Houston, You Have a Problem

Baseball Hall of Fame manager Tommy Lasorda often said that every team in Major League Baseball will win a third of its games, no matter how bad the team is, and every team will lose a third of its games, no matter how good the team is. I remember first hearing that when Lasorda’s Los Angeles Dodgers were having a 1992 season to forget, though they did pass the 54 game plateau.

Ever since then, I would glance at standings at the end of each season and, true to form, both numbers in the win and loss columns of every team has almost always had a number greater than or equal to 54. The few times in which there has been an exception to this rule, the team in question, depending on which column had the high number, stood out as being a remarkably good or incredible bad rarity.


CAN THE ASTROS GET INTO "STUDIO 54"?
The 2011 Houston Astros, with two months remaining in the season, are on pace to join that dubious club of teams with less than 54 wins. With a record of 35-73, the Astros are on pace to win 52 games this year. Every professional sports team...every business succeeds or fails in part because of its competitive environment, the talent level of its human resources, and a little luck. However, the true measure of success or failure comes from the top of any organization.

The Houston Astros, while they have not been in even the most remote playoff discussions since 2008, have had plenty of talented players on their roster in recent years. Remember that this franchise was in the World Series just six years ago. The Astros sank to the abyss of Major League Baseball franchises in 2010. Instead of embracing their strengths and correcting their weaknesses, the Astros chose to clean house, have a fire sale, and unload their most valuable assets in exchange for multiple prospect players.

THESE folks have a reason to dump all of their salvagable inventory. 1

MORTGAGING THE PRESENT FOR THE FUTURE
I am not into minor league scouting, but from what I have been hearing from analysts, the Astros did pick up some talented and promising young players. However, these prospects are not likely to be everyday regular players for 2 or 3 more years. A team, already struggling to win a single game, trading away the few people who can help it win for players who will not see the field next season does not sound like a fan friendly formula for success.

Roy Oswalt with the Phillies.... The Astros aren't doing much winning with all of that talent. Why not spread the wealth? 3

Even worse, I do not think the Astros need to be as bad as they are. Last season, the Astros traded away franchise icon pitcher Roy Oswalt to the Philadelphia Phillies and another iconic mainstay in first baseman Lance Berkman to the playoff bound New York Yankees. This year Berkman (.286, 28 HR, 72 RBI), now with the St. Louis Cardinals (who are in the thick of the National League Central division race) has a chance to win the National League home run title and Oswalt (4-6, 3.79 ERA), while having missed some starts due to injury, is a contributing member of a rotation that is leading the Phillies on the right path to a third National League championship in four seasons. This year the Astros continued to make other contenders better and move themselves to the top of the list to receive post season thank you cards from other general managers by trading All-Star Hunter Pence (.306, 11 HR, 63 RBI) to the Phillies and former All-Star and Gold Glove winner Michael Bourn (.303, 1 HR, 32 RBI, 39 SB) to the Atlanta Braves, chasing the Phillies in the NL East and leading the National League Wild Card race.

Pence: "WOW! We scored a RUN! I could get used to this!" 4

So, let’s see. There are nine players in a baseball game at any given time. The Astros have traded four productive former All-Stars, three of which are every day players, to teams that are serious playoff contenders. Now, call me crazy, but if three of your eight regular players are good enough to help a good team get better, does it not stand to reason that, together, they could help a bad team get back to respectability? Does it not stand to reason that these established players will get your team further along the path to success more quickly than unproven and unknown players that your fans will not see for years?

The Astros had better have some money in the piggy bank or this could be in their future. People are not piling into Minute Maid Park in droves to see them for a while. 2

MINOR LEAGUE
The Astros may not win a third of their games this year. They may not be of interest to the casual Astros fan in Houston. They may have watered down their 25 man roster so badly that an elite AAA team appears more competitive, in contrast. However, the Astros front office management will be long time favorites of their peers for several years to come.


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1) Image from flickr.com
2) Image from foreclosedhomesforsale.com 
3) Image from zimbio.com