With Tom Coughlin as Head Coach, however, I would not be overly concerned…yet.

This is just the tip of the iceberg for Robert Griffin fever. 3

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals (4-0) – I’m sure it has been fun for fans in Phoenix to see their football team start off perfect through four games. This house of Cards will collapse sooner than later (pun intended).

They can’t run the ball. They don’t try to run the ball. They don’t pass well. They don’t have any potent, game changing receiving options after Larry Fitzgerald (22 rec., 245 yds., 2 TD) and no respectable options after Andre Roberts (15 rec., 229 yds., 4 TD). Quarterback Kevin Kolb (752 yds., 7 TD, 2 INT, 63% comp.) has been efficient when he can get the ball out of his hands, but there has been no reason truly fear the offense. The key so far has been a defense that has bent a lot but then breaks opponents by forcing turnovers, but with no offensive firepower, the Cards undefeated run can only last so long.

San Francisco 49ers (3-1) – The 49ers took their eyes off the prize against the Vikings, then responded by bludgeoning the New York Jets in their own house. This team’s kryptonite is the complete lack of power in its passing game. Quarterback Alex Smith (784 yds., 5 TD, 1 INT, 67% comp.) has eliminated the critical mistakes, but he still doesn’t move the team with his arm. This will be a problem, particularly in the playoffs, if the Niners fall behind in games.

St. Louis Rams (2-2) – The Rams made some key defensive draft picks and acquisitions in the offseason and it is paying dividends. I don’t think the Rams will reach the playoffs, but I do think they will be tough to beat week in and week out. They need to tighten up a bit more against the run and give quarterback Sam Bradford (881 yds., 4 TD, 4 INT, 62% comp.) more chances to open the throttle, but this team is building itself on step at a time.

Seattle Seahawks (2-2) – Old school, smash mouth, power football and lock down defense (and a big assist from the officials) has the Seahawks at .500 after the first month. The passing game is nonexistent, however, and with a rookie quarterback in Russell Wilson (594 yds., 4 TD, 4 INT, 60% comp.), I don’t not foresee that changing much. They are going to keep the training wheels on him. The entire offense is going to ride on the back of workhorse running back Marshawn Lynch (423 yds., 2 TD, 4.6 ypc.).

TOUCHOUT! 4

Later this week: the AFC!

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The NFL Playoffs Are for Losers!

Approaching the final two weeks of the regular season, the playoff picture in the National Football League is becoming clearer. Mathematically, some playoff possibilities have become certainties. The Atlanta Falcons, New England Patriots, and Pittsburgh Steelers are in the playoffs. And, with two weeks remaining in the regular season, it is certain that the NFC West Division champion will not be a team with a winning record.

The St. Louis Rams (6-8), Seattle Seahawks (6-8), and San Francisco 49ers (5-9) are the top three teams in the division and none of them have any possibility of concluding the regular season with a winning record. Looking at the remaining schedules of all three teams, it is probable that the NFC West winner will finish with a 7-9, losing, record. No team, through a division title or wild card, has ever reached the NFL playoffs with a losing record in a nonstrike season.



San Francisco 49ers coach Mike Singletary: possibly the only silver lining of the NFC West sending a team to the playoffs. At least we will get a whopper of a soundbite when the Niners find a new way to embarrass him and get bounced in the first round. 1

Further complicating this issue is the fact that the Wild Card teams in the NFC will have winning records. In all probability, one or more teams with winning records will be eliminated from the playoffs. It is also possible that the defending Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saints could finish the season with a 12-4 record and be compelled to travel to play at a 7-9 team in the first round of the playoffs. These counter-intuitive playoff scenarios, with teams winning 75% of their games having to visit a sub .500 team to keep their season alive, have been the focus of much debate in the sports media.

It Is Good Enough for the NBA

The playoffs of the National Basketball Association are immensely popular and are successful from a ratings standpoint each year. For many, fans, basketball season does not "really" start until late April. The NBA almost always has losing teams in its playoffs, particularly from the Eastern Conference in recent years. This has not prevented exciting first round matchups, such as the eighth seeded, sub .500 Atlanta Hawks pushing the eventual NBA Champion and first seeded Boston Celtics to a seventh and deciding game in the 2008 playoffs.

The NBA, however, plays an 82 game regular season that begins in late October and lasts six months. Basketball is a sport in which a lucky bounce, a generous judgment call by an official, or a minor injury to a key player can ultimately decide the outcome of a game. The top eight teams in each conference reach the NBA playoffs, for a total of 16 teams. What the 16 team, tournament structure of the NBA playoffs does is allow all but the bottom feeders of the league to have several opportunities to advance in best of seven series matchups. The 82 game regular season and the best of seven format in the playoffs smooths out much of the random, less team skill related factors influencing the outcome of games. The National Hockey League also implements a similar regular season length and playoff structure.

PLAYOFFS?!? 6

The problem with the NBA structure, if one attempted to apply it to the NFL, is a practical one: football is too physical and traumatic on the body to play anywhere near the number games that other sports, with FAR less contact, play each year. While the gaps in actual talent between the team with the best record and the team with the second best record (and subsequent teams in order of winning percentage) may be razor thin, if not non-existent, the same gap between the best and eighth best team in each conference is usually quite visible. Fans know the difference. It is not worth the additional toll on players' bodies and the dilution of the team talent participating in the NFL playoffs to allow four additional teams, of whom some, every year, will likely have losing records, for the trade off of a marginal increase in television viewership and playoff ticket sales. Allowing more losers to participate in the post season would be to the detriment of the NFL product, not its benefit.

What Can Be Done About the Losers at the Party?

Should the NFL choose to change its playoff structure to reduce the reward to losing teams that qualify for the playoffs by winning a weak division, there are several options available. One option is to simply not allow a team that cannot win half of its games to participate in the post season. The NFL could remove the sub .500 division winner and reward the highest non division winner with the seed that the sub .500 team would otherwise occupy. A winning or break even team in another division could be rewarded with the final playoff spot.

These chicks thought the Seahawks were losers, too, but at least it was after the Seahawks lost the SUPER BOWL (XL)! Let's hope that doesn't happen this year. 2

Another option is to not preclude participation in the playoffs to a division leader with a losing record, but, instead, grant home field advantage in a playoff match, regardless of seeding, to the team with the better regular season record. This technique is used in the NBA and I find it to be a fair and equitable one. The aspect of a possible sub .500 NFC West winner that I find most outrageous is the possibility that such a team, with an unimpressive regular season performance, gets the privilege (both financial and strategic) of hosting a team with a stellar regular season performance, such as a 12-4 team. I think that the concerns about fundamental fairness that fans may have would be addressed satisfactorily by this solution.

Seahawks coach Pete Carroll: LOSER! 3

A third option would be to ignore the division structure and allow teams into the playoffs, from seeds one through six, based on regular season record. This may appear to be the fairest solution, but there are a number of scheduling and logistical considerations that would make such a fix a tough sell to the owners, media, and fans. There are too many teams in the NFL for each team to play every other team once. Without that type of schedule, a playoff system ignoring divisional alignment is neither fair nor practical.

Much like in 2007, the Rams are still LOSERS! 4

The reason that each division winner is rewarded with a playoff berth in its conference is that each team has a greater proportion of its games clustered with its division and within its conference. A round robin regular season schedule, even if possible (or limited to within one conference, so that all regular season games were intra-conference matchups) would water down the intensity (and fun) to the bi-annual divisional rivalries that fans and players enjoy now. The effort to change something wrong with the NFL by using a fair, straight, non-alignment-dependent seeding structure would reduce more of what is right with the NFL.

If It Ain't Broke, Don't Fix It

The NFL is the most popular sports product in American history. Its playoffs are a television ratings bonanza. The Super Bowl is usually the highest rated television broadcast every year. In spite of the pending competitive travesty that the NFL is likely to experience when the first round of the playoffs begin in January, I think that the current playoff structure of the league should remain unchanged.

Winners, no matter what happens 5

Every NFL team currently has a schedule structured such that it plays the greatest proportion of its games (38%) against teams within its division and 75% of its total games against teams within its conference. This breeds familiarity, rivalry and excitement, while addressing the fact that a limited number of games can be played in a given season. The playoffs should reflect this alignment similarly, with these groupings of teams being represented by the best within those groups, by those representative teams hosting a game in the post season. The 2010 season appears to be a very unusual year in which an entire division is void of an impressive team. It is disappointing, but very unusual, and not likely to happen in the near future. The NFL should not attempt to correct what is working well with a knee-jerk reaction to what is likely an isolated anomaly in the competitive landscape of the 2010 NFC playoffs.

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