2010 NFL Playoff Preview

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It is almost showtime, folks. With all due respect to March Madness, the NBA Playoffs, the World Series and the BCS, to me, it does not get any better than the NFL playoffs. The men are separated from the boys. Teams reap the rewards and advantages of an entire season of work and have 60 minutes of play plus overtime, if needed, to prove that they deserve to hoist the Lombardi trophy. It is the second season. Everyone is 0-0. THE PLAYOFFS...!

NFC Playoffs

The seeding in the NFC is as follows:

1. Atlanta Falcons (14-2)
2. Chicago Bears (11-5)
3. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
4. Seattle Seahawks (7-9, losers)
5. New Orleans Saints (11-5)
6. Green Bay Packers (10-6)

This postseason in the NFC is an unusual one. The sixth seed has as almost as good of a chance of winning the conference as the top seed, the only significant differentiator being the home field advantage and first round bye for the higher seed. It is also unusual because for the first time, ever, a team of losers has reached the playoffs (non-strike season) won a division, and will host a playoff game. There is nothing ordinary about this postseason.

Because of the high degree of parody among the NFC playoff participants, picking a winner to advance to the Super Bowl from this group would be very difficult. The only projection that I can make with a great degree of confidence is that the Seahawks will not be that team to represent the conference.

The "X-factor" in the NFC playoffs will likely be Sunday's with the Packers playing at the Eagles. Assuming that the Saints dispose of the garbage...er, um...Seahawks in the first round, the Green Bay-Philly game will decide when the defending champs play in the second round. Historically, Soldier Field has been very harsh to the Saints, with a 6-10 record, all-time at Chicago, including two playoff losses and no wins there in the past eight years. A Packers win against the Eagles would send the Saints to Chicago, whereas a Philadelphia win (placing the Eagles at Chicago for round 2) would send the Saints to NFC South archrival Atlanta, where the records can be thrown out of the window. The irony is the Saints' only hope of hosting a playoff game would be against the Packers, requiring a Saints win in Chicago.

You got all of that?

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The second round games will be played in Atlanta and Chicago. From there, I throw certainty out of the window. While I would never rule Mike Vick and the Eagles out of any game,  I believe that the matchups and environment would favor the Bears, who beat the Eagles at Philadelphia's Lincoln Financial Field earlier in the year. Atlanta was a missed field goal from less than 30 yards from being swept by the Saints in 2010. I would never bet the farm, because the Falcons are an excellent team, but I think that the Saints would win a matchup with the Falcons, regardless of home field.

Still hanging on to the caboose of the train?

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In the event of a Packers first round win, I think that a Packers at Falcons contest is a coin toss. Atlanta would be at home, so if someone put a gun to my head and made me pick, I would lean toward the Falcons. The Saints at Bears possibility is a head scratcher. The Saints have a long track record of misery at Soldier Field and have never won there in the postseason. However, I also think that this Saints team, unlike the other two playoff games, is better than the Bears. The Saints are more stable at quarterback with Drew Brees, as opposed to Jay Cutler of the Bears. The Saints have far superior receivers. And the Saints are better equipped to stop the run than they were last season (truly the key to beating this Bears team). However, the Bears defensive front seven is fierce and the Saints are missing their two best running tailbacks, Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory. If I have to make a pick, I would pick the Bears if this scenario unfolded but, again, nothing would surprise me.

I haven't lost you yet, have I?

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With the aforementioned stated, here are the most likely 2010 NFC Championship Game possibilities:

• Saints at Falcons - Advantage: Saints (see above)
• Eagles at Falcons - Advantage Eagles.... Expect Mike Vick to play like a man possessed if he has an opportunity to advance his team to a Super Bowl against his former team, the Falcons, in Atlanta.
• Bears at Falcons - Advantage Falcons.... I think the Bears offense struggles in hostile road conditions, especially indoors.
• Saints at Bears - Advantage Bears (see above)
• Packers at Bears - Advantage Packers.... This is the NFL's longest running, oldest rivalry. The records can be thrown out of the window for this matchup as well. If the Packers are playing well enough to beat Philadelphia and Atlanta on the road, I believe that their confidence and level of play will be more than the Bears can handle.
• Packers at Saints - Advantage Saints.... No way do the Saints drop the NFC Championship game in the Superdome against an opponent, in the Packers, without a strong running game. The Saints only Achilies heel on defense has, occasionally, been stopping the run and the Packers will have difficulty exploiting that weakness. Throw in the raucous Who Dat Nation and the Packers are packed and the Cheeseheads will be melted.

AFC Playoffs

The AFC playoff seedings are as follows:

1. New England Patriots (14-2)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
3. Indianapolis Colts (10-6)
4. Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
5. Baltimore Ravens (12-4)
6. New York Jets (11-5)

The Colts simply have too many injuries and are missing too many parts to outduel a healthy Jets team that finished the regular season with three strong performances. The Colts' only hope is that Jets Head Coach Rex Ryan, whose defenses in Baltimore and New York have never beaten Peyton Manning when Manning plays the entire game, is so stubborn that he thinks he can beat Manning without adjusting the defensive strategy against him. That is not impossible, but how stubborn can one coach, as smart as Rex Ryan, be?

This would leave the AFC with two EXTREMELY compelling second round matchups between two pairs of heated division rivals. Assuming both road teams win in the first round, the Patriots would host the Jets for a third and final time this season, at Foxboro, determining who the true king of the AFC East is. AFC North rivals Pittsburgh and Baltimore would play at Pittsburgh's Heinz Field. The Patriots simply do not (well almost) lose playoff games at home. The Jets were obliterated there in the regular season and as many yards as the Patriots' defense gives up, I do not see Mark Sanchez having the sky and the stars parting for him and having a much better performance than he had in December.

I cannot make a pick between the Ravens and Steelers. The pros and cons could not weigh out much more evenly between two playoff teams that are almost a mirror image of one another. The Steelers will be at home and have slightly stronger counterparts to the Ravens safety Ed Reed and quarterback Joe Flacco in Troy Polamolu and Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers are also at home. So, using the "gun to my head" standard, again, I would pick Pittsburgh. This may be the most memorable game of the 2010 postseason.

I think the following AFC Championship Game matchups are the most probable:

• Steelers at Patriots - Advantage: Patriots.... They have appeared, over the last 30 plus years, to be all but invincible at home in the playoffs. Would a Steelers win be impossible? No. Are the Steelers a better all-around team? Possibly. Will I bet against Tom Brady at home in favor of Roethlisberger? Never/
• Ravens at Patriots - Advantage: Ravens.... Note my repeated use of hedging words like "all but" and "almost" when discussing the Patriots invincibility at Foxboro in January. The Ravens are the "all but". Last season, the Ravens handed the Patriots their first home playoff loss in 32 years (Houston Oilers, 12/31/1978). The Ravens possess the same advantages while the Patriots weaknesses are more amplified. Ravens running back Ray Rice is a beast who is very difficult to contain once he builds up a head of steam after a string of good carries. The Patriots are not particularly strong against the run. In addition, New England does not have the deep threat it had in Randy Moss last season. One of the few, tiny, chinks in the Ravens' defensive armor is the downfield coverage of its secondary late in games. The Patriots do not have their big weapon to exploit this opportunity as they had the past three years. Patriots fans should send motivational Tweets to Chiefs and Steelers players because "Brady, you have a problem," if the Raves advance to the AFC Championship Game. 

Brady and the Patriots will be nice and warm in chilly Foxboro. 5

Got all that? Strap up, Hat Trick readers! It is going to be a wild ride. Get your popcorn ready!

Don't forget to vote in the fan polls!

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