Anybody hear the joke about Matt Howard? He tried to shoot himself after the game last night! He missed. (rimshot)
I'll bet that if Plaxico Burress had three wishes from a genie, the first one would be able to go back to 2008 and have had Matt Howard's shooting ability from last night. 1
I will stick to my day job and leave the stand up to the professionals. Many pundits are calling the 2011 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament one of the best tournaments in 20 years. That may be true. However, the conclusion had a face that only a mother could love. “Connecticut Huskies”…”Butler Bulldogs”…there couldn’t have been two more aptly named teams for one dog of a performance. I could only imagine my part of a dialogue at a bar with one of my readers happening somewhat like the following:
Last night's game was a dog, with a face only a mother could love. 2
“Yesterday, I said that I thought Butler would win. Any time an informed sports prediction is off, there are one or more variables that factored differently into the equation than anticipated. I cited, specifically, that Butler’s defense would be too much for Connecticut to overcome. Hmm…how well did I do on that one?
Let’s see. Connecticut averaged 73 points per game this season. Butler held them to 20 fewer points. Check! UConn shot 43% during the season, not very hot to begin with. Butler’s defense held them to a paltry 35% from the field, including 1 of 11 from beyond the arc. Well maybe the Huskies’ ball handling was superb…oh never mind. Butler forced 11 Connecticut turnovers and the Huskies only managed 6 assists. I guess Butler’s defense was smothering.
A picture is worth a thousand words. 3
So, how did I miss on my projection? I thought Butler’s defense would be overpowering and it was. Did Butler fall behind early? They led at halftime! That’s right. Nobody can win a championship game with a mere 53 points, can they? Well, certainly, Butler must have suffered an injury to Matt Howard or Shelvin Mack, their best players. Oh? Both of them were healthy. Well then Matt Howard must have gotten himself into early foul trouble? Only two fouls the whole game…?
I don’t get it. Butler shot 45% all year and averaged 73 points per game? That doesn’t add up! Heck, if they just shot 40% they would have blown Connecticut out of the building! They didn’t shoot 40%? Even 35% would have…they shot LESS than 35%??? Looking at these numbers, even 30% would have kept the game awfully close. Butler shot HOW much? EIGHTEEN POINT EIGHT PERCENT!?!?!?! BARTENDER!!! Jager bombs, please!!!”
Butler's shooting coach.... 4
The Bulldogs shot 18.8% from the field, the lowest field goal percentage in the history of the title game. No game is played in a vacuum, but with all other factors held constant, Butler would have won the game if it had shot 30%, which is still laughable by any standard. Connecticut forced the Bulldogs to play to the Huskies’ up tempo pace and surrendered absolutely nothing in the paint, making the Bulldogs’ three point percentage more than 25 points higher than its percentage inside the three point line. Butler could not manage a 10% field goal rate inside the arc.
Connecticut got into early team foul trouble, handled the ball poorly, with an abundance of careless turnovers, could not buy a three point shot, trailed at the half, and only mustered 53 points. Not only did UConn not get blown out…not only did UConn win…the Huskies won by 12 points: a four to six possession margin! CBS’s long standing tradition of “One Shining Moment”, a music video with highlights of the tournament a the conclusion of the championship game broadcast, could have been renamed “Someone Had to Win”. Butler’s defense was excellent; UConn was nearly perfect. Connecticut’s shooting was poor; Butler’s shooting was almost non existent.
Don't get too full of yourselves. You guys won by default! 5
Congratulations to Connecticut and Coach Jim Calhoun, with his third National Championship at UConn. A win is a win, no matter how ugly. If you didn’t like what you saw, too bad...! In the words of Coach Calhoun, “Not a dime back!”
Not a dime back!
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1) Image from nydailynews.com 2) Image from stuckon-stupid.com 3) Image from goodnewspic.com 4) Image from smh.com.au 5) Image from theglobeandmail.com
Tonight, April 4, 2011, there will be a new champion crowned in NCAA Men’s college basketball. Many sports talk hosts have expressed the opinion that the NCAA Tournament is the overall event in sports. The NFL Playoffs aside, I share that opinion.
It is the only event which, over the years, I observe casual fans, many of whom watched absolutely no college basketball during the regular season, take an interest in a sporting event. To me, it feels like nearly every man (and many women) in every office everywhere in America fills out a bracket and takes an interest in five young men, on the court, which they had never heard of prior to March, sometimes for schools that the office place bracketologist could not locate on a U.S. map.
One team is a traditional Goliath, the Connecticut Huskies. The other is a traditional David, the Butler Bulldogs. Both teams have both underdog and favorite-like characteristics.
Butler University – Arriving in a Bus Like Everyone Else, not a Pumpkin Carriage
The Bulldogs were last year’s national runner up, losing to Duke after Butler’s Gordon Heyward’s potential game winning three point shot at the buzzer bounced off of the back of the rim. It is easy to cast Butler into the “Cinderella” or “underdog” role by focusing on the name on the front of the jersey and the number next to that name in the bracket seeding. When looking at the actual accomplishments on paper, however, I do not think Butler, on the court, looks like the “little guy”.
Look at every instance, in the past, in which a team reached the Final Four in consecutive years, let alone the championship game, prior to 2011. Would you describe ANY of those teams as “Cinderellas” or “little guys”? Michigan Sate in 2010? North Carolina (the champion) in 2009? UCLA and Florida (a repeat champion) in 2008? Kansas in 2003? Maryland (the champion) in 2002? Defending champion Michigan State in 2001? Tournament champion Michigan State in 2000? Wow! Butler sure is joining a bunch of “Little Engines That Could” in this century!
Here are a couple of other "little guys", just like Butler. 2
The notion that any of the aforementioned repeat Final Four participants were longshot underdogs is absurd. Yet, if you go to Google.com, and type in “Butler University ci,” the words “Cinderella” and “Cinderella story” populate in the auto-complete field. In 2011, that does not add up. Butler is back to take what they think is theirs: a championship that narrowly escaped their grasp last season.
University of Connecticut – An Underdog with a Cape
UConn: The "Underdog" 3
The University of Connecticut is in its fourth Final Four and its third title game, playing for a chance at its third National Championship. Its Head Coach, Jim Calhoun, is in the Basketball Hall of Fame. The UConn basketball programs, both men’s and women’s, have been among the elite college hoops programs over the last 20 years. WHY oh WHY should the Huskies have to soil their hands with such lowly creatures as the Butler Bulldogs???
Connecticut finished in 9th place in the highly competitive Big East conference during the regular season. They won five consecutive games in five days in the Big East Tournament to win the conference tournament and catapult up to a #3 seed in the West Region of the NCAA tournament. Connecticut’s run earned the Huskies a higher seed than Georgetown, West Virginia, St. John’s, Cincinnati, and Louisville, all of whom had superior Big East records in the regular season.
The Huskies play solid team defense and crash the boards aggressively when they need to. However, the foundation of their offense comes from one man: guard Kemba Walker, a National Player of the Year candidate and a certain Most Outstanding Player of this year’s tournament should the Huskies win tonight.
One man offenses seldom win championships, yet Connecticut ran roughshod through its first three tournament games and had more gas in its tank than Elite Eight opponent Arizona and National Semifinal opponent Kentucky. This is in contrast to a regular season in which it lost against then-underdogs West Virginia, Marquette, St. John’s, and Louisville when wins could have significantly advanced their standing in the Big East.
Who is the REAL Underdog?
The odds on tonight’s game have Connecticut as three point favorites.* That is a single basket. This is virtually a push. In addition, betting odds are simply reactions to how people are betting on games. I think the average, garden variety seasoned gambler, who does not actually watch the games, may be deferring to Connecticut because they are a more traditional power and because they have been on fire.
However, Butler has simply outplayed every opponent during this tournament, especially with their frustrating, physical defense. Connecticut is not that big, compared to Butler. They appear to have no daunting advantage in length to overcome the size and physicality of Butler. If Kemba Walker can be bottled up, the Huskies will be in a lot of trouble. That remains to be a BIG “if” and nobody has succeeded in that task thus far. Still, UConn has yet to face dual (offensive, defensive) threats like Butler’s Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack on both sides of the court. I think that Butler has too much for Connecticut to handle if there are no major Butler injuries and Matt Howard is not in foul trouble.
Advantage: Butler
Please...PLEASE let them bring the Luther Vandross Version of "One Shining Moment" back this year!
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*Source: sbnation.com 1) The Final Four logo is a trademark of the NCAA and its licensed affiliates. 2) Image from graneyandthepig.wordpress.com 3) Image from tylerquillin.wordpress.com
The Final Four is less than 72 hours away. Sixty-eight teams started, beginning with the First Four. Four teams remain the Virginia Commonwealth Rams, the Butler Bulldogs, the Kentucky Wildcats, and the Connecticut Huskies – the Final Four.
The National Semifinals could not be partitioned better. One semifinal features participants from major conferences, the University of Kentucky from the Southeastern Conference and the University of Connecticut from the Big East, arguably the best conference in college basketball in 2011. The winner will face the survivor in the other semifinal game between Butler University, of the Horizon League, and Virginia Commonwealth University of the Colonial League.
The Goliaths – (4) Kentucky Wildcats vs (3) Connecticut Huskies
Regular readers of the Hat Trick have gotten my two cents on these programs throughout the season. Both schools are among the elite but both schools have underperformed at unexpected times, during the regular season. Whatever speech Wildcats coach John Calipari gave his team…whatever motivational tactics Huskies coach Jim Calhoun used on his players after the regular season finale…the message was received.
Neither team has lost a postseason game (including their respective conference tournaments). Kentucky, winners of 10 straight, was not lost in over a month. UConn has won nine consecutive games, including a vigorous string of five games in five days during the Big East Tournament. In a college basketball season in which no clear favorite ever emerged, these two teams, in my opinion, proved, on the court, that they are genuinely two of the four best college basketball teams in the country, albeit by slim margins.
Analysts, time and again, have expected Connecticut to wither and fall due to exhaustion from their entrance into the Big Dance on the heels of the extra games they had to play to win the Big East tournament (and earn a #3 seed to secure favorable early round matchups in the NCAA Tournament). Time and time again, those analysts have been wrong. Kentucky, while possessing senior leadership on the court from forward Josh Harrelson (8 PPG, 9 RPG), is led on the stat sheet by three freshmen, guards Brandon Knight (who has had ice in his veins throughout the tournament; 17 PPG, 4 APG) and Doron Lamb (12 PPG), and forward Terrence Jones (16 PPG, 9 RPG, 2 BlkPG).
I stated at the start of the tournament that Connecticut was the “x factor” team with the implication that this team could go as far as junior guard Kemba Walker (24 PPG, 5 APG, 5 RPG, 2 StlPG), a National Player of the Year candidate, and Hall of Fame coach Calhoun could take them. So far they have led the Huskies to within two wins of the school’s third National Championship. Walker’s exemplary play during the regular season reached an even higher level during the postseason.
Kentucky's Brandon Knight 1
My concern for Connecticut is that is has too many eggs in one small basket, Kemba Walker. Jeremy Lamb is the only other player on the team averaging double figure scoring. The only two active members of the team who stand 6’10” or taller – Charles Okwandu and Enosch Wolf, spend a combined less than 20 minutes per game on the floor. What the Huskies have is a smallish team with only one consistent potent scoring threat facing a team loaded with offensive weapons and two players in Knight and Jones who are so good, they may have possibly already outgrown the college game as freshman.
If history is any indicator, Calipari’s team may end up vacating all of its efforts en route to the Final Four, but if I had to place a bet (which I do not do) I would bet that such a vacation would come after Kentucky advances to the National Championship game.
Advantage: Kentucky
Coach Calhoun: "From 'The Daily' what? Picking Kentucky? You're not that stupid, are you?" 3
The Davids – (11) Virginia Commonwealth Rams vs (8) Butler Bulldogs
One of the Davids is actually a Cinderella, VCU. The Rams, in the voiced opinions of countless college basketball analysts, passed over more worthy teams in its own state to reach the tournament and did not even deserve to be in the field of 68, over more deserving teams such as Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Colorado. Rams coach Shaka Smart has played the “us against the world” card five times since the First Four and, five times, his team has won, including an inexplicable, shocking upset over the #1 seeded Kansas Jayhawks, an overtime thriller against Florida State, and solid defensive thrashings of #3 seed Purdue, Georgetown, and First Four opponent USC. VCU has gotten its entire lineup involved in the scoring with point guard Joey Rodriguez (11 PPG, 5 APG) running the floor and spreading the ball around.
VCU coach Shaka Smart 2
Butler is a D.I.N.O. – David In Name Only. While it is a school from a mid-major conference, it has proven, for the second consecutive year, that it is one of the best programs in college basketball. The 2010 runner up lost its best player, Gordon Heyward, to the NBA and still returned to the Final Four in an attempt to finish what it started. Bulldogs coach Brad Stevens, in the opinions of many, has risen to the ranks of the elite college basketball coaches at age 34. Senior power forward Matt Howard (17 PPG, 8 RPG) and junior point guard Shelvin Mack (16 PPG, 4 APG) are the leaders on the floor for Butler. They effectively strong-armed the #1 seed (or, at least the bracket and matchup benefits) from Pittsburgh by beating them in the third round and have looked the part ever since. In the New Orleans regionals, they beat #4 seed Wisconsin and then beat #2 seed Florida, in overtime.
Butler is battle-tested. Butler is experiences. Butler got to see and smell a championship a year ago, but could not touch or taste it. They are coming for theirs. I think VCU finally comes out of its glass slipper and leaves Houston in a carriage-turned-pumpkin.
Advantage: Butler
The clock struck midnight for Butler in 2010 on the final shot. The Bulldogs intend to pass the torch to VCU. 4
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1,4) Images from thebleacherreport.com 2) Image from beaumontenterprise.com 3) Video from youtube.com
March Madness…The Big Dance…the NCAA Tournament, no matter which name you use, always offers drama, excitement, and surprises. The 2011 tournament, however, could have come with a disclaimer at the beginning of each game: “Expect the unexpected!”
There is not a single number one seed in the Final Four this season. Between the 11th seeded Virginia Commonwealth Rams, the 8th seeded Butler Bulldogs, the 4th seeded Kentucky Wildcats, and the 3rd seeded Connecticut Huskies, there are a number of unusual occurrences in the 2011 Final Four. The national semifinal matchup between VCU and Butler will be the highest combined seeded matchup in the history of the Final Four. * This is only the third time in the history of the Final Four that a number one seed has failed to appear* and the first time, ever, that neither a #1 nor #2 seed has appeared**.
I found the guy who predicted Butler and VCU in the National Semifinal. 2
After #1 seeded Kansas’ shocking loss to VCU, I doubt we will hear any analysts using terms like “slam dunk”, “sure thing”, or “no chance” when predicting the winners of the three matchups that will comprise the Final Four. While no single upset of any favorite in this year’s tournament should surprise nobody (after all, this is March “Madness”) the wholesale sweeping of the top two seeds in each bracket and the advancement of lower seeds into the Sweet 16 round and beyond has been mind blowing. The only predictable factoid among the Final four teams is that the Big East, which sent a record 11 teams to the field of 64, is represented in the Final Four. Thank goodness for some semblance of normalcy!
Butler coach (34 year old) Brad Stevens. This is basically the guy who used to be the younger kid I could pick on because he was harmless looking. He's still younger and still harmless looking, but he's just two games away from coaching his team to the national championship that eluded him by inches last year.
The Hat Trick will give its expert analysis, with the usual disclaimer that it is worth the paper that you could print it on, later in the week. In the interim, I think that sports fans should take the coming week to savor the delightful entertainment treat that this NCAA Tournament has provided for fans. It is often said that the best predictor of future events is the past. The first five rounds of this tournament lead me to think that the best is yet to come and, perhaps, we could witness the most surprising and dramatic Final Four in history.
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*Source: ESPN.com *Source: si.com 1) The 2011 Final Four Houston logo is a trademark of the NCAA and its licensed affiliates. 2) Image from http://richde.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/liar.jpg 3) Image from http://indianapolis-indiana.funcityfinder.com
Today, we pick up where we left off from yesterday, examining the eight remaining teams in the Southwest and Southeast regions of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.
Southwest Region
(1) Kansas Jayhawksvs (12) Richmond Spiders
I personally expected Richmond to beat Vanderbilt (citation) and reach the round of 32. It is no surprise that the Spiders were able to dispose of Moorehead State. The clock strikes midnight for the Cinderella Spiders against the #1 seed in the bracket. The question, to me, is not how much Marcus and Markieff Morris pile on Richmond, but at what point Kansas coach Bill Self calls the dogs off and removes them from the game, giving some of the bench players some playing time.
Kansas' Marcus Morris dropping 2 of his 16 points on Boston Univeristy in the 2nd round. 1
Kansas racks up too many points. They shoot too well. They move the ball too well. And, oh by the way, they are tough on defense, too. Richmond is a good, quality Atlantic 10 team that has had a good run, but they are not big enough nor do they shoot well enough to keep up with Kansas. If the margin of victory for Kansas is 10 points or less, chalk it up as a moral victory for Richmond because I’m “going with chalk” in this matchup.
Advantage: Kansas
(11) Virginia Commonwealth Rams vs (10) Florida State Seminoles
Virginia Commonwealth is this year’s George Mason (from 2006). The overwhelming sentiment in the sports media was that VCU did not deserve to be in the First Four over more deserving teams like Clemson, Virginia Tech, or Colorado; The Selection Committee made a mistake. I completely agree.
THAT’S…why they PLAY the GAMES! It does not matter what I think, what Dick Vitale thinks, what Jim Rome thinks, or what any person running his trap thinks. VCU made the field and now they are in the Sweet 16. Rams coach Shaka Smart has played the “us versus the world” card to the Nth degree and has motivated and willed his overachieving team to the Sweet 16.
Florida State is no stranger to succeeding as an underdog, having beaten Duke during the regular season and obliterating #2 seed Notre Dame, whom many analysts had in the Final Four. Personally, I think FSU was done a disservice by being seeded as low as 10th. The Seminoles finished third in the ACC and three of its 11 losses, late in the season, were in the absence of their best player, Chris Singleton. Singleton is back, albeit with limited action. FSU has made a vociferous statement in the second and third rounds of the tourney. I think that “the world” finally gets the better of coach Smart and Florida State advances to the Elite Eight.
Advantage: Florida State
VCU came to play. You'd better recognize! Purdue did. 2
Southeast Region
(8) Butler Bulldogs vs (4) Wisconsin Badgers
Last year’s runner up continues pushing through the tournament, similarly to how it did in 2010. Wisconsin is The Daily Hat Trick’s pick to advance from this region to The Final Four. Something’s gotta give!
This game could be the ugliest among the regional semifinal games. Butler is no stranger to winning ugly, in its bizarre win over #1 seed Pittsburgh in the final seconds, fueled by a pair of offsetting stupid fouls by both teams. Wisconsin is a team that has been proud to win ugly, playing physical defense, being unafraid to foul, and controlling the tempo of the game – often a very slow tempo.
Butler’s Matt Howard vs Jon Leuer….Shelvin Mack vs Jordan Taylor of the Badgers…Butler Coach Brad Stevens vs Wisconsin’s Bo Ryan…. Let me say that I would not bet a dime on this game. Actually, I would not bet a dime AGAINST Butler. This team, with its bright, young coach, has spent the past two seasons beating the odds and beating everyone in their way. Still, Wisconsin’s Taylor has been money on the big stage throughout the season and in the tournament. I am going go with my gut and my original pick from this bracket.
Advantage: Wisconsin
(3) BYU Cougars vs (2) Florida Gators
The Jimmer Show vs the Gator Chomp…. Those of you who have read the Hat Trick throughout the season have witnessed me referring to Florida as “overrated” and suggesting that their bubble will burst eventually. Yet here they are, the #2 seed in the region and in the Sweet 16. Originally, I expected the Gators to bow out at this point in the tournament, but now I am not so sure.
I expected that Florida would face St. John’s in the Regional Semifinals, but that prediction crashed and burned on the first full day of tournament action. Florida has two speedy, sharp shooting guards in its backcourt in Erving Walker (15 PPG) and Kenny Boynton (14 PPG). BYU’s backcourt is not known for its defense. BYU’s frontcourt matches up well against low percentage shooting teams, but Florida is not one of them. I think this game will shape up into a battle of backcourts and jumpers and, as impressive as Jimmer Fredette is, the game has to be played on both sides of the court.
Advantage: Florida
Flordia forward Chandler Parsons, AKA "The White Mamba" 3
Updated Hat Trick Elite Eight: Florida vs Wisconsin, Florida State vs Kansas, Connecticut vs Duke, North Carolina vs Ohio State
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1,2) Images from kansascity.com 3) Image from bleacherreport.com
