YOU JUST WON’T LET IT GO, WILL YOU, ERIC?
Let me lead in by saying that I am not trying to cover my tail. Before the series started, I picked OKC in seven games. Now, the only way OKC can win is if they can force a seventh game.
At this point, I expect Miami to win the series; I think they will put the nails in the coffin tonight. And even if the Heat fail to close it out at home, as difficult as it could be, I expect then to take a second road game in this series at Oklahoma City. I do not expect the Thunder to win three straight over Miami. If I were a gambler, my money would be on the Heat.
That said, “improbable” does not mean “impossible”. Long historical trends are occasionally and/or eventually bucked. When it happens, it is because different or unusual circumstances were in play that were not normally in play. Consider the following.
According to Who Wins, of those 30 NBA Finals in which a team went up 3-1:
- Only eight of those involved a team that played Game 1 on the road.
- Of those eight, only three of those teams closed the series out in five games.
- Applying the historical trend in a vacuum, the Thunder have close to a 2 in 3 chance of sending this series back to OKC.
- The Thunder won well over 80% of their home games this season.
- Their last game at home was their last home loss.
- Solely factoring in location, the odds of the Thunder dropping Game 6 are less than 5%.
- Should a Game 7 be forced, the historical trend is overwhelmingly in OKC’s favor.
- There have been 17 Game 7s in NBA Finals history
- Only 3 of those 17 have been won by the visiting team, last happening in 1978 (Washington Bullets over the Seattle Supersonics – ironically the present day OKC Thunder)
- Only one time did the visiting team win Game 7 after leading 3-2
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| The last time a team won the Finals in a road Game 7, we saw a lot more thigh than today. At least that history won't repeat itself. 2 |
DON’T GIVE ME STATISTICS. GIVE ME FACTS!
Of course, history is history and what happens on the court in the present is independent of history. There are some very present day factors that should keep Heat Fan on the edge of his seat tonight.
- All three of the Miami wins have been by six points (two possessions) or less.
- The Thunder have not lost four consecutive games, regular or postseason, in three years.
- The “Big Three” of the Thunder – Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden – have all scored 10 or more points in only one game, Game 2.
- Harden has been the weak link, but did not forget how to play basketball overnight.
- This season, Harden has never been held to under 10 points in three consecutive games played.
- During the regular season, the Thunder only lost once when Harden scored 20 or more points.
- He is due to break out of his slump soon.
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| Maybe he should shave the beard to shake things up. 1 |
GIT ‘ER DONE
The bottom line is that the Heat have the best chance to wrap this series up tonight. They are at home. The momentum of the series is completely on Miami’s side. Oklahoma City has had trouble in Miami in late game, pressure situations. This is Miami’s golden opportunity. I expect them to seize it tonight. But if they don’t, the Heat will have an uphill battle and the Thunder (and this series) will have new life.
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1) Image from http://www.fhstigerroar.com/
2) Image from http://www.bleacherreport.com/
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