MVP Talk, Part 2 - The Bridesmaids

On Wednesday, we looked at the three men I think are the front runners for the NBA's Most Valuable Player award, Derrick Rose of the Chicago Bulls, LeBron James of the Miami Heat, and Dwight Howard of the Orlando Magic. At the moment, I think those are the only three players with a realistic chance of actually finishing first in the MVP voting and winning the award. The following are players that I think should, at least, be in the discussion for the MVP and given some consideration by voters.

Kevin Durant – SF, Oklahoma City Thunder (28 PPG, 7 RPG)

For the second straight year, Kevin Durant will win the scoring title. He is too far ahead of LeBron James, with 20 games remaining, to lose the lead in any realistic scenario. Scoring (or preventing it) is the entire point of every single play in basketball, except for the late-game intentional foul phase. And Durant is not a one dimensional player.

Defenders should feel a little nervous when their eyes send this image to their brains. 1

However, the Thunder are in fourth place and there are other players with comparable stats who have “paid their dues”, so-to-speak, ahead of Durant. For that reason, I do not think Durant has a shot at actually winning the award. He does, however, warrant discussion. I also think it is a matter of time before Durant becomes the league’s MVP. Frankly, barring injury or insanity, I think it is a matter of time (albeit a very long time…I currently have no children but could be a grandparent by that time) before Durant gives an acceptance speech in Springfield.


Dirk Nowitzki – PF, Dallas Mavericks (23 PPG, 7 RPG, 53% FG, 43% 3PT)

The 2007 MVP winner is quietly having a career season. Dirk will probably not win the award for a number of reasons. He is not among the top 5 in scoring. He has already won the award. And his trademark absence on defense continues to be present (play on words intended).

What I find remarkable, and why I think voters should at least consider Nowitzki, is that one of his bigger weaknesses throughout his career (and I use the term “weakness” very loosely) is that he shoots the ball more often than he should at times. In 2011, his field goal and three point shooting percentages are both 5% above his career averages in those categories.

In addition, the Mavericks are in second place in the Western Conference. When Dirk missed three weeks of action between late December and mid January, the Mavs appeared to be going down in a ball of flames. Re-enter Dirk…Dallas had won 19 of its last 21 games, as of Wednesday morning. That isn’t a misprint. Dallas was 19-2 since January 22 at the time Part 1 of this series was published. Dallas has played its way into a remote possibility of overtaking the San Antonio Spurs, who have had the best record in the NBA since the beginning of the season. If that doesn’t warrant MVP consideration, what does?

Dirk is not likely to party like it's 2007, but he should at least get a look. 2

Kobe Bryant – SG, Los Angeles Lakers (25 PPG, 5 APG, 5 RPG)

Here is the deal with Kobe: I expect him to have no shot at winning the MVP award. That still does not mean that the prevailing opinion, at the time the award is announced, will not be the Kobe is still not the best player in the game (or, at least one of the best two along with LeBron). Kobe has multiple factors working against him in 2011 that I believe doom any chance the Black Mamba has of actually winning the award.

• He already won the award in 2008.

• The Lakers, the two time defending champs, are in third place in the Western Conference, very distant from the first place San Antonio Spurs.

• There is nothing exceptional about Kobe’s statistics, relative to his career.

The irony is that I think Bryant is more valuable to his team this season than at any time during the Lakers’ current championship run. The Lakers have been relatively inconsistent this season, losing head-scratching games in questionable manners to vastly inferior opponents. Kobe, on the other hand, has been a rock. His level of excellence has been constant and his leadership has repeatedly shaken the Lakers out of mini-funks this year. All of that said, the award can only go to one person and I think that several others stand out a bit too much for Kobe to have a shot of winning the MVP.


Kevin Love – PF, Minnesota Timberwolves (21 PPG, 16 RPG)

Kevin Love is the unequivocal MVP of any fantasy basketball league. However, Love will not win the real award for one, and only one, reason: his team SUCKS. Yes the MVP is an individual award, but that individual, clearly, is expected to elevate his team. In basketball, unlike football or baseball, one individual can potentially make a significant impact on the win loss column. For examples, see the aforementioned Dirk Nowitzki example or simply look at this season’s Cleveland Cavaliers, without LeBron James.

Kevin Love, 2011 (left) and Moses Malone, 1979 (right) 3

If there ever were an honorable mention for the MVP, though, Love deserves serious consideration. Any man in the 4 position giving you 20 points per night is a rare and precious commodity and if Wolves General Manager David Kahn demonstrated a personnel IQ greater than that of a grape, the Wolves would, minimally, be a .500 team with Love’s scoring contribution alone. Any player in any position giving you 16 rebounds per night is special, by any standard. He is a defensive force that will compel your opponent to choose his shot very carefully and effectively restrict where an opponent can and cannot move the ball while still being an effective threat to score points.

Finally, Kevin Love has recorded a (post 1976 ABA-NBA merger) record 52 consecutive double-doubles (eclipsing Moses Malone's 1979 streak). In the modern game, that is almost unbelievable. Considering that Love is an easy player to target (as no opponent is targeting anyone else on the floor for the Timberwolves) for double teaming and boxing out, this feat is even MORE impressive.

On a side note, Moses Malone questioned, in a recent interview, how impressive Love’s streak actually is. Malone implied that players, fans, and the media were more stat-focused today than during his time. Other critics have cites that Love’s performance has not led to winning for his team.

My response? I would like to see any person walking the Earth, pro athlete or otherwise, go out and focus every iota of attention of recording the statistics necessary to constitute a double-double, regardless of the impact on the team or the game. Stat focused or not, that person is not going to do it 52 straight times, which is why it has not happened, post merger. Also, I think Moses Malone had less of an uphill battle performing (whether he was counting his points and rebounds or not) on a playoff caliber Houston Rockets team.

To paraphrase Los Angeles Lakers coach Phil Jackson, give the guy some (bleeping) credit.


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MVP Talk, Part 1 - Derrick Rose, LeBron James, and Dwight Howard

I've been a little busy. Can you blame me? 1

Did you miss me, Hat Trick readers? Don’t answer that! :-/

As many of you are aware, I am based in Louisiana and we had a little PAR-TAY in the last week. However, all good things, like the Mardi Gras holiday, must come to an end. That means you get another heaping pile of…yours truly!

With the NBA entering its final month of the regular season, talk of MVP candidates will continue to ramp up. It’s an annual tradition among basketball fans. While we may not get an answer until the middle of April we will get all of the speculation we can handle. Why not ring in Ash Wednesday with the first of a huge two part helping of meatless MVP pontificating from The Daily Hat Trick?

Today, I would like to focus on the three players I think have a realistic possibility of winning the award at the end of the season. The next installment will focus on players that I believe should be in the discussion, but I do not believe have a chance of having the most votes once the rubber hits the road. All of these men are invaluable assets to their teams and the NBA.

Derrick Rose – PG, Chicago Bulls (25 PPG, 8 APG)

The Chicago Bulls, at full strength, have quietly been climbing to the top of the Eastern Conference during the season. They are currently mounting a serious challenge to the Boston Celtics. While the recent recoveries of both center Joakim Noah and forward Carlos Boozer from injury have helped the Bulls reach their regular season potential, they would not be in second place in the East and within striking distance were it not for the leadership and exceptional play of point guard Derrick Rose.

Rose has taken his game to the next level in 2011. He is more than just the best scorer and passer on his team. He is a leader. He is putting the teams and responsibility for winning and losing on his back and it is reflected in the standings and statistics of the players around him. The only criticisms of Rose, while fair, are manageable. He is shooting 44% on the season, a little low, even for a guard. And when he misses, it is UG-LY! And scoring 25 points per game from the 1 position sends up an Allen Iverson like flag that he may be a shoot first and pass second point guard. However, the Bulls have no viable starting 2 in their backcourt and, until Carlos Boozer’s return from injury, I don’t think the Bulls had a clear second scoring option after Rose.

If the season ended today, Rose would receive my MVP vote.

The Daily Hat Trick 2011 MVP, for the moment. 2

LeBron James – SF, Miami Heat (26 PPG, 8 RPG, 7 APG, 50% FG)

Sometimes the media can overhype and overhype and overhype some more, so much to the point where we can become desensitized to the message and anything related to it. The bottom line, though, is if one looks only at the numbers, and not the player’s name or the team (if there were performance stats and no names on the MVP ballots), I think The King is a slam dunk for a third straight MVP. The reason I do not think he will win in 2011 is because of the following:

• This WOULD be the third straight year and the Associated Press, which votes on the award, is averse to such dominance by a single person.

• I remember, in 1993, when Charles Barkley won the award. In addition to some shrewd self promotion by Sir Charles, many factions of sports media (particularly NBC and ESPN – the only basketball opinions that truly mattered at that time) appeared, to me, to be pushing hard for Barkley to win the award. In 1997, I observed a similar push for the eventual winner, Karl Malone. In both years, I personally would have voted for Michael Jordan.  
• In both years, Jordan would have been a repeat winner of the award (Jordan would have won his third straight in 1993). Jordan led the NBA in scoring, in both seasons, en route to leading his team to a repeat championship (also a third straight in 1993) and an NBA Finals MVP award in both years. In both seasons, there was a push for an all-time great having an MVP-caliber season, who had never won the award prior. 
• I am noticing a smaller-scale push for Derrick Rose, ironically, of the Chicago Bulls. Rose is not yet an “all-time great” and LeBron James is still light years from Michael Jordan in career achievement, hence the smaller scale.

• There has been SO MUCH coverage of the Miami Heat that the press may have had enough of the “Heat Index” and is reluctant to extend the hype to the MVP award.

• The Heat are not well liked. Ever since “The Decision”, which united The King, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh, the Heat have often been portrayed as the NBA’s Evil Empire. To think that the MVP award vote does not incorporate popularity into the criteria is naïve.

• LeBron James is very unliked by many, post “The Decsion”. Every mainstream measure of James’ Q-rating (a measure of popularity) has plummeted since this past July. It is reflected in countless sports editorials, online forums, and talk radio call-ins.

• James is playing on the court at the same time as Wade and Bosh, making it more difficult for defenses to focus as much attention on him as other key players around the NBA. I consider this is the fairest criticism of James’ MVP candidacy.

Except for the last bullet point, none of that…NONE OF IT…has anything to do with what LeBron has done ON THE COURT in the 2011 season. My second place vote would go to LeBron, without hesitation. Depending on what transpires in between now and award time, that second place vote could become a first place vote. At the moment, however, I think that Derrick Rose is more valuable to his team, is doing more with less than James, and the Rose-led Bulls are having a more impressive season than the Heat.

LeBron has a great case that he is still the king of the court. 3

Dwight Howard – C, Orlando Magic (23 PPG, 14 RPG, 2 BPG, 60% FG)

Many pundits are using Dwight Howard’s recent suspension for collecting his 16th technical foul this season as a reason to pass Superman over for the MVP award. I think it is a copout. Some have cited an inability of Howard to control his temper though Magic Head Coach Stan Van Gundy gave an excellent rebuttal to that criticism. However, I would not give Howard my first place vote, either.

Howard is the best center in basketball and the Magic will go as far as he can take them. His numbers are MVP-caliber. I would not vote for Howard not so much because of what he has failed to do. I simply think that what Rose and James are doing, given their circumstances, are more impressive. Howard is a physical specimen the likes of which I have never seen at the center position. Even Shaquille O’Neal, at his peak, lacked Howard’s physique and degree of all-around athleticism. He is going to put up impressive scoring, rebounding, and block numbers.

Yes, he has elevated his play to a higher level this season. But Derrick Rose is leading a team with fundamentally solid athletes, playing disciplined basketball, to one of the top seeds in the Eastern Conference. LeBron James is withstanding the heat (pun intended) of the most intense media scrutiny of a basketball team that I can recall, and playing as well as he ever has in his career, en route to leading his team to a division championship.

The Orlando Magic, on the other hand, are doing nothing that they have not done in the past three seasons. In point of fact, they are not the best team in their own division and they are a long shot to come out of the Eastern Conference playoffs, a feat they achieved two years ago. Howard is not making his team markedly better to the degree of James or Rose and for that reason I could not vote for Howard as MVP, though, at the moment, I expect him to finish third because of his performance this season.

Stan Van Gundy thinks that the guys who drew the techs against Howard had a little of this coming to them, sooner or later. Look at this guy. WHY would you tempt fate (or your long term dental health)? 4

Coming very soon: the rest of the MVP field!

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