So unless you want to read about labor talks, there is not much gridiron action to discuss. Basketball is facing a lockout so forget about any good free agency news. The red white and blue is getting beaten black and blue in jolly old England at Wimbledon, ironically, just in time for the Fourth of July. And with Tiger Woods' health in question, the United Kingdom may be serving us some more "gotcha" in a few weeks at the British Open, as U.S. Open winner Rory McIlroy, I am sure, plans to serve us an encore performance.
Like I said, summer sucks for American sports fans. Here at the Hat Trick, much like at television networks, rather than search for a needle in a haystack for sports topics of interest, I'd rather warm over and re-serve a real favorite. In February, speculation over where then Denver Nuggets forward Carmelo Anthony would be traded was a blazing hot topic in the sports world. Of the dozens upon dozens of articles run in the Hat Trick, the speculation piece, "Melo Drama", is the second most viewed article in this blog's short history. Today, we look at the original piece and comment in BLUE with the benefit of hindsight!
As Carmelo's World Turns will return after these messages....
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| It's good to be me! 1 |
Casual fans may wonder, "what is the big deal? He's just ONE basketball player!" The big deal is that he is one of the top 5 players in the league and will add enormous value to the talent assets of any team overnight. Any team that is close to contending will be contending. Any team with no shot now has, at least, a long shot. Any team at the front of the line would be able to run away from the pack altogether.
Rather than give my in-depth analysis of all of the constantly changing moving parts in the Carmelo trade, which is no more useful than an umbrella in a light drizzle during the summer (doesn't cover you from much and you may be better off without it), The Hat Trick can better serve you by looking ahead to what the league will look like, this year and beyond, after the possible Carmelo trade scenarios.
Scenario #1 - NOTHING
Nothing from nothing leaves nothing. Should nothing happen by next Thursday, everyone loses, except, perhaps Carmelo. The Nuggets will get into the Western Conference playoffs as a low seed and likely be cleaned out in six games or less. Melo and (lovely wife) Lala will pack their stuff and head East. NO MORE MELO!
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| Jigga might have to wear that jersey on the court if the Nets don't get some starpower soon! 4 |
Anthony will likely play for the New York Knicks (the Brooklyn Nets are a longshot) in 2012, assuming the NBA can get a handle on its labor situation. The East will become hyper-competitive between the Knicks, Miami Heat, Boston Celtics, Orlando Magic, and Chicago Bulls. Everyone else in the East will be effectively rendered a sparring partner. Denver would get nothing in exchange for its star of the last decade. The East will have a strong, legitimate contender in the Finals for years to come. Jay-Z will continue to be the featured attraction at Nets games. He may have to perform at halftime to keep people coming to the games.
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| Carmelo's wife, LaLa Vasquez.... Alright this has nothing to do with the subject, but at least I didn't find an excuse to "force" you fellas to look at Jenn Sterger again. I'm sure that would have disappointed you. |
Scenario #1 in hindsight - Nothing from nothing leaves nothing. Denver could have played hardball, with the uncertainty of how much Melo could be offered in free agency under a new collective bargaining agreement. In the end, something is better than nothing and "nothing" would probably have been a bad choice.
Scenario #2 - Carmelo resigns with the Nuggets.
This is not all that far fetched. Carmelo wants in New York more than he wants out of Denver. Melo's worst case scenario would be to sign a 3 year, $63 million extension, which the Nuggets have left on the table for months.
SCREEEEEECH!!!!!
I would like to pause for a moment to reflect on the good fortune some people have in life. My worst case scenario, professionally, would be losing my real job and moving in with my parents. Some folks would be on the street. There are some people making high six figure salaries who have had to work for less than half of that because of the recent recession. Carmelo's worst case scenario is to limp into the Nuggets front office, hat-in-hand, and sign a contract guaranteeing him $21 million per year in salary for the next three years. How could he look at himself in the mirror after that abject humiliation?!?
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| Melo is so money and doesn't even know it, even though he swims in it. 3 |
Should that happen, the Nuggets would likely continue as a contender for the Northwest division title for the next three years, along with the Utah Jazz and Oklahoma City Thunder. Come 2015, Melo would take his talents to the Big Apple, triggering a power shift similar to that described in Scenario 3.
Scenario #2 in hindsight - Melo still got his money, so, clearly resigning with Denver would have not been the best move for Melo. Melo stood his ground and the Nuggets caved. Advantage: Melo.
Scenario 3 - Melo to the Knicks
To the casual observer, this has appeared to be the most likely scenario all season. The Knicks want Carmelo Anthony (and guard Chauncey Billups and Bullups' expiring contract) badly. Well, in this world you have to give something to get something. Carmelo appears as frustrated as the rest of the basketball world with the Knicks stubborn refusal to let go of role players to complete this trade.
HELLO!!!! You become an overnight contender with Anthony added to a team with Amare Stoudemire. Who cares about backup center Eddie Curry and other guys who keep the bench nice and toasty. DO YOU WANNA WIN A CHAMPIONSHIP OR NOT?
The Nuggets stand to be the biggest loser in any trade, so I do not fault them for expecting a little value, like expiring contracts (like that of Curry and others) and a first round draft pick. The Knicks are trying to drive a hard bargain because they believe they have the leverage in free agency. However, the aforementioned uncertainty of the NBA's labor agreement may erode some of that leverage, making Scenario 2 more possible.
Should the Knicks turn the corner from "Stubborn Street" to "Trade Parkway" the Knicks go from a much improved team, all but locked into the 5th or 6th seed but with a bad defense and no realistic shot of coming out of the East in 2011, to an overnight contender, with as much of a chance of going to the finals as the Heat, Celtics, Magic, or Bulls. Melo would all but certainly be offered a max contract and make the Knicks perpetual contenders in the East for several years to come.
The Nuggets would go into rebuilding mode and, taking an educated guess, be replaced by the emerging Los Angeles Clippers, with the core of Blake Griffin, Eric Bledsoe, and Baron Davis, as one of the nine teams that make a run in the West each season for the next several years.
Scenario #3 in hindsight - Scenario 3 was the winner! And, unlike some transactional outcomes, it was a win-win for both sides. Carmelo Anthony got his money and got to go to his first choice of destination, New York. The Knicks got their franchise guy in Melo.
The Nuggets? Let's face facts. When you trade a guy like Melo, you never really get equal value in return, but the Nuggets were made as whole as possible. The Nuggets got Wilson Chandler, Raymond Felton, Danilo Gallinari, and Timofey Mozgov - guys who can play and help the team win now - and a 2014 first-round draft pick.
Scenario 4 - Melo to the Lakers
This appears very unlikely, as the Lakers have made it very clear that center Andrew Bynum, in whom the Nuggets are interested, is going nowhere and that Bynum is a vital part of the Lakers' future, in spite of Bynum's chronic injury problems during his young career. I think this is the correct move for the Lake Show, which can ill afford to give up any inside presence during the playoffs. Still, The Lakers could offer draft picks, other expiring contracts, and cash to land Melo for the remainder of this season. Oatmeal is better than no meal for the Nuggets.
Should this scenario play out...well...we may watch the playoffs for entertainment purposes, but they can just hand the Lakers their third consecutive championship after the ink dries on the deal. There have been questions about whether or not Anthony and Kobe Bryant could coexist on the same team. I think that would be a legitimate long run concern. But in a temporary situation with a championship ring at stake, I think the stars (who are friends) can take the "I" out of "team" for four months, considering the reward.
Scenario #4 in hindsight - This would have been a hired gun scenario. Maybe the Lakers would have three-peated with Melo, but the Lakers would have mortgaged their future, probably in Andrew Bynum, for the present. Carmelo likely would have high-tailed to the East Coast as soon as the 2011 season concluded. This would have been a bad deal for the Lakers and done very little for Melo or the Nuggets.
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| Can you imagine how many wheels in those collective heads were spinning that summer? 5 |
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1) Image from sbnation.com
2) Image from sojones.com
3) Image from sportswearhouse.com
4) Image from gothamist.com
5) Image from blacksnob.blogspot.com
"Like I said, summer sucks for American sports fans. Here at the Hat Trick, much like at television networks, rather than search for a needle in a haystack for sports topics of interest, I'd rather warm over and re-serve a real favorite."
ReplyDeleteIt appears that you don't receive too many comments/feeedback, so don't feel so neglected, here is one.
I quoted you, bemoaning the plight of the poor American sports fan. If only your Neanderthal brained type would open his mind and eyes to relize that there is the MLS as an option. But God forbid, that's so un-American!
Thank you for reading. Thank you for commenting. Most of my feedback comes via email, facebook and Twitter, not anonymous posts.
ReplyDeleteThere is little more than niche interest in MLS. People, generally are uninterested in the sport in the United States and every measure of popularity, such as TV ratings and scientific opinion polls support that.
"Soccer guy" calling the mainstream "Neanderthals" does absolutely nothing to help your cause. It's a turn off. It would be like someone saying, "You soccer pansies need to sack up and follow a real sport where you use your hands and get physical."
Other than foreigners, recent immigrants and newer-generation Americans, there is little more than fringe interest in the sport. Don't tear down the majority because they don't see the world the same way you do, pal.
BTW, my atricle yesterday was about something people are interested in: the Women's World Cup. Present a decent product and people will watch.