NFL Quarterback Rankings 2011

It's that time of year again!

It is that time of year again. Football is right around the corner! Last year, just before the beginning of the preseason, the Hat Trick ranked the starting quarterbacks from all 32 NFL teams. Today, we will do the same for the 2011 season.

Top Tier

1) Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts - Last year's preseason rank: 1 (difference = 0)
2) Tom Brady, New England Patriots - Last year's preseason rank: 3 (difference = +1)

The rivalry continues. 1

This top tier should surprise nobody. It includes only two players because last year demonstrated that Manning and Brady truly are in a class by themselves among NFL quarterbacks.

Peyton Manning carried his entire team on his shoulders, in spite of a rampage of injuries to the Colts on both sides of the ball, some questionable coaching decisions, and a season so physically taxing on Manning that he required offseason neck surgery.

Last year I suggested that Brady was still among the elite, but may be on his way down. WRONG! Brady had an MVP season, throwing for 36 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions, with a video game-like QB rating of 111.0. Brady did have surgery on his right foot in the offseason, but all indications are that he is 100%, or very close. Having Chad Ochocinco as a primary target won’t hurt Brady’s standing in 2011, either.


Tier 2

3) Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers – Last year’s preseason rank: 8 (difference = +5)

4) Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers – Last year’s preseason rank: 6 (difference = +2)

5) Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints – Last year’s preseason rank: 2 (difference = -3)

6) Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers – Last year’s preseason rank: 5 (difference = -1)

Aaron Rodgers is knocking on the door of the NFL QB penthouse. 2

Aaron Rodgers' performances, en route to a Super Bowl title, catapulted him from an up and coming young QB to a player on the cusp of being the best in the game. If he has another year like 2010, or better, the ubiquitous “Manning & Brady” phrase, used frequently in the last decade to describe the best of the best signal callers, may include “Rodgers”.

Drew Brees took a dip in 2010. Perhaps my bias as a Saints fan combined with the euphoria of the Saints having won their first Super Bowl clouded my judgment, as I had Brees ranked behind only Peyton Manning. Or perhaps the MVP caliber season Brees had convinced me he was battling for a spot atop the mountain. Maybe Reggie Bush’s presence on the field as the Most Valuable Decoy in 2009 camouflaged some of Brees’ weaker points by diffusing defensive coverage every time Bush was on the field.

Brees’ yards went down and interceptions went up noticeably during Bush’s 8 game absence due to injury in 2010. Regardless, Brees is still among the best, though not THE best. He will have assistance from newly signed running back Darren Sproles to help fill some of the roles that the now departed Bush filled.

Ben Roethlisberger, coming off of a Super Bowl loss, will continue to have high expectations, as will the Chargers’ Philip Rivers. The difference for Roethlisberger is that he will have an opportunity to meet those expectations from the beginning of the season. The difference for Rivers is that he will have his best receiver, Vincent Jackson, in week 1.


Tier 3

7) Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles – Last year’s preseason rank: none

8) Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons – Last year’s preseason rank: 12 (difference = +4)

9) Eli Manning, New York Giants – Last year’s preseason rank: 9 (difference = 0)

All three players demonstrated tremendous potential last season and all three fell disappointingly short of their goals. Michael Vick has the most preseason buzz surrounding him. It appears that he is beginning to fully realize the potential he exhibited at Virginia Tech, before being the first pick in the 2001 NFL Draft. Philadelphia attracted a number of high profile free agents and it has been suggested that Vick has been the magnet to attract many of those players.

Matt Ryan faces the daunting task of trying to win back-to-back division titles for the first time in the history of the Atlanta Falcons, in a division with a Saints team made up of many of the same key players that won the Super Bowl in the 2009 season plus some added depth in the running and run stopping positions, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, one of the youngest teams in the NFL with a young coach that finished 10-6 last year (meaning they are poised to improve). Next season with test the degree of Ryan’s full potential.

Eli Manning led the Giants to a solid 10-6 regular season record last season, but his team’s inability to put the Philadelphia Eagles away ultimately cost the G-Men a playoff spot. Considering the rising tide in Philadelphia, which may have lifted all of the Eagles’ ships, and the relative inactivity of the Giants in free agency, Eli Manning’s task of winning the NFC East may be more difficult than it was last year.

Mike Vick has been the pied piper of free agency in Philadelphia. 3

Tier 4

10) Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens – Last year’s preseason rank: 17 (difference = +7)

11) Matt Schaub, Houston Texans – Last year’s preseason rank: 13 (difference = +2)

12) Mark Sanchez, New York Jets – Last year’s preseason rank: 18 (difference = +6)

This could be called the “three steps forward” tier as all three quarterbacks showed significant improvement in 2010 over 2009. The question is whether or not any of them will take any steps back.

Flacco may be the most underrated QB in the NFL, but the man keeps on winning and unlike the some of the suggestions of some of his rival Pittsburgh Steelers, I think is it a reach to say that there is no way Flacco will win a Super Bowl in his lifetime!

Will the third time be the charm for Sanchez to get his team past the conference championship round to the Super Bowl?  4

Tier 5

13) Donovan McNabb, Minnesota Vikings - Last year's preseason rank: 7 (difference = -6)

14) Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys - Last year's preseason rank: 11 (difference = -3)

15) Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Last year's preseason rank: 29 (difference = +14)

16) Matt Cassell, Kansas City Chiefs - Last year's preseason rank: 22 (difference = +6)

17) Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams - Last year's preseason rank: 28 (difference = +11)

18) Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears - Last year's preseason rank: 15 (difference = -3)

McNabb is getting a fresh start and another chance to take a team to the promised land in Minnesota. 5

Tier 5 is a "middle of the pack" tier. Interestingly, it consists of quarterbacks who have made significant movement in the progress of their careers. I doubt that many pundits considered Josh Freeman or Sam Bradford to be median NFL quarterbacks at the start of 2010. Yet, at the start of 2011, some experts may consider the Hat Trick ranking of these two quarterbacks to be somewhat conservative, particularly Freeman, who lead the Buccaneers, woeful in 2009, to a 10-6 record, just barely missing the playoffs.

On the other hand, some may consider the #13 ranking of McNabb to be generous. However, I do not personally believe that McNabb's skills mysteriously eroded as drastically as his 2010 statline with the Washington Redskins would seem to indicate. McNabb, however, is another year older and he did not have a good season last year. A six spot drop should not appear unreasonable, given all of his circumstances.


Tier 6

19) Kevin Kolb, Arizona Cardinals: Last year's preseason rank: 27 (difference = +8)

20) Matt Hasselbeck, Tennessee Titans: Last year's preseason rank: 19 (difference = -1)

21) Matt Stafford, Detroit Lions: Last year's preseason rank: 25 (difference = +4)

22) David Gerrard, Jacksonville Jaguars: Last year's preseason rank: 26 (difference = +4)

23) Jason Campbell, Oakland Raiders: Last year's preseason rank: 20 (difference = -3)

24) Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos: Last year's preseason rank: 23 (difference = -1)

25) Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo Bills: Last year's preseason rank: none

The eagle has landed as a Cardinal. 6

Kolb, Stafford, Orton and Fitzpatrick have all demonstrated substantial potential, though they all have more ground to cover in actual on field performance before joining the top half of NFL quarterbacks. Kolb, in particular, has a golden opportunity to demonstrate his abilities with the talent-laced Arizona Cardinals, only three seasons (and one future Hall-of-Fame quarterback) removed from a Super Bowl appearance.


Toilet Tier

26) Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers - Last year's preseason rank: 24 (difference = -2)

27) Chad Henne, Miami Dolphins - Last year's preseason rank: 16 (difference = -11)

28) Tarvaris Jackson, Seattle Seahawks - Last year's preseason rank: none

29) Colt McCoy, Cleveland Browns - Last year's preseason rank: none

30) Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers - Last year's preseason rank: none

31) John Beck, Washington Redskins - Last year's preseason rank: none

32) Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals - Last year's preseason rank: none

Cam Newton is going to be put through the ringer like never before. 7

The recurring themes in the toilet tier are that most of these quarterbacks were not starters at the beginning of last season. I think that all of them, not starting at the beginning of last season, will experience some sharp growing pains this season, either due to insufficient supporting staff or inexperience.

Of course, my rankings are just numbers on paper. The actual game is played on the field. Whether my projections are in the ballpark or not will depend in these men and their ability to lead a football team.

Don't forget to vote in the fan polls!


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