Death by Choking

Dr. Henry Heimlich devised an abdominal thrust technique to relieve victims of choking during the mid-1970s. Today, it is a nearly universally known first-aid practice for such an emergency. It appears, however, that the memo did not make it to the high seeds in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.

PREMATURE DEATH

Early round upsets are a staple of the NCAA Tournament. The single-elimination format of the tournament and the five-on-five nature of basketball, which enable one or two standout players to dictate the outcome of a game, facilitate an atmosphere in which lesser known, smaller basketball programs pull off unexpected surprise upsets each year. The “12-5” upset (in which a 12 seed upsets a 5 seed in a Region) is not a surprise anymore; it’s expected.

Still, upsets are called “upsets” because they are unexpected, an exception to the rule. In the second and third rounds of this year’s tournament, however, they became the trend. Only one 5^th seeded team, the Saint Louis Billikens, advanced to the third round of the dance, meaning three 12 seeds won in the round of 64.

Dayton was just getting started. 1

THE USUAL UPSETS

Once is a coincidence. Twice is a pattern. Three times is a trend. The second and third rounds (rounds of 64 and 32) of the Big Dance saw 13 lower seeded teams defeating higher seeds among the 48 games played. Some of the pairings were close in seeding, such as 9^th seeded Pittsburgh eliminating 8^th seeded Colorado. Many of the lower seeded advancers could have never been foreseen by anyone outside of communities and fan bases of those schools.

So called “12-5” victors North Dakota State, Stephen F. Austin, and Harvard, while not shocking, did buck the odds.  However, nobody could have envisioned a scenario in which traditional powerhouse and 3^rd seeded Duke, led by Hall of Fame coach Mike Krzyzewski, would have ever lost to little known, Mercer (let alone lose by seven points). The second round delivered its annual quota of upsets.

OVERCONFIDENT, UNDERPREPARED, MISSEEDED

The third round, however, delivered an upset overload. By the end of the weekend, a #1 seed, two #2 seeds, and a three #3 seeds had been eliminated. This defies any precedent or conventional wisdom regarding the NCAA Tournament.

What happened? Duke had no excuse for its loss. Mercer had no place on the same court with Duke. The Blue Devils failed to execute and Coach K, uncharacteristically, failed to prepare his team. The name on the players’ chests went to their heads and they paid a price.  This was illustrated by the thrashing delivered to Mercer in the third round by (11^th seeded) Tennessee.

The 3^rd seeded Syracuse Orange were unceremoniously bounced from the tournament by the 11^th seeded Dayton Flyers, fresh off of an upset of 6^th seeded Ohio State. Syracuse got off to a 25-0 start this season. Whether an injury to a key role player upset the apple cart, other teams found a way to bust their 2-3 zone defense, or (more likely) the team spent too much time reading its own press clippings, the Orange rapidly tailed off after suffering its first regular season loss and never appeared to recover.

Finally, the Wichita State Shockers, 35-0 entering yesterday’s third round matchup with 8^th seeded Kentucky, was the first #1 seed to be eliminated. The Shockers lost by two to the Wildcats in arguably the best college basketball game played all season. What cannot be ignored, however, is that Kentucky, ranked in the top 25 for most of the season and having reached the championship round of the SEC Tournament, was seeded 8^th in the Midwest Region.

In fact, the Midwest Region appeared to be more madness than method. The Louisville Cardinals finished the regular season ranked #5 in the country. Yet they were seeded #4 in a 17-team region in a 68-team tournament. In contrast, lower ranked Villanova, Wisconsin, Kansas, and Michigan were all #2 seeds. Nova and Kansas have been eliminated from the tournament.

The impact of the questionable seeds in the Midwest extends beyond bruised egos from perceived slights. They result in unfairly difficult matchups for all teams involved. A #1 seed is supposed to be a smooth path to the regional semifinals (Sweet 16) barring shoddy play. The Shockers play was outstanding, but against a Kentucky team that would not stun any observers by reaching the Final Four. Likewise, Kentucky had to face an undefeated team in its second tournament game.

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CHOKE CITY

Notwithstanding the over-concentration of talent in the Midwest Region, the teams that experienced unexpectedly early exits have only themselves to blame. The Big Dance gives each team one chance to advance. Teams with better records and more celebrated talent unable to crush low-seeded peasant revolts need not be considered to cut down the nets on the first Monday in April.

  

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2013 Final Four Preview

The stage is set. The teams have arrived. Fans have descended upon Atlanta, Georgia for this year’s Final Four. As always, every team has a story. Every team adds a little drama to the story. When it is all over on Monday, there can only be one team to cut down the nets. Here are the contenders.

(1) Louisville Cardinals

This was a rough year for #1 seeds. The other three regional top seeds, Gonzaga, Kansas, and Indiana, were all eliminated after the Sweet 16 round.  But Louisville, the #1 overall seed in the tournament, is still standing. Right now, they still look like the best team in the remaining field.

Louisville has prospered because of stellar guard play, particularly that of senior Peyton Siva (10 PPG, 6 APG). With reserve guard Kevin Ware out of the lineup following a horrific injury in the Midwest Regional Final against Duke, shooting guard Russ Smith (20 PPG) has to step his game up in the backcourt as the Cardinals will be without their reliable reserve.  I like how junior center Gorgui Dieng (10 PPG, 10 RPG, 3 BlkPG) has stepped up every aspect of his game on both ends of the floor. Against a physical post team like Wichita State and the possibility of facing Syracuse, who is also tough in the paint, in the finals, Dieng could be the X factor to push Louisville to a title.

Pitono (left) and Ware (right). It's hard to not root for these guys. 1

(9) Wichita State Shockers

The Shockers have shocked the world, the world outside of Wichita Kansas. Gregg Marshall, the Head Coach of the ninth seeded Shockers has been coaching, talking, and acting like he in his team belong there and they are not a Cinderella. Thus far, they’ve played like they belong. The next college basketball game I coach will be my first, but I cannot help but notice that Wichita State’s strength is in its post game.

Forwards Carl Hall (13 PPG, 7 RPG, 2 BlkPG) and Cleanthony Early (14 PPG, 5 RPG) are the anchors of this team. But Marshall’s entire team plays aggressive defense, particularly down low. They beat people up. If the Shockers’ 20 point second half lead on Big Ten behemoth Ohio State in the West Regional Final did not magnify this strength then nothing will. Perimeter shooting could be a challenge for the Shockers at this stage of the tournament, but they have made it this far and believe they can win. Their first test will be against Louisville tomorrow.

Watch out Final Four! Here come Carl Hall (22) and the Shockers. 2

(4) Syracuse Orange

Syracuse looked like the only team that could give eventual national champion Kentucky a run for their money last year. They started off this regular season looking as potent and then hibernated in March. Many had written the Orange off, me included. Then the Big East Tournament started. They reached the championship round, falling to Louisville and haven’t broken a sweat in the final minutes of a game since.

Teams have tried to break the Orange’s 2-3 zone defense and all have failed. The most staggering statistic: Syracuse, through four NCAA tournament games, has only surrendered 61 field goals to opponents – about 15 field goals per game. Most teams come close to making 15 shots from the field in a half. Michigan, whom the Orange face tomorrow, is one of the best shooting teams in the country. So it remains to be seen how much the Syracuse zone can suppress an elite college offense.

Junior forward C.J. Fair (14 PPG, 7 RPG): "Not so fast, my friend!" 3

 

(4) Michigan Wolverines

On the strength of their point guard Trey Burke’s (19 PPG, 7 APG, 2 StlPG, 2 TOPG), the 2013 AP Player of the Year clutch shooting, the Wolverines have yet another opportunity to ascend to the pinnacle of college basketball. The Wolverines have the shooters in Burke, shooting guard Tim Hardaway, Jr. (15 PPG, 5 RPG), and small forward Glenn Robinson, III (11 PPG, 6 RPG) to bust the Syracuse zone in the National Semifinal game tomorrow. The question is not, “can they?”; it’s, “Will they?”

Five times this season, Michigan has been ranked in the top ten and lost games against ranked opponents, which could have propelled them in the rankings. Their one big game as the #1 ranked team in the Associated Press? They were clipped at home by then #2 Indiana. Against the #1 seeded Kansas Jayhawks, trailing by double digits in the final minutes, the Wolverines proved they could win tough, close games.

Michigan’s fate against Syracuse in the National Semifinal  will come down to their success along the perimeter. Take and make good shots…they win. If they don’t…they lose.

Trey Burke (3) ties the score of the South Regional Semifinal in the final second of the second half against Kansas. 4

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